Will Israel's Strikes Escalate to Full-Scale War?

[Gokul43201]

Thanks for the clarification. Is it your opinion that the entire airport management is systemically complicit and supporting of their illegal traffic, or that Hizbullah has a small number of "contacts" that help them at the risk of imprisonment?

 

[Yonoz]

Thanks for the clarification. Is it your opinion that the entire airport management is systemically complicit and supporting of their illegal traffic, or that Hizbullah has a small number of "contacts" that help them at the risk of imprisonment?

Hizbullah is often described (last night I heard it on BBC) as a state within a state. They essentially govern parts of Beirut and most of southern Lebanon. Entering Hizbullah controlled areas sometimes involves passing through Hizbullah roadblocks. I imagine that smuggling would be possible by bribes or plain threats to the right individuals. It isn't wise for any Lebanese to get in Hizbullah's way.

 

[Yonoz]

I think that would have to do with preventing Hizbullah from transporting the two kidnapped soldiers to Iran, based upon Yonoz's comments about the bombing of infrastructure to prevent transport of the soldiers from the border area. I would imagine though, that Hizbullah would try to go through Syria then (Damascus airport).

That's probably true. However, once the kidnapped soldiers are moved it is easier to find them by various means. A car or a boat can be stopped and searched, a plane cannot. This is why Lebanese ports were left untouched. Furthermore, Syria would be taking a major risk by allowing it to be tied to the kidnapping. They go to great lengths to hide their involvement in such matters. The highway to Damascus was also bombed.

 

[Astronuc]

Here is a Wikipedia article on the matter. It is not necessarily neutral.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Israel-Lebanon_crisis

If people in the Beqaa (Bekaa) Valley are still producing hashish and opium poppies, then I imagine that those folks have ties to the international Black Market - which is globally active - and that is how groups like Hizbullah can easily obtain financing, arms and munitions.

 

[Yonoz]

Here is a Wikipedia article on the matter. It is not necessarily neutral.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Israel-Lebanon_crisis

If people in the Beqaa (Bekaa) Valley are still producing hashish and opium poppies, then I imagine that those folks have ties to the international Black Market - which is globally active - and that is how groups like Hizbullah can easily obtain financing, arms and munitions.

It's more than just financing, it's another weapon they have against Israel. These days it's much more difficult, but during the Lebanese occupation Hizbullah would smuggle drugs (back then their production was also controlled by the Syrian army) into Israel. Last year an army tracker was indicted after smuggling drugs and perhaps more for them.
Nearly all of their financing and munitions are supplied by Iran though.

 

[Yonoz]

There is one more thing I would like to clarify: Israel has no interest in crippling the Lebanese government. It's quite clear what would happen in the void left.

 

[Gokul43201]

There is one more thing I would like to clarify: Israel has no interest in crippling the Lebanese government. It's quite clear what would happen in the void left.

A big question is: Is the Lebanese Govt going to rally behind Hizbullah (spurred no doubt, by the Hizb members already sitting in the Govt) or are they going to turn against them for dragging Lebanon into the conflict? Hey, why not just provide safe transit of the problem (ie: the captors and captives) into Damascus and then convince Israel that they're facing the wrong way? The present Lebanese Govt isn't, especially after the Hariri killing, very fond of Syria.

 

[Yonoz]

A big question is: Is the Lebanese Govt going to rally behind Hizbullah (spurred no doubt, by the Hizb members already sitting in the Govt) or are they going to turn against them for dragging Lebanon into the conflict? Hey, why not just provide safe transit of the problem (ie: the captors and captives) into Damascus and then convince Israel that they're facing the wrong way? The present Lebanese Govt isn't, especially after the Hariri killing, very fond of Syria.

