Is the swine flu a threat? [Archive]

The_Absolute

Apr25-09, 11:12 AM

The CDC doesn't seem to indicate taking extreme measures.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/24/swine.flu/

The new strain of swine flu has resisted some antiviral drugs.
Health Library

* MayoClinic.com: Influenza (flu)

The CDC is working with health officials in California and Texas and expects to find more cases, Schuchat said.

A pandemic is defined as: a new virus to which everybody is susceptible; the ability to readily spread from person to person; and the capability of causing significant disease in humans, said Dr. Jay Steinberg, an infectious disease specialist at Emory University Hospital Midtown in Atlanta. The new strain of swine flu meets only one of the criteria: novelty.

History indicates that flu pandemics tend to occur once every 20 years or so, so we're due for one, Steinberg said.

Approximately how many people die from these flu pandemics? Is this swine flu actually more dangerous/deadly than the Avian flu? Are the two somehow related?

Moonbear

Apr25-09, 02:45 PM

Nothing I'm reading so far indicates that this will be any worse than other "severe" strains of flu. Likely the same general concepts apply, that the most vulnerable will be the elderly, the very young (infants and toddlers) and the immuno-compromised. It says everyone is susceptible, but doesn't mean everyone will be exposed, catch it, or be worse off than if they managed to catch any other strain of flu that would just leave them feeling really horrible for a few days.

The only particularly notable thing about this strain, and what it sounds like caught the CDC's attention, is that it's spreading outside the usual flu season. The flu season is usually over by now, but it seems this strain is still spreading.

Edit: Strike that...it seems it is affecting otherwise healthy adults
Most of Mexico’s dead were young, healthy adults, and none were over 60 or under 3 years old, the World Health Organization said. That alarms health officials because seasonal flus cause most of their deaths among infants and bedridden elderly people, but pandemic flus — like the 1918 Spanish flu, and the 1957 and 1968 pandemics — often strike young, healthy people the hardest.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/world/americas/26mexico.html?ref=world

Still, it seems to remain only a small number of cases and a small number of deaths, so it may be like all the panic about SARS, which was quickly contained and controlled and didn't turn into the huge pandemic everyone feared. Modern knowledge about disease transmission may help prevent such large scale pandemics when a new virus strain is detected sufficiently early to focus on prevention rather than treatment.

hypatia

Apr25-09, 06:08 PM

We got word here around April 5, from Canada, the blood samples sent there tested positive for Swine Influenza A/H1N1. The finding of elements, three animal strains and one human strain suggests that it developed by genetic re-assortment rather than a direct mutation.
Its migrant worker season, I would advise us all to maintain the same standards{wash hands often, ect.} as we do during the hight of flu season. I'm not sure its in the news yet, but cases have now seen in New York, Kansas, and Missouri. So far all USA cases have been mild, and are responding well to normal flu medications.

The_Absolute

Apr25-09, 06:56 PM

How is this new virus transmitted?

hypatia

Apr25-09, 08:29 PM

From respiratory droplets, which are expelled from the respiratory tract during coughing or sneezing. So standing with in 2 feet of a person with the virus, who is coughing/sneezing with out covering the mouth/nose, is a good way to get it.They{the droplets} don't remain suspended in the air, so most people contact them from a surface with their hands, followed by touching the nose or mouth.

signerror

Apr25-09, 09:34 PM

Many posts by public health experts at Effect Measure (part of the Scienceblogs network organized by Seed magazine):

http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/swine_flu/

Dedicated CDC page:

http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/

Recent news:

Mexico Takes Powers to Isolate Cases of Swine Flu (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/world/americas/26mexico.html)
“My government will not delay one minute to take all the necessary measures to deal with this epidemic,” Mr. Calderón said in Oaxaca State during the opening of a new hospital, which he said will set aside an area for anyone who might be affected by the new swine flu strain that has already killed as many as 68 people in Mexico and sickened more than 1,000 others. Most of the cases were reported in the center of the country, but there were other cases in pockets to the north and south.

Students Fall Ill in New York, and Swine Flu Is Likely Cause (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/world/americas/26flu.html?hp)
Tests show that eight students at a Queens high school are likely to have contracted the human swine flu virus that has struck Mexico and a small number of other people in the United States, health officials in New York City said yesterday.

I invite the moderators to edit this post at will, to put anything they see as relevant here in this first post of the thread.

signerror

Apr25-09, 09:36 PM

You know, someone once told me that the developed world will never have a pandemic, not until pigs will fly. Well, swine flu.

signerror

Apr25-09, 09:48 PM

The first case was seen in Mexico on April 13. The outbreak coincided with the President Barack Obama’s trip to Mexico City on April 16. Obama was received at Mexico’s anthropology museum in Mexico City by Felipe Solis, a distinguished archeologist who died the following day from symptoms similar to flu, Reforma newspaper reported. The newspaper didn’t confirm if Solis had swine flu or not.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEsNownABJ6Q&refer=home

:eek:

signerror

Apr25-09, 09:50 PM

CDC twitter:

http://twitter.com/CDCemergency

Ivan Seeking

Apr26-09, 02:16 AM

Who remembers the 1975 outbreak? Back when that hit and everyone was talking about a possible pandemic, I read about the 1918 outbreak.

Just a bit of perspective.

Phrak

Apr26-09, 02:36 AM

I live in Arizona, and I've been hearing all the news about the new swine flu outbreaks in Mexico and in California/Texas. If the worst case scenario with this virus were to occur, how many people would approximately die from this? Hundreds of thousands? Millions? Hundreds of Millions? Billions perhaps? What is the kill rate of this virus? Could it threaten the safety of the entire human species? Will I be safe if I stay in my house and stockpile extremely large quantities of food and water?

Are you an infant, over the age or 65? Do you have chronic pulmonary disorder?

Didn't think so.

NeoDevin

Apr26-09, 02:42 AM

Does mexico have universal flu vaccine? Does it help with this strain?

TheStatutoryApe

Apr26-09, 03:02 AM

Its apparently gotten here to California. Last I heard doctors weren't too terribly worried buy advised caution and a visit to the doctor if you have flu symptoms.

drankin

Apr26-09, 03:43 AM

I hope this doesn't turn out to be THE bug we've all been told is due to hit the human race.

signerror

Apr26-09, 03:43 AM

NZ Quarantines 25 People Amid Swine Flu Alert (http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/04/26/world/AP-Swine-Flu-World.html?_r=1)
WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) -- Twenty-five students and teachers in New Zealand, some with flu-like symptoms, were quarantined and tested for swine flu after returning from a trip to Mexico, officials said Sunday, as Asia stepped up surveillance for the deadly virus.

At least 81 people have died from severe pneumonia caused by a flu-like illness in Mexico, according to the World Health Organization, which declared the virus a public health emergency of ''pandemic potential.''

signerror

Apr26-09, 03:47 AM

Does mexico have universal flu vaccine? Does it help with this strain?

According to the CDC, there is no vaccine effective against this strain. However, antivirals may be effective:

Is there a vaccine for swine flu?
Vaccines are available to be given to pigs to prevent swine influenza. There is no vaccine to protect humans from swine flu. The seasonal influenza vaccine will likely help provide partial protection against swine H3N2, but not swine H1N1 viruses.
http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/key_facts.htm

Are there medicines to treat swine flu?
Yes. CDC recommends the use of oseltamivir or zanamivir for the treatment and/or prevention of infection with these swine influenza viruses. Antiviral drugs are prescription medicines (pills, liquid or an inhaler) that fight against the flu by keeping flu viruses from reproducing in your body. If you get sick, antiviral drugs can make your illness milder and make you feel better faster. They may also prevent serious flu complications. For treatment, antiviral drugs work best if started soon after getting sick (within 2 days of symptoms).
http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/swineflu_you.htm

Waiting for an expert to expand on this answer.

Ivan Seeking

Apr26-09, 03:53 AM

I hope this doesn't turn out to be THE bug we've all been told is due to hit the human race.

I think the fact that we've already seen mild cases pretty much kills that concern.

Moridin

Apr26-09, 06:59 AM

In the 1918 pandemic, a lot of those who died where healthy adults, because it is thought that in previous decade or so, similar, but less severe, influenza strains provided partial protection against the 1918 pandemic.

http://mitworld.mit.edu/video/323/
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/60816/laurie-garrett/the-next-pandemic

Normally, of course, people with weaker immune systems are more susceptible to these kinds of influenza.

Is influenza a potential threat to all of humanity? Of course. The estimated deathtoll from the 1918 pandemic is anywhere from 20-100 million, mostly due to the very sparse record from the Soviet Union (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692)

The question is not so much whether there will be another pandemic, but when.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8153259847548931048 (educational video from Spokane Regional Health District)

Count Iblis

Apr26-09, 08:30 AM

There is now an outbreak in New Zealand. I think that what you'll see is that there will be reported outbreaks first in the more developed countries, and everyone will wonder how the virus got to there from Mexico and then a week later we'll hear about large number of cases in less developed countries in Africa, because in these countries they won't notice much if just a handful people get a flu.

So, all the while the virus was already spreading from such less developed countries instead of directly from Mexico.

Borek

Apr26-09, 08:38 AM

Are you an infant, over the age or 65? Do you have chronic pulmonary disorder?

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_04_24/en/index.html

The majority of these cases have occurred in otherwise healthy young adults. Influenza normally affects the very young and the very old, but these age groups have not been heavily affected in Mexico.

So don't count on being young and healthy.

Count Iblis

Apr26-09, 09:02 AM

I've read that when a new pandemic virus arises, the immune system is slow to detect it in your body. Then, when your immune system does finally react, that reaction is the strongest in younger people, because the immune system is operating at maximum strength and that maximum strength is stronger if you are between 20 and 40.

This immune response is then so strong that it damages the lungs. Then fluids leak into the lungs and you suffocate to death.

FireSky86

Apr26-09, 11:38 AM

Read the book The Hot Zone and you will see why the CDC is taking this seriously.

Pretty scary stuff, the Influenza that is.

Phrak

Apr26-09, 01:38 PM

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_04_24/en/index.html

In the US,
All seven confirmed cases had mild Influenza-Like Illness (ILI), with only one requiring brief hospitalization.

It doesn't sound like anyone has much to get excited about, with the exception of the CDC who are paid to get excited.

Ivan Seeking

Apr26-09, 01:48 PM

In the 1918 pandemic, a lot of those who died where healthy adults, because it is thought that in previous decade or so, similar, but less severe, influenza strains provided partial protection against the 1918 pandemic.

Last night I heard it reported that this is actually a hybid of four different flu viruses, so immunization to previous strains may provide some protection for this one. Interestingly, they forgot to mention that those who previously had the flu would also be partially protected.

Is influenza a potential threat to all of humanity? Of course. The estimated deathtoll from the 1918 pandemic is anywhere from 20-100 million, mostly due to the very sparse record from the Soviet Union (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692)

The question is not so much whether there will be another pandemic, but when.

Yes, it is a huge concern, but not something to panic about everytime we have an outbreak. For example, so far all cases here in the US have been mild, which clearly indicates that this not THE pandemic of concern.

Use your heads, take reasonable precautions, and relax. We have been through this sort of thing many, many times, and life will go on. Also, I have bad news: You are all going to die. It doesn't matter whether the flu or a Mack truck gets you. There is no doubt that driving your car poses a greater threat to your life than does the swine flu.

Count Iblis

Apr26-09, 01:57 PM

In the US,

It doesn't sound like anyone has much to get excited about, with the exception of the CDC who are paid to get excited.

In Mexico they have about 80 deaths out of 1300 which is not inconsistent with no deaths out of a dozen or so in the US.

Count Iblis

Apr26-09, 02:09 PM

New suspected cases reported in Canada, Spain, France, and Scotland.

Count Iblis

Apr26-09, 02:46 PM

A reported case in Israel:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gW5lBZvuysU9NLUb7vMhSt2mC3UA

Evo

Apr26-09, 03:22 PM

Once again, the media starts a craze.

People die from the flu every year and it's global.

hypatia

Apr26-09, 04:32 PM

Yep Evo, anywhere from 20 to 30,000 people die of the flu, or flu related illness{co-infections} each year in th USA.

dlgoff

Apr26-09, 04:36 PM

Yep Evo, anywhere from 20 to 30,000 people die of the flu, or flu related illness{co-infections} each year in th USA.
Do you think I will be one of those statistics? I'm currentely working in a regional pseudo-rabies testing lab for the USDA where we test porcine blood daily. Any precautions other than lab coats and gloves?

Count Iblis

Apr26-09, 04:43 PM

Yep Evo, anywhere from 20 to 30,000 people die of the flu, or flu related illness{co-infections} each year in th USA.

These are mostly old and frail people who would have died within a few years anyway. In case of pandemic flu many young people will die.

dlgoff

Apr26-09, 04:44 PM

These are mostly old and frail people who would have died within a few years anyway.
I guess I'm doomed.

Evo

Apr26-09, 04:55 PM

I guess I'm doomed.Poor dl.

Evo

Apr26-09, 05:29 PM

These are mostly old and frail people who would have died within a few years anyway. In case of pandemic flu many young people will die.So far there is no medical evidence that young healthy people are more susceptible to this case of swine flu, nor is there evidence that it is particularly deadly. So far, ALL of the patients in the US have all recovered within a normal time frame of a couple of weeks.

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm58d0424a1.htm

I think the poverty level in Central Mexico and lack of adequate healthcare is more to blaim for the deaths there. We aren't seeing it in the US.

zoobyshoe

Apr26-09, 06:36 PM

This is interesting. Some of the California cases are here in San Diego County, where I live. Yesterday I was out at a street festival and there was a guy with a pet pig on a leash, walking it around like a dog.

Evo

Apr26-09, 06:47 PM

zoobyshoe

Apr26-09, 06:54 PM

Can pigs catch swine flu from humans?
I don't know, but if the pig was worried it was about other, more obvious threats humans pose to swine.

lisab

Apr26-09, 07:05 PM

Read the book The Hot Zone and you will see why the CDC is taking this seriously.

Pretty scary stuff, the Influenza that is.

Yes I read that book, it's very informative. In 1918 we didn't have large numbers of people flying from continent to continent, like we do now. Yet it's terrifying how quickly the pandemic of that time spread (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu).

Evo

Apr26-09, 07:43 PM

Yes I read that book, it's very informative. In 1918 we didn't have large numbers of people flying from continent to continent, like we do now. Yet it's terrifying how quickly the pandemic of that time spread (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu).Actually tuberculosis was a major killer at that time too. The public didn't have access to medical care needed to treat the symptoms.

I found this interesting.

UC Berkeley Demographer Finds Undetected Tuberculosis May Have Been Real Killer in 1918 Flu Epidemic

http://www.library.csi.cuny.edu/dept/history/lavender/389/flu.html

I wonder how much of the population at that time could have already been weakened by undetected tuberculosis and therefore at a greater risk of complications?

Don't forget how primitive medicine was in 1918.

lisab

Apr26-09, 07:52 PM

Actually tuberculosis was a major killer at that time too. The public didn't have access to medical care needed to treat the symptoms.

I found this interesting.

http://www.library.csi.cuny.edu/dept/history/lavender/389/flu.html

I wonder how much of the population at that time could have already been weakened by undetected tuberculosis and therefore at a greater risk of complications?

Don't forget how primitive medicine was in 1918.

Very interesting link. I wonder, does "garden variety" flu pose an increased risk of death to a person with TB?

