Is the Universe Governed by Determinism or Indeterminism?

[Royce]

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/determinism

de•ter•min•ism (d -tûr m -n z m) n.
The philosophical doctrine that every state of affairs, including every human event, act, and decision is the inevitable consequence of antecedent states of affairs.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_will#Determinism_versus_indeterminism

Determinism holds that each state of affairs is necessitated (determined) by the states of affairs that preceded it, an extension of cause and effect. Indeterminism holds this proposition to be incorrect, and that there are events which are not entirely determined by previous states of affairs. The idea of determinism is sometimes illustrated by the story of Laplace's demon, who knows all the facts about the past and present and all the natural laws that govern our world, and uses this knowledge to foresee the future, down to every detail.

As anyone who has read many of my threads or posts knows I believe in a non-deterministic universe for both logical scientific reasons and religious reasons. I do not understand why so many here seem to believe or profess to believe in determinism. Is it taught in college now-a-days as an accepted fact? Is is a requirement of the physicalist/atheist view point?

Please indicate your choice and then give your personal reasons for that choice. I am really interested and curious in what all of you think and believe and why?

 

[moving finger]

de•ter•min•ism (d -tûr m -n z m) n.
The philosophical doctrine that every state of affairs, including every human event, act, and decision is the inevitable consequence of antecedent states of affairs.

Determinism holds that each state of affairs is necessitated (determined) by the states of affairs that preceded it, an extension of cause and effect.

Firstly, thank you for offering very clear definitions!
Unfortunately I do not agree with your chosen definition of determinism - it implicitly assumes a temporal dimension in which "past" events cause "future" events, however it may be the case that past, present and future all co-exist in some timeless, self-consistent reality (in such a case it is just as true to say that "the future causes the past" as it is to say "the past causes the future").
With this clarification, I firmly place myself on the "I believe in determinism" bandwagon.

MF

 

[Tournesol]

however it may be the case that past, present and future all co-exist in some timeless, self-consistent reality (in such a case it is just as true to say that "the future causes the past" as it is to say "the past causes the future").

Or just as untrue. Aruably, causality requires time to make sense.

With this clarification, I firmly place myself on the "I believe in determinism" bandwagon.

You surely don't think d-ism is an implication of atemporality?

 

[moving finger]

Hi again Tournesol

Or just as untrue.

With respect, the thread is not about what we can argue is or is not true, it is about “what do you believe?”. I would argue the truth or falsity of indeterminism vs determinism is beyond our epistemic horizon, therefore it does indeed come down simply to “belief”.

Aruably, causality requires time to make sense.

And causality is arguably a macroscopic illusion.
Which is why I do not think of determinism in terms of causality, but rather in terms of self-consistent (timeless) histories.

You surely don't think d-ism is an implication of atemporality?

I never said that.
I said :

With this clarification, I firmly place myself on the "I believe in determinism" bandwagon.

In other words, I believe in determinism but not necessarily the determinism as defined by Royce above.
Always good to exchange ideas with you,
MF

 

[moving finger]

I do not understand why so many here seem to believe or profess to believe in determinism.

- similarly I do not understand why some here seem to believe or profess to believe in indeterminism, when determinism seems to me to be eminently more logical and rational.

MF

 

[Q_Goest]

I'd prefer not to state "beliefs" as opposed to simply accepting that we can't be sure either way. So far, hidden variable theories seem to have been disproved, though I understand there's a class of hidden variable theories which may actually be possible.

Question: Isn't reductionism and determinism the same thing? Is proving one to be false also proving the other to be false? What's the difference?

 

[moving finger]

I'd prefer not to state "beliefs" as opposed to simply accepting that we can't be sure either way. So far, hidden variable theories seem to have been disproved, though I understand there's a class of hidden variable theories which may actually be possible.

That is correct.
In fact the results of entanglement experiments show that no "local reality" theory can be correct - hidden variables or no hidden variables. So whatever reality is, it is non-local.
There is no evidence showing that non-local hidden variables theories are necessarily incorrect, therefore if (as you say) you prefer not to state beliefs then by voting in this poll you have (with respect) just erred...(because the brutal truth is that neither determinism nor indeterminism can be shown to be false...)

Question: Isn't reductionism and determinism the same thing?

No.

Is proving one to be false also proving the other to be false?

No.

What's the difference?

Reductionism is the belief that everything about a system can be explained by reducing the system to its parts. Reductionism cannot account for emergent properties or emergent behaviour in complex systems. It has nothing directly to do with determinism per se.

MF

 

[Royce]

- similarly I do not understand why some here seem to believe or profess to believe in indeterminism, when determinism seems to me to be eminently more logical and rational.

MF

As I have said in a few threads and post, I believe that chance and chaos play a significant role in our universe, world and lives. The Uncertainty Principle, QED, sexual reproduction and the chaos of weather and climate patterns all support this position IMHO.

I also am a firm believer of Free Will which is not possible or allowed for in a strongly determinant Universe.

So far as I have been able to deduct the basis for most determinant beliefs is cause and effect.

 

[moving finger]

I believe that chance and chaos play a significant role in our universe, world and lives. The Uncertainty Principle, QED, sexual reproduction and the chaos of weather and climate patterns all support this position IMHO.

Please allow me to answer to each one of these.

The Uncertainty Principle
This principle places a limit on what we can KNOW about reality, it identifies an epistemic horizon, beyond which science is unable to proceed. This is the basis of the Copenhagen Interpretation of QM, which basically says that it is meaningless to ask "what really happens?" in (for example) the 2-slit experiment, because we can never know "what really happens". All we can ever know is what we measure, and what we measure is limited by the Uncertainty Principle (UP). However, NONE of this (and certainly not the UP) necessarily implies that reality is intrinsically indeterministic - it may be the case that it is deterministic (see Non-Local Hidden Variables theories) - we simply do not know.

QED
Can be viewed as a purely deterministic interpretation. I see no evidence for indeterminism here? Or perhaps you can elaborate.

Sexual Reproduction
With respect – I am not sure what you are trying to suggest here. Are you suggesting that sexual reproduction is an indeterministic process? On what basis? Do you have any evidence for this? As far as I am aware, sexual reproduction can be explained and understood scientifically on purely deterministic grounds.

Chaos
Chaos is a feature of a deterministic system – it has nothing to do with indeterminism per se. Chaos arises purely from the sensitive dependence of some deterministic systems on initial conditions. Or do you have any evidence that chaos arises necessarily from indeterminism? Perhaps you can share that with us?

In conclusion, therefore, there is no evidence in any of the above for the presence of indeterminism.

I also am a firm believer of Free Will which is not possible or allowed for in a strongly determinant Universe.

Can you explain exactly what you mean by Free Will (ie define the concept), and then explain how you think the introduction of indeterminism endows this kind of Free Will on an otherwise deterministic agent? (I have had may discussions on here about this subject, and I have never seen it done).

So far as I have been able to deduct the basis for most determinant beliefs is cause and effect.

Then you are incorrect in my case. My reason for belief in determinism is via Occam’s Razor – in other words I see no reason for invoking the hypothesis of any element of indeterminism in an otherwise deterministic world because I cannot see how indeterminism explains any feature of our universe.

With respect, I suspect many people cling on to a belief in indeterminism because they think that the following argument is rational :

“free will is incompatible with determinism – I believe that I have free will – therefore the world cannot be deterministic”.

This presupposes (a) that the free will they think they have actually exists, and (b) that indeterminism can somehow endow this kind of free will. But can anyone follow this through rationally and logically?

As always, With Respect

MF

 

[Q_Goest]

Reductionism is the belief that everything about a system can be explained by reducing the system to its parts.

I'd agree with your definition of reductionism. To expand a bit, reductionism assumes causal relationships exist and the mechanisms involved in those relationships produce a deterministic outcome. Alternatively, one could say in the broad sense of the word, one could have an indeterminate outcome from some given mechanism, but reducing any phenomenon to it's most fundamental level, the level of atoms and electrons, should essentially give us a deterministic model. I suppose one could say that reductionism is untrue but determinism still holds though I have trouble seeing how because if something is deterministic it implies causal relationships exist which can be reduced to the interaction of the various parts of the system.

Reductionism cannot account for emergent properties or emergent behaviour in complex systems.

If reductionism can't account for "emergent properties" (I'd disagree for the most part) then what is being done in science to determine what is producing these emergent properties? Generally, reductionism is widely accepted and thought to be sufficient to give us a TOE. Emergent properties are simply what we percieve from the complex interaction of fundamental particles of matter and energy. Can you suggest a physical phenomenon that can't be found to emerge from the interaction of matter and energy at some fundamental level?

 

[moving finger]

I'd agree with your definition of reductionism. To expand a bit, reductionism assumes causal relationships exist and the mechanisms involved in those relationships produce a deterministic outcome.

I would dispute that reductionism necessarily assumes determinism - such a state of affairs would imply that reductionism and indeterminism are incompatible. Why should this be the case? It is quite conceivable (imho) that someone could believe in both indeterminism and reductionism.

Alternatively, one could say in the broad sense of the word, one could have an indeterminate outcome from some given mechanism, but reducing any phenomenon to it's most fundamental level, the level of atoms and electrons, should essentially give us a deterministic model.

Alternatively, one could have an indeterministic outcome at the most fundamental level (isn’t this what indeterminists believe?)

I suppose one could say that reductionism is untrue but determinism still holds though I have trouble seeing how because if something is deterministic it implies causal relationships exist which can be reduced to the interaction of the various parts of the system.

With respect, this is the same problem of understanding that many reductionists have – they cannot see how it may not be possible to explain everything in reductionist terms. To a reductionist, “the whole” must always equate to “the sum of the parts”. But in reality there are cases where “the whole” is more than simply “the sum of the parts”.
An analogy is in order here, to clarify my point. There exists a "University of Oxford" (UK), but try (in the best reductionist tradition) to identify exactly what is the essence of the University of Oxford by looking in finer and finer detail, try to identify exactly where in space the University of Oxford is situated, try to point out the precise spatial coordinates to anyone, and you will fail. It is possible (via reductionism) to identify some of the components of the university – the various colleges, the libraries, the faculty, the students, etc etc, but look as hard as we might and we cannot identify anything that is the essence of the university.
Does this mean the University of Oxford does not exist? No.
Does this mean the University of Oxford exists but is actually located in another dimension or another world? No.
What it DOES mean is that the University of Oxford is not a single physical object, it is instead the emergent institution to which the various colleges, libraries and museums of Oxford University belong. We lose sight of the University of Oxford by trying to break it down into smaller and smaller parts.

Any attempt to equate the University of Oxford with a discrete physical object is an example of what the philosopher Gilbert Ryle calls a category error – thinking of the University in terms of the same kind of thing as the physical colleges that comprise the University. But the University is not that kind of thing at all, there is no single physical place or thing that you can point to and say “that is the University”. The University cannot be identified by reductionism alone, it is instead the emergent institution to which all of these physical components belong.

If reductionism can't account for "emergent properties" (I'd disagree for the most part) then what is being done in science to determine what is producing these emergent properties? Generally, reductionism is widely accepted and thought to be sufficient to give us a TOE.

And for every leading scientist you can cite who believes that reductionism can provide a ToE, I can cite one who thinks differently.
Imho there is an epistemic horizon defined by quantum uncertainty – it is in principle impossible for us to probe beyond this horizon. This means it will be in principle impossible to experimentally falsify any hypothesis (including a ToE) which purports to explain physics beyond this horizon.

Emergent properties are simply what we percieve from the complex interaction of fundamental particles of matter and energy. Can you suggest a physical phenomenon that can't be found to emerge from the interaction of matter and energy at some fundamental level?

But that is my whole point – emergent phenomena (by definition) DO emerge from interactions at a fundamantal level, but that does not mean they can be understood in their entirety by simple reductionist approaches.
Try, by breaking down the brain into smaller and smaller components, to explain how consciousness emerges from the interaction of matter and energy.

MF

 

[Q_Goest]

I would dispute that reductionism necessarily assumes determinism … It is quite conceivable (imho) that someone could believe in both indeterminism and reductionism.

Yes, I fully agree with that. I tried to point out that an alternative view could include indeterminism with reductionism, though I've noticed that arguing QM is indeterminate in the Physics forums will result in a rash of those who will point out fields and tensors and such things I've not delved into in order to point out how such terms as indeterminate can't necessarily be used. It seems even the terms determinate and indeterminate need refining for very picky philosophers. <smile>

Regarding the University of Oxford and similar ideas. Suggesting such things are emergent as philosophers often do I think misses the point entirely. The university consists of buildings and people, land and space in general. All of the matter and energy that makes up that volume of space called "Oxford" and all of the volume around it is under the sway of natural laws (whatever that means). The "idea" that the university has "emerged" out of anything is false, IMHO. Nothing has physically emerged, the idea of something being there which is more than the sum of the parts is only an idea. And an idea (to a computationalist/reductionist) is nothing but a configuration of neurons in a person's brain. So the emergent "Oxford University" can only "emerge" when neurons in a brain configure themselves to allow an idea to come about. That idea can only be defined in terms of other ideas, so the entire concept of "Oxford University" is only an idea that can be defined or undefined (ill-defined) by ideas. So how do ideas come about? From the configuration of neurons. But then again, the neurons can also be 'reduced'. I don't have to find or locate the volume of space called "Oxford University" because the entire concept is only contained in a pattern of atoms and molecules which make up the neurons that interact inside my brain.

MF, I agree with you that emergent phenomena can occur that are more than the sum of the individual parts, and there ARE physicists who would agree with that (most notably Laughlin) despite what I said earlier. But I don't think the line of reasoning typically used by philosophers can logically prove it. I think one has to come up with a logical test to show that a phenomenon occurs which can not be reduced to the interaction of it's constituent parts. The University of Oxford does not define a pheonomenon in the true sense of the word, it's an idea. A phenomenon would be a physical occurance which can come about that has to rely on something other than the fundamental interaction of it's constituent parts.

 

[Royce]

Please allow me to answer to each one of these.

The Uncertainty Principle
This principle places a limit on what we can KNOW about reality, it identifies an epistemic horizon, beyond which science is unable to proceed. This is the basis of the Copenhagen Interpretation of QM, , which basically says that it is meaningless to ask "what really happens?" in (for example) the 2-slit experiment, because we can never know "what really happens". All we can ever know is what we measure, and what we measure is limited by the Uncertainty Principle (UP). However, NONE of this (and certainly not the UP) necessarily implies that reality is intrinsically indeterministic - it may be the case that it is deterministic (see Non-Local Hidden Variables theories) - we simply do not know.

We have been over all this before; but, why not again and why not here?

The Copenhagen Interpretation of QM is but one interpretation of the Uncertainty Principle and not the only one nor the most modern.

Quantum uncertainty is "ontic" in the sense it is not really about what we can learn. But in quantum mechanics what "IS" depends completely on the interaction of a classical wave function with something that projects the wave state into a real value. "Something" is often but not always identified as an observer. So in this sense quantum ontology depends partly on epistemology. But within this constraint, uncertainty is as ontic as anything in QM. is a fundamental rule of QM and doesn't come out of experimental limitation but out of the basic math of QM.

From thread 05-16-2005 post #9 "A Case for an Indeterministic Universe"

[QUOTEQED
Can be viewed as a purely deterministic interpretation. I see no evidence for indeterminism here? Or perhaps you can elaborate.[/QUOTE]

The motion or bath of an electron moving from point A to point B will take any and all possible paths. It is impossible to know which one it may take. We can only calculate the Sum of Histories which approximate a probability curve. (This is not a direct quote but my paraphrasing of what I had in mind.

Sexual Reproduction
With respect – I am not sure what you are trying to suggest here. Are you suggesting that sexual reproduction is an indeterministic process? On what basis? Do you have any evidence for this? As far as I am aware, sexual reproduction can be explained and understood scientifically on purely deterministic grounds.

Many plants especially trees release their pollen to be carried by the wind to land and hopefully fertilize the female seeds of a differ plant or tree of the same species. Many lower marine animals such as oysters and coral release both their sperm and eggs to float in the water and be fertilized randomly.
Mammals release millions of sperm cells every time they mate and only one of those sperm will fertilize whichever egg it is the first to reach. These are all random events.

Chaos
Chaos is a feature of a deterministic system – it has nothing to do with indeterminism per se. Chaos arises purely from the sensitive dependence of some deterministic systems on initial conditions. Or do you have any evidence that chaos arises necessarily from indeterminism? Perhaps you can share that with us?

Chaos is the antithesis of determinism. Chaotic eddies will form randomly at random times throughout any system of moving fluid.