A few moments ago I saw a Lebanese government official anouncing the Lebanese government is ready to negotiate via a 3rd party. A reporter immediately asked him "how can you negotiate about something a few moments ago you said you have nothing to do with?". He answered "The situation needs to be dealt with and the government should be the one to deal with it". I cannot speak for the Lebanese people but my impression is that there is a lot of resentment against Hizbullah. As I mentioned, Syria will not agree to be involved, as it will prove they still control much in Lebanon. They're quite happy about the current situation, BTW, which personally worries me, but Israel will not attack them as they have been granted a defensive "umbrella" by Ahmedinajad. The last thing Israel wants is to start a war.
Hizbulla will not divulge any details to the Lebanese government about the kidnapped soldiers as that would probably compromise their secrecy, Israeli intelligence has a far reach.

 

[Yonoz]

A few moments ago Israeli warplanes bombed Hizbulla HQ in south Beirut. Israeli TV reports Nasrallah was in the building that was bombed, his status is unclear.
The IDF Chief of Staff has said that Nasrallah was not the target. Nasralla spoke on the phone to TV reporters

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

CNN also is reporting an Israeli Naval ship was hit by rockets. Hizbullah is declaring open war.

 

[wolram]

A few moments ago Israeli warplanes bombed Hizbulla HQ in south Beirut. Israeli TV reports Nasrallah was in the building that was bombed, his status is unclear.
The IDF Chief of Staff has said that Nasrallah was not the target. Nasralla spoke on the phone to TV reporters

It just came over the radio that he was not in the building.

 

[Astronuc]

Hizbullah is declaring open war.

After the fact? It seems as if their actions yesterday were a declaration of war.

I wonder if this was planned in conjunction with the Hamas action and Israeli response in Gaza?

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

After the fact? It seems as if their actions yesterday were a declaration of war.

Well, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has officially announced it via audio tape.

 

[Astronuc]

Well, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has officially announced it via audio tape.

I guess it's a matter of Shoot First, then make a Declaration of War!

Still, I have to wonder if this was coordinated with Hamas. Then Israel is being attacked on two fronts - in the south on the border with Gaza, and in the north with Hizbullah.

 

[Bystander]

(snip)Still, I have to wonder if this was coordinated with Hamas. (snip)

Unlikely --- coincidental "business as usual."

Edit: possibly "opportunistic, copy-cat one-upsmanship."

 

[Yonoz]

Like I said, the kidnapping that started all this was planned for months. Something's always happening here, probably just a coincidence. Of course, Iran could have coordinated this since the Hamas operation was controlled from the Syrian office.

 

[gravenewworld]

I have come to the conclusion that everyone in the Middle East, Palestinian and Israeli, is insane.

 

[MeJennifer]

Well rationality is problematic since whenever Israel is involved we get:

Biblicalists + Israel apologists + Jews + Anti-semites + Islamists + Palestine supporters + a couple of other groups I forgot.

And they usually happen to disagree.

 

[Cyrus]

I have come to the conclusion that everyone in the Middle East, Palestinian and Israeli, is insane.

I think you just won the nobel prize.

 

[Skyhunter]

I have come to the conclusion that everyone in the Middle East, Palestinian and Israeli, is insane.

Aggression has not led to any meaningful conflict resolution in 60+ years. After the 1948-49 war sparked by Israel's unilateral declaration of statehood, The Zionists, who won the war sowed the seeds of future conflict by opposing Palestinian statehood.

"[At Lausanne,] Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, and the Palestinians were trying to save by negotiations what they had lost in the war--a Palestinian state alongside Israel. Israel, however... [preferred] tenuous armistice agreements to a definite peace that would involve territorial concessions and the repatriation of even a token number of refugees. The refusal to recognize the Palestinians' right to self-determination and statehood proved over the years to be the main source of the turbulence, violence, and bloodshed that came to pass." Israeli author, Simha Flapan, "The Birth Of Israel."

http://www.cactus48.com/statehood.html

 

[darius]

Most certainly some of them were.

The Palestinian raid that produced the initial kidnapping was motivated at least partially by recent incidents in which Israelis killed Palestinian civilians.

Palestianians kill Israeli civilians. Israelis kill Palestinian civilians. Israelis kidnap Palestinians. Palestinians kidnap Israelis.

And, http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,605798,00.html" , they are the same people.[/QU
Ditto! George makes very good sense!