Evo

Apr26-09, 07:57 PM

Very interesting link. I wonder, does "garden variety" flu pose an increased risk of death to a person with TB?I would suppose. Since so many people came down with the flu in 1918, that the high numbers of people with TB would account for increased deaths makes sense.

Noymer's findings explain a peculiarity of the 1918 pandemic that killed at least 20 million people worldwide.

Normally, the influenza virus is not lethal to young and middle-aged people. Most of its victims are elderly. But in 1918, the typical victim was a man between the ages of 20 and 40, a group that normally has a very low death rate, said Noymer.

In the early 20th century, however, tuberculosis was a major killer of men in that age group, apparently because of transmission in factories where men worked in densely-packed, poorly-ventilated conditions, Noymer said. Men were about 30 percent more likely to die from TB than women were-a pattern closely paralleled during the flu epidemic.

In 1918, men were 35 percent more likely than women to die from flu. Of the 500,000 Americans who died that year, 280,000-300,000 were men.

"This can't be a coincidence," said Noymer. "I think TB is the missing piece of the puzzle. It explains why younger people, especially men, died in such great numbers. Scientists since 1918 have been searching for clues for why the 1918 epidemic was so deadly, especially in middle age. But people did not look at what happened to tuberculosis death rates, not only in the epidemic year, but in the years afterwards."

His findings explain another mystery. Scientists who have attempted to study the gene sequence of the 1918 influenza virus have seen nothing out of the ordinary, nothing to explain the flu's virulence.

"Never before or since have we seen a flu epidemic that was so virulent," said Noymer. "The spread was extremely rapid, as was the development of the infection. Almost everyone who died was gone in two weeks.

"I do believe my finding explains most of the deadliness of the 1918 epidemic. It doesn't prove that, if another strain were to appear, that the U.S. population would be safe, but it strongly suggests that we would fare much better."

Noymer's analysis shows that the 500,000 people who died in 1918 were almost exactly the number who would have been in various stages of disease from TB. Using pre-1918 death rates, Noymer calculated that 500,000 more TB deaths would have occurred between 1918 and 1932 had there never been a flu epidemic.

As a result of the excess death among men in 1918, a healthier male population was left, said Noymer. For years afterward, the life expectancy of men, which usually lagged behind women by six years, moved up to more closely resemble the female pattern. It was this startling change that sparked Noymer's research, when he saw something no demographer had ever noticed before - a precipitous drop in 1919 in the gender differential from six to two years.

"When I saw that," said Noymer, " I said to myself, 'That's the flu!' And, surprise, surprise, it leaves the same mortality patterns on age and sex that TB does."

Co-author on the article is Michel Garenne, senior researcher at the French center for population and development studies, CEPED, Centre français sur la population et le développement.

Phrak

Apr26-09, 08:33 PM

In Mexico they have about 80 deaths out of 1300 which is not inconsistent with no deaths out of a dozen or so in the US.

take it back. And it a significantly larger number of trials.

wildman

Apr26-09, 09:46 PM

Are you an infant, over the age or 65? Do you have chronic pulmonary disorder?

Didn't think so.

According to my wife (who is somewhat involved in all this), this flu has killed mostly young adults in Mexico. She said that young adults in the modern World have less resistance to attack by severe flu since they have suffered less exposure to infectious disease than older people so it is possible to get a bad reaction.

See:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090424/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu

The above article said this:

Epidemiologists are particularly concerned because the only fatalities so far were in young people and adults.

lisab

Apr26-09, 10:22 PM

According to my wife (who is somewhat involved in all this), this flu has killed mostly young adults in Mexico. She said that young adults in the modern World have less resistance to attack by severe flu since they have suffered less exposure to infectious disease than older people so it is possible to get a bad reaction.

See:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090424/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu

The above article said this:

In the past, severe pandemics also seem to have targeted young adults. It's one of the reasons this particular strain of influenza has caught the attention of public health officials worldwide.

donotremember

Apr26-09, 10:25 PM

I was just thinking how cool it would be a buy a gas mask and walk around with it in public to freak people out making them think it was that bad and I was wondering would any reasonably priced mask actually offer protection? I have tried to research this but I can't find much useful information about the extent of protection these masks have against viruses. If I were to get something useful (like a full face mask) how much would it cost and what is the de facto standard model or type?

Evo

Apr26-09, 11:45 PM

In the past, severe pandemics also seem to have targeted young adults.Young adults that possibly already had tuberculosis.

http://www.library.csi.cuny.edu/dept/history/lavender/389/flu.html

wildman

Apr27-09, 12:09 AM

Young adults that possibly already had tuberculosis.

http://www.library.csi.cuny.edu/dept/history/lavender/389/flu.html

Hmm, interesting idea. I'll ask my wife to check if there is any connection.

Phrak

Apr27-09, 12:38 AM

Moridin

Apr27-09, 12:41 AM

jtbell

Apr27-09, 12:13 PM

The swine flu may have turned up in South Carolina. A group of high school students in a town about a half-hour's drive from here went to Cancun for spring break. When they came back last week, several had flu symptoms. Now the state health department is analyzing samples from them.

http://www.wistv.com/Global/story.asp?S=10254240

Count Iblis

Apr27-09, 12:59 PM

I read here:

http://history.howstuffworks.com/middle-ages/black-death5.htm

that the Black Death epidemics may have been caused by some unknown pandemic virus and not by bubonic plague. So, the 1918 pandemic may be a relatively mild pandemic compared to what we could face in the future.

WhoWee

Apr27-09, 01:14 PM

It might be time to close the Mexican border.

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Mexico-Earthquake-Mexico-City-Is-Rocked-By-Earthquake-Sending-Office-Workers-Spilling-Onto-Streets/Article/200904415270304?lpos=World_News_Top_Stories_Header _2&lid=ARTICLE_15270304_Mexico_Earthquake%3A_Mexico_C ity_Is_Rocked_By_Earthquake_Sending_Office_Workers _Spilling_Onto_Streets

Count Iblis

Apr27-09, 01:24 PM

Evo

Apr27-09, 02:12 PM

Could tuberculosis be a factor in the Mexican fatalities?

21 per 100K population, 2008 WHO report. It doesn't seem a significant factor...
http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/global_health/id/tuberculosis/countries/lac/mexico_profile.htmlTB would have been a major issue in 1918. My thoughts on the current deaths in Mexico is the extreme poverty and lack of prompt and appropriate medical care for the people in Central Mexico. Most flu related deaths are due to secondary infections, such as pneumonia.

atyy

Apr27-09, 02:38 PM

I suspect that it is too late for that. Note also that you only hear about cases outside of Mexico in developed countries (as I predicted earlier inthis thread). This is not because there aren't any cases in, say, Africa, but because in Africa they won't sound the alarm if a few people get a fever.

So, far all we know, there may be hundreds of cases in Africa and then it may spread from there to the rest of the world.

I wonder if the screening methods set up in some parts of asia will be of any help? Last time I passed through Hong Kong I saw they had some equipment in place at the airport, presumably set up during SARS.

WhoWee

Apr27-09, 02:50 PM

Robert Gibbs is taking questions regarding Obama's recent visit to Mexico. Reporters are trying to determine if Mexico warned of an outbreak prior to the visit. Apparently, the President might have shaken hands with someone who was infected.

Obama IS NOT SICK...not the issue.

ray b

Apr27-09, 06:07 PM

are the masks any good at stoping the virus
are not virus too small for a simple mask to stop

Borek

Apr27-09, 06:17 PM

Mask stops respiratory droplets with virus.

atyy

Apr27-09, 07:21 PM

are the masks any good at stoping the virus
are not virus too small for a simple mask to stop

For SARS the N95 mask was known to stop the virus and was recommended as a public safety measure in several countries. I don't know about this virus, but one web site is advertising the same mask as a "swine flu mask": http://www.eonenet.com/sars.htm.

Ivan Seeking

Apr28-09, 10:37 AM

Do those of us who were vaccinated against the swine flu in '76 have resistance to today's virus?

The_Absolute

Apr28-09, 11:09 AM

What are the odds of this disease outbreak being a natural occurance? What are the odds of a major earthquake hitting the virus epicenter shortly after it's outbreak?

mcknia07

Apr28-09, 11:13 AM

I have heard alot about this in the past few days. It seems pretty big, but why is it really any more different than the normal flu? (Besides the fact that I know it's a mix of like 2 flus)

Monique

Apr28-09, 12:14 PM

Do those of us who were vaccinated against the swine flu in '76 have resistance to today's virus? The swine virus is a fast-evolving virus, like the human influenza virus. Even if the vaccine was against the same type as is going around now (H1N1), the chances that you would have a significant protection are pretty slim.

jreelawg

Apr28-09, 05:14 PM

ray b

Apr28-09, 05:20 PM

second question
tooo many people moving around faster then ever now
so a virus can travel faster

ray b

Apr28-09, 05:27 PM

jreelawg

Apr28-09, 06:30 PM

do the native americans have a somewhat less efficient immune system?
as far more mexicans are of a high % native stock
and a very high % of natives died off after contact in the historic records

did the 1918 flu kill more native then euro people in mexico or other places
with high native populations?
how did our own native population do in the 1918 flu in the USA?

The spanish flu pandemic had an estimated 2.5% global mortality rate. However some places had mortality rates as high as 22%. I'm not sure what significance can be attributed to specific factors. If this new pandemic is as bad as the 1918 one, we may see a very low mortality rate in places like the U.S., very high mortality rates in third world countries, and a relatively low global average mortality rate with a significant total global death toll.

CRGreathouse

Apr28-09, 06:32 PM

What are the odds of this disease outbreak being a natural occurance?

Very high, I'd peg it much closer to 100% than 99%. Flu outbreaks are common, viruses mutate easily, the swine flu has hit before, and there's no obvious financial or religious motive in hitting Mexico.

What are the odds of a major earthquake hitting the virus epicenter shortly after it's outbreak?

Lets see. The USGS says that there are about 1471 (http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/eqstats.html) earthquakes a year of magnitude 5 or greater. Assuming those are spread evenly across the earth's land area (they're not!), you'd expect about 19.5 (http://www.google.com/search?q=1972550/148940000*1471) to hit Mexico yearly. Let's say the time period in question is two weeks -- roughly how long this has been going on. The expected number in that timeframe is 0.75, so the Poisson distribution gives probability of roughly 52%.

jreelawg

Apr28-09, 06:40 PM

Very high, I'd peg it much closer to 100% than 99%. Flu outbreaks are common, viruses mutate easily, the swine flu has hit before, and there's no obvious financial or religious motive in hitting Mexico.

I'm still not quite clear though how this virus came into being. Was it just a mutation of one virus, or a hybrid of 4 separate strains. I don't understand how these things work. Is there a difference between a swine flu mutating so that it can affect humans, and a swine flu, an avian flu, and two strains of human flu crossing into one?

jreelawg

Apr28-09, 06:50 PM

"Reverse genetics

Avian Flu vaccine development by Reverse genetics techniques. Courtesy: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
A technique called reverse genetics allows scientists to manipulate the genomes of influenza viruses and to transfer genes between viral strains. The technique allows the rapid generation of seed viruses for vaccine candidates that exactly match the anticipated epidemic strain. By removing or modifying certain virulence genes, reverse genetics also can be used to convert highly pathogenic influenza viruses into vaccine candidates that are safer for vaccine manufacturers to handle."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_research

Is it possible that a genetically engineered vaccine could accidentally be released causing an outbreak?

jreelawg

Apr28-09, 07:01 PM

... there's no obvious financial or religious motive in hitting Mexico.

If we had another pandemic similar to the 1918 pandemic, it would be appropriate for nearly every person on earth to buy doses of tamiflu. That would be a very substantial amount of profit for vaccine makers.

WhoWee

Apr28-09, 07:50 PM

I wonder how much the decision not to close the borders will cost us...in health care costs related to treating people fleeing Mexico into Texas thru California?

russ_watters

Apr28-09, 08:11 PM

What are the odds of this disease outbreak being a natural occurance? What are the odds of a major earthquake hitting the virus epicenter shortly after it's outbreak? Very small. Of course, the odds of a small to medium-sized earthquake (specifically, it is labeled "moderate" on the Richter scale) happening near (not in) an earthquake-prone city in any given month are pretty reasonable.

The media may have reported it as a "major earthquake", but that is just to sell newspapers. The reality is that it was barely strong enough to get most people in an earthquake-prone area out of bed.

Phrak

Apr28-09, 08:38 PM

Can anyone explain the mechanism of how 4 viruses come together into one? Is it rare for this happen?

This outbreak (classified as an H1N1) is subtype of influenza virus A. New strains of influenza A occur through mutation or reassortment.

The genetic code of the influenza virus consists of eight segments of RNA. When a virus infects a cell, it makes profuse copies of all RNA segments. These then reassemble in units having eight distinct segments each. But when more than one virus infects a cell, the recombined units of eight segments will consist of daughters from both viruses (Two to the 8th possible varieties).

Through the process of reassortment, the current variant of H1N1 came about, as a mixture of human, swine and avian influenza components.

Phrak

Apr28-09, 09:02 PM

In early news (such as it is) MSNBC reports that the first known carrier--and perhaps originator, of this current influenza may have been a boy living in La Gloria, Sonora, Mexico.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30461857/

dimensionless

Apr28-09, 09:09 PM

are the masks any good at stoping the virus
are not virus too small for a simple mask to stop

The N95 (and I believe the N100) masks have measurable efficacy. I'm not sure that they are "good" at stopping the virus, but yes, they are helpful.

buffordboy23

Apr28-09, 10:31 PM

So I see that we are currently in phase 4 of the pandemic alert, according to WHO: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html

Anyone have knowledge concerning past phase 4 alerts and the subsequent events that played out?

buffordboy23

Apr28-09, 10:45 PM

The_Absolute

Apr28-09, 11:13 PM

With all the extremely unusual and sometimes simultaneous occurances of virus outbreaks and natural disasters, it almost makes me wonder if these events are literally being caused by some scientifically anomalous, perhaps even paranormal force.

Read the book of revelation.

lisab

Apr28-09, 11:21 PM

Here's an article (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-04/29/content_11276474.htm) about two deaths in the U.S. (California) that may be linked to the swine flu. It says

"In Los Angeles, public health officials were investigating two recent deaths that are possibly related to swine flu, and would be the first reported deaths in the United States from the outbreak if confirmed."

I guess we will find more out tomorrow. If confirmed, I am curious to know the ages of the victims. That's so strange that the virus is currently most harmful to the 20-50 age group (at least in Mexico); it has always been the opposite to my knowledge.

Yes, usually young adults don't die from normal flu. But that's not the case with pandemic flus...for example, the 1918 pandemic:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/70/W_curve.png

Although Evo's previous posts about the influence of TB may give some explanation for the increase in deaths among young people.

Edit: Graph is from Wiki -- "The difference between the influenza mortality age-distributions of the 1918 epidemic and normal epidemics. Deaths per 100,000 persons in each age group, United States, for the interpandemic years 1911–1917 (dashed line) and the pandemic year 1918 (solid line)."

Moridin

Apr29-09, 03:08 AM

Moridin

Apr29-09, 03:51 AM

Second, we seem to have been anticipating or at least concerned about a possible devastating avian flu outbreak. What is the basis for this concern? What in recent times happened to make the risk of mutated flu greater?