[QUO(TE]In conclusion, therefore, there is no evidence in any of the above for the presence of indeterminism.[/QUOTE]

There is no evidence only because you refuse to admit the possibility of anything to be random chance and therefore must be deterministic even in the face of numerous facts, truths and scientific findings, principles and understanding.

Can you explain exactly what you mean by Free Will (ie define the concept), and then explain how you think the introduction of indeterminism endows this kind of Free Will on an otherwise deterministic agent? (I have had may discussions on here about this subject, and I have never seen it done).

Once again:

Main Entry: free will
Function: noun
1 : voluntary choice or decision <I do this of my own free will>
2 : freedom of humans to make choices that are not determined by prior causes or by divine intervention.

free will
in humans, the power or capacity to choose among alternatives or to act in certain situations independently of natural, social, or divine restraints. Free will is denied by those who espouse any of various forms of determinism.

I do not think that indeterminism endows anything onto anything. I said that it allows the possibility of free will. I do not agree that any agent is completely deterministic.

Then you are incorrect in my case. My reason for belief in determinism is via Occam’s Razor – in other words I see no reason for invoking the hypothesis of any element of indeterminism in an otherwise deterministic world because I cannot see how indeterminism explains any feature of our universe.

You have already decided the the world is deterministic by the highlighted statement in the quote above. "My reason for belief in determinism...I see no reason...in an otherwise deterministic world." This is circular reasoning and not logical. Your mind is made up and you can and will rationalize it any and every way possible including illogical thinking dispute any and all evidence refuting your firm belief.

With respect, I suspect many people cling on to a belief in indeterminism because they think that the following argument is rational :

“free will is incompatible with determinism – I believe that I have free will – therefore the world cannot be deterministic”.

This presupposes (a) that the free will they think they have actually exists, and (b) that indeterminism can somehow endow this kind of free will. But can anyone follow this through rationally and logically?

You are accusing me and others of doing exactly what you are doing, as I showed above. I gave here and other threads and posts my logical reasons for believing in indeterminism, that chance and randomness play a significant role in the physical universe. I have given sources and quotes but none of that makes any difference because you mind is made up. So be it. Mine is too about some things. You have yet, in at least 3 different threads, to explain why or how you think that the universe is deterministic.

 

[moving finger]

It is quite conceivable (imho) that someone could believe in both indeterminism and reductionism.

Yes, I fully agree with that.

Thank you. Since we seem to agree that reductionism is compatible both with a belief in determinism and with a belief in indeterminism then I think we can move on – to steer this thread into a deeper discussion of reductionism per se would, with respect, take us off-topic.

Regards

MF

 

[moving finger]

Hi Royce

The Copenhagen Interpretation of QM is but one interpretation of the Uncertainty Principle and not the only one nor the most modern.

I would dispute that CI is a true interpretation (in the full sense of the word interpretation). CI places limits on our epistemic horizon. Any other hypothesis which tries to suggest “what is really going on” beyond that epistemic horizon is (according to scientific principles, and according to CI) pure speculation, metaphysical and unscientific.

Quantum uncertainty is "ontic" in the sense it is not really about what we can learn.

With respect, this is a matter of opinion, not fact. In my book, quantum uncertainty is merely epistemic, not ontic, and I would challenge anyone to prove this view wrong.

But in quantum mechanics what "IS" depends completely on the interaction of a classical wave function with something that projects the wave state into a real value.

Has anyone “seen” a classical wave function? The wave function is a mathematical construct generated to allow us to try and get a handle on what is “really” going on, but at the quantum level the macro-level analogies of “waves” and “particles” are just that – analogies. Nobody “knows” what is going on, and anyone who does claim to “know” is (with respect) a charlatan.

So in this sense quantum ontology depends partly on epistemology.

With respect, this is "back to front". To say that an ontology (ie the way things really are) depends on an epistemology (ie the way we see them) is just downright ridiculous.
It would be correct to say that the observer can never know the ontic properties, to an observer everything is epistemic (which is what CI says).

uncertainty is as ontic as anything in QM. is a fundamental rule of QM and doesn't come out of experimental limitation but out of the basic math of QM.

Epistemic uncertainty “comes out of” the dualism necessarily imposed by “observer” and “observed”. There is no getting away from this dualism. Classical physics assumes a passive observer, and in the quantum limit this assumption is invalid, and this is the source of epistemic uncertainty. But epistemic uncertainty does not necessarily imply ontic indeterminism. Ontic indeterminsim has never been, and never can be, unequivocally demonstrated.

QED
Can be viewed as a purely deterministic interpretation. I see no evidence for indeterminism here? Or perhaps you can elaborate.

The motion or bath of an electron moving from point A to point B will take any and all possible paths. It is impossible to know which one it may take.

We have a non-sequitur here. You say the electron “will” take any and all possible paths, and yet you also say it is impossible to know “which one” it may take.
With respect, if it takes “all possible paths” then it is meaningless to ask “which one does it take?”.
Apart from this, “impossible to know” literally implies at the most only epistemic uncertainty, it does not necessarily imply ontic indeterminism.

We can only calculate the Sum of Histories which approximate a probability curve

This is the way that we calculate (ie the maths), it says nothing about what is “really going on”.

Many plants especially trees release their pollen to be carried by the wind to land and hopefully fertilize the female seeds of a differ plant or tree of the same species. Many lower marine animals such as oysters and coral release both their sperm and eggs to float in the water and be fertilized randomly.
Mammals release millions of sperm cells every time they mate and only one of those sperm will fertilize whichever egg it is the first to reach. These are all random events.

Implicit in your claim is the assumption that the everyday English term “random” means the same to you as the word “indeterministic” means to a physicist or a logician. If I throw a pair of dice, I might say the outcome of that throwing is “random”, but that does not mean that I think it is indeterministic. I can pick a “random” card from a deck, but that does not mean that I think it is an indeterministic choice. When I play roulette, I might say the ball selects numbers at “random”, but that does not mean it is indeterministic. What most people actually mean when they use the term “random” in everyday language is related to an epistemic property of the process – we actually mean “I cannot predict what will happen, therefore to all intents and purposes the process is random”. But that does not necessarily mean that the process is ontically random (ie truly indeterministic).
If you are still unconvinced – a classic example is the “random number generator” in a computer. To all intents and purposes, it produces random numbers (generally we are unable to predict what numbers will be produced) – but in actual fact the computer RNG is behaving completely deterministically – if you reset the RNG it will then generate the same sequence of random numbers all over again.

Chaos
Chaos is a feature of a deterministic system – it has nothing to do with indeterminism per se. Chaos arises purely from the sensitive dependence of some deterministic systems on initial conditions. Or do you have any evidence that chaos arises necessarily from indeterminism? Perhaps you can share that with us?

Chaos is the antithesis of determinism.

With respect, is this just your opinon or have you learned this from somewhere?
Read any good up-to-date scientific text on chaos theory and I think you will find that not one has any need to introduce the hypothesis of indeterminism to explain what is going on in chaotic systems. Or can you refer me to one that does?

Chaotic eddies will form randomly at random times throughout any system of moving fluid.

Again I suspect you are using the colloquial (everyday) meaning of “random” here, which is an epistemic term. Yes, I agree that chaotic systems are (epistemically) unpredictable. But this is due to extreme sensitivity on initial conditions, and has nothing to do with indeterminism.

you refuse to admit the possibility of anything to be random chance and therefore must be deterministic even in the face of numerous facts, truths and scientific findings, principles and understanding.

I “refuse to admit” nothing, but I will not accept illogical or unsubstantiated claims. I will accept genuine evidence of ontic indeterminism if you can show me any. But (as I have explained above) nothing you have shown “requires” indeterminism in order to be explained. Belief in indeterminsim is therefore imho a matter of faith, not one of science.

I do not think that indeterminism endows anything onto anything. I said that it allows the possibility of free will.

By “endow” I do mean “allows the possibility of”, in the sense that “without indeterminism there would be no free will, with indeterminism there is free will”.
Would you agree with this?
The problem is, I have never seen anyone successfully demonstrate and successfully defend how this relationshp works (ie exactly how it is that free will arises from indeterminism)

You have already decided the the world is deterministic by the highlighted statement in the quote above. "My reason for belief in determinism...I see no reason...in an otherwise deterministic world." This is circular reasoning and not logical.

