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Ackbach
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See this excellent article for a summary, with links, as to why the lockdowns are showing up as ineffective. HT: https://www.linkedin.com/in/yihchauchang/ on LinkedIn.
Greg Bernhardt said:This is a danger zone thread haha. Personally I'm staying put with social distancing and limited interactions. There are many cases where cities have lifted lockdowns and now they see a second wave.
I know there are a few other countries, but here is one I foundAckbach said:Do you have some reliable (as in, not Far Left Formerly Mainstream Media such as CNN, MSNBC, Wikipedia, Google, and the like) news sources with information on when that's actually happened? I wasn't aware that any lockdowns had been lifted, but I'm happy to sit corrected.
Jameson said:I cannot comment on much here with any authority, but if with any model of the spread of a virus the infection rate will be key. I'm not relying on SIR or other specific ones because I know they all have flaws.
Jameson said:However, I think we can agree that a contagious virus has some infection rate even if we don't know it. @Ackbach any disagreements yet?
Jameson said:Ok if not, what would you recommend for the US if the infection rate of a new virus was 5x? That is to say that on average 1 infected person will spread it to 5 others. In this scenario of extreme exponential growth what should be done?
Unfortunately, the National Geographic article to which you linked is something I can only read for about 10 seconds before a screen comes up getting in the way of finishing it, so I can't comment much.Klaas van Aarsen said:Here's a reference how it worked with the Spanish Flu in 1918.
Various cities in the USA had a different lock down policy so we can compare.
Some responded late, some released lock down too soon, some were early and made sure...
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/Not sure how reliable National Geographic is, but I think the numbers don't lie.
I wonder which cities have learned, and which ones repeat the same mistakes without considering the value of history or experts for that matter. I guess we'll know soon enough.
Heart disease and cancer are not contagious and we have a vaccine for the flu.Ackbach said:The current extremely unbalanced approach to COVID (the COVID death toll hasn't begun to approach other big killers like heart disease or cancer, or even the flu) tells me something is amiss.
Joppy said:Is it any surprise that reopening society is pursued by a FfEE?... Not that I know anything about it, but it certainly seems a good idea to restrict interactions overall.
Joppy said:Frankly it appears western countries are struggling more because citizens are on the whole unwilling to subordinate and follow simple instructions.
Joppy said:In particular is the case of the USA, which (as an outsider, with my only information sources being mainstream media),
Joppy said:looks embarrassing and laughable from the management perspective.
Greg Bernhardt said:Heart disease and cancer are not contagious and we have a vaccine for the flu.
Heart disease and cancer cases aren't rising exponentiallyAckbach said:I realize heart disease and cancer are not contagious, but my point was more about the sheer size of the hullabaloo surrounding COVID versus cancer and heart disease and the flu.
Greg Bernhardt said:Heart disease and cancer cases aren't rising exponentially
I don't know, I'm not a virologist, so I take their advice.Ackbach said:COVID cases might or might not be exponential - in some regions they are clearly not, they're even flattening out. But I'm a lot more concerned about COVID deaths than I am about COVID cases. If you have a person not at-risk who contracts COVID and recovers, then that person contributes to herd immunity. I view this scenario more as part of the solution than as part of the problem.
Ackbach said:It is not a good idea for the government to force things, as it is not the job of the government to fight viruses. Recommendations, sure. But not forcing the issue.
Ackbach said:Ding, ding, ding! There's part of your problem. The Far Left Formerly Mainstream Media (FLFMM), as I like to call it, is completely unreliable on everything!
You should trust literally nothing they say. For more reliable news sources, I would point you to the Epoch Times, OAN (or OANN), or World Magazine. In particular, CNN, MSNBC, Wikipedia, the New York Times, the Washington Post, and many others like them, even Google sometimes, are thoroughly untrustworthy.
Joppy said:Why not? Whether or not it's right is irrelevant here.
Joppy said:The fact is they have a great deal of control, more than what people seemed to think was possible. This only leads me to believe that there is a veil of ignorance surrounding the nature of democratic countries which is achieved through marketed views of freedom, free speech etc. etc.