Humans are just one part of our general ecology in which we live, and in fact, we are food to literally billions of microbes. The basis for our concern about global pandemics is that viruses mutates continuously and has the ability given the right mutations to spread between species. This is not something extraordinary, but is a constant factor in the history of life and humanity. We have influenza viruses who spread between humans and humans and between other species. Genetic changes can occur that makes the virus able to spread between other animals and humans. Further changes can allow it to spread between humans and other humans. At this moment, we are between these two situations: non-human animal to human transmission has been confirmed, but no substantial human-to-human transmissions has been found. The thing to understand is that global pandemics are not rare occurrences -- they happen about once ever thirty years on average, but it is hard to impossible to predict when the next pandemic will happen. As always the question is not if a pandemic will occur, but when.

Third, does anyone know why common forms of the flu happen every year, but deadly forms like the 1918 form die out? Is this new virus going to come and go quickly, or will it be something new that people get every year?

There are a few important differences between seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza. There is a constant evolutionary arms race between influenza viruses and their hosts. Both "come up with" new exploitations and defenses against each other and because the mutations of the viruses are so rapid they can exploit individuals who had developed immunity to earlier strains. At best, the immunity to earlier strains can only provide a partial protection, if that, against newer strains. This is why seasonal influenza does not "go away".

Now why does dangerous pandemics like the 1918 influenza pandemic "die out"? It is a very good question. During an epidemic or pandemic of any form of pathogen, the virulence of the of the pathogen will decline over time as a general rule (provided there is no increased spread trade-off to high virulence). This is because pathogens who kill their hosts rapidly will have less opportunity to spread than others and this is of course the key factor in the evolution of pathogens. This means that after a few waves of the pathogen, you are either dead, not infected or you have survived because you had before or have gained some immunological defenses. There are simply very few avenues left for the pathogen other than to fade in the microbial background noise or run out of viable carriers. Naturally, you can "exterminate" the pathogen as well by issuing world-wide vaccinations and so on. The black death and small pox are two examples of this, respectively.

Fourth, why is this virus rampant when it isn't flu season? If this were to happen in the winter would it be much worse? And are we now going to have to worry about the flu year round?

Pandemic influenza and seasonal influenza are not the same thing. As the name suggests, seasonal influenza is seasonal, whereas pandemic influenza is not.

Count Iblis

Apr29-09, 08:58 AM

mcknia07

Apr29-09, 09:06 AM

buffordboy23

Apr29-09, 09:44 AM

Although Evo's previous posts about the influence of TB may give some explanation for the increase in deaths among young people.

I read Evo's article (post #41) and found it very interesting. I wonder if the people had latent or active TB initially during the 1918 pandemic. The article didn't mention it. If a majority of the 500,000 deaths are related to TB infections as well, then this statistic seems like it's too large to assume active TB (at least according to current data of active TB cases), but rather that some trigger kicked the latent TB into active TB. Latent TB currently affects a decent-sized population (about 10-15 million people) in the U.S. (http://healthlink.mcw.edu/article/1031002764.html).

A link to first swine flu related death in U.S.: http://edition.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/29/swine.flu.international/

Count Iblis

Apr29-09, 10:17 AM

Many young and healthy people died within two days or so of becoming ill in 1918. TB doesn't kill you that fast.

buffordboy23

Apr29-09, 10:33 AM

TB doesn't kill you that fast.

I was more concerned with the sufficient weakening of the immune system. What's the time span for that? I can't seem to find any info online about it yet. Wikipedia says that it's slow dividing bacteria (about 16 to 20 hours).

cardboard fox

Apr29-09, 10:43 AM

hey all.. in my biology class tomorrow we are dissecting pigs is this a risk???

Borek

Apr29-09, 10:49 AM

hey all.. in biology class tomorrow we are dissecting pigs is this a risk???

No, but it can be yummy. Don't forget salt, pepper and garlic. Some hot stuff won't hurt.

And beer.

WhoWee

Apr29-09, 10:52 AM

I wonder how much the decision not to close the borders will cost us...in health care costs related to treating people fleeing Mexico into Texas thru California?

The baby that died was reportedly from Mexico City. The family isn't showing any signs of illness.

Apparently, the baby was first treated at a Brownsville, TX hospital, then transported to a Houston, TX hospital.

http://www.valleycentral.com/news/news_story.aspx?id=293340
"By Sergio Chapa
Wednesday, April 29, 2009 at 9:25 a.m.

Health officials at a press conference in Houston have given a timeline in the swine flu death of a 23-month-old baby.

The toddler is from Mexico but became ill while visiting with family in Brownsville.

The child is believed is to be the first person to die from swine flu in the United States.

The disease had killed more than 159 deaths in Mexico and infected hundreds more.

During a Wednesday morning press conference, the following details emerged:

April 4th - Baby and family arrive in Brownsville

April 8th - Baby becomes ill with flu-like symptoms

April 13th - Baby admitted to Valley Baptist Medical Center in Brownsville

April 14th - Baby transfered to a hospital in Houston

April 27th - Baby died in hospital.

Action 4 News will post more information as it becomes available."

While this family arrives over 3 weeks ago, they chose to seek medical attention in Texas, rather than return to Mexico. The decision not to close the border will potentially cost US taxpayers a lot of money (and health care resources).

More importantly, I hope US citizens (with insurance) are given preferential treatment over (yes I'll say it) ILLEGAL ALIENS.

Close the border.

WhoWee

Apr29-09, 11:32 AM

Mexico has a health care system
http://www.medtogo.com/mexico-health-care-system.html

"Mexico’s Health Care System in Plain English

Mexico fosters three unequal, yet parallel systems of health care. There are six government-run social security institutions that provide care for approximately 50 million of Mexico’s gainfully employed. The uninsured poor, comprised of about 40 million Mexicans, receive limited health-care benefits administered by the Ministry of Health of Mexico. The private sector, which represents about 3 million Mexicans, is comprised of individuals whose health-care funding is met through private insurance carriers. We will limit our discussion to the two health organizations that are accessible to travelers and expatriates living in Mexico.
Social Security

The largest and most notable social security organization is the Mexican Social Security Institute or IMSS. The IMSS is available to foreigners residing in Mexico and is funded by contributions from employers, beneficiaries, and the Mexican Government. (Click here to learn how to apply for IMSS health insurance.)

Hospitals and clinics that provide medical care for Social Security recipients vary in quality. While major urban institutions may provide adequate to advanced tertiary care, rural hospitals often have outdated equipment, long waits, and inadequate staffing. MedToGo did not review Social Security doctors or hospitals for this guide, so if you choose to see an IMSS doctor, you will have to do your own research. Please note that in the IMSS system, you cannot choose your primary care provider. Therefore, your access to care (and hospitals) is regulated by your assigned physician.

Many of the doctors we have listed in this guide see patients in an IMSS clinic as well as a private practice setting. One way to circumvent the IMSS referral process is to see a doctor with IMSS privileges in private practice. Then, have that doctor refer you to the best IMSS facility for care (through the IMSS system). Social Security costs for medical care and prescription drugs are far lower than in the United States.
The Private Sector

In general, private medical care in Mexico is preferred; up to 25 percent of patients with Social Security benefits or no coverage at all prefer to pay out of pocket for private care. Since health care in Mexico is generally much less expensive than in North America, cash payment is still an affordable option. The cost for a general medical consultation may begin as low as US$20 (of course, costs rise in major cities and tourist destinations). Very few Mexicans have private health insurance, but this sector is growing.

Private hospitals in Guadalajara, Monterrey, and Mexico City offer some of the most advanced tertiary care centers in the world. Tertiary care is advanced care (i.e., cardiovascular evaluation and surgery, neurological evaluation and surgery, orthopedic surgery, hemodialysis, organ transplants, among others) that requires highly specialized skills, technology, and support services. Most of the doctors in these hospitals have had excellent Mexican medical education, and many have trained abroad in Europe or North America.

Be warned: most private hospitals do not accept any form of foreign health insurance, and require cash or credit payment prior to admission or treatment. However, if you are injured or in grave health, a private hospital will attempt to stabilize your condition and then transfer you to a government or Social Security hospital.

There are also very good medical centers in many smaller cities frequented by tourists. Private “hospitals” or clinics in rural destinations tend to be owned by groups of local physicians with varying levels of training. Their facilities and technology are typically outdated, but are adequate to manage minor illnesses.

Patients with advanced care requirements should always be transferred to one of the tertiary medical centers listed in the Mexico: Health and Safety Travel Guide. You should consider any hospital with a 4/5 or 5/5 MedToGo rating as advanced (see book for rating system criteria). Because of the great variability in physicians and hospitals, we highly recommend that you use a reference such as this guide prior to consulting with a private, rural physician.
Ministry of Health

Nearly half of Mexico’s 100 million inhabitants have no health insurance benefits at all. Their preventive care is limited to vaccinations and oral rehydration programs for children. Care in this sector is extremely limited. For example, infant mortality is ten times higher here than in the parallel private sector. Red Cross or Cruz Roja hospitals service the poor and are accessible to anyone in Mexico regardless of their ability to pay. We cannot recommend that travelers seek care in this sector unless there are no other options."

Borek

Apr29-09, 11:39 AM

While this family arrives over 3 weeks ago, they chose to seek medical attention in Texas, rather than return to Mexico.

Do you have kids?

turbo-1

Apr29-09, 11:41 AM

No, but it can be yummy. Don't forget salt, pepper and garlic. Some hot stuff won't hurt.

And beer.Unfortunately, in the US fetal pigs are usually marinaded in formaldehyde or something similar. Maybe the non-toxic preservatives are tasty, but I doubt it.

Now if they were going to dissect some suckling pigs that had been preserved in beer, vinegar, salt, brown sugar, garlic, onion, and hot sauce, I'd fire up a Hibachi and grade all the lab-work.

The_Absolute

Apr29-09, 11:41 AM

Have there been any reported/confirmed cases of swine flu in Arizona?

WhoWee

Apr29-09, 12:06 PM

Do you have kids?

There are 7 people in my house, including my 4 children and their insulin-dependent grandfather. I have very good private health insurance and want to make sure health care will be available to us if this turns ugly.

I've waited in the emergency room, under normal circumstances, with a broken wrist and waited behind people without insurance who were there for cold symptoms.

Close the border and send medicine to Mexico. Keep our medical resources for Americans first...that's my point.

buffordboy23

Apr29-09, 12:10 PM

Have there been any reported/confirmed cases of swine flu in Arizona?

Yes. See http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/ for continual updates on confirmed cases in the U.S.

Borek

Apr29-09, 12:10 PM

While this family arrives over 3 weeks ago, they chose to seek medical attention in Texas, rather than return to Mexico.

Will you start traveling with your kids when they start to be ill, or will you seek medical assistance immediately?

WhoWee

Apr29-09, 12:18 PM

Will you start traveling with your kids when they start to be ill, or will you seek medical assistance immediately?

If I were in their position, I WOULD DO EXACTLY WHAT THEY DID...couldn't agree with you more.

However, there are 100 million Mexicans (in Mexico) without insurance.

Gov Perry of Texas just declared a State of Emergency.

It's time to close the border.

CRGreathouse

Apr29-09, 12:30 PM

The N95 (and I believe the N100) masks have measurable efficacy. I'm not sure that they are "good" at stopping the virus, but yes, they are helpful.

N95 respirators are excellent at stopping virus-sized materials.* If that were the major concern, they would provide great protection. In fact the risk is not breathing in a single airborne virus but breathing in a droplet of saliva containing viruses. These can get through (if they're really tiny, say a few hundred nanometers**) or possibly even soak through (if big enough).

But the viability of this particular strain is so low that even a dust mask should provide enough protection for people not working directly with infected people, according to the US CDC. (Doctors and others working with patients should wear N95 or N99 respirators.)

* Yes, viruses are far smaller than the pores in a respirator. They're stopped by interception, not impaction: they adhere to the fibres.

** 100 nm is the bad size for respirators: hard to intercept, hard to impact. The failure rate is about 5% for particles of this size (95% stopping power, thus the 95 in "N95"). But most saliva droplets are bigger than this and thus easier to impact.

BoomBoom

Apr29-09, 03:02 PM

The decision not to close the border will potentially cost US taxpayers a lot of money (and health care resources).

More importantly, I hope US citizens (with insurance) are given preferential treatment over (yes I'll say it) ILLEGAL ALIENS.

Close the border.

:rolleyes: The politics discussion is down thataway [V] ....this is a biology forum.

Astronuc

Apr29-09, 03:32 PM

Swine flu spreads in 10 US states, Europe
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090429/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu
The World Health Organization said the outbreak is moving closer to becoming a full-scale pandemic.

Dr. Keiji Fukuda, the organization's top flu expert, told reporters in Geneva that the latest developments are moving the agency closer to raising its pandemic alert to phase 5, indicating widespread human-to-human transmission. That's just one step below level 6, a full-fledged pandemic.
NY has 51 confirmed cases, and several yet to be tested. Many are centered around a private school where one of the classes went on a trip to Mexico.

The concern is that this version of the flu spreads rapidly beyond those exposed to the source, i.e. it's highly transmissible, and perhaps more so than the so-called normal flu, and few people will have immunity to it.

"The disease is not a food-borne illness," Rear Adm. Anne Schuchat, CDC's interim science and public health deputy direct, told the Senate Homeland Security Committee.
. . . .
She said the strain is particularly worrisome because "it's a virus that hasn't been around before. The general population doesn't have immunity from it."

Iron_Brute

Apr29-09, 03:33 PM

CRGreathouse

Apr29-09, 03:43 PM

I'm not sure if this has already been asked, but guessing by the name of the flu I'm sure it has, if you eat pig products i.e. bacon, or ham, are you more susceptible to getting the swine flu.

No. The danger is contact with infected people, especially their saliva (sneeze, kiss, vomit). It's not believed to the transmitted by food at all, certainly not by properly cooked food.

Count Iblis

Apr29-09, 04:28 PM

WHO raises pandemic alert level (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8025931.stm)

The UN's World Health Organization has raised the alert over the spread of swine flu to level five - one short of a full-blown pandemic.

A phase five alert means human-to-human transmission in at least two countries.

BoomBoom

Apr29-09, 05:10 PM

I'm kind of paranoid right now as I usually eat a slice of ham or bacon at least twice a week for breakfast.

Eat your pork and do not be afraid! ...this is not a food-borne pathogen.

gravenewworld

Apr29-09, 06:40 PM

1,000,000 people die from malaria every year. Why isn't the media covering malaria outbreaks?

buffordboy23

Apr29-09, 06:49 PM

Pittsburgh-Area Researcher Tracking Swine Flu Online (http://www.wpxi.com/health/19315326/detail.html):

"Niman is the researcher responsible for a computer-generated map that shows how and where the swine flu is spreading worldwide. He spent his career studying the evolution of viruses.

The map shows instances of suspected and confirmed cases, and its up-to-the-minute tracking of the virus has the government interested in the information it can provide."

Link to map: http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&t=p&msa=0&msid=106484775090296685271.0004681a37b713f6b5950&ll=32.639375,-110.390625&spn=15.738151,25.488281&z=5

jreelawg

Apr29-09, 07:43 PM

"Reflecting heightened concerns that international outbreaks of the swine flu could accelerate, the World Health Organization has increased its global alert status, and some governments are discouraging travel to affected areas. But Dr. Keiji Fukuda, the WHO's assistant director-general, said on Monday that there is little point in imposing travel bans "predominantly because this virus has already spread quite far and at this time, containment is not a feasible operation.""

http://www.voanews.com/english/Science/2009-04-29-voa55.cfm

Evo

Apr29-09, 08:41 PM

I know they are saying that there is only one med that is really helping the "cure" of the swine flu. They have been telling the pharmacies not to hord all the meds, but buy only when it is needed. Is there a home remedy yet, that they know of??There are two medicines that have been suggested as effective for this strain, but my crummy connection will take me too long to look them up.