With respect, my position is quite logical.
One must start with the premise EITHER that the world is completely deterministic, OR that it is not. (which is equivalent to saying EITHER the world contains no indeterminism, or it does).
Which one you choose is a matter of faith.
If you start with the belief that everything in the world is deterministic, one can then ask “does determinism explain everything that I see in the world, from an epistemic point of view?” My answer is yes.
Then we could ask “would adding an indeterministic element help me to explain things any better?”. My answer is no.
If you start with the alternative belief that there is indeterminsim in the world then you can arrive at the same conclusion (ie it fits the facts).
So what do we have? EITHER one can believe that the world is 100% deterministic, with no indeterminism, OR one can believe that the world is apparently largely deterministic, but with some indeterminism. Both philosophies fit the facts. Occam’s razor would say that the former (being the simpler) is the preferred philosophy.

Your mind is made up and you can and will rationalize it any and every way possible including illogical thinking dispute any and all evidence refuting your firm belief.

I could say the same about you. In my case, my mind is in fact “not made up”, but I can defend my beliefs using rational logic. Can you?

I gave here and other threads and posts my logical reasons for believing in indeterminism, that chance and randomness play a significant role in the physical universe.

And I have refuted all of your claims.

I have given sources and quotes but none of that makes any difference because you mind is made up.

I disagree that “my mind is made up”. I am willing to continue a rational debate on the subject. I am open to continued rational argument. Are you?

You have yet ……. to explain why or how you think that the universe is deterministic.

I have explained above. I would be interested to see how you respond.
With respect,
MF

 

[Royce]

If determinism is to hold, the world, the universe, must be wholly deterministic.

If it can be shown to occur within the world any random non-deterministic event then the world is not wholly deterministic and determinism does not hold and cannot then be the case.

case 1.
The fair roll of a fair die (one of a pair of dice) will result in one of six numbered faces of the die ending face up. It can be calculated that the probability of anyone of the six numbers coming up is 1 in 6. Given any number of rolls it will be shown that this is true and that all of the numbers have an equal probability of coming up. It is impossible to predict or determine which number will come up in anyone roll of the die. This is by definition (see Merriam Webster On line) a random i. e. non-deterministic occurrence.

case 2.
In radio-active decay of an unstable isotope it cannot be predicted nor determined when any given nucleus will decay. The best that can be calculated is the half-life of an isotope in which over the given amount of time one half of the nuclei will decay; however, it cannot be determined when or if any individual nucleus will decay over any given time period. This is also a random event.

Since it has been show that random, non-determinate events do occur in the world, universe, I conclude that the world is not wholly deterministic and that therefore determinism does not hold and is not the case.

 

[Q_Goest]

Royce, to be fair, what MF said about the dice being determinate is true. How a die rolls and jumps across a table and how it interacts with the aerodynamic drag as it flies through the air, is defined by classical mechanics. One can show how forces on a die make it do what it does, right down to determining what number it should land on. Given a sufficiently powerful computer, accurate input and perfect modeling, a computer should in principal be able to calculate exactly which number a given throw of a die ends up on right down to where it lands on the table. The "random" element referred to in the dictionary does not mean it is indeterminate, but chaotic. It's behavior is actually not easily calculable because it is "chaotic" and small deviations from any given interaction between the die and the table can result in large differences in what number the die lands on. That's what chaotic means.

On the other hand, your example of radioactive decay is, by present day physics, defined as indeterminate as far as I know. The scientific community I would say has generally accepted that this is a truly indeterminate process. MF can easily point to the possibility though that a non-local hidden variable theory could exist and thus make that a deterministic process and that hasn't been totally ruled out. But from the perspective of existing scientific theory, I believe the general consensus is that radioactive decay, among other quantum phenomena, is a truly indeterminate process.

 

[Royce]

Royce, to be fair, what MF said about the dice being determinate is true. How a die rolls and jumps across a table and how it interacts with the aerodynamic drag as it flies through the air, is defined by classical mechanics.

It is physically impossible to recreate a fair roll of any fair dice or die to be able to predict significantly beyond a 1:6 probability even if a precise machine were made to throw the die. It just can't be done. There are too many variables even in principle. If I would accept the possibility in principle then it would not be defined as a fair rolls.

The "random" element referred to in the dictionary does not mean it is indeterminate, but chaotic. It's behavior is actually not easily calculable because it is "chaotic" and small deviations from any given interaction between the die and the table can result in large differences in what number the die lands on. That's what chaotic means.

But it is not a chaotic test it is a probability, chance, test. The odds of any number coming up can be and are accurately calculated and Las Vegas makes millions doing it honestly and fairly.

On the other hand, your example of radioactive decay is, by present day physics, defined as indeterminate as far as I know. The scientific community I would say has generally accepted that this is a truly indeterminate process.

Thank you for that much anyway. One case is all I need of show that the world is not wholly determinate.

MF can easily point to the possibility though that a non-local hidden variable theory could exist and thus make that a deterministic process and that hasn't been totally ruled out. But from the perspective of existing scientific theory, I believe the general consensus is that radioactive decay, among other quantum phenomena, is a truly indeterminate process.

And I can just as easily point out that God or the Devil or Little Green Men made made it happen. If he can show me a non-local hidden variable which most Quantum theorist deny then I will retract that case and think of another case which he won't accept either invoking some kind of magic or other illogical reason that it is determinate.

Again, thanks

 

[moving finger]

Hi Royce

If determinism is to hold, the world, the universe, must be wholly deterministic.
If it can be shown to occur within the world any random non-deterministic event then the world is not wholly deterministic and determinism does not hold and cannot then be the case.

I agree (assuming that your definition of "random" is such that random is synonymous with "indeterministic")

case 1.
The fair roll of a fair die (one of a pair of dice) will result in one of six numbered faces of the die ending face up. It can be calculated that the probability of anyone of the six numbers coming up is 1 in 6. Given any number of rolls it will be shown that this is true and that all of the numbers have an equal probability of coming up.

This is true in the case of a perfect die, yes.

It is impossible to predict or determine which number will come up in anyone roll of the die. This is by definition (see Merriam Webster On line) a random i. e. non-deterministic occurrence.

With respect, this confuses the definition of "indeterministic" with that of "indeterminable".
"impossible to predict or determine" is an epistemic property - it says there is a limit to our ability to predict, there is a limit to our knowledge. It does NOT say that the underlying process (the ontology) is indeterministic. Indeterminable (an epistemic property) is not the same as indeterministic (an ontic property).
It follows that to show any process is indeterminable does not allow us to conclude that the same process is necessarily indeterministic.

case 2.
In radio-active decay of an unstable isotope it cannot be predicted nor determined when any given nucleus will decay. The best that can be calculated is the half-life of an isotope in which over the given amount of time one half of the nuclei will decay; however, it cannot be determined when or if any individual nucleus will decay over any given time period. This is also a random event.

Again, this is an example of an indeterminable event (radioactive decay). The same argument applies as above, this does not necessarily imply an indeterministic process.

Since it has been show that random, non-determinate events do occur in the world, universe, I conclude that the world is not wholly deterministic and that therefore determinism does not hold and is not the case.

I have highlighted the terms in the above where the confusion occurs. One cannot assume that our observation of non-determinate events (limits to our epistemic ability) necessarily implies an indeterministic world (an ontic property). I would humbly claim that there is no proof that the world is in any way ontically indeterministic (another way of saying this - ontic determinism has not so far been falsified)
If you remain unconvinced, let me give you another couple of examples to illustrate the difference between epistemically indeterminable and ontically indeterministic :

Random Cards
I take a card "at random" from a deck of cards. I have no idea in advance what the value of the card will be - therefore from my perspective the value on the card is "indeterminable" (until I have picked it and looked at it). Would you say that this implies the value on the card is also "indeterministic" (until I have picked it and looked at it)?

Computer RNG
Most modern computers contain a random number generator (RNG). The RNG operates completely deterministically, but if I do not know the precise algorithm of the RNG then I am unable to predict what numbers it will produce. The output of the RNG is therefore, from my perspective, "indeterminable". Would you say that this implies the RNG is also "indeterministic"?
As always, with respect
MF

 

[moving finger]

MF can easily point to the possibility though that a non-local hidden variable theory could exist and thus make that a deterministic process and that hasn't been totally ruled out.

Dang! you took the words right out of my mouth

from the perspective of existing scientific theory, I believe the general consensus is that radioactive decay, among other quantum phenomena, is a truly indeterminate process.