If say, before COVID, you dug around some legal documents to find out what governments can and can't do in a state of emergency (or whatever other declarations they have in place), and found that such and such a rule could be required of the people, would you be surprised?
Probably. I hadn't consumed any form of "news" prior to COVID and when it did, I only started finding snippets of gov. officials talking about what's going to gauge the situation. Now that it's all clear I'm back to no news :).
I had a browse around those websites you mentioned and spotted multiple articles on why we should be lifting restrictions. Also a lot of conspiracy related headlines and other nonsense. Whatever sells, right? That will always be the problem with "western media" and it isn't too different a problem from government run media, as in China. Who do you want to brainwash the public, corporations or the government?
How poetic . Relevant, but contemplative and on level of individual opinions, overwhelmingly insignificant.Ackbach said:I definitely cannot agree with you, there. What's right and wrong is always relevant.
Give me liberty or give me death!
Yet again, we are, apparently, in radical disagreement. What is right and wrong is orders of magnitude more important than what is possible, or who has power, or who doesn't have power.Joppy said:How poetic . Relevant, but contemplative and on level of individual opinions, overwhelmingly insignificant.
If you read post 18, you will see that I state quite clearly that all media is biased. You can't get unbiased news stories. They don't exist. The only question is which bias you're going to be biased with.MountEvariste said:You complain about biased media yet you point to The Epoch Times and One America News Network as reliable news sources?
Theia said:Some facts first: I don't know how are things in real US, I've only read "mainstream news".
Theia said:The only thing I've seen in all sources - including this thread - is this punchline:
Which might mean, it's real and used there. I'm not American, but I see the situation in America extremely clear when using this line.
Then my deduction: See, government didn't give liberty.
Theia said:So, obviously, all who wish to, should have all rights to die. Or am I mistaken and some government in US has forbidden dying? If yes, I would like to hear, how on Earth the government is going to punish if one dies without permission doing so...:p
I suggest to take a look at the graphs of other countries.Ackbach said:Incidentally, I have published a https://blog.mathhelpboards.com/causal-effect-of-lockdowns-on-covid-deaths/ (which by no means represents MHB) here on the MHB blog with some data analysis of the causal effect of lockdowns on COVID deaths.
Wait, wait. How does religion factor in here?Ackbach said:It doesn't make sense to debate on higher levels when the disagreements are more fundamental. I am a Christian, I believe that the Bible is the inspired, inerrant, infallible word of God.
(snip)
Jameson said:Ok I derailed this last week. Anything I post publicly here should be taken as just a user of the site. If I am going to use my admin or owner status to do something I’ll go another route. Maybe we can work on giving staff the ability to post without their badges when they want.
Anyway, what if we scope this into just the science of “is COVID as infectious as is claimed?” and “does social distancing help at all or less than is claimed?”. These type of questions. Political and religious stuff is way touchier but we can likely stick to the first part.
Who likes this?
Hi @Ackbach.Ackbach said:Incidentally, I have published a https://blog.mathhelpboards.com/causal-effect-of-lockdowns-on-covid-deaths/ (which by no means represents MHB) here on the MHB blog with some data analysis of the causal effect of lockdowns on COVID deaths.
Jameson said:I am not aware of any data sources for COVID deaths that show a state with relaxed social distancing and no spike in recent new deaths. My home state of Georgia is a great example of opening restrictions very early on and the hazard curve changing course sharply from towards 0 to a new peak level. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/georgia I can easily see how infections is not a metric that can be reliably known but deaths and hospital demand are both much easier to measure. Even if you challenge some percent of the deaths as a false positive for COVID, that doesn't bridge the gap.
Can you recommend sources that demonstrate the lack of effectiveness of social distancing? I would really like to be able to get this data and see what implications it the conclusions drawn from the standard data sets online and widely used.
So you want Far Right, like Faux News?Ackbach said:Do you have some reliable (as in, not Far Left Formerly Mainstream Media such as CNN, MSNBC, Wikipedia, Google, and the like) news sources with information on when that's actually happened? I wasn't aware that any lockdowns had been lifted, but I'm happy to sit corrected.
Country Boy said:So you want Far Right, like Faux News?