Will Israel's Strikes Escalate to Full-Scale War?

[Yonoz]

I hope this will end soon. IDF warplanes dropped 23 tonnes of bombs on a bunker that may have housed a Hizbullah leadership meeting.

 

[kyleb]

Yonoz, could you please answer my question? How many Hizbullah attacks has there been since Israeli started attacking compared to Hizbullah attacks in the same number of days before that?

 

[russ_watters]

Latest count is something like 900 rocket attacks in the past week and there was, of course, one incursion before Israel responded. What is your point? - that's how wars start, with a single act!

 

[darius]

As I said, there seems no end to the conflict between these people. I propose that once the situation in Lebanon becomes a bit calm and peaceful, the world community boycott both Israelis and Palestinians and force them to come to terms on their own so that they learn to tolerate and make peace with each other and seeing that they are originally the same people or mutually self-destruct. This way the world can move on to more important issues such as overpopulation and the massive destruction of the environment.

 

[kyleb]

Latest count is something like 900 rocket attacks in the past week and there was, of course, one incursion before Israel responded. What is your point? - that's how wars start, with a single act!

My point is, that is escalation.

 

[SOS2008]

What kind of response did you expect?
BTW IMO it's the media that's over-reacting. I know there's a slim chance you'll believe me, but I'd like to mention that most of what I see on BBC and CNN is grossly inaccurate. You get the impression as if Beirut in its entirety is targetted, while only one neighbourhood is being bombarded and that after being showered with pamphlets asking civilians to get away several hours earlier. Of course, foreign reporters never go into that Hizbullah neighbourhood so they have no idea.

As stated, Israel overreacted as usual, meaning I expect such action.

To begin, those who are either Jews or Arabs cannot be objective. I am neither a Jew or an Arab and strive to look at the matter without bias, thus taking neither side. One can debate the history endlessly with the only positive outcome possibly being that of understanding each side. But never does such debate culminate in solutions. So in regard to history I will briefly say that, in general, changes in borders--or in this case creating a new nation state will always result in conflict so I question the wisdom of creating Israel in the first place. But it has been done, and I wish the world could just move on in peace. And I say "the world" because unfortunately the entire world is dragged into this ongoing conflict.

My criticism is and always has been of U.S. foreign policy, and to remember to look at such crisis from the big picture point of view. First and foremost the hypocritical double-standard interference and meddling in the Middle East (which has included biased support of Israel) is at the root of the problems there. To expand further on my comments, more recent policies that grew from neoconservative think tanks has made matters even worse. Most notably that illegal regime change to remove Saddam has not resulted in more stability in the region (nor would this be the case in Syria, ahem), and U.S. (or Israeli) aggressiveness has only fuelled anti-west sentiment. With U.S. history and the recent invasion and occupation of Iraq, radical groups such as Hezbollah have gained strength (though I don't know what's worse--this or Americans apathy). Also, the theory that democracy would spread has proven to be a great disappointment. In regard to Lebanon, the so-called government barely exists even so shortly after recent elections.

Now there is no other option but to deal with groups like Hezbollah in a forceful way. And once again the world must fear escalation that could spread beyond a localized skirmish. Personally I suspect that's what a paranoid, hawkish Israel wants. Let's just hope the military action (or war?) remains localized. And let's hope people don't get too hung up on Iranian weapons. After all, it is the U.S. who sold the most arms to Iran in the first place.

What we need is for the U.S. to develop a real and meaningful foreign policy...for everyones sake, because it isn't all about you or them.

 

[russ_watters]

You [kyleb] also said they should not have done it. Why? Why is violence an unreasonable reaction to violence from a group that wants you annihilated?

 

[Cyrus]

Did those 250 Lebanese civilians want Israel annihilated?

I can understand a reaction against Hezbollah, but not against civilians. Only 2 hezbollah out of 250 civilians, no. Find an effective way of killing Hezbollah if that's your goal. I have no problem if you can do that.

 

[SOS2008]

Violence begets violence (spiral escalation). It's better to take away their reason to be (anger), and replace it with hope for a better way of life.

 

[kyleb]

Russ, I'm saying I don't see that other reasonable means had been exhausted, or even given a valid effort for that matter.