McKnia, there is no such thing as a "home remedy" for the flu, never has been. What you are thinking of is something that will help relieve minor symptoms such as a cough and fever, or a runny nose.

Phrak

Apr29-09, 08:52 PM

1,000,000 people die from malaria every year. Why isn't the media covering malaria outbreaks?

You tell me.

Evo

Apr29-09, 09:09 PM

1,000,000 people die from malaria every year. Why isn't the media covering malaria outbreaks?Because people at trendy resort hotels in Cancun aren't likely to get it. Who cares what horribly impoverished people in third world countries die from? Yes, this media hype disgusts me.

Phrak

Apr29-09, 09:25 PM

Because people at trendy resort hotels in Cancun aren't likely to get it. Who cares what horribly impoverished people in third world countries die from? Yes, this media hype disgusts me.

Malaria is not news. It is not a changing dynamic, so it isn't news worthy. As such, it isn't a commonly salable product--it could harm their Nielsen ratings. Every once and a while some reporter will manage to make news from no news, or introduce a 'special interest story' but it's not the norm. Next time you watch the news, watch for these. As for the rest of the media, who knowns how much is diseminated on this matter? The mass media is too large.

gravenewworld

Apr29-09, 09:30 PM

You tell me.

Because it happens everyday?

Over 3 billion people are in danger of being infected with malaria. Ya don't hear it about it 24/7.

DaveC426913

Apr29-09, 09:31 PM

Just heard these today. Had to share.

I survived ...
... the snoutbreak.
... the epigdemic.
... farmageddon.

russ_watters

Apr29-09, 09:51 PM

Malaria is not news. It is not a changing dynamic, so it isn't news worthy. As such, it isn't a commonly salable product--it could harm their Nielsen ratings. Every once and a while some reporter will manage to make news from no news, or introduce a 'special interest story' but it's not the norm. Next time you watch the news, watch for these. As for the rest of the media, who knowns how much is diseminated on this matter? The mass media is too large.
That's reasonable, but I'm also disgusted by public and government reactions to these issues. Ie, is it really worth the WHO's time to put effort into swine flu when there are much, much bigger problems out there - especially problems with spectacularly easy solutions?

CRGreathouse

Apr29-09, 10:33 PM

That's reasonable, but I'm also disgusted by public and government reactions to these issues. Ie, is it really worth the WHO's time to put effort into swine flu when there are much, much bigger problems out there - especially problems with spectacularly easy solutions?

Yes. Swine flu is more likely to get funding for the WHO than malaria, so they focus on it.

Phrak

Apr29-09, 10:40 PM

Yes. Swine flu is more likely to get funding for the WHO than malaria, so they focus on it.

Who pays the WHO to do what they are paid to do?

buffordboy23

Apr29-09, 11:42 PM

There are two medicines that have been suggested as effective for this strain, but my crummy connection will take me too long to look them up.

I believe that you are referring to Tamiflu and Relenza.

russ_watters

Apr30-09, 12:29 AM

Who pays the WHO to do what they are paid to do? According to their wiki, it is funded through normal UN operations and voluntary contributions from countries and the public and at the moment the voluntary contributions exceed the set budget.

I'm still not in favor of an international organization with a well-established responsibility following fads for funding. Perhaps they are just doing the best they can with what they have to work with, but this is yet another symptom of people not handling problems correctly. It's a common theme of mine on this forum - people generally agree about what the right thing to do is if they step back and look at it objectively, but in the real world, it doesn't happen that way.

Besides which, if they lost half their funding because they weren't chasing news fads, I bet they'd still save more lives by focusing their smaller resources on the low hanging fruit like malaria. Malaria is easy. It is pathetic that in 2009, a million people die of it a year. [/soapbox]

CRGreathouse

Apr30-09, 12:46 AM

I believe that you are referring to Tamiflu and Relenza.

Yes, those are both effective. But DO NOT take them unless you have the [swine] flu! They are not vaccines, and in fact taking them will lessen or remove their effectiveness if you contract it.

buffordboy23

Apr30-09, 01:22 AM

Yes, those are both effective. But DO NOT take them unless you have the [swine] flu! They are not vaccines, and in fact taking them will lessen or remove their effectiveness if you contract it.

I remember back a few years ago when reading a scientific article (of course, I no longer have the source) about strategic plans should the avian flu become a pandemic. One of the main points was that by using Tamiflu as a prophylactic in hard-hit areas (along with other measures), the disease will spread less severely. One subsequent problem is then supply versus demand. Here is link that supports the prophylactic use of Tamiflu: http://www.pandemictoolkit.com/about-tamiflu/about-roletamifluplay.aspx.

I agree that taking it as a prophylactic for long durations (because if the swine flu becomes a pandemic it is likely to persist for months) will decrease it's overall effectiveness later.

hypatia

Apr30-09, 02:25 AM

Because people at trendy resort hotels in Cancun aren't likely to get it.

We had several confirmed cases here in Michigan, one was a 18 yr old high school student who had taken a trip to Cancun, returned 10 days ago..

Astronuc

Apr30-09, 08:25 AM

1,000,000 people die from malaria every year. Why isn't the media covering malaria outbreaks? Probably because malaria is not a threat in the US or other industrialized nations. It is primarily a problem in sub-Saharan Africa and Brazil, mainly in a band 15N - 20S latitude.

http://www.cdc.gov/malaria/facts.htm
Each year 350–500 million cases of malaria occur worldwide, and over one million people die, most of them young children in sub-Saharan Africa.

but

1,337 cases of malaria, including 8 deaths, were reported for 2002 in the United States, even though malaria has been eradicated in this country since the early 1950's

Of the 1,337 malaria cases reported for 2002 in the United States, all but five were imported, i.e., acquired in malaria-endemic countries.

Between 1957 and 2003, in the United States, 63 outbreaks of locally transmitted mosquito-borne malaria have occurred; in such outbreaks, local mosquitoes become infected by biting persons carrying malaria parasites (acquired in endemic areas) and then transmit malaria to local residents.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaria

As for the latest variant of swine flu (perhaps now called Mexican swine flu)
The earliest confirmed case of the illness was in the town of La Gloria, Veracruz, Mexico, with 5 year old Édgar Enrique Hernández, considered to possibly be patient zero. Earliest case of swine flu tucked away in Mexico, officials say
http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/swine.flu/index.html

Mexico outbreak traced to 'manure lagoons' at pig farm
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/health/article6182789.ece

Since Veracruz is somewhat distant from places like Acapulco and Cancun, tourists in those areas are less likely to contract the flu, particularly if there are direct flights from Acapulco or Cancun to US airports. On the other hand, traveling through Mexico may increase risk of exposure.

mgb_phys

Apr30-09, 11:00 AM

http://www.dhs.gov/ynews/releases/pr_1241056994692.shtm

"We're also actively monitoring travelers at our land, sea, and air ports. We're watching them for signs of illness, and we have appropriate protocols in place to deal with those who are sick. Anyone exhibiting symptoms is being referred to an isolation room where they can be evaluated by a public health official before proceeding to their destruction."

I'm a little worried - I have hay-fever and I have to visit Houston next week!

gravenewworld

Apr30-09, 11:08 AM

Malaria is not news. It is not a changing dynamic, so it isn't news worthy. As such, it isn't a commonly salable product--it could harm their Nielsen ratings. Every once and a while some reporter will manage to make news from no news, or introduce a 'special interest story' but it's not the norm. Next time you watch the news, watch for these. As for the rest of the media, who knowns how much is diseminated on this matter? The mass media is too large.

Not true at all, traditional quinolines that were once effective are now ineffective against growing pockets of quinoline resistant malaria sprining up in Asia. Considering the fact that malaria infects 300 million people world wide every year, resistance is growing, and also the fact that spending on R&D for malaria pharmaceuticals is very low, we should all be much more worried about malaria right now.

DaveC426913

Apr30-09, 11:09 AM

"We're also actively monitoring travelers at our land, sea, and air ports. We're watching them for signs of illness, and we have appropriate protocols in place to deal with those who are sick. Anyone exhibiting symptoms is being referred to an isolation room where they can be evaluated by a public health official before proceeding to their destruction."
OK, now that's a bit draconian...

jreelawg

Apr30-09, 11:17 AM

They meant destination right?

mgb_phys

Apr30-09, 11:27 AM

They meant destination right?
You would hope so - but this is the DHS!

How long will it take somebody to notice and update the website?

angak001

Apr30-09, 12:03 PM

how many people would approximately die from this? Hundreds of thousands? Millions? Hundreds of Millions? Billions perhaps? What is the kill rate of this virus? Could it threaten the safety of the entire human species? Will I be safe if I stay in my house and stockpile extremely large quantities of food and water?
No the swine flu does not look like a threat at the moment and the swine flu might kill thousands of people before it dies down.
The world has enough drugs to cure more than half the worlds population of this threat so there is not really anything to worry about as far as you are cautious of the people around you when you are in a public place.

lisab

Apr30-09, 12:12 PM

You would hope so - but this is the DHS!

How long will it take somebody to notice and update the website?

:rofl:

They changed it...wow, someone at Homeland Security has a really warped sense of humor - that was hilarious!

Count Iblis

Apr30-09, 12:49 PM

Swine flu will probably decline a bit as summer arrives. It will only cause mild problems just like the 1918 Spanish flu did during the summer. Then, in the fall, just like in 1918, the flu will return and cause big problems.

Flu is contageous before it causes illness. So, if you are infected and you will become ill in a few days from now, you can already spread the disease to others. But this happens more easily in the winter because then you tend to sneeze and cough more if you are not ill. You can have a cold or you can simpy cough/sneeze due to exess mucus in your nose due to simply a reaction to cold weather.

So, when cold weather arrives, you can expect an explosion in the number of flu cases.

Ukitake Jyuushirou

Apr30-09, 01:14 PM

Can anyone explain the mechanism of how 4 viruses come together into one? Is it rare for this happen?

Second, we seem to have been anticipating or at least concerned about a possible devastating avian flu outbreak. What is the basis for this concern? What in recent times happened to make the risk of mutated flu greater?

Third, does anyone know why common forms of the flu happen every year, but deadly forms like the 1918 form die out? Is this new virus going to come and go quickly, or will it be something new that people get every year?

Fourth, why is this virus rampant when it isn't flu season? If this were to happen in the winter would it be much worse? And are we now going to have to worry about the flu year round?

4 viruses? Are you referring to the H1N1 and H5N1 influenza virus? If so it is just 2 strains of virus from the Orthomyxoviridae family. The influenza viruses are divided into 3 groups A, B and C. Usually only influenza A is of concern since it is the one that causes pandemics.

The H in H1N1 refers to haemagglutinin, there are 14 of them (H1-14) and N refers to neuraminidase, there are 9 of them (N1-9). The action of neuraminidase allows virius to elute from red blood cells while the action of haemagglutinin allow the virus to attach itself to the host cell.

Every now and then the avian influenza virus and the human influenza virus come together in a single host and usually it is the pig because their tracheal have sialic acid (SA) receptor alpha 2,3 (for avian influenza virus) and alpha 2,6 (for human influenza virus) in 1:1 ratio so it makes them a very good mixing pot for the virus. When that happens we get what is called an antigenic shift in which RNA segments are swapped in cells infected with 2 different viruses, the virus change to a new subtype (eg H1N1 to H1N2). Antibodies that recognize the old subtype will not recognize the new subtype hence the immune system cannot react to the virus and a major epidemic/pandemic is born...

ViewsofMars

Apr30-09, 01:17 PM

A quote from the April 29, 2009 statement by WHO Director-General, Dr Margaret Chan on swine influenza.

Based on assessment of all available information, and following several expert consultations, I have decided to raise the current level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 4 to phase 5.

Influenza pandemics must be taken seriously precisely because of their capacity to spread rapidly to every country in the world. On the positive side, the world is better prepared for an influenza pandemic than at any time in history.

Preparedness measures undertaken because of the threat from H5N1 avian influenza were an investment, and we are now benefitting from this investment.

For the first time in history, we can track the evolution of a pandemic in real-time.

I thank countries who are making the results of their investigations publicly available. This helps us understand the disease.

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_20090429/en/index.html

A quote from April 29, 2009 transcript of Virtual Press conference with Dr Keiji Fukuda, Assistant Director-General ad. Interim for Health Security and Environment World Health Organization. Please be sure to read the entire document.

It would be very interesting to be able to trace back and find out where the origin of this virus came from. This is one of the things that everyone is always interested about with a new disease. But I would say that at this point we have higher priorities. The most important priority in terms of investigations is to document what is going on now, how is the picture evolving: are we seeing infections in severe cases that are not being detected, are we seeing infection established itself in areas in which it has not yet been documented… this are the kind of investigations that are really critical right now to answer the most urgent issues of how is this evolving, where is it going, what is the impact on people, what steps might be taken to protect people. Nonetheless, I believe that at some point we should come back and try to understand what are the origins of this virus, both in terms of how it moved from pigs to people, where that might have happened. Very interesting questions but maybe not the highest priorities right now.
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/swineflu_presstranscript_2009_04_29.pdf

jreelawg

Apr30-09, 02:25 PM

4 viruses? Are you referring to the H1N1 and H5N1 influenza virus? If so it is just 2 strains of virus from the Orthomyxoviridae family. The influenza viruses are divided into 3 groups A, B and C. Usually only influenza A is of concern since it is the one that causes pandemics.

The H in H1N1 refers to haemagglutinin, there are 14 of them (H1-14) and N refers to neuraminidase, there are 9 of them (N1-9). The action of neuraminidase allows virius to elute from red blood cells while the action of haemagglutinin allow the virus to attach itself to the host cell.

Every now and then the avian influenza virus and the human influenza virus come together in a single host and usually it is the pig because their tracheal have sialic acid (SA) receptor alpha 2,3 (for avian influenza virus) and alpha 2,6 (for human influenza virus) in 1:1 ratio so it makes them a very good mixing pot for the virus. When that happens we get what is called an antigenic shift in which RNA segments are swapped in cells infected with 2 different viruses, the virus change to a new subtype (eg H1N1 to H1N2). Antibodies that recognize the old subtype will not recognize the new subtype hence the immune system cannot react to the virus and a major epidemic/pandemic is born...

"Genetics and effects

Negative stain electronic microscope image of a reassorted A(H1N1) flu virus
The CDC has confirmed that U.S. cases were found to be made up of genetic elements from four different flu viruses – North American swine influenza, North American avian influenza, human influenza, and swine influenza virus typically found in Asia and Europe – "an unusually mongrelised mix of genetic sequences."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_outbreak#Genetics_and_effects

jreelawg

Apr30-09, 02:59 PM

From January 1997 until being sworn in as the 21st Secretary of Defense in January 2001, Rumsfeld served as Chairman of Gilead Sciences, Inc. Gilead Sciences is the developer of Tamiflu (Oseltamivir), which is used in the treatment of bird flu.[27]As a result, Rumsfeld's holdings in the company grew significantly when avian flu became a subject of popular anxiety during his later term as Secretary of Defense. Following standard practice, Rumsfeld recused himself from any decisions involving Gilead, and he directed the Pentagon's General Counsel issue instructions outlining what he could and could not be involved in if there were an avian flu pandemic and the Pentagon had to respond.[28][29][30]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Rumsfeld

A lot of people are making money off of a good scare.

