Is the World Really Ending in 2012 as Some Predictors Claim?

[Dingo69]

I am interested in verifying the following claim:

The most interesting is that the sun will pass through the
galactic center (from Earth's vantage point) on Dec 21, 2012, which is when
the Mayan calendar "ends" (and is also the winter solstice).​

I'm having a discussion where my argument is that the world won't end in 2012 like many doom predictors claim. Can this claim even be accurately proven/disproven?

Also, if there any way to tell when our solar system will line up with the galactic plane? I have to imagine when dealing with such vast distances and taking measurements from the inside, it has to be difficult to pinpoint.

 

[malawi_glenn]

Sun will not pass through the center of Milky Way. Sun is orbiting around it.

 

[D H]

Even if the Mayan calendar ended on December 21, 2012, so what? Does your car stop running when your odometer hits 100,000 miles? No. Moreover, the Mayan calendar does not end on December 21, 2012.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesoamerican_Long_Count_calendar#Summary

Despite the publicity generated by the 2012 date, Susan Milbraath, curator of Latin American Art and Archaeology at the Florida Museum of Natural History, stated that "We [the archaeological community] have no record or knowledge that [the Maya] would think the world would come to an end" in 2012.

The crossing of the galactic plane is BS piled on top of BS. First, we do not know the shape of the galaxy well enough to even say something as precise as this. Second, how exactly does this purported crossing of the galactic plane spell the end of the Earth? It doesn't.

 

[Dingo69]

Clarification - when they said "the sun will pass through the
galactic center (from Earth's vantage point)", they don't mean physically pass through it, but that the three points of the Earth sun and galactic center will form a straight line with the sun at the center.

And I agree 100% with the absurdity of the claims. I'm just looking for as much evidence as possible to convince others of that fact.

Thanks!

 

[russ_watters]

Whether the sun, earth, and galactic center form a straight line on that date depends on how precise you want to be with calling it an "alignment". Here's a screenshot of Starry Night for that day. The sun, viewed from earth, is 6 degrees, 38 minutes away from being aligned with the galactic center. The actual closest alignment is on December 18th of every year (just 5 degrees, 41 minutes), with the alignment on that date changing very little from year to year. It oscillates 2.7 times per orbit, which is 225-230 million years. Given the length of that timescale, it would be impossible to measure a year-to-year change in our alignment to pinpoint an exact year (much less day) that we cross it. But I've found sites that say we are currently on an up-swing in our orbit, moving away from the galactic plane.

But as DH said, there is no need to go to such lengths to debunk this. My calendar ends every year and the world hasn't ended yet. The Mayan's just need to go to Staples and pick up next milenia's version of their calendar or get the Y2012 update for Windows to make sure it rolls over.

 

[DaveC426913]

Can this claim even be accurately proven/disproven?

It most certainly can. Check back here on Dec 22, 2012.


OK, all seriousness aside. It can't be proven or disproven. What can be shown (to a reasonable person) is that all these supposed confluences of events are nonsense and therefore there is no reason to think the world will end on that day any more or less than any other.

 

[Dingo69]

Thanks for the insight folks. What is blatantly obvious to you and me (and other logically minded people), is often difficult to grasp for people who consider retirement planning to consist of buying lottery tickets. Having some real facts to reinforce my arguments helps dramatically.

 

[Born2Lead]

The only thing evident in these chaos is that people are making money by releasing books and I am sure as the date approaches, more are going to get panic like they did before Y2K and do wrong things. There was, though, a tv program on NOVA channel regarding the SUN crossing the center of the galaxy. There is a possibility, according to experts that the Earth poles may switch and it could result in unexpected behaviour in lots of electronics. And the date is set to DEC 20012. So it's anybody's guess.

 

[russ_watters]

The Earth is currently believed to be in a pole flip event. This happens occasionally and is little to worry about except that you'll need to relabel your compass - in a few thousand years. The worst effects that are possible come from the fact that the magnetic field is what deflects charged particles from solar flares and CMEs and as a result, the effects of these events (which already produce power outages and damage satellites) could be worse.