 

[kyleb]

Many Israelis are Arab Jews, but many more are actually of European descent. But that is beside the point; we took http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/70/Map_of_Jewish_settlements_in_Palestine_in_1947.png out of it, and we haven't been doing anything reasonable to work toward a resolution to this impending disaster.

 

[MeJennifer]

Many Israelis are Arab Jews, but many more are actually of European descent.

So the ones of European decent have genetically no ties with bilibcal Jews whatsoever?

 

[Yonoz]

After the 1948-49 war sparked by Israel's unilateral declaration of statehood, The Zionists, who won the war sowed the seeds of future conflict by opposing Palestinian statehood.

Unilateral declaration of statehood... now that's funny

 

[Astronuc]

So the ones of European decent have genetically no ties with bilibcal Jews whatsoever?

In some cases, no. Many Khazars converted to Judaism when the Khan and Khazar nobility adopted the religion. Khazaria comprised parts of eastern Ukraine, western Kazahkstan, and southern Russia.

See - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khazaria#Conversion_to_Judaism_and_relations_with_world_Jewry

At some point in the last decades of the 8th century or the early 9th century, the Khazar royalty and nobility converted to Judaism, and part of the general population followed. The extent of the conversion is debated. Ibn al-Faqih reported in the 10th century that "all the Khazars are Jews." Notwithstanding this statement, most scholars believed that only the upper classes converted to Judaism; there is some support for this in contemporary Muslim texts.

This is consistent with other sources I have.

Similarly, other Europeans converted to Judaism, and perhaps married Jews from the diaspora.

It is not such a simple matter.

 

[kyleb]

We all have genetic ties to some extent or another. However, the point of comment there was simply to point out that the argument of "genetically, they are the same people" is reaching quite a bit, especially considering the fact that most Israelis are Ashkenazi rather than Sephardi. But again, the problem here remains regardless of any of that, and what we need focus on is implementing a reasoned resolution.

 

[turbo]

Unilateral declaration of statehood... now that's funny

Not really funny at all. When the Zionist terror squads "ethnically cleansed" Palestinian towns through murder and intimidation, the world looked the other way. When the Zionists claimed statehood, the UN said that they could accept that if Israel allowed the Palestinian refugees to return and reclaim their property or accept restitution. The Zionists have done none of this, and have tried to keep the Palestinians in a permanent stateless refugee status. Every bit of armed resistance by the Palestinians is decried as "terrorism", meanwhile the Israelis do exactly the same things to the Palestinians, going as far as to murder their leaders - usually killing innocent men, women and children in the process. This is a complex situation, and the Palestinian side of the story is rarely told in US media - especially the part about Israel's terror squads.

 

[MeJennifer]

We all have genetic ties to some extent or another. However, the point of comment there was simply to point out that the argument of "genetically, they are the same people" is reaching quite a bit, especially considering the fact that most Israelis are Ashkenazi rather than Sephardi. But again, the problem here remains regardless of any of that, and what we need focus on is implementing a reasoned resolution.

Well are you suggesting that the conflict has nothing to do with some people's ideas about race and ethnicity?

 

[Hurkyl]

Not really funny at all. When the Zionist terror squads

Surely it was clear that Yonoz was laughing at the notion that anyone would call the formation of Israel "unilateral"? I can only make sense of your post if you thought that Yonoz was laughing at the actual events that occurred! (Or, if you simply didn't care what was said, but still wanted to make it look like you were replying to something)


That said, it's really hard to have sympathy for the Palestinian cause when all of their sympathizers try to blame Israel when militants endanger civilians by hiding among (and as) them... and can't even seem tell the difference between shooting at militants hiding among civilians, and simply shooting at civilians. (Maybe most sympathizers aren't like this... but I sure see a lot of it here, and most of my exposure to ME affairs comes from here)

 

[muadib2k]

I Think its important to remember several historical events that led to the conflict today. Several years ago when Israel withdrew from the buffer zone it occupied in southern Lebanon (which they took over previously to prevent exactly what is happening today...namely rocket attacks) a UN resolution was passed that contained 2 key points:
1. Israel must withdraw to the INTERNATIOANLLY (not set by israel, lebanon, but by the entire world) accepted border line.
2. Lebanon must assume control of the border and disarm any millitas in there.