I suspect Niels Bohr, the founding father of the Copenhagen Interpretation, might have answered this way :
"All we can say about quantum processes is what we can measure - what we can measure is limited by our epistemic horizon - therefore it makes no sense to ask "what is really going on" - because what is really going on is beyond our epistemic horizon and the question cannot be answered.
Whether the world is (at its core) deterministic or indeterministic is then (strictly speaking) a question that cannot be answered (just like asking "which way did the electron go" in the 2-slit experiment in the absence of observation), therefore meaningless."

(with apologies to Niels)

Therefore I humbly suggest that the correct scientific answer to the question "is the world fundamentally deterministic or indeterministic" is "we cannot answer the question". Any scientist who says he believes in either determinism or indeterminism is then (with respect) taking a leap of faith, not one of science.

May your God go with you

MF

 

[moving finger]

Royce, to be fair, what MF said about the dice being determinate is true. How a die rolls and jumps across a table and how it interacts with the aerodynamic drag as it flies through the air, is defined by classical mechanics.

It is physically impossible to recreate a fair roll of any fair dice or die to be able to predict significantly beyond a 1:6 probability even if a precise machine were made to throw the die. It just can't be done. There are too many variables even in principle. If I would accept the possibility in principle then it would not be defined as a fair rolls.

With respect, Royce, this confuses the meanings of many different terms. Something can be predictable “in principle”, but not “in practice”, hence would still be (epistemically) unpredictable.
A chaotic system is based on a deterministic process which is impossible to predict even in principle, because of the extreme sensitivity to intial conditions. But even though a chaotic system is impossible to predict (an epistemic quality), it is nevertheless still a deterministic one (an ontic quality). You don’t have to believe me – read up about chaos theory in any good modern textbook.

The "random" element referred to in the dictionary does not mean it is indeterminate, but chaotic. It's behavior is actually not easily calculable because it is "chaotic" and small deviations from any given interaction between the die and the table can result in large differences in what number the die lands on. That's what chaotic means.

But it is not a chaotic test it is a probability, chance, test. The odds of any number coming up can be and are accurately calculated and Las Vegas makes millions doing it honestly and fairly.

Yes, and chaotic systems are “honestly and fairly unpredictable”, yet they are still 100% deterministic. One must be very careful when mixing up terms like “random”, “chaotic”, “unpredictable” and “indeterministic” – in everyday “common” usage many of these terms may be somewhat interchangable, but in science they are not – each has a very unique meaning.

On the other hand, your example of radioactive decay is, by present day physics, defined as indeterminate as far as I know. The scientific community I would say has generally accepted that this is a truly indeterminate process.

Thank you for that much anyway. One case is all I need of show that the world is not wholly determinate.

Let’s not be so hasty - Please see my separate reply (above) on this point

And I can just as easily point out that God or the Devil or Little Green Men made made it happen. If he can show me a non-local hidden variable which most Quantum theorist deny then I will retract that case and think of another case which he won't accept either invoking some kind of magic or other illogical reason that it is determinate.

Many eminent and respectable scientists believe in God, but with respect I don’t think bringing the concept of God into a scientific debate is a good idea.
Science proceeds on the basis of advancing (falsifiable) hypotheses to explain observations, and then performing experiments to either validate or falsify the hypothesis. The hypothesis of non-local hidden variables is compatible with everything we know about the world, therefore fits the observations. If you or anyone else can come up with an experimental result which shows that such an hypothesis is false then I would be the first to reject it. Until then, it stands as a scientifically acceptable hypothesis.
(as an aside – ANY hypothesis which purports to explain “what is really going on” beyond the epistemic limit of CI is unfalsifiable hence unscientific – but this applies to ALL theories that attempt to explain what is "really" going on, not just non-local hidden variables theories).
On the comment “most Quantum theorists deny……" - with respect, the day that scientific truth becomes democratically decided is the day I will hang up my test tubes.

May your God go with you

MF

 

[Royce]

I agree (assuming that your definition of "random" is such that random is synonymous with "indeterministic")

Hi, MF.

Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary
Main Entry: 2random
Function: adjective
2 a : relating to, having, or being elements or events with definite probability of occurrence <random processes> b : being or relating to a set or to an element of a set each of whose elements has equal probability of occurrence.

If this definition is synonymous with your definition of indeterministic, okay.
I don't think that it is but that's just my opinion.

With respect, this confuses the definition of "indeterministic" with that of "indeterminable".
"impossible to predict or determine" is an epistemic property - it says there is a limit to our ability to predict, there is a limit to our knowledge. It does NOT say that the underlying process (the ontology) is indeterministic. Indeterminable (an epistemic property) is not the same as indeterministic (an ontic property).
It follows that to show any process is indeterminable does not allow us to conclude that the same process is necessarily indeterministic.

Yes I agree. It was a bad choice of words. I did not realize that I had done that until you pointed it out. However, the fair roll of a fair die or dice is ontologically indeterministic or random by the definition above. A simple test will show that. Roll a die 100-1,000 times and plot the results. Each number has an equal chance of coming up and if the test is done fairly with a fair die they will come up an equal or nearly equal number of times. Since it is an true ontological random occurrence it is also epistemic in that we can't know or predict which number will come up on anyone roll.

Again, this is an example of an indeterminable event (radioactive decay). The same argument applies as above, this does not necessarily imply an indeterministic process.

I disagree. Can you support your claim that it is indeterminable and not indeterministic; that it is that we can know but that it is deterministic and not a random events that is indeterministic, ontological.

I have to go now I will return later to address the rest of your comments.

 

[Q_Goest]

Royce said: However, the fair roll of a fair die or dice is ontologically indeterministic or random by the definition above.

Yes, it seems like an indeterministic mechanism, but it's not really. I'll give you a reason and an example. What happens when a die or any object impacts another object is defined by classical physics, and is in principal reducible to the individual events (the bounces and impacts as well as the air resistance). These events are governed by the laws of conservation of energy and conservation of momentum. These two laws along with the laws used for aerodynamic affects can very accurately determine what a die does as it bounces across a table. What happens to a die is reducible to what happens (events) during its trek across the table. If it wasn't reducible to those events, then one must claim there are other "indeterminate" processes that are operating on the die as it moves. For example, one must claim that if it impacts the table, the laws of conservation of energy and momentum are somehow adjusted randomly for any given impact, so that instead of obeying those laws and bouncing back according to them, the die must bounce back in defiance of those laws. So far, no one has shown the laws of energy and momentum conservation have been violated, so there is no reason to believe a die does not obey these laws. Similarly for aerodynamic laws, the Navier Stokes equations for example, may not be easily calculable and they may even be uncalculable in principal, but that is not an indication that the laws are indeterminate. The die "knows" what to do and it does it in accordance with those laws of physics.

Now an example: The example I'll give is based on a very interesting documentary recently run on the History Channel called "Breaking Vegas". In that show, they did a piece on Doyne Farmer and Norman Packard. Here's a short description:

Nobody can predict where the ball will fall on the roulette wheel -- or can they? That was the goal of Doyne Farmer and Norman Packard, childhood friends and physics geeks who embarked in 1975 to deconstruct the physics behind the motion of a roulette ball, and build a miniature computer system that could predict the outcome of a roulette game. The project soon became an out-of-control obsession, consuming a whole commune of brilliant hippie-physicists, and ultimately ended in a landmark contribution to modern-day Chaos Theory. Interviews with Doyne Farmer and Norman Packard take viewers deep into the ambitious and adrenaline-filled adventure.

So essentially what they did was to come up with a computer program that could quickly calculate where a roulette ball would land (to a very high degree of accuracy) as soon as the ball was in motion. It used input from the person watching the game and would quickly calculate a number to bet on. The person would then put their bet on that number before the roulette ball dropped into play. Apparantly they won huge amounts of money before they got discovered.

You may also want to read the Stanford entry on http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/determinism-causal/" , specifically section 3.3 regarding "Determinism and Chaos". Here they use a billiard table for an example and show that such systems that appear to be random are actually chaotic and deterministic.

 

[moving finger]

Hello Royce

If this definition is synonymous with your definition of indeterministic, okay. I don't think that it is but that's just my opinion.

The definition seems to me to define random as being synonymous with “indeterministic”, if we assume “probability of occurrence” is talking about an ontic property (reality) and not an epistemic probability (our knowledge of reality).
The important thing is that if we define “random” = “indeterministic” then we must be very careful how we use the word random from now on (it would be misleading to then use random to describe epistemic rather than ontic properties). Again, this all comes down to the rather sloppy way that we all (myself included) tend to use the English language in everyday speech.