The collapse of the Earth's magnetic field, which both guards the planet and guides many of its creatures, appears to have started in earnest about 150 years ago. The field's strength has waned 10 to 15 percent, and the deterioration has accelerated of late, increasing debate over whether it portends a reversal of the lines of magnetic force that normally envelop the Earth.

During a reversal, the main field weakens, almost vanishes, then reappears with opposite polarity. Afterward, compass needles that normally point north would point south, and during the thousands of years of transition, much in the heavens and Earth would go askew.

A reversal could knock out power grids, hurt astronauts and satellites, widen atmospheric ozone holes, send polar auroras flashing to the equator and confuse birds, fish and migratory animals that rely on the steadiness of the magnetic field as a navigation aid. But experts said the repercussions would fall short of catastrophic, despite a few proclamations of doom and sketchy evidence of past links between field reversals and species extinctions.

Although a total flip may be hundreds or thousands of years away, the rapid decline in magnetic strength is already damaging satellites.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9803E3DD1E3BF930A25754C0A9629C8B63

 

[Marbaus]

Clarification - when they said "the sun will pass through the
galactic center (from Earth's vantage point)", they don't mean physically pass through it, but that the three points of the Earth sun and galactic center will form a straight line with the sun at the center.

And I agree 100% with the absurdity of the claims. I'm just looking for as much evidence as possible to convince others of that fact.
Thanks!

While there might not be any truth to the claim of 'the end of time', referencing the Mayans, there should be some evidence BEFORE you begin to claim such items as facts, as stated.

Now writing on the subject of the galactic plane: What evidence supports the effects of such a difference. The facts are that the world does go through these types of events and it does take some change in our solar enviorment to create such events. It seems that these changes, when passing through the plane, could be something we know little of and therefore cannot rule out an increased risk of such events.

Do not just blow it off. Research and understand by the science of the matter, not what you want to believe or hear. Use more observation and look beyond the majority opinion.

Seek truth and you cannot fail. I hope the fear mongers are wrong though I have not read supportive evidence to sugest a strong fact on either side of the arguemnt.

I am trying to get people to actually do the research and stop making assumptions. Its too great of a risk to slack off in this area.

The point is that one generation will be faced with an event that will threaten the world. Its likely that generation will be just as apathetic as we are today, unless we take changes to our solar enviorment seriously use fact as fact.

As far as I can tell we don't know very much about this galactic plane and most certianly not enough to begin to make statements of 'safe' or 'sorry'.

Keep researching there are answers, but there is only one truth.

 

[russ_watters]

Do not just blow it off. Research and understand by the science of the matter, not what you want to believe or hear. Use more observation and look beyond the majority opinion.

The most important thing to take from this thread is that there is no science to "the matter". It's a basic crackpot hoax. That is why we blow it off.

If there were something here to research, research would be done.

 

[Chronos]

I'm hosting a Mayan calendar party on Dec 22, 2012. Disregard this announcement if the world ends on Dec 21, 2012. Also, if the Earth's magnetic field does not reverse by then, I'm planning to sponsor a pole flipping contest.

 

[schroder]

The most important thing to take from this thread is that there is no science to "the matter". It's a basic crackpot hoax. That is why we blow it off.

If there were something here to research, research would be done.