 

[Office_Shredder]

So in regard to history I will briefly say that, in general, changes in borders--or in this case creating a new nation state will always result in conflict so I question the wisdom of creating Israel in the first place. But it has been done, and I wish the world could just move on in peace. And I say "the world" because unfortunately the entire world is dragged into this ongoing conflict

Because, it would totally be better if that land was still controlled by Great Britain. Palestine totally wouldn't be occupied or anything then... oh, right.

 

[Rach3]

This is interesting - Shimon Peres went on Larry King today and disputed the accepted Lebanese casualties:

PERES: No, no. We informed publicly, we told many of the Lebanese people who live among the terrorists, we told them either get rid of the missiles or leave your homes. We warned them and then we let everybody that wants to get out, we stopped the shooting and we let everybody go out. Nobody was hurt, by the way. And also, the numbers of the victims are not acceptable.

We think the information coming from Lebanon is totally unreliable, as their behavior is unacceptable. So we're not impressed by it. I know that every night our headquarters hits house and house to make sure that no civilian life will be hit, that no civilian infrastructure will be destroyed. We are not inconsiderated.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0607/19/lkl.01.html

What? "Nobody was hurt"?!

 

[russ_watters]

Did those 250 Lebanese civilians want Israel annihilated?

I can understand a reaction against Hezbollah, but not against civilians. Only 2 hezbollah out of 250 civilians, no. Find an effective way of killing Hezbollah if that's your goal. I have no problem if you can do that.

Setting aside that Lebanon isn't differentiating between civilian and Hezbollah deaths*, "Against civilians" implies you think Israel was intentionally targeting civilians. Do you?

*source: http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/07/20/mideast/index.html

The Lebanese Internal Security Forces reported, however, that 216 people had been killed and 524 injured as of 8 p.m. (1 p.m. ET) Wednesday.

Contrast that with Israel, which specifically lists them separately:

With Wednesday's deaths, 29 Israelis -- 15 civilians and 14 soldiers -- have been killed in the weeklong fighting, according to the IDF.

That's just one of the realities of dealing with a terrorist organization: it is virtually impossible to separate civilian and terrorist causalties because they go to great lengths to hide amongst civilians, which, of course, places the blame for the civilian deaths squarely on the shoulders of Hezbollah according to international law.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_shield

Human shield is a military term describing the presence of civilians in or around combat targets to deter an enemy from attacking those targets. It may also be used to describe the use of civilians to literally shield combatants during attacks, by forcing the civilians to march in front of the soldiers during human wave attacks. Using this technique increases the civilian casualty rate and is highly illegal in any nation that is party to the Fourth Geneva Convention.

 

[russ_watters]

Violence begets violence (spiral escalation). It's better to take away their reason to be (anger), and replace it with hope for a better way of life.

Worthless liberal B.S. rhetoric. Tell me: how did that work for dealing with Hitler?

When someone wants nothing less than your death, you have a simple choice: kill them or let them kill you.

If you disagree, explain how what you just said can actually be implimented. How exactly can Israel "take away their reason [for anger]" without committing mass suicide? What can they reasonably do? How can Israel provide hope? How does not punishing a criminal help ensure that criminal won't commit the same crime again?

 

[russ_watters]

Russ, I'm saying I don't see that other reasonable means had been exhausted, or even given a valid effort for that matter.

Well what is "other reasonable means" and what would constitute a "valid effort"? We can go around in circles forever with this (and with SOS too) - 'war is not the answer' is a slogan, not a means for achieving peace. It is easy to criticize, but you guys are not providing real solutions. If you can't think of a "reasonable means", perhaps that is because there isn't one?

Israel has tried things such as unilateral withdrawals from occupied territories and going to the bargaining table. The other side has not budged an inch from their stance of requiring Israel's annihilation. Which side is making a "reasonable" effort and which isn't?

 

[Yonoz]

Yonoz, could you please answer my question? How many Hizbullah attacks has there been since Israeli started attacking compared to Hizbullah attacks in the same number of days before that?

kyleb, it occurs to me you have no real grasp of the dynamics in this region. Here's an article to help you understand why Hizbullah is bad for the Middle East:
http://www.waronline.org/en/analysis/pal_weapons.htm"

 

[Anttech]

Worthless liberal B.S. rhetoric. Tell me: how did that work for dealing with Hitler?

Worthless liberal B.S. rhetoric? Nice argument Russ :)

Did you not already conceed that the marshal plan worked? Perhaps readup on your history. WW1 left germany in a bad way, the people got angry voted in a megalomanica FACIST and voila WW2 killing another 15 Million people. After WW2 YOUR government together with many others put the marshal plan into action, it created well being amount the Axis and no more war!

The Logic is really very straight forward.

 

[Yonoz]

I can understand a reaction against Hezbollah, but not against civilians. Only 2 hezbollah out of 250 civilians, no. Find an effective way of killing Hezbollah if that's your goal. I have no problem if you can do that.

No one can deliver an accurate picture of Hizbulla and civilian casualties at this point. There's really no way to distinguish a Hizbullah activist from a civilian. I suggest you wait until the conflict is over, which will hopefully be quite soon, before you pass judgement. In the meantime here's the http://www1.idf.il/DOVER/../SIP_STORAGE/DOVER/files/4/54604.wmv" .

 

[Anttech]

kyleb, it occurs to me you have no real grasp of the dynamics in this region. Here's an article to help you understand why Hizbullah is bad for the Middle East:
http://www.waronline.org/en/analysis/pal_weapons.htm"

Hizbullah is bad for the region. But not Lebanon. If your govermenet bring down the government of Lebanenon you will land yourselfs in an even worse situation. The Vacum created by your disposing of a democratic government will be filled by Syria. Yes I aggree get rid of hezbullah, but not at any expense.

I was watching on the news last night (BBC) how many Trucks that have been destroyed now, even convoys of trucks by the Israeli's, the reason: Because they *May* have the ability to carry rockets??!?

Crazy, I hope israel's *daddy* the American Goverment will remove the carte blanche they have given Israel soon, before its too late.

 

[Yonoz]

Hizbullah is bad for the region. But not Lebanon. If your govermenet bring down the government of Lebanenon you will land yourselfs in an even worse situation. The Vacum created by your disposing of a democratic government will be filled by Syria. Yes I aggree get rid of hezbullah.

One of Israel's declared aims is to bring the Lebanese military to deploy in south Lebanon. The IDF keeps from attacking Lebanese military facilities unless they're involved in aiding Hizbullah, such as those naval radar installations. Mark my words: Lebanon's government, perhaps minus one Hizbullah minister, will emerge without a scratch.

 

[Anttech]

I highly doubt that, unless YOU pay for the damage you have cause to their infrastructure. Which is not what is going to happen. Maybe they will still be in power, but like lame ducks, not powerful leadership which is what that country needs.

Tourism was on the up in Lebaneon, Hell I would have Loved to visit there. But after this no way. They have a fragile ecconomy and fragile goverment.

 

[Yonoz]

I highly doubt that, unless YOU pay for the damage you have cause to their infrastructure. Which is not what is going to happen. Maybe they will still be in power, but like lame ducks, not powerful leadership which is what that country needs.

On the contrary: the Lebanese government and people were at the hands of Hizbullah when this began. Hizbullah hijacked the Lebanese government's decision making. Hizbullah decided when Lebanon will be involved and to what extent in whatever conflict Hizbullah chose. Now that Hizbullah is "defanged", as someone put it, it can be just another normal political party.
Let's not forget another small historical tidbit: the Syrian occupation. I think as long as the Lebanese government acts in the best interest of its citizens it will remain intact.

Tourism was on the up in Lebaneon, Hell I would have Loved to visit there. But after this no way. They have a fragile ecconomy and fragile goverment.

We have had 2 children killed here yesterday, and you're concerned with Lebanon's tourism?!

 

[Anttech]

Yes I am! why shouldn't I be?

 

[Yonoz]

Yes I am! why shouldn't I be?