ViewsofMars

Apr30-09, 03:14 PM

World Health Organization lastest update (#6) on Influenza A(H1N1)

30 April 2009 -- The situation continues to evolve rapidly. As of 17:00 GMT, 30 April 2009, 11 countries have officially reported 257 cases of influenza A (H1N1) infection.

The United States Government has reported 109 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death. Mexico has reported 97 confirmed human cases of infection, including seven deaths.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (19), Germany (3), Israel (2), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (3), Spain (13), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (8).

Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO website on a regular basis.

WHO advises no restriction of regular travel or closure of borders. It is considered prudent for people who are ill to delay international travel and for people developing symptoms following international travel to seek medical attention, in line with guidance from national authorities.

There is also no risk of infection from this virus from consumption of well-cooked pork and pork products. Individuals are advised to wash hands thoroughly with soap and water on a regular basis and should seek medical attention if they develop any symptoms of influenza-like illness.
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_04_30_a/en/index.html

Look at WHO's website for latest updates:
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/en/index.html

Evo

Apr30-09, 07:38 PM

Apparently the number of cases has gone down according to authorities.

Mexican Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova told The Associated Press new cases have leveled off and the death rate has been nearly flat for several days.

The health ministry, which earlier said 168 people were believed killed by swine flu in Mexico, on Thursday would only confirm 12 of those deaths So they've basically reported deaths from the flu that might not actually be related.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090430/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu

Is this going to turn out to be one huge false alarm?

The_Absolute

Apr30-09, 08:12 PM

About how many casualties are expected from the worst case scenario of this disease?

Evo

Apr30-09, 08:20 PM

The virus didn't turn out to be that bad. It's thought that the deaths in Mexico were largely attributed to poor medical care and getting care too late, not that the virus was that severe. The fact that cases that were properly treated resulted in the patient recovering quickly seems to support that.

lisab

Apr30-09, 09:06 PM

I'm not sure if this has already been asked, but guessing by the name of the flu I'm sure it has, if you eat pig products i.e. bacon, or ham, are you more susceptible to getting the swine flu.

I'm kind of paranoid right now as I usually eat a slice of ham or bacon at least twice a week for breakfast.

I heard a CDC scientist say tonight that not one pig has been found to have this virus, anywhere in the world!

So eat your bacon, pork chops, ham, pork roast, or sausage without the slightest worry.

turbo-1

Apr30-09, 09:24 PM

I heard a CDC scientist say tonight that not one pig has been found to have this virus, anywhere in the world!

So eat your bacon, pork chops, ham, pork roast, or sausage without the slightest worry.Is "long pig" a danger? I have a neighbor past her breeding years that may need to be culled.

Ukitake Jyuushirou

Apr30-09, 09:35 PM

"Genetics and effects

Negative stain electronic microscope image of a reassorted A(H1N1) flu virus
The CDC has confirmed that U.S. cases were found to be made up of genetic elements from four different flu viruses – North American swine influenza, North American avian influenza, human influenza, and swine influenza virus typically found in Asia and Europe – "an unusually mongrelised mix of genetic sequences."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_outbreak#Genetics_and_effects

Interesting, that is unusual. Thanks for the article

Count Iblis

Apr30-09, 09:36 PM

About how many casualties are expected from the worst case scenario of this disease?

We don't know what a realistic model for a worst case scenario is. In 1918 the flu started in a mild form in spring and went on the decline in the summer. It came back in the fall, killing many people (about 50 million).

But the 1918 flu pandemic may not be the worst case scenario. There are people who claim that the Black Death epidemics of the middle ages were not caused by bubonic plage as most scientist believe, but rather by some virus. Black Death killed 10 to 20 percent of the World's population, so if that were to happen again we are looking at more than a billion deaths.

Even if swine flu turns out to be a pandemic without causing large number of deaths, we are still not safe. The virus could mix with other virusses and then some very deadly virus could arise. Pandemic virusses typically infect about 30% of the World's population, so there is a reasonable chance that someone who is infected with bird flu will also be infected with swine flu. Or perhaps someone in Congo will get Ebola and swine flu. Thing is that in recent decades people are more exposed to rare but deadly virusses like Ebola.

Another factor is that the genetic variation of our species is extremely small compared to other animals. Homo Sapiens went through a population bottleneck about 70,000 years ago. Since the last century the World's population has grown exponentially. There are now 6.5 billion people who are genetically very similar to each other. It could be that this combination of the lack of genetic variation and large population size is unstable in the sense that it would allow a deadly virus to mutate into an even more deadly form.

If you have a small population, then a virus can only spread a few generations before it will have infected everyone (or the entire fraction of the population that is genetically susceptible to the virus). In case of a large population the virus has more generations to go before it will have infected everyone who is susceptible to the virus. Also if everyone in the population is genetically similar then a large fraction of the population can be infected. A new virus can thus go on infecting people who haven't been infected before. It can mutate for many generations and therefore it has more opportunity to mutate into a more deadly form.

lisab

Apr30-09, 10:15 PM

Is "long pig" a danger? I have a neighbor past her breeding years that may need to be culled.

...hey, there are a lot of PF sisters who are past our breeding years :tongue2:!

DaveC426913

Apr30-09, 10:20 PM

...hey, there are a lot of PF sisters who are past our breeding years :tongue2:!
I for one will be happy to to make an attempt to prove that wrong. One at a time or in groups.

The_Absolute

Apr30-09, 10:21 PM

How long do pandemics usually last before they die out?

jreelawg

Apr30-09, 10:27 PM

"WASHINGTON – A security aide helping with arrangements during President Barack Obama's recent trip to Mexico became sick with flu-like symptoms and three members of his family later contracted probable swine flu, the White House said Thursday."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090430/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_obama_swine_flu;_ylt=ArTgnuu.3SbMA_ZJJ2oPAtYDW7 oF

Evo

Apr30-09, 11:00 PM

We don't know what a realistic model for a worst case scenario is. I think it's time to put the gloom and doom to bed, it's just not happening.

The medical care available to the public in 1918 is like the dark ages in comparison to what we have now.

It's very likely that other widespread diseases such as TB played an important role in deaths back then.

The flu doesn't kill, it's secondary infections such as pneumonia that kill, and treated early, the prognosis is very good.

Phrak

Apr30-09, 11:39 PM

I think it's time to put the gloom and doom to bed, it's just not happening.

It looks like we have been taken-in, for the most part, by the hype from Mexican government officials et al, and the media who stands to gain by taking them at face value.

I should have known better. Mexico is a country mired in poverty by institutions that encourage corruption and fraud (more so than others).

Ignoring the Mexican numbers, having no objective scientific value, the WHO's April 30th update places fatalities vs. confirmed cases at 1 to 160. Gestation could up the ratio somewhat. More attention to a sick toddler (the one fatality) could reduce it.

atyy

May1-09, 03:19 AM

I think it's time to put the gloom and doom to bed, it's just not happening.

The medical care available to the public in 1918 is like the dark ages in comparison to what we have now.

It's very likely that other widespread diseases such as TB played an important role in deaths back then.

The flu doesn't kill, it's secondary infections such as pneumonia that kill, and treated early, the prognosis is very good.

What was SARS?

Borek

May1-09, 04:39 AM

Black Death killed 10 to 20 percent of the World's population, so if that were to happen again we are looking at more than a billion deaths.

What a relief to the overcrowded Earth.

Count Iblis

May1-09, 08:42 AM

I think it's time to put the gloom and doom to bed, it's just not happening

The smart thing to do would be to make a list of potential threats that could do serious damage to our civilization. Then look at the probabilities of these threats. If there are threats with a reasonable high probability we should look at how we could best pre-emt such a threat.

Instead, what we have been doing in the last few years is to use play the "disaster card" to settle disputes we have been involved with. Example: We didn't like Saddam (for good reasons) but we played the "potential disaster card" by exaggerating the WMD threat to moblize support for a military invasion and ended up spending something of the order of a trillion dollars on Iraq.

I think also that the problems now in Afghanistan should be solved, but we shouldn't pretend that terrorists from there could somehow deal a blow to our civilization. Nevertheless spending many billions there is something that has broad consensus.

A flu pandemic is different in that it could be a real threat to our civilization. If we were to make a list of disasters that are theoretically capable of killing billions, then things like asteroid impacts, supervolcano eruptions, nearby gamma ray bursts etc. etc. would be on that list as well as a pandemic. But a pandemic has a far larger probability of happening than these other disasters.

So, it seems to me that we should have spend a few bilions to expand the production capacity we have to make vaccines. We should have aimed for the capacity to produce 6.5 billion vaccines in one or two month's time.

Evo

May1-09, 09:43 AM

So, it seems to me that we should have spend a few bilions to expand the production capacity we have to make vaccines. We should have aimed for the capacity to produce 6.5 billion vaccines in one or two month's time.Because of how the virus mutates, you cannot make large batches of vaccine ahead of time because we don't know what will be needed. And then you've got nuts out there telling people that vaccinations and immunizations should be abolished.

turbo-1

May1-09, 09:48 AM

Because of how the virus mutates, you cannot make large batches of vaccine ahead of time because we don't know what will be needed. And then you've got nuts out there telling people that vaccinations and immunizations should be abolished.Also, because the mutation rate out-paces vaccine production, any vaccine that is produced and stockpiled for the upcoming flu season has a good chance of being partially or totally ineffective against next winters' strains.

ViewsofMars

May1-09, 10:28 AM

I've been reading the latest study (May 1, 2009) published in PLoS Medicine:Hedging against Antiviral Resistance during the Next Influenza Pandemic Using Small Stockpiles of an Alternative Chemotherapy by Joseph T. Wu, Gabriel M. Leung, Marc Lipsitch, Ben S. Cooper, and Steven Riley.

Has anyone else read it?

Moridin

May1-09, 01:45 PM

ibnsos

May1-09, 02:39 PM

Because of how the virus mutates, you cannot make large batches of vaccine ahead of time because we don't know what will be needed. And then you've got nuts out there telling people that vaccinations and immunizations should be abolished.

He didn't say make batches ahead of time. What he is talking about is increasing the ability to make vaccines in huge batches quickly.

Evo

May1-09, 02:50 PM

He didn't say make batches ahead of time. What he is talking about is increasing the ability to make vaccines in huge batches quickly.It takes time to develop a vaccine that is effective against a new strain. It's not as easy as it sounds to just have vast resources lying idle in case you have a once a century epidemic.

Evo

May1-09, 02:56 PM

It is not just secondary infections that kill people who have been infected by influenza; the influenza can cause an uncontrolled immune response that damages the body, causing organ failure and the like (cytokine storm). This is thought to be a factor in the demographics of casualties in the 1918 pandemic as well as with the H5N1 strain.

http://scienceblogs.com/aetiology/2009/04/swine_flu_and_deaths_in_health.php
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/26/AR2009042602827.html?sid=ST2009042602901Actually, your link to the blog seems to say no to the anecdotal "cytokine storm" from the Washington Post. Are you sure you posted to the right thing?

So, are we seeing this with the reassortant swine H1N1 virus, or should we expect to find that it causes this? Is this why reportedly many of the deaths to date are in the "young and healthy"? Right now, we simply don't know. As I mentioned yesterday, the data from Mexico (from media reports, at least) are sparse, and only a handful of cases have been confirmed to be caused by the novel swine flu virus. This makes attempts to extrapolate to any larger trends a risky and imprecise endeavor, and the old adage certainly applies: garbage in, garbage out. So right now (again, from media-reported data), we don't know for sure that there really is a higher number of "young and healthy" dying from this virus than we would expect to see--so whether this trend even exists is a big question mark.

However, even if we do see an excess of deaths in that middle age group, there could be other reasons besides the "cytokine storm." Perhaps this group has exposures that have made them more likely to contract the virus than other age groups, so the greater number of deaths is simply a result of a greater number of exposed individuals. Perhaps they were less likely to have been vaccinated in recent years, meaning they had no cross-protective immunity. (This also is a big question mark, as we don't know, even in vaccinated individuals, that any immunity to human H1N1 viruses would confer any protection). Perhaps they've simply been more likely to be noticed in this outbreak, and thus their cases have received more attention and were more likely to have been worked up (as far as obtaining a culture, etc.) than those in the typical influenza risk groups. There are just too many unknowns right now to address these questions, but certainly they will be investigated as more surveillance data is collected.

jreelawg

May1-09, 03:35 PM

"1976 U.S. outbreak
Main article: 1976 swine flu outbreak
On February 5, 1976, in the United States an army recruit at Fort Dix said he felt tired and weak. He died the next day and four of his fellow soldiers were later hospitalized. Two weeks after his death, health officials announced that the cause of death was a new strain of swine flu. The strain, a variant of H1N1, is known as A/New Jersey/1976 (H1N1). It was detected only from January 19 to February 9 and did not spread beyond Fort Dix.[52]

President Ford receives swine flu vaccination
This new strain appeared to be closely related to the strain involved in the 1918 flu pandemic. Moreover, the ensuing increased surveillance uncovered another strain in circulation in the U.S.: A/Victoria/75 (H3N2) spread simultaneously, also caused illness, and persisted until March.[52] Alarmed public-health officials decided action must be taken to head off another major pandemic, and urged President Gerald Ford that every person in the U.S. be vaccinated for the disease.[53]
The vaccination program was plagued by delays and public relations problems.[54] On October 1, 1976, the immunization program began and by October 11, approximately 40 million people, or about 24% of the population, had received swine flu immunizations. That same day, three senior citizens died soon after receiving their swine flu shots and there was a media outcry linking the deaths to the immunizations, despite the lack of positive proof. According to science writer Patrick Di Justo, however, by the time the truth was known — that the deaths were not proven to be related to the vaccine — it was too late. "The government had long feared mass panic about swine flu — now they feared mass panic about the swine flu vaccinations." This became a strong setback to the program.[21]
There were reports of Guillain-Barré syndrome, a paralyzing neuromuscular disorder, affecting some people who had received swine flu immunizations. This syndrome is a rare side-effect of modern influenza vaccines, with an incidence of about one case per million vaccinations.[55] As a result, Di Justo writes that "the public refused to trust a government-operated health program that killed old people and crippled young people." In total, less than 33 percent of the population had been immunized by the end of 1976. The National Influenza Immunization Program was effectively halted on Dec. 16.
Overall, about 500 cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), resulting in death from severe pulmonary complications for 25 people, which, according to Dr. P. Haber, were probably caused by an immunopathological reaction to the 1976 vaccine. Other influenza vaccines have not been linked to GBS, though caution is advised for certain individuals, particularly those with a history of GBS.[56][57] Still, as observed by a participant in the immunization program, the vaccine killed more Americans than the disease did.[58]"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swine_influenza#1976_U.S._outbreak

What is the point in a vaccine if the virus isn't likely to kill you. How many American deaths so far? Besides being infected by the virus naturally is almost the same thing as getting the vaccine isn't it?

The worst and widest spread H1N1 virus, spanish flu, only effected an estimated 28% of the U.S. population. So that means that someone taking a vaccine would likely not even have ever been infected. On top of that, by the time the vaccines were ready, many people out of the potential 28% or so would have already been infected. And, even in 76 where a huge effort was made to vaccinate the public, only 24% of the population were vaccinated. How many of the 24% vaccinated do you think would have been otherwise infected?

ViewsofMars

May1-09, 05:14 PM

As of today (May 1, 2009) you can review the GenBank sequences for the *new* 2009 A(H1N1) influenza outbreak that has been taken from the NIAID Influenza Genome Sequencing Project! Yippee! :biggrin: The National Center for Biotechnology Information is definately a great resource for researchers, whereas in past decades we didn't have the technology.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/genomes/FLU/SwineFlu.html

I hope someone will be able to respond to my last question on the previous page. I would enjoy discussing it with a professional.

Thanks you.

p.s. I'll be back on Monday. Have a great weekend everyone.
Keep a smile on your face. Never give up on hoping for the best in life.

jreelawg

May1-09, 05:27 PM

I'm not a professional, but to me it sounds like they are worried that the virus will mutate and become resistant to antivirals at some point. The basic idea is to start using one drug, and save the other for later. The two effective drugs are relenza and tamiflu.

Count Iblis

May1-09, 08:23 PM

About 1000 suspected cases in New York (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=av4wgnUyWfhI&refer=uk)

New York health officials will test for swine flu only in patients with a severe illness or where there may be a cluster of cases, said the New York City health commissioner, Thomas Frieden, at a news conference today. All of the 49 confirmed cases and more than 1,000 likely infected New Yorkers have had mild symptoms similar to those of seasonal flu, he said.

Ivan Seeking

May1-09, 09:33 PM

Does exposure to this strain of the virus provide protection against variants of the strain that we can expect to see in the future; and others that may already exist?

turbo-1

May1-09, 09:42 PM

Does exposure to this strain of the virus provide protection against variants of the strain that we can expect to see in the future; and others that may already exist?It's an interesting dynamic. If you are exposed to a flu virus at the beginning of the next flu season, and suffer a mild case of the flu (as most people have experienced so far), your protection will be far more up-to-date than anybody who receives a vaccine at about that time that was developed starting today. It can take 3-4 months to work up a vaccine, and another 3-4 months or more before enough of the vaccine can be produced to get enough doses to treat the at-risk population in the US. By the time next fall comes around, if the flu has not gotten deadly, you might be better off to contract it and suffer a mild case of it than to get vaccinated.

jreelawg

May2-09, 01:52 AM

Did anyone here of this?

"2009 avian flu contamination
The Austrian pharmaceutical firm, Baxter International, sent a flu vaccine, which it had accidentally contaminated with the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus, for testing in the Czech Republic, a report said Tuesday [3/3/2009]. The Austrian firm Baxter said it contaminated the vaccine with the dangerous virus by accident, likely during packaging in Austria, the Mlada Fronta Dnes daily reported, citing Baxter's representative. Baxter shipped the infected vaccine to the Czech biomedical firm Biotest for testing on ferrets in late January. None of Biotest's employees, who had been exposed to the highly pathogenic virus for a week, contracted the disease. According to the World Health Organization figures, the bird flu has killed 254 people, mostly in Asia and Africa, including four deaths reported in Turkey. The Czech Republic's chief epidemiologist Michael Vit said that it was unclear whether the Biotest workers had been under a high risk of infection as the Czech authorities did not know how much virus the vaccine contained. Officials, however, hinted that the situation could have been serious. "Thank God it did not spread," Vit said. The Czech company managed to prevent the virus from spreading outside the lab to poultry breeds, which would have had to be culled in such an event. "If it were to spread to poultry farms it would have caused serious problems," said Josef Duben, a spokesman for the Czech State Veterinary Administration. The exposed employees were given Tamiflu medicine and have been regularly tested, Vit said. The infected ferrets had to be culled and the laboratory, which is located 70 kilometres east of the Czech capital Prague, was disinfected. [6][7] [8]"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baxter_International

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601124&refer=science&sid=aTo3LbhcA75I

This just goes to show how easy vaccine makers can screw up and risk a pandemic. That sounds like a pretty boneheaded mistake.

And this is the corporation who is going to manufacture the worlds swine bird man flu vaccine.

"...Still, around 60% of humans known to have been infected with the current Asian strain of HPAI A(H5N1) have died from it, and H5N1 may mutate or reassort into a strain capable of efficient human-to-human transmission. In 2003, world-renowned virologist Robert Webster published an article titled "The world is teetering on the edge of a pandemic that could kill a large fraction of the human population" in American Scientist. He called for adequate resources to fight what he sees as a major world threat to possibly billions of lives.[6] On September 29, 2005, David Nabarro, the newly-appointed Senior United Nations System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza, warned the world that an outbreak of avian influenza could kill anywhere between 5 million and 150 million people.[7] Experts have identified key events (creating new clades, infecting new species, spreading to new areas) marking the progression of an avian flu virus towards becoming pandemic, and many of those key events have occurred more rapidly than expected."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H5N1#Overview

jreelawg

May2-09, 03:12 AM

"At least one U.S. company has jumped in early to start evaluating the strain, potentially in order to develop a vaccine. Illinois-based Baxter International Inc. requested virus samples from the World Health Organization and expects to obtain them in the next few days, company spokesman Chris Bona said." :eek:

"He said Baxter has a special system to "rapidly produce" flu vaccines and potentially could develop one in half the time it normally takes -- about 26 weeks."

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/04/30/demand-new-flu-vaccine-overwhelm-manufacturers/

Hopefully they don't accidentally contaminate it with h5n1!

Moridin

May2-09, 11:23 AM

The CDC has about 6 billion dollars in its annual budget. The annual budget for the military is about 600 billion or so. Gives some perspective, I think.

jim mcnamara

May2-09, 03:00 PM

There is a swirl of partial information out there in the blogosphere.

Evolution of Infectious Disease by Paul W. Ewald (1996)

presents a good model for understanding what the CDC and epidemiologists fear can happen/not happen with H1N5. Influenza can change virulence, change mode or rapidity of infection as it infects new hosts (and so on) - primarily as it moves from host to host individuals in a population.

Modern populations are very mobile, so it may be reasonable to infer that some changes in the virus' "pattern of behavior" will surface quickly. It is completely impossible to predict what the changes will be. The only sure thing is that if spread of the disease is restricted, the probability of these changes occurring is reduced.

Red Rum

May2-09, 07:15 PM

hypatia

May2-09, 08:01 PM

Amen

Count Iblis

May2-09, 09:10 PM

Lord God, I can't believe the hysteria this is causing. Evo has made the very good point that n 1918, levels of medical care and understanding of viral infections were both poor. Most people died not from the flu but from complications resulting from secondary bacterial infections, this was in the days before antibiotics were available. Get a grip!

Then why does H5N1 kill 50% of the people it infects in this day and age? And how come SARS was so dangerous?

Moridin

May3-09, 09:49 AM

Lord God, I can't believe the hysteria this is causing. Evo has made the very good point that n 1918, levels of medical care and understanding of viral infections were both poor. Most people died not from the flu but from complications resulting from secondary bacterial infections, this was in the days before antibiotics were available. Get a grip!

This faith is deeply misplaced. Most people from seasonal influenza may die from secondary infections, but this is not necessary the case for pandemic influenza. We are facing things like antibiotic resistant bacteria and pandemic influenza that we cannot at this point in time, handle.

Astronuc

May3-09, 11:16 AM

The director of the state health department indicated that most recent infections with flu like symptoms were not H1N1, the apparent transmissibility of the H1N1 is not significantly greater than the annual seasonal flu, and it apparently it does not appear to be more severe than normal flu, and the majority of those (in the US) with H1N1 seem to be recovering. However, he pointed out that its early in the cycle, so the current trends are preliminary and they'll have a better idea in a month or so. Nevertheless, health officials are treating it as serious.

CDC and other health officials are puzzled why so many in Mexico died.

WhoWee

May3-09, 11:32 AM

Then why does H5N1 kill 50% of the people it infects in this day and age? And how come SARS was so dangerous?

It's not a matter of when...that is - today.

It is a matter of where.

http://cme.medscape.com/viewarticle/518006
"4. Understanding the Current Threat of Avian Influenza A (H5N1)
Over the past 3 years, there has been an unprecedented outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus, subgroup H5N1. While this infection has been almost entirely restricted to live-stock poultry in Southeast Asia, the disease has spread into Europe with outbreaks reported in wild birds and nonavian mammals. While few cases of human influenza from H5N1 have occurred, outbreaks among birds typically predict subsequent human outbreaks.

Human infection with avian influenza virus H5N1 was first described in Hong Kong in 1997. As of November 1, 2005, the World Health Organization (WHO) has reported 122 confirmed cases with 62 deaths (case fatality rate 51%).[10] This is likely an underestimation, with concerns of failed reporting or failure to recognize and confirm cases. All reported human cases have occurred in Southeast Asia, primarily among poultry workers. These individuals have the highest exposure and the greatest risk for avian-to-human transmission. However, clustering of cases has been identified with spread to nonpoultry workers, suggesting sporadic human-to-human spread.[11] Although not currently suspected, a genetic mutation resulting in sustained human-to-human transmission could lead to a pandemic.

Unlike previous human influenza infections, most deaths have occurred in young, otherwise healthy individuals (median age 20 years, range 4 months - 81 years).[10] Whether this reflects the demographics of poultry workers with the highest exposure or a predilection for worse cases in this population remains to be seen and cannot be confirmed until more cases develop. However, this raises concerns over the population at risk for worse outcomes."

Borek

May3-09, 12:12 PM

Human infection with avian influenza virus H5N1 was first described in Hong Kong in 1997. As of November 1, 2005, the World Health Organization (WHO) has reported 122 confirmed cases with 62 deaths (case fatality rate 51%).[10] This is likely an underestimation, with concerns of failed reporting or failure to recognize and confirm cases. All reported human cases have occurred in Southeast Asia, primarily among poultry workers.

Question is what 122 confirmed cases mean. It wouldn't be surprising if these are just cases where the flu was so severe that it ended with medical intervention, while others that contracted the flu never contacted the doctors and survived without any problems.

I am not telling that the avian flu is not dangerous, I am just telling we really don't know.

D H

May3-09, 12:18 PM

CDC and other health officials are puzzled why so many in Mexico died.
The most likely explanation is bad reporting. WHO as of 600 GMT, 3 May 2009, places the number of deaths due to H1N1 at 20, 19 in Mexico and one in the US, not the 150+ number virulently reported by the media (http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_03/en/index.html). Plain old vanilla influenza appears to be more deadly than H1N1. The reaction now appears to be overblown. The problem with overblown reactions is that when the real thing strikes we will have become inured and will not react appropriately. On the other hand, the problem with underblown(?) reactions is that this lets a particularly nasty mutation become pandemic.

turbo-1

May3-09, 01:25 PM

At this point, I would not encourage loved-ones to quarantine themselves. H1N1 is pretty mild so far, and getting exposed to it now and developing antibodies in a mild reaction might be the best protection against any more virulent form that could evolve. When I was a kid, I got the measles, German measles, chicken pox - you name it. The only thing that came close to killing me was garden-variety flu and a secondary bronchial infection when I was about 6 or so. The vomiting and diarrhea (and general inability to keep anything down for a few days) was enough to dehydrate me past the point at which the doctor felt that intravenous re-hydration would help. He had my mother keep feeding me warm flat ginger ale and toast until I could hold down better food.

Phrak

May3-09, 01:47 PM

The number of resurrections from swine flu death hovers at 143. :bugeye:

http://minnesotaindependent.com/33735/world-health-organization-only-seven-confirmed-swine-flu-deaths-globally

The_Absolute

May3-09, 08:00 PM

Is it possible to survive this virus?

D H

May3-09, 08:33 PM

In the US, 226 cases, 1 death (http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/). Yes, it is survivable. It is apparently no more virulent than the garden variety flus that hit every year. There is no reason to be any more worried about this particular strain of flu than any other influenza strain. (But note well: Plain old vanilla influenza kills 36,000 Americans every year).

Phrak

May4-09, 01:06 AM

rekshaw

May4-09, 07:15 AM

D H

May4-09, 08:10 AM

Count Iblis

May4-09, 08:48 AM

I was watching the CNN couple of days ago and a spokesman was arguing that the epidemic is actually way to over-blown by the media and that even though it helps to keep everyone on such a high alert, it is really unnecessary as it is far from being really dangerous.

I think that without this media attention, you would have many young, healthy Americans dying by now. So, I think it explains why swine flu appears to be less lethal outside of Mexico.

Compared to other flu epidemics, swine flu is more dangerous. In Mexico ordinary flu outbreaks did not typically kill young relatively healthy people. When a month ago people were falling it with swine flu, no one suspected it was anything else than ordinary flu. Only when people started to die who would not be expected to die, were detailed investigations started.

In Mexico, people became more cautious, people with severe flu symptoms went to the hospital instead of thinking that they will recover without medical attention. Also, people may have been used to going to work even if they have a fever. They stopped doing that now.

By the time swine flu spread to the US and other places in the world, everyone was warned. Then we cannot look at the death tolls now and compare that to ordinary flu. In case of ordinary flu it is very rare for young people to die and it is not very rare for young people who have a fever to take stupid risks by going to work as if nothing happened.

Then what may happen is that a young person can end up getting a pneumonia and end up in hospital, but that in itself is quite rare. If that happens the person will typically recover.

This time around, people are not taking any risks, some young people who get high fever are treated in hospital. They get tamiflu right away and they then recover quite rapidly.

So, perhaps one can make the case that this wine flu epidemic is not as bad as the 1918 flu epidemic, as such an epidemic may have killed people despite rapid treatment of severe cases. But it is clearly worse than an ordinary flu epidemic. And you have to also consider that people in risk groups who get the flu shot are now at risk as the flu shot does not protect against swine flu.

D H

May4-09, 08:59 AM

I think that without this media attention, you would have many young, healthy Americans dying by now. So, I think it explains why swine flu appears to be less lethal outside of Mexico.
I don't think so. This particular strain of influenza is apparently no more fatal, and possibly less fatal, that the seasonal flu. This disease is not attacking healthy young adults. The number of deaths attributable to this disease in Mexico is only 19. The problem with the disease is the reporting of it, not the disease itself. The original reports of 159 deaths were, simply put, incorrect.

Count Iblis

May4-09, 09:19 AM

The 19 cases are the cases where you can rigorously prove that people died from swine flu. There are many cases of young people in Mexico who died after more than a week of illness. They may have died from a secondary infection, so technically this then doesn't count as a swine flu death. However, the number of such deaths greatly exceeds what you would expect from ordinary flu.

To compare swine flu to ordinary flu one would have consider a population who would treat swine flu as ordinary flu. Then, even in the developed world, a large fraction of the populaton do not visit the doctor, even if they have a high fever. Medical attention in hospital is only considered in case of pneumonia. It is not clear if this sort of hands down treatment for swine flu would not have lead to deaths.

Also, CNN interviewd a father and her daughter (about 16 years old) in Texas a week ago. She got swine flu, got 40 °C fever visited the hospital immediately, got tamiflu and recovered quite fast. How do we know that she would not have died if people were not aware of potantiall dangerous swine flu?

The father may not have sought medical attention until days later if it became clear that she had breading difficulties, as 40 °C fever is not unusual for ordinary flu. Then if she had contracted a secondary infection and died from that in hospital, her death would not even have qualified as a swine flu death.

Moridin

May4-09, 01:20 PM

A lot of people in this topic seem to be unaware about the differences between seasonal and pandemic influenza.