I agree with statement entirely as far as the Mayan Myth is concerned. What I am interested in discussing is the crossing of the galactic plane within the context of astronomy. What I would like to know is how we can determine our present “plumb bob” distance above this imaginary plane and in what relative direction are we moving? I have done some researching on the www and it seems to me there is no real consensus on this as far as I can tell. Some related numbers I have come up with are:
Distance from our solar system to galactic center ~ 26,000 lyr.
Thickness of the galactic disk is anywhere from 1000 – 3000 lyr.
Tilt of the galactic equator to the ecliptic is 62.6 degrees.
Tilt of eatrh’s equator to the ecliptic is 23.5 degrees.
Angle between the projection of the ecliptic on the Earth and the center of galaxy ~ 2 degrees. This angle seems to me to be the most important for this calculation but it also is one of the most unreliable because of the precession of the equinoxes and the other tilts mentioned above.
From this, I have made my own very crude calculation based on the tangent of 2 degrees as the angle between Earth and galactic center and the baseline distance of 26,000 lyrs as being just tan 2 deg. multiplied by 26,000 = 907 lyrs as the height of the Earth above the galactic plane. Before the “real” astronomers pounce on me, I admit this is a very crude approximation and I have no confidence in it at all. I am hoping someone can show me the proper way to calculate this as well as the correct height. Also, is there any way at all to know in what direction we are moving with reference to this plane? I realize with an orbit time of 250 million years in which the Earth cycles through the plane 2.7 times, this would be extremely difficult to determine.
Thanks for any and all inputs!

 

[Marbaus]

The most important thing to take from this thread is that there is no science to "the matter". It's a basic crackpot hoax. That is why we blow it off.

If there were something here to research, research would be done.

Actually there is something to research. The whole point of the 'concept' of reseach is to learn about unknown frontiers. The galactic plane is one such frontier. There is a Canadian group that is pouring out data from this plane on a daily basis. Like I said if you actually did the research you would have known this.

Nothing is a 'hoax' until there is sufficient evidence to such claims for either side. As far as I can see many people are wasting time here creating false claims and using totals such as '100%' which does not exist in the science relm.

This forum seems like an awesome idea but I have found the lack of researchers here a great disappointment. Good luck to you all and for those of you who actually do the experimental and observational reserach, I tip my hat to you.

Good bye.

 

[DaveC426913]

Actually there is something to research. The whole point of the 'concept' of reseach is to learn about unknown frontiers. The galactic plane is one such frontier. There is a Canadian group that is pouring out data from this plane on a daily basis. Like I said if you actually did the research you would have known this.

Nothing is a 'hoax' until there is sufficient evidence to such claims for either side. As far as I can see many people are wasting time here creating false claims and using totals such as '100%' which does not exist in the science relm.

This forum seems like an awesome idea but I have found the lack of researchers here a great disappointment. Good luck to you all and for those of you who actually do the experimental and observational reserach, I tip my hat to you.

Good bye.

Wait. You're going to get incensed and leave in a huff because you didn't like the way a thread went that was about 2012 doomsday claims? Oh come on.

Are you trying to get painted with that same brush?

If you wanted to explore something that has substance, feel free to start a new thread.


Otherwise, there are plenty of other Fora out there that will be happy to indulge a desire for speculation, from the merely edgy to the truly silly.

 

[russ_watters]

Actually there is something to research. The whole point of the 'concept' of reseach is to learn about unknown frontiers. The galactic plane is one such frontier. There is a Canadian group that is pouring out data from this plane on a daily basis. Like I said if you actually did the research you would have known this.

Whether there is anything interesting about the galactic plane isn't the subject of this thread. The subject of the thread is the Mayan end-of-the-world hoax.

Nothing is a 'hoax' until there is sufficient evidence to such claims for either side. As far as I can see many people are wasting time here creating false claims and using totals such as '100%' which does not exist in the science relm.

That's not what a hoax is. A hoax is a made-up claim with made-up evidence. Ie, nothing. Nothing to prove, nothing to research.

 

[Chronos]

Crossing the galactic 'plane' is almost as much myth as the Mayan calender. The galaxy is not a rigid, symmetrical object with a clearly definable axis, or plane perpendicular to that axis. The time when the solar system will cross the galactic 'plane' is fuzzy. Proclaiming to know the the exact year, month, day, hour and minute - priceless: Ascribing deep, metaphysical significance to the 'event' - goofy. Earth crosses the 'plane' of some galaxy somewhere in the universe every day.