Yes I agree. It was a bad choice of words. I did not realize that I had done that until you pointed it out. However, the fair roll of a fair die or dice is ontologically indeterministic or random by the definition above. A simple test will show that. Roll a die 100-1,000 times and plot the results. Each number has an equal chance of coming up and if the test is done fairly with a fair die they will come up an equal or nearly equal number of times.

With respect, if I perform this experimment then what is actually happening here is that I am “measuring” the outcome of the rolls of the die – and quantum mechanics tells us quite clearly that the process of measurement can never tell us how the world “really is”, it can only ever tell us “what we can measure about the world”. Our measurements are epistemic. We have no way of deriving truly ontic information from our epistemic measurements.

Since it is an true ontological random occurrence it is also epistemic in that we can't know or predict which number will come up on anyone roll.

Sorry, but (as explained above) we cannot conclude from this that the “randomness” is ontic, the most we can ever conclude is that it is epistemic.
I can sense that you are not convinced. Please do read again the examples I gave earlier of the deck of cards, and of the RNG.
In the case of the deck of cards then each card has a 1/52 chance of being chosen. I can repeat the experiment as many times as I like and (just like the roll of the die above) it will “appear” to me that the cards are truly random. It is not possible for me to determine in advance what card I will choose. The values are indeterminable. But all of these things are epistemic properties (the appearance of randomness, the inability to determine in advance). From the results of my experiment, can I say anything about the ontic properties of the values on the cards? Are the values truly indeterministic, or is it just my lack of knowledge that prevents me from knowing the value of each card in advance? What do you think?
In the case of the RNG then each number generated has the same chance of being produced as any other number. I can run the RNG as long as I like and (as long as I do not reset it) it will “appear” to me that the numbers are truly random. It is not possible for me to determine in advance what number will be produced. The numbers are indeterminable. But all of these things are epistemic properties (the appearance of randomness, the inability to determine in advance). From the results of my experiment, can I say anything about the ontic properties of the RNG? Is the RNG truly indeterministic, or is it just my lack of knowledge that prevents me from knowing numbers in advance? What do you think?

Can you support your claim that it is indeterminable and not indeterministic; that it is that we can know but that it is deterministic and not a random events that is indeterministic, ontological.

Sorry, but I am not claiming that radioactive decay is NOT indeterministic. I am saying it is “not necessarily indeterministic”, which is not the same thing. I am claiming that “we have no way of knowing” whether it is indeterministic or not – hence to believe it is either deterministic or indeterministic is a leap of faith, not of science. My preference (but that is simply my belief) is to believe that everything is deterministic unless or until we can prove it otherwise, because that philosophy seems (to me) to fit better with Occam’s Razor.

With respect

MF

 

[Tournesol]

My preference (but that is simply my belief) is to believe that everything is deterministic unless or until we can prove it otherwise, because that philosophy seems (to me) to fit better with Occam’s Razor.

Surely it is against Occam's razor to multiply entities by supposing the existence of undetectable causes.

 

[moving finger]

Surely it is against Occam's razor to multiply entities by supposing the existence of undetectable causes.

With respect, I do not "suppose the existence of undetectable causes".

It follows quite logically from the dualism implied in "observer" and "observed" that there must be a limit to our epistemic ability, there must be an epistemic horizon, because the process of observation always entangles "observer" and "observed". In other words, in the final analysis there is no such thing as a truly objective measurement or observation. It follows from this that the nature of ultimate reality must always be unknown and unknowable.

Is the photon a particle or a wave? The usual answer is : It depends on how we measure it.

What this means is that the character of the photon that we observe depends on the process of observation.

In the absence of any measurement, which slit does the photon go through in the 2-slit experiment? In the absence of measurement, the question is meaningless.

MF

 

[Royce]

Yes, it seems like an indeterministic mechanism, but it's not really. I'll give you a reason and an example. What happens when a die or any object impacts another object is defined by classical physics, and is in principal reducible to the individual events (the bounces and impacts as well as the air resistance). These events are governed by the laws of conservation of energy and conservation of momentum. These two laws along with the laws used for aerodynamic affects can very accurately determine what a die does as it bounces across a table. What happens to a die is reducible to what happens (events) during its trek across the table. If it wasn't reducible to those events, then one must claim there are other "indeterminate" processes that are operating on the die as it moves.

The way that dice or a die is fairly rolled is that they/it is placed in a cup or closed hand and shaken for a non-determined amount of time, force and method then thrown with a non-determined force,direction and trajectory onto a table or board where they are usually required to bounce of of a back board before coming to a rest. This is what they have to do in every crap game in a casino. The bounce off of a backboard is not always required outside of a casino.

You may apply all of the physics reductionism that you want but unless you know before hand the exact orientation of the dice at release and the exact force direction and trajectory and the exact texture of the material on which they land and roll at that exact spot the results of the roll or rolls cannot be predicted which any accuracy beyond that of chance.

As far as the roulette wheel is concerned I watched the same program. They rigged up a computer hidden on their bodies. With a team of about 5 people they found that they could predict which quadrant of the wheel the ball would land in about 3 out of 4 times. It required that they time the rotation of the ball around the wheel before it fell down into the wheel itself. This gave them a target area of 9 numbers in each quadrant. Even this was remarkable and they won hundreds of thousands before they were finally caught.

My point is that is if we know the characteristics and history of the device, the starting conditions and the velocity, direction and trajectory of the objects then yes we can predict the results to a greater accuracy than probability; but this is not a fair test of probability nor non-deterministic
systems. Given perfect dice and surfaces or wheels and balls and with unknown starting conditions the events are non-deterministic. Even with practical devices and objects given a fair event it is not significantly deterministic.

It is not that we cannot know it is that it is unknowable, random, non-deterministic.

 

[Divisionbyzer0]

I'm not coming from a tradition of (or a well-versed readings of) analytic philosophy here, but I dispute with the definition by determinism as stated at the beginning of the thread by Royce-- there are other varients. Particularly, there are the fatalistic, pre-existing, pre-set time, totality varients. One could name these varients "block universe" or "tenseless time" determinisms.

If I state that:

(I) "the future is 'existing', has 'existed', and will perpetually 'exist' (along with 'past' and 'present') in a static state"

am I saying something fundamentally different than

(II) "everything currently happening, everything that has happened, and everything that will happen, but has not yet, is a complete function of the past?"

?

There are similarities, but I believe fundamental differences in the two statements, yet I'd maintain that both are deterministic paradigms. If (I) is the case then where would that leave randomness-- could we imagine (I) holding good but still admitting randomness? Would randomness then merely be a kind of in principle unknowability? With (I) I can see maintaining unpredictability/unknowability with complete determinability.

 

[moving finger]

The way that dice or a die is fairly rolled is that they/it is placed in a cup or closed hand and shaken for a non-determined amount of time, force and method then thrown with a non-determined force,direction and trajectory onto a table or board where they are usually required to bounce of of a back board before coming to a rest. This is what they have to do in every crap game in a casino. The bounce off of a backboard is not always required outside of a casino.
You may apply all of the physics reductionism that you want but unless you know before hand the exact orientation of the dice at release and the exact force direction and trajectory and the exact texture of the material on which they land and roll at that exact spot the results of the roll or rolls cannot be predicted which any accuracy beyond that of chance.

Agreed. But all this shows is that our predictive ability is limited by our prior knowledge of the system. This is all purely epistemic indeterminability. It says nothing about the ontology of the scenario, which could still be purely deterministic.

As far as the roulette wheel is concerned I watched the same program. They rigged up a computer hidden on their bodies. With a team of about 5 people they found that they could predict which quadrant of the wheel the ball would land in about 3 out of 4 times. It required that they time the rotation of the ball around the wheel before it fell down into the wheel itself. This gave them a target area of 9 numbers in each quadrant. Even this was remarkable and they won hundreds of thousands before they were finally caught.
My point is that is if we know the characteristics and history of the device, the starting conditions and the velocity, direction and trajectory of the objects then yes we can predict the results to a greater accuracy than probability; but this is not a fair test of probability nor non-deterministic
systems. Given perfect dice and surfaces or wheels and balls and with unknown starting conditions the events are non-deterministic.

Where is your evidence that "the events are non-deterministic"? With respect, there is no such evidence. The events may indeed be "non-determinable", but as I have pointed out many times already "non-determinable" does not necessarily imply "non-deterministic".
Royce - did you read and understand the examples I gave of the random draw of a card, and the computer RNG? How do you respond to these?