Because there will be no peace in the region if Hizbullah continue to harm Israeli civilians. If Hizbullah is not disarmed then there will be more attacks on Israeli civilians and more limited responses - so the tourism industry is the last thing you should be worried about.
BTW we also have a tourism industry. One of northern Israel's biggest industries is the tourism industry, financing hundreds if not thousands of families. Every time Hizbullah shells northern Israel, they lose their incomes. Never heard anyone outside Israel complain about that though.

 

[Anttech]

Sure, I am not denying that fact. Tel Aviv looks like a nice place. Also being Greek I would like to go to jerusalem. But that's beside the point. Israel is far richer than Lebenon. And Yes I remember recent history, and if you topple the Lebonen government it will repeat its-self. Lebenon should and will be if left to its owe devices be a democratic secular state! Yonoz, Israel is destroying the fabric of the civilian infrastructure in Lebenon, it will take years to repair and hundereds of millions of Euros. The same cannot be said of israel. I feel sorry for your blight, but I truly think the "punishment" that is being given back to lebenon is totally disproportionate.

 

[Anttech]

I want to add for better perceptive:

For the people who are reading this thinking that Lebenon is a "Muslim" country or a radical islamic state out to terrorise Israel because of this. You would be completely wrong. Lebenon is more or less half Islamic half Christian. There are many Millions of Christians, of Eastern Catholic, And Greek Orthodox living in what is an acient and beatiful place, much like Israel. People describe Lebenon as a mediteranian Country like the south of Italy, Greece, coast of Turkey. It has many classical ruins and warm and welcoming people, who are highly educated, and once apon a time where the bed rock of finance for the region.

 

[Yonoz]

Lebenon should and will be if left to its owe devices be a democratic secular state!

While a Lebanese terrorist coalition partner is killing Israeli civilians and kidnapping soldiers? What would Greece do if a Turkish party had its own private army and was shelling Greek towns and villages?

Yonoz, Israel is destroying the fabric of the civilian infrastructure in Lebenon, it will take years to repair and hundereds of millions of Euros.

Bridges and runways are not "the fabric" of a civilian infrastructure. Power facilities, water pumps, dams, hospitals, police stations, government buildings - all these are left untouched. Don't fall prey to the now-tiresome hysteria.

The same cannot be said of israel.

Israel is bombing buildings and bridges. Hizbulla are bombing civilians. Is there any realistic circumstance under which you would see Israeli action as acceptable?
Israel may not be harmed to the extent Lebanon is but no country should wait to be harmed before removing the threat. I'd like to remind you Hizbulla is doing its best to strike at Haifa's petrochemical industries. An unfortunate hit there could mean a regional disaster at a scale you do not wish to imagine.

I feel sorry for your blight, but I truly think the "punishment" that is being given back to lebenon is totally disproportionate.

It seems to me you want to see Israel hurt badly before it does anything to protect itself. I hope you understand me when I say I'd rather Israel struck first and save itself being hurt.

 

[Yonoz]

I want to add for better perceptive:

For the people who are reading this thinking that Lebenon is a "Muslim" country or a radical islamic state out to terrorise Israel because of this. You would be completely wrong. Lebenon is more or less half Islamic half Christian. There are many Millions of Christians, of Eastern Catholic, And Greek Orthodox living in what is an acient and beatiful place, much like Israel. People describe Lebenon as a mediteranian Country like the south of Italy, Greece, coast of Turkey. It has many classical ruins and warm and welcoming people, who are highly educated, and once apon a time where the bed rock of finance for the region.

...and a beautiful riviera. I sincerely hope it becomes those and more once again. I also wish I could visit there safely in my lifetime. Every Israeli I know feels the same. I'd like you to consider that other Middle-Eastern countries are misperceived just the same.

 

[Anttech]

While a Lebanese terrorist coalition partner is killing Israeli civilians and kidnapping soldiers? What would Greece do if a Turkish party had its own private army and was shelling Greek towns and villages

You are confussing Hezbolah and Lebenon. This is a big problem, and is obfusing what is happening. Recently a Turkish fight jet shot down a greek fighter jet over greek airspace, the greek solider died! We didnt start shelling Istanbul. Anyway that's beside the point, its not Lebenon its Hezbolah that are doing this.

Israel is bombing buildings and bridges. Hizbulla are bombing civilians.