When Israel pulled out of lebanon is has met the first part (100%). However, the government of lebanon did not even make an attempt at controlling the border. Not a single soldier was deployed; instead the region was left to the complete control of militas.

It is really sad what is happening to Lebanon right now; dare I say that it all could have been avoided had the Lebanese government took control over their own borders like any other soverign government. However, that was not the case mainly due to the government of syria (which until very recently had a VERY sizeable army present in Lebanon).

 

[russ_watters]

I have a somewhat softer view, muadib2k - with Syria maintaining considerable control over Lebanon, it was tough for them to do anything about that problem. Since recenly that has decreased, maybe it will be possible for Lebanon to really take control of their country. Perhaps that is what Israel is trying to cause - perhaps even the UN can make it happen.

 

[SOS2008]

Ah, how wonderful it is that democracy has emerged in the Middle East. Too bad no time can be allowed for it to blossom. At least anyway that's the argument made for occupying Iraq isn't it?

Israel is hysterical and over-reacting as usual. I only hope the U.S. (or even Europe) will not condone it this time, and will pressure Israel to chill out.

 

[devil-fire]

That said, it's really hard to have sympathy for the Palestinian cause when all of their sympathizers try to blame Israel when militants endanger civilians by hiding among (and as) them... and can't even seem tell the difference between shooting at militants hiding among civilians, and simply shooting at civilians. (Maybe most sympathizers aren't like this... but I sure see a lot of it here, and most of my exposure to ME affairs comes from here)

iv read thoughts similar to this referring to Iraq as well. however, it seems to be overlooked that it is often necessary to "hide among civilians" for militia/insurgents because of the nature conflict. what i mean by that is that it can be vary dangerous, for example, to attack an armed patrol without using the buildings beside a street for cover and as a means to escape the encounter. its just not as effective to attack a force on a street from another street

militias may hide rockets in a residential neighborhoods because its easy to get to them quickly compared to burying them away from an urban area. also many militia leaders are civilians and live with family or relatives so when they are bombed at home and there are civilian casualties, it isn't as if the people are trying to use their children as human shields. i haven't read anything credible that claims these militias/insurgents are trying to hide among civilians just because it fuels a campaign of propaganda

to protect Israelis, Israel has often accepted a high likelihood of human collateral damage in attacking enemy militia. this isn't notably unethical or uncommon but it can often be a source of resentment from the community involved and this can produce more militia. the idea of saving Palestinian lives by putting Israeli service-men's lives at risk (raiding an apartment to arrest/kill someone instead of bombing the building) isn't something Israeli security forces seem to be overly concern with at times (understandably so) but this can be short sighted.

 

[Yonoz]

When the Zionist terror squads "ethnically cleansed" Palestinian towns through murder and intimidation, the world looked the other way. When the Zionists claimed statehood, the UN said that they could accept that if Israel allowed the Palestinian refugees to return and reclaim their property or accept restitution. The Zionists have done none of this, and have tried to keep the Palestinians in a permanent stateless refugee status. Every bit of armed resistance by the Palestinians is decried as "terrorism", meanwhile the Israelis do exactly the same things to the Palestinians, going as far as to murder their leaders - usually killing innocent men, women and children in the process. This is a complex situation, and the Palestinian side of the story is rarely told in US media - especially the part about Israel's terror squads.

You need to get some history books. In the meantime, try reading about http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1947_UN_Partition_Plan" . Being an Israeli and having served in the IDF, I'd love to hear more about these "terror squads".

 

[Yonoz]

Israel is hysterical and over-reacting as usual.

What kind of response did you expect?
BTW IMO it's the media that's over-reacting. I know there's a slim chance you'll believe me, but I'd like to mention that most of what I see on BBC and CNN is grossly inaccurate. You get the impression as if Beirut in its entirety is targetted, while only one neighbourhood is being bombarded and that after being showered with pamphlets asking civilians to get away several hours earlier. Of course, foreign reporters never go into that Hizbullah neighbourhood so they have no idea.