Probability of Guessing game outcome

In summary, Mr. Keller has a probability of .61 of guessing any one game correctly in the NCAA national tournament. The probability of him picking all 32 first round games correctly can be calculated using the binomial distribution formula, which takes into account the number of trials, probability of a correct guess, and number of correct guesses. If using a calculator, the input would be n=32, p=.61, and x=32, which should give a probability of approximately 10^-7.
  • #1
Destroxia
204
7

Homework Statement



Mr. Keller filled out a bracket for the NCAA national tournament, based on his knowledge of college basketball, he has a .61 probability of guessing anyone game correctly.

What is the probability Mr. Keller will pick all 32 of the first round games correctly?

Homework Equations



Binomial distribution?

The Attempt at a Solution



This class is a calculator course, so I don't know any of the algebraic theory, but I try to plug it into my binomialpdf on my calculator and it's not coming out correctly, how would I calculate this?
 
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  • #2
RyanTAsher said:

Homework Statement



Mr. Keller filled out a bracket for the NCAA national tournament, based on his knowledge of college basketball, he has a .61 probability of guessing anyone game correctly.

What is the probability Mr. Keller will pick all 32 of the first round games correctly?

Homework Equations



Binomial distribution?

The Attempt at a Solution



This class is a calculator course, so I don't know any of the algebraic theory, but I try to plug it into my binomialpdf on my calculator and it's not coming out correctly, how would I calculate this?
What buttons on your calculator have you been taught to press?
 
  • #3
The binomial distribution looks something like:
if x is the number of correct guesses and p is the probability of a correct guess, then the probability of x correct guesses out of n tries P(x) can be written:
*edited, thank you to Ray for pointing it out*
##P(x) =\left( \begin{array}{c} n \\ x \end{array}\right) p^x(1-p)^{n-x}##
Your input for the calculator might be something like shown here where you input [n= number of trials, p=probability of correct, x = #correct].
If the output is anything close to correct, it would be the same as if you calculated the formula for P(x).
In this case, it should give something near ##10^{-7}##.
 
Last edited:
  • #4
RUber said:
The binomial distribution looks something like:
if x is the number of correct guesses and p is the probability of a correct guess, then the probability of x correct guesses out of n tries P(x) can be written:
##P(x) = p^x(1-p)^{n-x}##
Your input for the calculator might be something like shown here where you input [n= number of trials, p=probability of correct, x = #correct].
If the output is anything close to correct, it would be the same as if you calculated the formula for P(x).
In this case, it should give something near ##10^{-7}##.

The formula above is wrong; it should be
[tex] P(x) = {n \choose x} p^x \, (1-p)^{n-x}, [/tex]
where ##{n \choose x}## is the binomial coefficient "n choose x".
 
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FAQ: Probability of Guessing game outcome

What is the probability of guessing the correct outcome in a game?

The probability of guessing the correct outcome in a game depends on the number of possible outcomes and the accuracy of the guesses. For example, if there are two possible outcomes and the guesses are completely random, the probability would be 50%. However, if there are multiple outcomes and the guesses are based on educated predictions, the probability may be higher.

How does the probability of guessing the outcome change if there are multiple rounds in the game?

The probability of guessing the outcome may change if there are multiple rounds in the game because the number of possible outcomes and the accuracy of the guesses may vary with each round. This could result in a different probability for each round or an overall probability for the entire game.

Can the probability of guessing the outcome be calculated?

Yes, the probability of guessing the outcome can be calculated using a mathematical formula based on the number of possible outcomes and the accuracy of the guesses. However, in some cases, the probability may be difficult to calculate if there are variables that are difficult to measure or predict.

Is it possible to improve the probability of guessing the outcome in a game?

Yes, the probability of guessing the outcome can be improved by increasing the number of possible outcomes or by making more accurate guesses. This can be achieved through strategies or techniques such as studying past outcomes, analyzing patterns, or using statistical analysis.

How does the probability of guessing the outcome differ between different types of games?

The probability of guessing the outcome may differ between different types of games because the number of possible outcomes and the accuracy of the guesses may vary. For example, the probability may be higher in a game with only two possible outcomes compared to a game with multiple outcomes. Additionally, certain games may have a predetermined outcome, making it impossible to guess the outcome accurately.

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