Israel is bombing Trucks, roads, ports, airports bridges houses and civilians (unintentional or not they are doing it)

It seems to me you want to see Israel hurt badly before it does anything to protect itself.

I don't think that killing of civilans and destroying the fabic of a country is "defending" its attacking. And the outcome can be much worse for the region when the smoke settles.

now-tiresome hysteria.

No Hysteria here mate, just cold hard facts.

 

[Yonoz]

You are confussing Hezbolah and Lebenon. This is a big problem, and is obfusing what is happening. Recently a Turkish fight jet shot down a greek fighter jet over greek airspace, the greek solider died! We didnt start shelling Istanbul. Anyway that's beside the point, its not Lebenon its Hezbolah that are doing this.

Read what I have written again and tell me which part is untrue. Hizbullah is a terrorist organisation and a Lebanese coalition member.

Israel is bombing Trucks, roads, ports, airports bridges houses and civilians (unintentional or not they are doing it)

Hardly the fabric of a civilian infrastructure. Houses are used to harbour weapons and Hizbullah facilities. I can think of no military that ever has had to deal with a remotely similar threat to its country's civilians and I think the IDF is doing a tremendous job so far. Just a reminder - over 1000 sorties in the first 4 days, more than 100 crafts over Lebanon at one point in time - hunting weapons hidden in population centres. Compare the casualties with any war in history (scaled to match) - I think you'll find they're among the lowest.

And the outcome can be much worse for the region when the smoke settles.

I think otherwise. Even if it is, I think Israel has no choice.

No Hysteria here mate, just cold hard facts.

"Israel is destroying the fabric of civilian infrastructure in Lebanon" is not a fact - it's an assumption. I've shown facts that disprove this assumption - i.e. that power facilities, water supplies, government offices, police facilities, hospitals, food storage and more - that do compose the fabric of the civilian infrastructure - are unharmed.

 

[Schrodinger's Dog]

Israel is bombing buildings and bridges. Hizbulla are bombing civilians. Is there any realistic circumstance under which you would see Israeli action as acceptable?

Israel are bombing civillians and Hizbullah are bombing civillians, I don't think either side could killl more civillians if it started aiming for them deliberately. I would see a cease fire as acceptable, but the US does not, so now we're waiting fro the US to wave there magic wand and resolve the crisis.

 

[Anttech]

I would see a cease fire as acceptable, but the US does not, so now we're waiting fro the US to wave there magic wand and resolve the crisis

yeap, wonder why they are not condemming anything ----hmmmm---- ohh yeah because of the Israeli lobbist in Washington

 

[Astronuc]

Interesting perspectives on the current situation in the Middle East. Hizbullah is apparently flexing its muscle to get back into the 'game'. Syria and Iran are also trying to exert influence. Hmmm, it seems like the old days of the Assyrian, Persian and Babylonian empires when they all tried to control as much territory and trade as possible.

On Fresh Air with Terry Gross -

Islamic Conflicts and Their Impact on the Future
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5567840

Fresh Air from WHYY, July 19, 2006 · Middle East expert Vali Nasr talks about the latest developments there, and about his book The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future.

Understanding Hezbollah's Leadership and Mission
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5567843

Fresh Air from WHYY, July 19, 2006 · A few years ago, writer Jeffrey Goldberg spoke with Hezbollah leaders for a 2002 article in called "In the Party of God: Are Terrorists in Lebanon Preparing for a Larger War?" Goldberg will help us understand the background of the current unrest in Lebanon. Goldberg serves as Washington correspondent for The New Yorker.

 

[Yonoz]

Israel are bombing civillians and Hizbullah are bombing civillians, I don't think either side could killl more civillians if it started aiming for them deliberately.

I can't think of anything more untrue or insulting.

 

[Yonoz]

yeap, wonder why they are not condemming anything ----hmmmm---- ohh yeah because of the Israeli lobbist in Washington

...or because they know, like the rest of the world's leaders, that there's no place for an armed Hizbullah in Lebanon and the only way to solve this problem is to disarm them.
This is a classic Iranian tactic - making violations in small continuous doses and then stalling any effort to put an end to them by dead-end negotiations.