It is not that we cannot know it is that it is unknowable, random, non-deterministic.

Where is your evidence that it is genuinely and necessarily "non-deterministic", and not just "non-determinable"? Without evidence, this simply boils down to belief, not science.

With respect,

MF

 

[El Hombre Invisible]

My point is that is if we know the characteristics and history of the device, the starting conditions and the velocity, direction and trajectory of the objects then yes we can predict the results to a greater accuracy than probability; but this is not a fair test of probability nor non-deterministic
systems. Given perfect dice and surfaces or wheels and balls and with unknown starting conditions the events are non-deterministic. Even with practical devices and objects given a fair event it is not significantly deterministic.
It is not that we cannot know it is that it is unknowable, random, non-deterministic.

I think what, in a crowded, foggy nutshell, MF is trying to tell you is that you are mixing indeterminism and unpredictability in one catch-all term, and so while what you are saying is true with respect to 'determining' and 'predicting' outcomes in the way you are using the words, the two have distinct and different definitions in scientific terminology. This thread is about determinism, not predictability, as per the agreed scientific definitions. It is misunderstandings such as this one between you and MF that justify the boringly strict agreement on the definitions of such words.

Non-deterministic systems evolve in such a way that no amount of prior information will tell you what the outcome will be with 100% certainty, even in principal. Contrary to MF's belief, QM yields indeterminacy as in, for example, Young's experiment. It is impossible to determine with 100% certainty where exactly a given particle will strike the screen, no matter how much prior information you have. (Of course, there are deterministic interpretations of QM also.)

Unpredictable systems evolve in such a way that if you knew the exact initial conditions and rules, you can predict the outcome with 100% certainty, but the slightest error in your initial conditions or rules will yield outcomes different to those expected. In chaotic systems, these initial errors can produce drastically different results. Nonetheless, they are deterministic. Indeed, it is the determinism that makes it chaotic.

Systems that are not deterministic cannot, by definition, possibly be chaotic.

 

[Royce]

Agreed. But all this shows is that our predictive ability is limited by our prior knowledge of the system. This is all purely epistemic indeterminability. It says nothing about the ontology of the scenario, which could still be purely deterministic.

Yes, we can look at it that way; however, since prior conditions are ontologically unknowable as they are randomized by the shaking or shuffling of the objects then the results too are ontologically unknowable. "Ontologically unknowable" implies randomness and an indeterministic event.

Where is your evidence that "the events are non-deterministic"? With respect, there is no such evidence. The events may indeed be "non-determinable", but as I have pointed out many times already "non-determinable" does not necessarily imply "non-deterministic".

I can ask the same of you. Where is you evidence that the events are deterministic and not indeterministic? If an event is ontologically unknowable it is then also epistemologically unknowable but that does not exclude "ontologically unknowable." It stems, IMO, on the belief that EVERYTHING is physically reducible or that reality is atemporal and the future is already determined, existent, already known.

Royce - did you read and understand the examples I gave of the random draw of a card, and the computer RNG? How do you respond to these?

Yes I read it and meant to get back to it but was busy and distracted by other post's. My apologies.

Random draw of a card:

If the deck of cards is fairly shuffled, then prior to your drawing a card the results of the intended event is ontologically unknowable, truly random. Once you draw the card the probability wavew is collapse from 1:52 to 1:1 but now the card is ontologically knowable, but epistemologically unknowable. Schrodinger IMO would say that it is in a non-determinable state as is his cat before being observed. The actual value of the card could be determined by looking at the face of the card or by looking at the faces of the remaining cards and determining which one is missing. Once you look at the face of the card it is then known both ontologically and epistemologically.

In any event since prior to drawing the card I hold that the result is ontologically knowable, there is no possible way that the value of the card that you are about to pick can be knowable or determined, it is purely a random chance event with each card value having an equal 1:52 chance of being drawn.

In the physical world in which we live and experience where time is sequential and cause proceeds effect temporally then this is an ontologically unknowable, random example and thus indeterministic. If you hold that reality is atemporal including the physical world and that all is known including the future then we as physical beings still cannot know and it is physically unknowable to us unless we have a direct tie in with the omnicicent god head. Since this is unproveable, you can supply no evidence that this is true, only that it is your belief that it is true and as yop say of my position "this is not science but belief.

As this is the philosophy section of the Forums, beliefs are acceptable just as opinions are. And, all of my posts are my opinions and beliefs and in no way are intended to be taken as scientific fact. I reserve the right to disagree and/or question and/ or refute any opinions posted in this Philosophy forum.
(There selfAdjoint, am I cover now?)

Computer RNG:

Most modern computers contain a random number generator (RNG). The RNG operates completely deterministically, but if I do not know the precise algorithm of the RNG then I am unable to predict what numbers it will produce. The output of the RNG is therefore, from my perspective, "indeterminable". Would you say that this implies the RNG is also "indeterministic"?

To the best of my knowledge a truly randon number generator has not yet been developed. They are much more nearly so than even a few years ago, but as I understand it not yet truly random. I do not believe that any thing man made can be truly random in principle.

That said, if it were truly random then by definition it would be indeterministic AND indeterminable.

Doing a search on indeterminism (trying to determine if the proper term is indeterminism or non-determinism.), I found the following link and page.