 

[schroder]

Crossing the galactic 'plane' is almost as much myth as the Mayan calender. The galaxy is not a rigid, symmetrical object with a clearly definable axis, or plane perpendicular to that axis. The time when the solar system will cross the galactic 'plane' is fuzzy. Proclaiming to know the the exact year, month, day, hour and minute - priceless: Ascribing deep, metaphysical significance to the 'event' - goofy. Earth crosses the 'plane' of some galaxy somewhere in the universe every day.

Personally, I have no time to spend on Mayan Myths, so I attempted to steer this thread to the practical matter of astronomy and ask some questions which I thought were interesting. I understand that there is no physical galactic plane any more than the Earth has a physical equator. But they do both exist as imaginary planes in space, and as such we should be able to make at least an estimate of where our solar system is with respect to that plane. Am I mistaken in this belief? Since it has already been determined that the solar system oscillates above and below said plane, I believe it is fair and even scientifically correct to say that at some point we do cross the plane. Whether or not “things happen” when we cross this plane is of no interest to me at all. I simply would like to determine where we are with respect to the plane and if possible in what direction we are headed. Thanks again!

 

[russ_watters]

Well, you are saying contradictory things. The Earth's equator can be defined and located with exquisite precision. An imaginary line, for sure, but one with a clearly-defined position. But at the same time, you seem to acknowledge no such level of accuracy is possible for the galactic plane. It is both imaginary and only locatable by estimation.

This is because a galaxy is not a single coherent object (unlike earth), it's 100 billion, so finding the plane of rotation is really just averaging the orbital planes of all the objects in it.

Lets try a different angle: You're an astronomer and you want to do a research project to better locate the galactic plane. I'm your boss/funding source. What does your proposal say? Why are you doing the project? Why is it worthy of funding (not to mention your time and effort)? What theory are you attempting to test/phenomena are you trying to explore?

 

[schroder]

Well, you are saying contradictory things. The Earth's equator can be defined and located with exquisite precision. An imaginary line, for sure, but one with a clearly-defined position. But at the same time, you seem to acknowledge no such level of accuracy is possible for the galactic plane. It is both imaginary and only locatable by estimation.

This is because a galaxy is not a single coherent object (unlike earth), it's 100 billion, so finding the plane of rotation is really just averaging the orbital planes of all the objects in it.

Lets try a different angle: You're an astronomer and you want to do a research project to better locate the galactic plane. I'm your boss/funding source. What does your proposal say? Why are you doing the project? Why is it worthy of funding (not to mention your time and effort)? What theory are you attempting to test/phenomena are you trying to explore?

As a scientist (but not an astronomer) I was simply interested in how accurately we can determine the position of our solar system within the galaxy. One parameter would be the distance from the center, which I believe has been determined to be approximately 26,000 lyr. Another would be the distance from the plane of the disk, which is what I was asking about. However, for whatever reason, it seems no straight forward answers are forthcoming. And, with all due respect, Russ, you are not my boss!

 

[rollthedice]

The mayan culture used the stars to create their calender. it only makes sense that they believed once they reached a point where they couldn't predict the placement of the stars in the sky that time ends because there way to keep time ends.i agree with the y2k-mayan calendar similarities. we worried about our computers and how they keep time as the mayans worried about how their (computer) kept time. anyone can say hey this is the day the world will end all I am saying is give me some proof some hard scientific evidence that says we won't exsist beyond dec 2012 then i might believe it. don't just come at me with the calander of an ancient culture. even as advanced as they were there's no way that their calander holds that kind of merit.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I don't understand why this doesn't just die.

(1) The claim that celestial mechanics predicts the Earth will pass through the galactic center on December 21, 2012 is false.

(2) The claim that celestial mechanics predicts the Earth sun and galactic core will form a line on December 21, 2012 is false.

(3) The claim that the Mayan calendar cannot represent a date after December 21, 2012 is false.

I don't think there is a single true statement in the set.

 

[Utwig]

Hi,

Interesting that a lot of the replies were very quick to dismiss the existence of the galactic plane/equator/whatever you want to call it. I’m guessing the ones quick to dismiss the whole thing are probably not involved in any studies like the one referenced in the link below..