Count Iblis

May4-09, 04:38 PM

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aSw7zjyBgq_k&refer=us

Data so far suggest the virus is striking younger patients than is typical for influenza, and younger patients than usual are entering hospitals, said Anne Schuchat, a scientist at the CDC. “Very few” patients with swine flu are older than 50, and the median age is 17. It’s possible that older people have greater immunity, she said.

turbo-1

May4-09, 04:51 PM

I don't know what strain of swine flu passed through here in the mid 70's but it is possible that people who either were immunized at the time and/or went through a mild infection are resistant. They set up large teams of medical technicians and nurses in the local armories and vaccinated us with pneumatic "guns" assembly-line style instead of using needles and vials of vaccine. This alone could have created an age disparity such that anybody who was an infant or older in the mid-70's (maybe in their early thirties or older now) would be under-represented as victims today. Such a disparity does not in and of itself prove that that the new flu is more virulent or that it targets younger people selectively.

mgb_phys

May4-09, 05:03 PM

“Very few” patients with swine flu are older than 50, and the median age is 17. It’s possible that older people have greater immunity, she said.
It's also possible that it isn't very person-person infectious.
There are a lot more 17 year old poultry/pig workers than 50 year old ones.

Count Iblis

May4-09, 05:50 PM

It's also possible that it isn't very person-person infectious.
There are a lot more 17 year old poultry/pig workers than 50 year old ones.

I think this is also the pattern they see in the US.

Count Iblis

May4-09, 06:00 PM

Swine flu-HIV combination could devastate the human race (http://www.upi.com/news/issueoftheday/2009/05/04/Swine-flu-HIV-could-devastate-human-race/UPI-43071241461493/)

The four strands of the swine flu virus come from pigs, humans and birds. Experts believe that the virus mutated into its current form in the bodies of pigs. Health authorities are particularly worried that the capability to mutate already exhibited by the virus could eventually let it combine with the human immunodeficiency virus, which causes AIDS.

Evo

May4-09, 07:34 PM

atyy

May4-09, 08:10 PM

Moridin

May6-09, 04:17 AM

Oh good grief. How desparate are these people to come up with things?

"The Swine Flu? Pah, just Media Hype!" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W57pnVhEhjU

Count Iblis

May19-09, 07:25 PM

U.S. health officials troubled by new flu pattern (http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE54H3QO20090518?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0)

"That's very unusual, to have so many people under 20 to require hospitalization, and some of them in (intensive care units)," Schuchat told reporters in a telephone briefing.

Moridin

Jun11-09, 12:13 PM

W.H.O. Raises Alert Level as Flu Spreads to 74 Countries (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/12/world/12who.html?em)

GENEVA — The World Health Organization has told its member nations it is declaring a swine flu pandemic — the first global flu epidemic in 41 years, news services reported.

The move came after an emergency meeting with flu experts here that was convened after a sharp rise in cases in Australia, which reported 1,263 cases on Thursday, and rising numbers in Britain, Japan, Chile and elsewhere.

In a statement sent to member countries, the W.H.O. said it decided to raise the pandemic alert level from phase 5 to 6, indicating a global pandemic outbreak, The Associated Press said, attributing the information to health officials from Scotland, Indonesia and Thailand. An official announcement of the change was due at 6 p.m. Geneva time on Thursday (noon in New York).

Where are the "it is just a media hype" people now? :wink:

mgb_phys

Jun11-09, 12:22 PM

Where are the "it is just a media hype" people now? :wink:
The spokesman also said this was mainly an administrative matter and didn't indicate the flu was any more dangerous
Of the two other official pandemics, one killed 100million people, the other one was only noticed by the WHO.
Basically all it means is that governemts should make H1N5 vaccines available as well as regular seasonal flu.

Moridin

Jun11-09, 02:29 PM

The spokesman also said this was mainly an administrative matter and didn't indicate the flu was any more dangerous
Of the two other official pandemics, one killed 100million people, the other one was only noticed by the WHO.
Basically all it means is that governemts should make H1N5 vaccines available as well as regular seasonal flu.

Hardly a mere administrative matter.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html

There are clear distinctions between level 5 and level 6.
Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.

I am amazed at the length science deniers will go to support or prop up their beliefs.

Moridin

Jun11-09, 02:38 PM

The spokesman also said this was mainly an administrative matter and didn't indicate the flu was any more dangerous
Of the two other official pandemics, one killed 100million people, the other one was only noticed by the WHO.
Basically all it means is that governemts should make H1N5 vaccines available as well as regular seasonal flu.

Also, what other two "official pandemics"? There have been much more than just two pandemics just in the last hundred years, none of them merely noticed by the WHO. Again, I am amazed by what you science deniers like to cook up when you think no one is watching. The current influenza virus is also H1N1, not H1N5.

1729-1730, 1732-1733, 1781-1782, 1830-1831, 1833, 1889-1890, 1918-1919, 1957-1958, 1968-1969, 2009 are the dates of the previous influenza pandemics. The 1968 pandemic, also knows as the Hong Kong flu killed around 1 million people around the world. The one you refer to, which is the 1918 pandemic, killed around 50-100 million people, the large range is due to insufficient records from USSR.

http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1FLU/
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8153259847548931048

mgb_phys

Jun11-09, 03:21 PM

Also, what other two "official pandemics"? There have been much more than just two pandemics just in the last hundred years, none of them merely noticed by the WHO.
The 1919 spanish flu and something in the 1960s (I was only half listening to the radio)
The point was that pandemic is based on rather arbitrary rulings. eg cases in two countries, so a single case each in Andorra + Lichtenstien = a pandemic, a million dead in China doesn't ?
The WHO making it a level 6 doesn't affect your chances of catching it.

You have to be immediately suspicious of any medical statistics or rulings that depend on national boundaries, if I travel 6km south of here I can no longer give blood for 3months because the US has West Nile Virus and Canada doesn't. The US border crossing is a pain but I don't think it effectively keeps out mosquitoes.

Again, I am amazed by what you science deniers like to cook up when you think no one is watching.
We get a memo.

Red Rum

Jun11-09, 05:43 PM

The original question was "is swine flu a threat". Having it declared a pandemic doesn't make it any more threatening. Have the mortality figures become any more alarming despite the increase in the number of people infected?

Has the age profile of swine flu sufferers changed? Is it still mainly the young who probably have not encountered this strain previously? Science deniers indeed! As the WHO itself has stated: no grounds for panic.

There was a pretty nasty flu virus around in Europe last winter (and according to the media in Australia as well) which I'm sure caused the deaths of a large number of vulnerable people, but I don't recall any great commotion about it. The doctor I visited about it took my temperature, confirmed I probably had the flu (I went so that I could get a certificate to say I was ill in order to claim my vacation days back) and gave me antibiotics that I didn't need. I felt so awful I took the course anyway just in case there was a risk of secondary infection.
I do however have some advice for sufferers of infectious respiratory infections: be socially responsible and stay indoors to limit the spread. And if you're not ill, stay away from hospitals and doctors' surgeries during flu outbreaks.

Count Iblis

Jun11-09, 07:01 PM

buffordboy23

Jun11-09, 09:21 PM

The alarming thing about this virus is that 30% to 50% of the deaths are healthy people in the age range between 30 and 50. People in this age range are less likely to catch the virus compared to people under 25, but apparently they are more likely to die from the disease.

If this is true, then there is at least one similarity between this pandemic and the one of 1918-1919 according to previous posts to data links in this thread. If I recall correctly, when the swine flu first gained media attention due to the outbreak in Mexico the media outlets reported scenarios similar to your given statistics. However, we later learned that the validity of these reports was dubious. Please provide the reference from which you state these figures.

Andy Resnick

Jun11-09, 09:42 PM

russ_watters

Jun11-09, 11:23 PM

The reason it affects younger people more may be very simple: Scientists think it's because older people have been exposed to other viruses in the past that are more similar to swine flu than more recent seasonal flus.http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090521/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu_older_immunity

ViewsofMars

Jun11-09, 11:28 PM

I think it's extremely important to read the whole article from the United Nation News Center in light of the fact that it is globally being made available to the public, though many aren't aware of it. I've highlighted certain items in hope that it will create an atmosphere of calmness, security, and a strong faith in our scientific community to come to the aide of those in need. :smile:

World facing global A(H1N1) flu pandemic, announces UN health agency

11 June 2009 – The A(H1N1) influenza outbreak has officially reached global pandemic levels, the public health arm of the United Nations announced today, as it raised its warning system to Phase 6.

The World Health Organization (WHO) stressed that Phase 6, the highest level on its pandemic alert scale, refers to the spread of the virus and not its severity.

The upgrade to Phase 6 means that sustained human-to-human transmission of the virus has spread beyond North America, where it was concentrated, with WHO reporting 28,774 verified cases of the infection in 74 countries, including 144 deaths, as of this morning.

“The world is now at the start of the 2009 influenza pandemic,” WHO Director-General Margaret Chan told reporters in Geneva, adding that the spread of the virus is unstoppable.

“On present evidence, the overwhelming majority of patients experience mild symptoms,” said Dr. Chan, and WHO does “not expect to see a dramatic jump in the number of severe or fatal infections.”

She noted that the virus tends to infect younger people with the majority of cases, in areas with widespread outbreaks, occurring in people under 25 years of age, and around 2 per cent of cases have suffered very severe symptoms, such as life-threatening pneumonia.

Dr. Chan added that the most severe and fatal infections have been in adults between the ages of 30 and 50 years, a significantly different pattern to epidemics of regular seasonal flu which generally claims frail, elderly people.

“Of greatest concern,” said Dr. Chan. “We do not know how this virus will behave under conditions typically found in the developing world.”

People in the developing world are particularly vulnerable to severe reactions to the infection, as more than 99 per cent of maternal deaths occur in poor countries, and around 85 per cent of the burden of chronic diseases is concentrated in low- and middle-income countries, said Dr. Chan.

“It is prudent to anticipate a bleaker picture as the virus spreads to areas with limited resources, poor health care and high prevalence of underlying medical problems.”

Countries where outbreaks appear to have peaked should prepare for a second wave of infection, warned Dr. Chan, adding that countries with no reported cases or only a few infections should remain vigilant.

“I understand that production of vaccines for seasonal influenza will be completed soon, and that full capacity will be available to ensure the largest possible supply of pandemic vaccine in the months to come.”

WHO recommends no restrictions on travel or border closures, said Dr. Chan. “We are all in this together and we will all get through this together,” she stated.

Speaking at his monthly news conference in New York today, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon stressed the need for preparedness, especially in the wake of WHO’s announcement.

“We must be watchful. We do not know what picture will emerge in the coming months,” he stated. “The virus has hit mainly developed countries. That is likely to soon change – and it will have consequences.

“We must therefore be prepared. Our best response is a firm demonstration of global solidarity,” Mr. Ban said, adding that he will convene a meeting of the Influenza Steering Committee in New York on Monday to “map out our immediate next steps.”

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=31106&Cr=h1n1&Cr1=

B. Elliott

Jun11-09, 11:40 PM

The swine flu finally hit the base i'm stationed on here in the northeastern US. There have been eight confirmed cases so far with no one really becoming 'extremely' ill. Just typical flu-like symptoms.

The command here on base has been in direct contact with the CDC to provide and receive updates. They advised that the problem with swine flu is that it changes quickly which has made it hard to come up with a vaccine specifically for it. It's definitely been spreading from person to person though... at least that's how it's been spreading here.

The real concern is with people who do not have fast available medical care. Swine flu is definitely a concern, but it's still just a strain of the influenza virus. If it can be treated in a timely manner, the person will make a quick recovery with no severe problems. It's the people who try to fight it and put off treatment, thinking that it's just a cold, that really have the problem. And again, mainly the people without readily available treatment.

Moridin

Jun12-09, 08:24 AM

Ummm... when I checked the CDC website, it indicated there were 27 deaths in the U.S. due to H1N1 virus. I don't see how this compares to 1 million or 50 million or 100 million deaths.

Or is this some sort of "we must be ever vigilant" mentality?

We are just in the first stages on this pandemic, and the virus has the ability to mutate to a much more virulent and dangerous strain and come back in the fall or winter. Viruses, and indeed many microorganisms, are very promiscuous when it comes to sharing genetic material. The question is not when we will get another 1918-style outbreak, but when.

Moridin

Jun12-09, 08:28 AM

The reason it affects younger people more may be very simple: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090521/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu_older_immunity

This explanation is very probable and it is consistent with the epidemiology of the 1918 pandemic as well.

http://mitworld.mit.edu/video/323

ViewsofMars

Jun12-09, 11:24 AM

Medline Plus (A service on the U.S. National Library of Medicine and the National Institutes of Health) has a X-Plain Education Tutorial: H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu). It's a very good.

http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/tutorials/h1n1flu/htm/_no_50_no_0.htm

ViewsofMars

Jun12-09, 11:33 AM

I forgot to mention that you have the option of reading the X-Plain Education Tutorial: H1N1 Flu or listening to it if you turn on your computer speakers.

Andy Resnick

Jun12-09, 07:40 PM

We are just in the first stages on this pandemic, and the virus has the ability to mutate to a much more virulent and dangerous strain and come back in the fall or winter. Viruses, and indeed many microorganisms, are very promiscuous when it comes to sharing genetic material. The question is not when we will get another 1918-style outbreak, but when.

Well, look- if you want to hyperventilate about vague possibilites, that's up to you. Don't expect everyone to agree with you.

russ_watters

Jun12-09, 08:14 PM

Well, look- if you want to hyperventilate about vague possibilites, that's up to you. Don't expect everyone to agree with you. Agreed, but it's worse than that: the last sentence says it is all but a certainty, while the first and second are about possibilities. The hype has people holding these contradictory ideas in their heads that it might mutate and become worse (might any virus?) and that it will. Well it also might not get worse*. Why we should be more than just mildly concerned about this escapes me.

*edit: By "worse", I mean more virulent/lethal. Certainly, many more people will get it and die from it next flu season than did this flu season. That certainty alone is not cause for alarm.

russ_watters

Jun12-09, 08:23 PM

"The Swine Flu? Pah, just Media Hype!" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W57pnVhEhjU Does the white board add credibility? There is so much idle speculation and specious logic in there, it's rediculous. Some obvious problems:

1. A normal flu doesn't necessarily just infect one person per generation (how could it, considering how many people are infected every year).
2. A flu that no one has a previous exposure based immunity to will not necessarily affect everyone exposed.
2a. Some people do have a previous exposure based immunity to swine flu.
3. Might mutate into something worse does not equal will mutate into something worse.
4. There was no flu vaccine in 1918.

Moonbear

Jun12-09, 08:25 PM

We are just in the first stages on this pandemic, and the virus has the ability to mutate to a much more virulent and dangerous strain and come back in the fall or winter.
And that COULD be the case for any strain. So far, there really isn't any indication this particular virus is anything special in terms of severity of illness.

Viruses, and indeed many microorganisms, are very promiscuous when it comes to sharing genetic material. The question is not when we will get another 1918-style outbreak, but when.

The question is not when but when? I don't know. I'd argue that our understanding of hygiene and public health, ability to rapidly inform large percentages of the population about newly emerging viral strains, along with knowledge about the mechanisms of virus actions and the treatments available have changed considerably since 1918. All of these would contribute toward lessening the impact of any particular flu virus on the overall population.

Moonbear

Jun12-09, 08:28 PM

2a. Some people do have a previous exposure based immunity to swine flu.