http://www.update.uu.se/~fbendz/philo/indeterm.htm

Indeterminism
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"If we imagine an intellect which at any given moment knew all the forces that animate Nature and the mutual positions of the beings that comprise it -- if this intellect were vast enough to submit its data to analysis -- could condense into a single formula the movement of the greatest bodies of the univese ant that of the lightest atom. For such an intellect nothing could be uncertain and the future just like the past would be present before its eyes" -- Pierre-Simon Laplace (Philosophical essays on probability)
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Introduction
What is the nature of chance and indeterminism? I think many people have a false image of what random chance really is. To most people everything has a cause, and something happening uncaused may seem impossible and even absurd. The determinist position is that if one could set up two cases with the exact same set of circumstances we would get exactly the same result; or as Laplace's famous quote above indicates, that the future is embraced in the present. For the determinist, indeterminism is not fundamental, but lies only in our physical limitations to acquire complete knowledge of systems; if we could rewind history back to the big bang, the universe would evolve exactly the same way it has done today.
For natural reasons such an experiment is impossible to conduct, but determinism can be investigated indirectly. If the future was imbedded in the past, no new information would be introduced in the world, for all information would be contained in previous information. In this essay I will try to show that the determinist position is wrong -- that indeterminism is a fundamental quality of nature. "Noise" in the quantum world is amplified through dynamic processes and produces genuine new information at the expense of entropy.
The butterfly effect
When meterologist Edward Lorenz in 1961 made computer simulations on weather, he discovered what, in meterology, is now called the butterfly effect (the general expression in chaos theory is "Sensitive dependence on initial conditions"). It had been known previous to that, but not considered an important principle of science. To make a shortcut in his job, Lorenz typed in values from halfways on a previous run of the computer program, and discovered that the patterns of the two runs grew further and further apart until they showed no similarity whatsoever. He soon found out that the difference was not due to any error with the computer, but because he had typed in the rounded values of the printout instead of the more precise values used by the program (Gleick, 1987).
What the experiment showed was that, in non-linear systems, small differences of the initial condition will give rise to large differences in later stages. It is called the butterfly effect because, at least theoretically, it implies that a stroke of the wing of a butterfly could be the cause a hurricane. This effect is the reason why the weather is impossible to estimate with high accuracy for more than about three days and impossible to estimate at all after the fifth day. The reason for this is that the system gets so complicated that it in a limited amount of time has an infinite amount of possible states (or in mathematical language, infinite grades of freedom). No matter how fast computers we would ever use, it would still be impossible to calculate the future states before they happened (Davies, 1987). It can be mathematically showed that it is still possible to calculate the future state, but reality works faster than the simulation so it would be a prediction in second place (Davies, 1987).
Another reason why it is impossible to calculate the future before it happens is that we would have to know the initial figures, to give the computer program, with an infinite amount of decimals -- we would have to have infinite information of the system, an impossibility unless you are omniscient -- and since humans are not omniscient it is impossible to know the exact numbers to use. First because it is theoretically impossible to store a number with infinite precision in a computer (or indeed in any physical container), secondly since it is impossible to measure them, and thirdly because you would have to know the exact position and momentum of every particle and beam of energy in the whole universe to get exact values for any other quantum of matter. This was expressed before Lorentz, by Jules Henri Poincaré in Science et methode, in 1909:
"A very small cause which escapes our notice determines a considerable effect that we cannot fail to see, and then we then say the effect is due to chance. If we exactly knew the laws of nature and the situation of the universe at the initial moment, we could predict exactly the situation of that same universe at a succeeding moment. But even if it were the case that the natural laws had no longer any secrets for us, we could still know the situation approxiamative. If that enabled us to predict the succeeding situation with the same grade of approximation, that is all we require, and we sould say that the phenomenon had been predicted, that it is governed by the laws. But it is not always so; It may happen that small differences in the initial conditions produces very great ones in the final phenomena. A small error in the former will produce an enormous error in the latter. Predictions become impossible, we stand before a random phenomenon." (Gleick, 1987)
This impredictability of non-linear systems creates information. Since each new observation is a new bit, the system is a continuous source of information.
Linear systems are exceptions
The butterfly effect is common in non-linear systems, but aren't linear systems in majority? No, in school students are taught mostly about linear systems, and non-linear systems are simplified into linear systems to be soluble; but actually, in nature, linear systems are exceptions and non-linear systems are fundamental. This has made the mathematician Stanislaw Ulam remark that calling chaos nonlinear science is like calling zoology "the study of non-elephant animals" (Gleick, 1987).
Quantum fluctuation
But since it can be showed mathematically that the future of a chaotic system is determined by the present, doesn't that imply that there is determinism? Does not the new information appear deterministically? Yes, the butterfly gives rise to what is called "deterministic chaos", but once again ponder the issue of the infinite amount of decimals. To know the present with certainity one would have to know the exact position of every particle and beam of energy in the whole universe.
If we would try to do so, we would have to investigate every object in smaller and smaller scale. First we would have to investigate the molecules, and then the atoms, electrons, photons, quarks and so on down to the smallest parts. When one tries to measure the exact position and momentum of a very small particle there is a huge problem -- Heisenberg's uncertainity principle.
Werner von Heisenberg deduced in 1927 that the product of the uncertainities of position and momentum equals Planck's constant divided by 4 (about 5.273 10-35 Js) [Where,  is the greek letter Pi]. Since the mass of large objects, such as tennis balls, is so big compared to Planck's constant we never see the effects of this in daily life, but in the thermodynamic world it is a very important factor making it impossible to calculate position and momentum with any accuracy for quantum particles, since the error in some instances will be larger than the measured quantity itself. It is possible to get a good estimation of momentum at the expence of position or the other way around, but never of both at the same time. For the same reason it is impossible to estimate the total energy of an object in a finite time span.
But isn't Heisenberg's uncertainity principle only a way of saying that our instruments cannot be made with the precision necessary to measure particles this small? Isn't it so that the error rises when we interfere with the investigated object so we change its momentum and position? Again no, most physics textbooks describe it this way, but it has been showed by quantum physics that particles don't even posess a distinct momentum and position. It is the reality behind Heisenberg's uncertainity principle that gives rise to phenomena like the second law of thermodynamics and Brownian movement, because it makes particles move randomly in a "theormodynamic dance". Some events, such as radioactive decay, happen by pure chance -- uncaused. There is, of course, a cause why a radioactive atom decays since it is energetically and statistically favoured to do so, but there is no way to explain why it happens at a certain time. This seemed Albert Einstein so absurd that he exclaimed the famous words "God does not play dice".
Einstein thought that a better model than quantum physics would develop, and proposed an experiment (The EPR, or Einstein-Rosen-Podolsky experiment. See Physics and Ultimate reality (1995)) that would prove that it was a false theory. Some years after his death physicists' instruments were good enough to carry out the experiment and it turned out at Einstein's disadvantage (Davies, 1983, 1987). So all evidence show, that for small objects there is no true distinction between wave and particle nature. This, in turn, makes complete knowledge of the position and momentum of any object impossible, and shows that indeterminism is a fundamental quality of nature.
Summary
I have here shown that Quantum particles give rise to small fluctuations which are amplified in a process known as the butterfly effect. This process creates information from entropy and consolidates the indeterminist position. Chaos theory and, particulary, Quantum physics have made the Laplacian "World Spirit" impossible.
References
1. Paul Davies "God and the new physics" (1983)
2. Paul Davies "The cosmic blueprint" (1987)
3. James Gleick "CHAOS - Making a new science" (1987)
4. PHYSICS AND ULTIMATE REALITY a debate between Kevin Solway and Paul Davies
Books I will read which probably will appear in the reference list afterwards
1. I don't know the author Does God Play Dice?
2. John Gribbin "In search of Schrödinger's cat"
Other views
1. Chad Docterman's Essay on Determinism
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[moving finger]

I'm not coming from a tradition of (or a well-versed readings of) analytic philosophy here, but I dispute with the definition by determinism as stated at the beginning of the thread by Royce-- there are other varients. Particularly, there are the fatalistic, pre-existing, pre-set time, totality varients. One could name these varients "block universe" or "tenseless time" determinisms.
If I state that:
(I) "the future is 'existing', has 'existed', and will perpetually 'exist' (along with 'past' and 'present') in a static state"
am I saying something fundamentally different than
(II) "everything currently happening, everything that has happened, and everything that will happen, but has not yet, is a complete function of the past?"

This is similar to my original objection to Royce's definition of determinism. See post #2 in this thread.
The “Block universe” view is equivalent to saying that it is just as true to suggest "the future causes the past" as it is to say "the past causes the future".

There are similarities, but I believe fundamental differences in the two statements, yet I'd maintain that both are deterministic paradigms.

Agreed. Statement (II) implicitly assumes a scenario where an “arrow of time” determines future events from past events, but not necessarily vice versa. This means that every state of the universe has a unique future, but it is not necessarily the case that every state of the universe has a unique past. A universe where there are multiple possible pasts converging into fewer and fewer futures would be compatible with such a scenario.
The Block universe, on the other hand, is compatible with statement (I), and implies that every state of the universe has both a unique past and a unique future.

If (I) is the case then where would that leave randomness-- could we imagine (I) holding good but still admitting randomness? Would randomness then merely be a kind of in principle unknowability? With (I) I can see maintaining unpredictability/unknowability with complete determinability.

If by “randomness” you mean “ontic indeterminsim” then I do not see how you arrive at this conclusion. If the past and future already exist in a static state (as (I) implies), how then can anything be ontically indeterministic? Can you elucidate?
MF

 

[Royce]

El Hombre Invisible, I agree with everything you say; however, the previous few post refer back to my statement that if it can be shown that even one occurrence of a truly random event, an ontologically unknowable and unpredictable event can occur then the world, universe, cannot we wholly deterministic. I gave two examples that in my opinion were indeterministic and MF argues that they are deterministic and only epistemologically unknowable.

You seem to agree with my examples. Do you, therefore, agree with my conclusion that the world is indeterministc?

 

[Royce]

MF, I attempted to post a reply to your last few questions as well as a continuation of the my interrupted previous response, however it got dumped and I lost it all and was unable to retrieve it to try to submit it again. My apologies. I will retry later to respond. I'm too disgusted and frustrated right now.

 

[El Hombre Invisible]

El Hombre Invisible, I agree with everything you say; however, the previous few post refer back to my statement that if it can be shown that even one occurrence of a truly random event, an ontologically unknowable and unpredictable event can occur then the world, universe, cannot we wholly deterministic. I gave two examples that in my opinion were indeterministic and MF argues that they are deterministic and only epistemologically unknowable.
You seem to agree with my examples. Do you, therefore, agree with my conclusion that the world is indeterministc?

I agree with your conclusion, just not all of your reasoning. Chaotic systems do not evolve randomly, only unpredictably.

'Randomness' should be as equally rigorously defined as 'determinism' and 'predictability'. There's a huge difference between the roll of a die (which is to most useful intents and purposes random, and yet in truth is deterministic) and the radioactive decay of an atom, which (unless there are some hidden or undiscovered variables at work) is truly random and non-deterministic.

It truly is impossible, with any amount of information, to tell exactly when a given atom will decay (as far as I know). However, the roll of a die is subject only to Newtonian mechanics - it is an example of complexity, not randomness. Complexity and chaos are also frequent bedfellows, but simple chaotic systems show they are not one and the same.

If you stick to truly non-deterministic processes, your argument is imho sound and your conclusion follows naturally from your logical assumption that, should any natural process be shown to be non-deterministic (which it has), we live in a Universe of indeterminism (which we do).