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/09/080915210506.htm

From various other articles I have read, it doesn’t look like we can put an exact time and date on the passage, but it should happen at some point in the next 7 years or so.

As for the Mayans, I don’t think their calendar stops on the date mentioned, it just notches up to another set of numbers (like 1999 to 2000) I remember reading somewhere its in base 15 where the prediction it stops assumes its in base 8 or something.

I doubt any of what I have written really helps, but it is debate, and that is what science is all about isn’t it? well that and peer review. Good luck on your quest to pin the date down though, let us know what you dig up in your efforts, I’ll certainly read it with an open mind.

Utwig

 

[russ_watters]

From various other articles I have read, it doesn’t look like we can put an exact time and date on the passage, but it should happen at some point in the next 7 years or so.

Do you have any sources for that? I posted image caps of planetarium software that does not support that.

 

[Utwig]

Hi,

Nah, not really, it was something I remember reading while looking for the orbital period of Sol around the galaxy itself. As it wasn’t the focus of the study at the time it just got filed under ‘Interesting junk I can bore the crap out of people at parties with’, hence the word should rather than will.

If I come across a firm article again, Ill note the link and post it up.

What software do you have? I’m on the look out for something I can use to show my little boy how to locate stars with, he saw his first shooting star last night and is well chuffed up!

Utwig

 

[russ_watters]

Starry Night: http://www.starrynightstore.com/

 

[raedwulf]

The conventional scientific basis for the implications of 21-12-2012 have been developed by Dr Paul A LaViolette. His work concerns the existence of high-energy waves that propagate along the galactic plane with the singularity at the centre as their source. Broadly, two effects are noted as we cross the elliptic. The region of space in which we will be traveling will be dustier and the sun and all the planets will be hotter as the heliosphere becomes compromised. As we cross the elliptic, we will be at some risk in being inundated by a wave of intense radiation.

The first effect has already been confirmed. We are presently passing through an exceedingly dusty region of local space. The sun and the planets are also heating and the outer planets have already undergone magnetic reversals.

As for the likelihood of the second, beyond the confirmation of much of Mr LaViolette's research, one might consider the following recent and very shocking revelation of the decay of the solar heliosphere and terrestrial magnetosphere.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/16dec_giantbreach.htm

Regards,

raedwulf

 

[Vanadium 50]

I'm afraid that Dr. LaViolette's work is largely crackpottery, and unsupported by the link you posted.

And here's the problem with this kind of crackpottery - it's infinitely flexible. In 2012 there will be a gravitational alignment...no, a pole flip...no, a dark tenth (I guess 9th, now that Pluto has been demoted) planet...no, some sort of danger in the galactic plane.

There are only two common themes in all of this. 2012 is common, and the fact that these are totally devoid of evidence is common.

 

[raedwulf]

Dear Vanadium:

You have mistaken me for someone else.
I said nothing about

"a gravitational alignment...no, a pole flip...no, a dark tenth (I guess 9th, now that Pluto has been demoted) planet...no, some sort of danger in the galactic plane"


and, as for whether my link supports or refutes my reference, I will leave that up to the readership. The news is very recent, very interesting, and not alarming for nothing. It begs the question as to how the heliosphere is being degraded and what implications exist to the significant impairment of its protection.

Seems pretty hot.
You can quote me on that.

Respectfully,
raedwulf

 

[Nereid]

Dear Vanadium:

You have mistaken me for someone else.
I said nothing about

"a gravitational alignment...no, a pole flip...no, a dark tenth (I guess 9th, now that Pluto has been demoted) planet...no, some sort of danger in the galactic plane"


and, as for whether my link supports or refutes my reference, I will leave that up to the readership. The news is very recent, very interesting, and not alarming for nothing. It begs the question as to how the heliosphere is being degraded and what implications exist to the significant impairment of its protection.

Seems pretty hot.
You can quote me on that.

Respectfully,
raedwulf

The link does not support your reference*.

That particular piece of news is, indeed, recent; however, the kind of events reported are quite common, and so nothing to be alarmed about.

What does "the heliosphere is being degraded" mean?

* if you think it does, how about you write a paper on it and get it published in a relevant, peer-reviewed journal?

 

[russ_watters]

I'm afraid that Dr. LaViolette's work is largely crackpottery...

To put a finer point on it, his website states explicitly that his purpose is to circumvent the scientific process. The guildelines of PhysicsForums state that discussions here are constrained to adhere to the scientific process. Please keep that in mind in further posts, raedwulf.

 

[LURCH]

Now, it seems to em a recall hearing one fairly reasonable connection between the Mayan calendar and Doomsday. It was theorized by some that the periodical mass extinctions found in the geological record are caused by meteorite impacts, and these impacts are caused by some external influence altering orbits within the asteroid belt. I can't recall, ATM, where I read this, but some astronomers were speculating that the Solar system's passage through the more densely populated space of the galactic plain may subject it to gravitational forces that effect the asteroids.

I'm going to see if I can find a reference to that theory. It's a bit thin, but not too implausable.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Lurch, I think you're thinking about Gillman and Erenler, International Journal of Astrobiology , Volume 7, Issue 01, January 2008, pp 17-26.

While the idea is intriguing, I don't think the evidence presented is terribly strong. I'll confess that the authors lack of use of significant figures put me in a bad mood, but essentially they argue that periodicities of mass extinctions correlate with the periodicities of the orbital motion of the sun - when it enters various spiral arms, and when it crosses the midplane.

I see two problems. One is that Spitzer measurements indicate that there aren't as many arms as Gillman and Erenler thought. The other is that they show no evidence of when the sun crosses the midplane; Gillman and Erenler pick one mass extinction as a guess as when the sun crosses the midplane and then show that other extinctions also correlate - but this is a far cry from evidence.

Now, onto 2012. The claim that the Mayan calendar can't represent dates after 2012 is just plain wrong: it would be exactly analogous to claiming our calendar can't represent dates after 2100. Even if it were true, the idea that a calendar deficiency somehow indicates the end of the world is just silly. If you use Gillman and Erenler as support for this, their paper suggests that we have tens of millions of years before we cross the galactic plane, not 7. Furthermore, the idea that there is a specific date where there is a problem doesn't accurately reflect the scale of things: the sun moves about 10 million miles per day. So the "danger zone" would be mighty thin. In fact, any sort of reasonable thickness to some putative danger zone, coupled with the time it would take for the purported mechanism to work would mean that the entire Mayan calendar covers this kind of event.

I'm afraid that the idea of 2012 is wrong on so many levels that it's difficult to tell where one error stops and the next begins.

 

[DaveC426913]

Or, more generally,

I'm afraid that the idea of 2012 is wrong on so many levels that ...

... I can't fathom how this thread has remained unlocked for as long as it has.

 

[LURCH]

Lurch, I think you're thinking about Gillman and Erenler, International Journal of Astrobiology , Volume 7, Issue 01, January 2008, pp 17-26.

While the idea is intriguing, I don't think the evidence presented is terribly strong. I'll confess that the authors lack of use of significant figures put me in a bad mood, but essentially they argue that periodicities of mass extinctions correlate with the periodicities of the orbital motion of the sun - when it enters various spiral arms, and when it crosses the midplane.

I see two problems. One is that Spitzer measurements indicate that there aren't as many arms as Gillman and Erenler thought. The other is that they show no evidence of when the sun crosses the midplane; Gillman and Erenler pick one mass extinction as a guess as when the sun crosses the midplane and then show that other extinctions also correlate - but this is a far cry from evidence.

Although that wasn't the article I read ( I read this about 10-15 yrs ago), it sounds almost identicle. I remember thinking that the periods were all wrong. A galactic year is about 250 MY. So, we would cross the galactic plane every 125 (or so). This would be half the frequency of periodic extinction events. I had not heard of the extra orbital dynamics added by including orbtis around the Orion arm.