Our state has a really low incidence of this strain of swine flu, and only among those who have traveled outside the state to other affected regions so far (I think it was either 2 or 4 cases so far). We also have a lot of agriculture in this state. Perhaps similar to the way those who had been exposed to cowpox in their cattle developed immunity to smallpox before a smallpox vaccine was developed, people who live in areas where other forms of swine flu have been passed around among swine have developed an immunity to the strain that infects humans.

Count Iblis

Jun12-09, 09:28 PM

Even if the virus stays the way it is, we still have to deal with this fact, see WHO message posted above by ViewsofMars:

Dr. Chan added that the most severe and fatal infections have been in adults between the ages of 30 and 50 years, a significantly different pattern to epidemics of regular seasonal flu which generally claims frail, elderly people.

This looks quite alarming to me. I've also read somewhere that about half of these fatalities were people who had no chronic disease that would be associated with a higher risk of complications due to flu.

Swine flu is spreading slowly, presumably because it isn't the right season for flu. So, not many people have been infected and as a result, the number of people who have died are quite small if you compare that to other ordinary flu epidemics.

But if swine flu goes on to infect a significant fraction of the World's population then, assuming that the fatality rate is similar to ordinary flu, you could have tens of thousands of deaths, but these will be relatively young people. So, unless everyone is vaccinated in time, it would still be a disaster.

Phrak

Jun12-09, 10:48 PM

I haven't visited this thread, nor the WHO website in a while. What happened the alert levels, oddly redefined as they were? Now we are given phases instead. I feel the WHO is jurking us around with the shell game to justify past statements.

B. Elliott

Jun13-09, 02:13 AM

Does the white board add credibility? There is so much idle speculation and specious logic in there, it's rediculous. Some obvious problems:

2a. Some people do have a previous exposure based immunity to swine flu.
3. Might mutate into something worse does not equal will mutate into something worse.
4. There was no flu vaccine in 1918.

Those are the points I meant to hit on, Russ. The current overall quality of life, when it comes to vaccinations, is much better when comparing it to 1918.

Moridin

Jun13-09, 07:18 AM

Well, look- if you want to hyperventilate about vague possibilites, that's up to you. Don't expect everyone to agree with you.

It does not matter if your particular political ideology disallows you to agree with me, since I have the science on my side. It is not a vague possibility, it is something that has been observed repeatedly throughout history.

Moridin

Jun13-09, 07:24 AM

Agreed, but it's worse than that: the last sentence says it is all but a certainty, while the first and second are about possibilities. The hype has people holding these contradictory ideas in their heads that it might mutate and become worse (might any virus?) and that it will. Well it also might not get worse*. Why we should be more than just mildly concerned about this escapes me.

*edit: By "worse", I mean more virulent/lethal. Certainly, many more people will get it and die from it next flu season than did this flu season. That certainty alone is not cause for alarm.

I expected more from you. Those positions are hardly contradictory. It is a possibility that this particular strain will, but do to the facts of evolution, it is a near certainty that a strain will sooner or later repeat the effects of earlier pandemics. I am obviously not talking exclusively about this strain, but the overall epidemiology of influenza viruses. As you know, viruses like these are very promiscuous, so there is cause for attention when a possible pandemic arises.

I apologize if I expressed myself a bit vague earlier.

Moridin

Jun13-09, 07:39 AM

Does the white board add credibility?

Again, I expected more from you here, rather than mere irrelevant points.

1. A normal flu doesn't necessarily just infect one person per generation (how could it, considering how many people are infected every year).
2. A flu that no one has a previous exposure based immunity to will not necessarily affect everyone exposed.
2a. Some people do have a previous exposure based immunity to swine flu.
3. Might mutate into something worse does not equal will mutate into something worse.
4. There was no flu vaccine in 1918.

1. The video does not states that a seasonal influenza infects one person per generation, he is merely focusing on one particular lineage, and the lines beside that specific lineage shows that he isn't arguing that only one person is infected per generation.
2. One of the reasons an influenza becomes a pandemic is that there exists little or no natural immunity. Without natural or exposure based immunity, you are hoping for a lot of....asymptomatic carriers? Or what?
2a. Yes, so did people during the 1918 pandemic, yet 50-100 million died.
3. Straw man, see previous post.
4. There is nothing that will guarantee that a readily available flu vaccine will be ready for deployment during a pandemic. Even antiviral drugs like Tamiflu is problematic. In 2005, there was only one factory that produced it in Switzerland. During a pandemic, companies like FedEx will not fly, so the US air force has to land on Switz soil. There was also no global travel in 1918.

Moridin

Jun13-09, 08:03 AM

The question is not when but when? I don't know. I'd argue that our understanding of hygiene and public health, ability to rapidly inform large percentages of the population about newly emerging viral strains, along with knowledge about the mechanisms of virus actions and the treatments available have changed considerably since 1918. All of these would contribute toward lessening the impact of any particular flu virus on the overall population.

If you look at how the Ebola epidemic in Zaire, the pneumonic plague outbreak in Surat (both in the 90s) or how antibiotic resistant bacteria was actually aided by the sloppy prescriptions and uses of antibiotics in both the US and the USSR one might reach a different conclusion. Garrett (2000) reports that the Zaire outbreak took five to six months from the doctors in Zaire knew about the first cases until either the WHO or CDC got the information. The "not if, but when" is an argument from the nature of the evolutionary arms race between H. sapiens and microorganisms that cannot be easily refuted by a reference to our current tools and methods. Surely, you do not believe that it is just a matter of inventing new drugs?

russ_watters

Jun13-09, 10:02 AM

Our state has a really low incidence of this strain of swine flu, and only among those who have traveled outside the state to other affected regions so far (I think it was either 2 or 4 cases so far). We also have a lot of agriculture in this state. Perhaps similar to the way those who had been exposed to cowpox in their cattle developed immunity to smallpox before a smallpox vaccine was developed, people who live in areas where other forms of swine flu have been passed around among swine have developed an immunity to the strain that infects humans. You have no idea how difficult it was for me to suppress the urge to make fun of your state in reply to that....

russ_watters

Jun13-09, 10:25 AM

It is a possibility that this particular strain will, but do to the facts of evolution, it is a near certainty that a strain will sooner or later repeat the effects of earlier pandemics. I am obviously not talking exclusively about this strain, but the overall epidemiology of influenza viruses. Oh, ok - you're not saying that the current flu will be the one. Well ok, maybe, but then you're not really adding anything useful to a thread about swine flu by saying that. The question being posed isn't 'will we eventually get hit by another mega flu', it is "is the swine flu a threat". And your previous post was about the hype of this flu not being excessive. In any case, I and others have pointed out differences between today and 1918 that imply that it would be difficult for a repeat performance. The video does not states that a seasonal influenza infects one person per generation, he is merely focusing on one particular lineage, and the lines beside that specific lineage shows that he isn't arguing that only one person is infected per generation. When he says "most seasonal flus....if one person with the flu comes into contact with four, maybe only one will actually develop the virus", it's wrong. He adds weasel words like "maybe" to it, but that's what he is saying and that's what he drew it on the board. I am aware that it may start in multiple places simultaneously, but that doesn't make it any more wrong to illustrate the spread as being linear. It isn't.
2. One of the reasons an influenza becomes a pandemic is that there exists little or no natural immunity. Without natural or exposure based immunity, you are hoping for a lot of....asymptomatic carriers? Or what? A lot or a few, doesn't matter: there are some who don't get sick. But the bigger problem is mostly what constitutes "exposure". As Moonbear pointed out, we know better than they did how to prevent exposure, which will make each generation smaller than in 1918 (assuming equal virulence).

Then, of course, there is the vaccine (that's related to the point).... That also will make each generation smaller than in 1918. 2a. Yes, so did people during the 1918 pandemic, yet 50-100 million died. That's not the point of the criticism. The point is that he said "in a pandemic, no one has any native immunity to it..." and that's just plain not true for the 1918 2009 case. 3. Straw man, see previous post. Not a straw man, I just misunderstood your point, because your point doesn't directly address the point of this thread. But as far as the video goes, it isn't a straw man. He's talking specifically about the risk of this flu strain, not some vague 'sometime, eventually, we'll get hit with one' notion.

If you want to argue that the media attention for the swine flu isn't hype, you should be making comments about the swine flu. Heck, to me, even if you're right that eventually we'll have another mega flu, it is still hype, because there is no evidence that this one is it. It's 'every lottery has a winner' type logic. That fact doesn't make it reasonable to play. 4. There is nothing that will guarantee that a readily available flu vaccine will be ready for deployment during a pandemic. Again, this thread and that video are about the swine flu and there is a vaccine that will be available for next year's flu season.

ViewsofMars

Jun13-09, 03:56 PM

Again, this thread and that video are about the swine flu and there is a vaccine that will be available for next year's flu season.

Russ, the video that Moridin posted (#213) was on an Avian Flu Pandemic. It was taped on September, 26, 2005.:wink: It appears to me that you and Moridin are in a discussion about the Avian Flu not the Swine Flu.

Back on track. Dr. Chun announced to the United Nations health agency in my post #210, “I understand that production of vaccines for seasonal influenza will be completed soon, and that full capacity will be available to ensure the largest possible supply of pandemic vaccine in the months to come.” If I understand her correctly, the current vaccine available that is being used at this time for H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu) are antiviral drugs. There aren’t any medications as of yet, but hopefully according to Dr. Chun there might be a vaccine by Fall or Winter that will treat the infection for for type A -H1N1 which is a new strain. People don’t have the antibodies that protect against it as of now. It might be helpful to review the educational tutorial which explains about the Swine Flu (#214), H1N1 Flu (A,B,& C).

Thanks. Have a great weekend.

Lancelot59

Jun13-09, 04:26 PM

ViewsofMars

Jun13-09, 05:41 PM

Lancelot59, addressing strickly your remarks. Dr Margaret Chan, Director-General of the World Health Organization said the following:

We know that the novel H1N1 virus preferentially infects younger people. In nearly all areas with large and sustained outbreaks, the majority of cases have occurred in people under the age of 25 years.

In some of these countries, around 2% of cases have developed severe illness, often with very rapid progression to life-threatening pneumonia.

Most cases of severe and fatal infections have been in adults between the ages of 30 and 50 years.

This pattern is significantly different from that seen during epidemics of seasonal influenza, when most deaths occur in frail elderly people.

Many, though not all, severe cases have occurred in people with underlying chronic conditions. Based on limited, preliminary data, conditions most frequently seen include respiratory diseases, notably asthma, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, autoimmune disorders, and obesity.

At the same time, it is important to note that around one third to half of the severe and fatal infections are occurring in previously healthy young and middle-aged people.

Without question, pregnant women are at increased risk of complications. This heightened risk takes on added importance for a virus, like this one, that preferentially infects younger age groups.

Finally, and perhaps of greatest concern, we do not know how this virus will behave under conditions typically found in the developing world. To date, the vast majority of cases have been detected and investigated in comparatively well-off countries.
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_pandemic_phase6_20090611/en/index.html

Lancelot59, I take offense to your particular remark, "The panic and rush to use drugs is what will really cause problems later on down the road...." I have asthma. If I didn't take a drug for it then I wouldn't be able to enjoy my outdoor life as much as I do. If I happen to be walking on a windy day when there is oftentimes a high pollen count in spring, summer, or winter whether it be in a city or woodland area out in mountains, and I have forgotten, because I was rushing around too much, to take my medicine then my joy is stolen from me since I have to curtail my fun. I like to have fun. :biggrin: Fortunately, I don't take any other type of prescribed medication. I'm pretty darn heathy though I realize that isn't always the case with other humans whose health depend on pharmaceuticals.

As far as A-H1N1 is concerned, we have to remember that nobody knows yet how this new stain of virus started so there is no blame to be placed on anything.

Lancelot59

Jun13-09, 05:51 PM

I don't mean to cause offence. For things like asthma drugs are necessary.

I meant for bacterial and viral infections. Lots of these organisms are becoming immune to antibiotics because of how much they are used to combat them. I guess I should have worded that differently. Sorry.

ViewsofMars

Jun13-09, 06:24 PM

Forgiven. :smile: Only a doctor can prescribe medication. I trust my doctor.:wink: If I need an antibiotic he will be the one who knows.

Moridin

Jun14-09, 10:56 AM

Oh, ok - you're not saying that the current flu will be the one. Well ok, maybe, but then you're not really adding anything useful to a thread about swine flu by saying that. The question being posed isn't 'will we eventually get hit by another mega flu', it is "is the swine flu a threat". And your previous post was about the hype of this flu not being excessive.

It is certainly useful to this thread since it outlines the possibilities that exist for it to have similar effects as the other, more lethal, pandemics. Similarly, the "it is all a hype" position outlines the possibilities for it to not have similar effects as the other, more lethal, pandemics. Both positions contribute to the discussion since we cannot in practice predict whether or not (or when) this or a virus will mutate to a more virulent form.

I have no objection to the rest of the content of your post, since it was entirely convincing.

Moridin

Jun14-09, 10:58 AM

The swine flu, as said before is going to really only be a problem in densely populated areas.

I really think this latest flu is our own fault. We keep dumping so many antibiotics on things that now many things are is immune to them. The panic and rush to use drugs is what will really cause problems later on down the road.

Viruses does not generally respond to antibiotics anyway, but I agree with the overall argument. We have been playing with the devil for quite some time with inconsistent treatments and of course the evolutionary arms race will continue regardless, but we can hinder or contribute to this process.

Count Iblis

Jun14-09, 11:06 AM

Lancelot59

Jun14-09, 12:09 PM

Natural selection has to happen somehow. It sounds bad, but that's the unfortunate reality. If the black plague hadn't happened we would have been massively overpopulated around the year 2000.

It's an even more horrible scenario when you really take a look at how many people fall under that one third alone.

ViewsofMars

Jun14-09, 01:47 PM

How can this not be alarming:
At the same time, it is important to note that around one third to half of the severe and fatal infections are occurring in previously healthy young and middle-aged people.
So, assuming that swine flu does not cause more casualties than ordinary flu, we can take the statistics of any ordinary flu epidemic and then asumme that a third to a half of the fatalities will be " in previously healthy young and middle-aged people". Sounds quite a horrible scenario to me.

Count Iblis, the quote you are referring to is the novel virus [A(H1N1)] that UN health chief Dr. Margaret Chan is speaking about. Please reread my post from the United Nation News Center, (#210). It states, “Dr. Chan added that the most severe and fatal infections have been in adults between the ages of 30 and 50 years, a significantly different pattern to epidemics of regular seasonal flu which generally claims frail, elderly people.” Ok, we know that regular seasonal flu usually affect the elderly whereas this new strain (novel) has been affecting the 'healthy young' and 'middle -aged people'.

If you read the entire article I presented in post #210 and not only the snippet that I presented then you would know that it also states:

The upgrade to Phase 6 means that sustained human-to-human transmission of the virus has spread beyond North America, where it was concentrated, with WHO reporting 28,774 verified cases of the infection in 74 countries, including 144 deaths, as of this morning. [June, 11, 2009]

The good news is that 28,630 have survived the novel virus A(H1N1).:smile: With teary eyes, the sad news is 144 people did die.

I'm a positive thinking individual, always hoping for the best, and most definately a firm supporter of the scientific community and technology. Here's an article that brings a big smile to my face. It's from Los Alamos National Laboratory! Go Alamos! Hometown of innovative brains! (Love ya guys.):biggrin:Fast Pandemic Detection Tool Ready to Fight Flu
http://www.lanl.gov/news/index.php/fuseaction/home.story/story_id/16785