Why would the death rate in China bevso much higher than that of the rest of the world; around 5x in China?mfb said:
From the story:kadiot said:
They got a plane where 250 people were put into quarantine. Could just be an update on their status.chemisttree said:
Well, of course you get a one-time jump when changing the criteria.chemisttree said:
According to mfb's Monday post from the NY TimesWWGD said:
mfb said:
With limited capacity for tests the priority would be to test only the already sick (with respiratory illness similar to the expected symptoms) part of the population, not the whole population.OmCheeto said:
All of these are numbers are complicated by self selection and don’t represent the actual numbers. Someone feeling REALLY bad is going to the hospital for testing (filter #1). Some are tested and potentially hospitalized (filter #2). Of that cohort some die (filter #3) and are counted. Some reports indicate that someone found dead on the street or dead at home weren’t being counted at all. Cause of death listed as “pneumonia” rather than nCoV. Even at the hospitals it is reported that confirmed cases with underlying conditions, COPD, heart disease, for example, are listing those conditions as cause of death. At one crematorium (of the several?) around Wuhan a worker reported as many as 60% of the bodies are coming in from people’s homes. Of the death certificates he had, 48 were “suspected nCoV” and only 8 were reported as nCoV fatalities. The fatality rate is being underreported as well so not much can be said at all. He reported that he was seeing 4X-5X more bodies than usual and that he was burning 116 per day as of a few days ago. Take 25% off that number gives us a minimum of 87 bodies more than usual. At one crematorium! He reports another crematorium even busier than his! Just those two are burning nearly 200 bodies a day extra! There are something like 8 crematoriums in Wuhan I believe? These reported numbers are crazy and not much can be divined from them.OmCheeto said:
Yep! It was an update on their status. One of them tested positive, now the US’s 15th case of nCoV.mfb said:
...And I have a bridge I’d like to sell you!OmCheeto said:
No thanks.chemisttree said:
| CFR | Disease |
| ~1% | Mumps encephalitis |
| ~1% | Pertussis |
I was thinking about death cases. Perhaps the virus spread by animals? The high fatalities on animal-human infection, less fatalities on Human-human infection. And human-animal reversal infection impossible?OmCheeto said:
GIGO is GIGO regardless of province. I only believe the numbers that have absolutely no connection to China at this point. And that indicates its easy to transmit, a large fraction of patients have a mild case with minimal symptoms and a fairly low death rate if heroic measures are employed. The first patient in the US was given Remdesivir for crying out loud! How many in China have that level of care? Mumps and pertussis have effective vaccines. Danger isn’t even in the same league, in my opinion. |
chemisttree said:
kadiot said:
Thanks. This is understood. However, community outbreak seems inevitable because, look, in the Philippines, the Department of Health (DOH) started the contact tracing coverage (4 seats in front and 4 seats in back of the patient on the plane, which is appropriate for droplet transmission protocols. They contacted 100% of those guys within 48 hours (the 17% of the ENTIRE plane). It was later that they MODIFIED it to include the whole plane in case the patient MAY have walked around. Close contact definitions preclude casual contact but they expanded it TO BE SURE. Problem is how DOH-investigators will be able to trace the movement of infected persons from the time the plane landed to the discovery of infection. This is of course an ideal case scenario, and would never happen in actual reality, but going to fictitious extremes sometimes puts certain things into a better perspective. Any lapses on tracing movement means there is a possibility of spread then it will multiply. Now, let's go back to Singapore setting, why not make it a given that outbreak is inevitable? What would be the next step? I think, that way, we have a better chance of winning this fight. Hunting on a Patient Zero merely distract us from the larger and more important task like containment and treatment.chemisttree said:
Making a vaccine is pretty easy. Showing that it is safe and effective is the hard part (manufacturing and distributing mass quantities is also hard).kadiot said:
With AI and other advanced technology, would it be possible to develop vaccines and release them immediately whilst still being safe?Ygggdrasil said:
WHO is saying “do not mislead.”Mary Conrads Sanburn said:
Looks like the weather factor is not so plausible. A virus can leave only inside an organic cell unlike bacteria which can live in many different environments. A virus can only replicate from inside a human cell it successfully penetrate. A virus cannot live by itself unlike a bacteria.BWV said:
How do you think AI would help speed up this process?kadiot said:
The flu has clear seasonal patterns in places with seasons. It's not so much how the virus reacts to the temperature, it's how the people react to it: Spend more time indoors, in closer contact with others, and so on.kadiot said: