Japan earthquake - contamination & consequences outside Fukushima NPP

[Caniche]

TEPCO says it was 571 billion yen in the red in Q2.
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/business/T110810005340.htm

So who is paying the bill? As if

 

[nikkkom]

The 'hot' area is not a gutter, but rather above ground in a grassy area with shrubs nearby.

Bioaccumulation perhaps. These plants concentrated Cs as plants would usually concentrate K.

 

[Dmytry]

Your objective is to find the maximum contamination so you can keep your family safe. You can survey where your children actually go and play. That makes your survey efficient and effective.

The Japanese government and TEPCO do not have targets that are so clear so their surveys are trying to find out where the contamination went. When it comes to free release or cleanup their surveys should be more detailed.

What you found should be shouted from the rooftops as an example that every citizen in the exposed areas should understand. Large area surveys do not prove it is risk free for an individual.

Hundred percent agreed.

That does not mean they are deliberately trying to miss the hotspots as zapperzero accuses, It is a valid criticism that they have not explained this to the public. And unfortunately that isn't the first time.

One thing that really irked me about this disaster, in the beginning when it was the most important, is the lack of good information on this aspect of the contamination - they would report the contamination figures for cities with two, three, even four figures of accuracy, creating entirely false sense of accuracy, and to some extent playing on people's misunderstanding of difference between radioactivity (as in radioactive dirt) and radiation (as in something that falls off smoothly with distance). They treated the radiation as if it was UV index.

This also goes for this fraud of radiation hormesis and the threshold model, which tries to set a safe threshold or claim a benefit from the low average dose. In principle there could be no safe threshold on the average dose, even if there was a threshold on the safe max dose rate for any tissue, because the doses are not uniform in space and time and may exceed the safe threshold even if the average is below threshold. Thus rendering the threshold model of little use when it comes to declaring contaminated areas safe. Japanese government seem to be rejecting LNT and declaring safe thresholds, while at same time using the averaged doses as if they were to use linear model. That is just bad math.

 

[tsutsuji]

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/national/news/20110907-OYT1T00524.htm & http://www.jiji.com/jc/c?g=soc_30&k=2011090700630 Pr Kunihiko Takeda of Chubu university was asked by the mayor of Ichinoseki, Iwate, to retract his comment aired on television on 4 September asking viewers to throw away Tohoku-grown food, and saying that agriculture should be suspended for one year.

 

[zapperzero]

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/national/news/20110907-OYT1T00524.htm & http://www.jiji.com/jc/c?g=soc_30&k=2011090700630 Pr Kunihiko Takeda of Chubu university was asked by the mayor of Ichinoseki, Iwate, to retract his comment aired on television on 4 September asking viewers to throw away Tohoku-grown food, and saying that agriculture should be suspended for one year.

Go Streisand effect go.

 

[tsutsuji]

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110908p2g00m0dm107000c.html "Above-the-limit cesium found in Iwate beef"

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110908p2g00m0dm109000c.html A 15,000 terabecquerel sea release estimate calculated by researchers doesn't match Tepco's estimate for the unit 2 inlet leak last April. "The big gap indicates radioactive substances could have leaked through other channels"

 

[zapperzero]

"The big gap indicates radioactive substances could have leaked through other channels"

Some of it is simply airborne contamination that fell to the water surface, no?

 

[tsutsuji]

Some of it is simply airborne contamination that fell to the water surface, no?

Yes, the NHK seems to view it that way too :

The researchers say the estimated amount of radioactivity includes a large amount that was first released into the air but entered the sea after coming down in the rain.
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/08_25.html

 

[clancy688]

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110908p2g00m0dm109000c.html A 15,000 terabecquerel sea release estimate calculated by researchers doesn't match Tepco's estimate for the unit 2 inlet leak last April. "The big gap indicates radioactive substances could have leaked through other channels"

It would be nice to know how much of that stuff was C137/134

 

[Caniche]

Some of it is simply airborne contamination that fell to the water surface, no?

True, but concrete is porous. Also what are the chances of a single leak occurring in a plant of this size after an earthquake of that magnitude with multiple aftershocks combined with the pressure of 100,000 tons of radioactive effluent that was never designed for?
Some relevant groundwater analysis might prove enlightening

 

[zapperzero]

True, but concrete is porous. Also what are the chances of a single leak occurring in a plant of this size after an earthquake of that magnitude with multiple aftershocks combined with the pressure of 100,000 tons of radioactive effluent that was never designed for?
Some relevant groundwater analysis might prove enlightening

There was a lot of talk re site geology in the main thread.

 

[tsutsuji]

It would be nice to know how much of that stuff was C137/134

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/science/news/20110908-OYT1T00890.htm "The [15000 TBq] estimate does not comprise Cs-134, so the total is even greater".

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20110909/index.html Internal contamination checks are not progressing fast enough. NHK interviewed local governments and found that 5400, mostly children and pregnant women, or 0.3% of Fukushima population have been tested so far (as of 1 September). The number of whole body counters is not sufficient. The cost of the transportation fees of each person from home to an hospital equipped with a whole body counter is also a problem.

http://mainichi.jp/select/jiken/news/20110909k0000m040089000c.html The number of refugees is 101,931 as of the end of August.

 

[Borek]

http://mainichi.jp/select/jiken/news/20110909k0000m040089000c.html The number of refugees is 101,931 as of the end of August.

Can you clarify - are these just NPP disaster victims, or all earthquake victims?

 

[tsutsuji]

Can you clarify - are these just NPP disaster victims, or all earthquake victims?

The article title is "Fukushima Daiichi NPP: 100,000 refugees outside local government bodies - no prospect of return", so the intention of journalists is to talk about nuclear refugees. Apparently they asked each local government body (city, town or village) in the restricted zone, planned evacuation zone, and evacuation-prepared zone, for the number of inhabitants from their territory who are living outside that territory, and they calculated the total. See the figures for each local government body in the map attached to the article. The name between brackets is the name of the place where each town hall was relocated. Futaba town hall is relocated in Kazo, Saitama prefecture. The question is whether earthquake or tsunami refugees who decided not to come back home although their house is not in a restricted area (like the northern part of Miniamisoma) are included or not. If the map horizontal caption "原発事故で避難している住民の数/number of inhabitants refuging from the nuclear accident" is correct, they should not be included. If the vertical caption "人数は自治体外で生活している住民数/number of inhabitants living outside local government body" means strictly that, then they are. On the other hand, inhabitants of Minamisoma's restricted southern part who took refuge in Minamisoma's northern part are probably not included.

 

[clancy688]

So all in all 0.5 - 1 % of the whole japanese population has been displaced?

What's the meaning of the "25184"-number in the upper corner of the picture, at the location of Minamisoma?

 

[tsutsuji]

What's the meaning of the "25184"-number in the upper corner of the picture, at the location of Minamisoma?

My understanding is that 25,184 Miniamisoma citizens have left the Minamisoma territory and are currently living elsewhere in Japan.

Blog page http://hiroko-abe.at.webry.info/201107/article_8.html provides the following data for Minamisoma

11 March population: 71,635
25 June population: 34,503
Killed: 580
Missing: 109
households whose homes were damaged by tsunami: 1509

 

[clancy688]

Thanks for your answer.

So those citizens are probably from the voluntary evacuation zone or even from locations outside the voluntary evacuation zone.
Do you know how or if they're getting compensated for moving away? Because the government could always argue that they're outside all of the declared zones...

 

[tsutsuji]

So all in all 0.5 - 1 % of the whole japanese population has been displaced?

According to http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/jinsui/tsuki/index.htm , Japan's population estimate for August 2011 is 127,920,000.

101,931 / 127,920,000 = 0.0007968 (0.08 %)

So those citizens are probably from the voluntary evacuation zone or even from locations outside the voluntary evacuation zone.

As is shown with the colors on the map, the Minamisoma territory is divided into 4 parts. The Southern part is in the restricted (forbidden) red zone. The Northern part is in the normal, unrestricted, white zone. The Middle part is in the evacuation-prepared blue zone. The Western part is in the planned-evacuation yellow zone.

Do you know how or if they're getting compensated for moving away? Because the government could always argue that they're outside all of the declared zones...

According to Tepco's website:

What is temporary compensation (with regard to the evacuation)?

It is payment of temporary compensation, that is, for those who live in the areas, due to the accident of out nuclear power station, of "Evacuation" or "Shelter in Place", or "Planned Evacuation" or "Emergency Evacuation Preparation" , designated by the Prime Minister pursuant to Act on Special Measures Concerning Nuclear Emergency Preparedness, we pay 1,000,000 yen per multi-person household (750,000 yen per single-person household) that will be appropriated to the damages that result from the evacuation, as a part of compensation money.
(...)
With regard to the final compensation, we will announce officially after the accident caused by the nuclear power station is settled and the final version of the above-mentioned policy is established.
http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/nu/fukushima-np/karibaraihosyou/faq-e.html

The Article's text is fully translated into English at http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110909p2a00m0na014000c.html (but the map is not available in the English version)

 

[clancy688]

According to http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/jinsui/tsuki/index.htm , Japan's population estimate for August 2011 is 127,920,000.

101,931 / 127,920,000 = 0.0007968 (0.08 %)

Ouch... my mistake, thanks for correction. Mental math isn't my strong suit.

 

[zapperzero]

I'll just leave this here. Citizens decon a school yard, with small child(ren?) in tow.
http://ow.ly/i/hkag
via ex-skf.

 

[rowmag]

From this morning's paper:

Tests show that sunflowers turn out to be quite ineffective at decontaminating soil. Reasons:
1) the cesium is mostly in the top couple of cm of soil, and the sunflower roots are below that; and
2) cesium in the soil quickly binds to clays, and cannot then be sucked out by plants.
The only thing that really works is scraping off the top few cm of soil.
http://www.asahi.com/special/10005/TKY201109140656.html

Up to 1/7th of Fukushima prefecture needs to be decontaminated.
http://www.asahi.com/special/10005/TKY201109140739.html

 

[zapperzero]

More political/economic fallout. Edano says Fukushima Dai-ni to be decomissioned.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-16/tepco-s-fuksuhima-dai-ni-will-be-decommissioned-mainichi-says.html

 

[Jim Lagerfeld]

Yes, I had noticed this in another location which was also downwind of Fukushima Daiichi and raining heavily that day. Two questions, for anyone who knows:

1) Why did the levels drop again after the rain stopped? If it was Cesium being brought down, should it not have remained on the ground and raised the background level permanently afterwards (as happened in the March bursts in several places)? But it doesn't, it drops back to the previous level after the rain stops. Why the difference this time from the spikes in March?

2) What does this imply about the ongoing level of atmospheric emissions from the plant?

According to a post made today at the ex-skf blog, we were not the only people to notice that spike - the blog has translated an article from Playboy which postulates a fresh release of radioactive isotopes around the time:

http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/09/japanese-researcher-recriticality-in.html

A couple of personal observations. Firstly, I have been watching these graphs since March 15th, and that radioactive rainstorm is unique as far as I am concerned - I do not think the 'radon daughter theory' explains it adequately. Wouldn't we be able to see this pattern repeated if the radiation was attributable to natural causes? Also, the peak occurred over a a large geographic area.

Secondly, should we take an article in 'Playboy' seriously? The story cites Yoyo Hinuma, currently at University of California San Diego, so it is not just a 'baseless rumour'. I think the theory should at least be considered on its scientific merits. I'm not a scientist, however I do know a bit about the structure of the media establishment in Japan.

Self-censorship in the Japanese media is a well understood phenomenon amongst Japanese media scholars, and almost all big stories are broken through the 'weekly' tabloids. The Neptunium contamination story is a good example - based on solid University of Tokyo research but only reported by 'SPA!'.

So, all that said, why DID the radiation stop after the rain storm on August 19th? And why was there no iodine or cesium detected in the daily municipal fallout figures, yet iodine suddenly reappears in the sewage sludge in Tokyo, Iwate, Niigata, Nagano and the Sub-drain at Fukushima Unit 1? If we consider Dr Hinuma's theory about re-criticality, could other short-lived fission products explain the radioactive rain we experienced on the 19th of August?

http://i55.tinypic.com/2lavqee.jpg

 

[tsutsuji]

(NHK) & http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20110918/1130_chizu.html The Osaka University research centre for nuclear physics will release on 19 September on its internet homepage a map displaying radiation estimates in 5 years' time in the Fukushima area. The source data are those measured by the ministry of education and science. [At present only a bar graph radiation display with some undated data (the last available ones ?) is available on the following google Earth application: http://www.rcnp.osaka-u.ac.jp/dojo/GE_dose.php ]

 

[tsutsuji]

According to a post made today at the ex-skf blog, we were not the only people to notice that spike - the blog has translated an article from Playboy which postulates a fresh release of radioactive isotopes around the time:

http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/09/japanese-researcher-recriticality-in.html

Here are the graphs for Kawasaki-shi Kawasaki-ku Chidori district (Kanagawa prefecture)

22 May ~ 20 August:

29-30 July:

19 August:

source: http://www.bousai.ne.jp/vis/tgraph.php?area_id=114&post_id=1140000001

I think the peaks on 29-30 July and 19 August are created by the rain, because their maximum is reached shortly after the rain starts pouring. However what is strange is that some peaks in July and August are higher than those in May and June.

 

[tsutsuji]

For example, here is the smaller peak on 22 May (Kanagawa prefecture, Kawasaki-shi Kawasaki-ku Chidori district):

source: http://www.bousai.ne.jp/vis/tgraph.php?area_id=114&post_id=1140000001

However, one should keep in mind that with less than 80 nGy/h, the July and August peaks are smaller than the levels reached in March (222 nGy/h on 15 March at Chidori, Kawasaki):

Here is the 12 March - 11 June trend:

source: http://www.bousai.ne.jp/vis/tgraph.php?area_id=114&post_id=1140000001

 

[tsutsuji]

(NHK) & http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20110918/1130_chizu.html The Osaka University research centre for nuclear physics will release on 19 September on its internet homepage a map displaying radiation estimates in 5 years' time in the Fukushima area. The source data are those measured by the ministry of education and science. [At present only a bar graph radiation display with some undated data (the last available ones ?) is available on the following google Earth application: http://www.rcnp.osaka-u.ac.jp/dojo/GE_dose.php ]

Here is the link to the map with the 5 year span radiation estimates : http://www.rcnp.osaka-u.ac.jp/dojo/GE_time.php

 

[tsutsuji]

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20110920/0440_keikai.html In his address to the IAEA general conference in Vienna on 19 September, Goshi Hosono said that the completion of step 2 (cold shutdown) does not necessarily mean that the restricted zones will be changed or shrunk. Reducing radiations to such levels that do not affect health will take time and an effective method of disposal of the waste generated by the decontamination work has not been found yet. Meeting with director general Amano, US and French representatives, Goshi Hosono obtained their cooperation such as the sending of experts to Japan. Whether decontamination work and waste treatment can be accelerated seems to be a challenge.

 

[zapperzero]

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20110920/0440_keikai.html In his address to the IAEA general conference in Vienna on 19 September, Goshi Hosono said that the completion of step 2 (cold shutdown) does not necessarily mean that the restricted zones will be changed or shrunk. Reducing radiations to such levels that do not affect health will take time and an effective method of disposal of the waste generated by the decontamination work has not been found yet. Meeting with director general Amano, US and French representatives, Goshi Hosono obtained their cooperation such as the sending of experts to Japan. Whether decontamination work and waste treatment can be accelerated seems to be a challenge.

Let's send a letter of thanks to Capitain Obvious here.

 

[zapperzero]

http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/news_images/pdf/ENGNEWS01_1316578041P.pdf
According to JAIF which quotes NHK which quotes TEPCO and/or the J-gov

the amount of radioactive substances released from the plant was about
200-million becquerels per hour in the first half of September. They say that's
about one-four millionths of the level of the initial stages of the accident in
March.

So now we have another number to plug into those SPEEDI simulations. The number is 8*10E+14 Bq/h, unless I misplaced some zeroes along the way.

 

[zapperzero]

http://where-are-the-clouds.blogspot.com/
discusses plumes in a rather exhaustive manner.

 

[tsutsuji]

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-fukushima/20110922/1440_youso.html The ministry of education and science releases a map of Iodine pollution. Iodine 131 has an 8 day long half life. Of the 2200 measurement points, only 400 provided relevant data. The shape of the polluted area is the same as that of Cesium 137. The Iodine 131/Cesium 137 ratio is higher in the North-West area than in the South area.

http://where-are-the-clouds.blogspot.com/
discusses plumes in a rather exhaustive manner.

Isn't his theory written on 31 March that "the insertion of sea water in the spent fuel pool of reactor 4 on March 21st, seems consistent with the dose rate increase in Ibakari several hours later (please note that I am not saying it is the only reason, just that it seems consistent based on the incomplete data we have so far)" a bit strange? Should not the radiation decrease rather than increase after they poured water? It is a bit disappointing that this blog was discontinued instead of being updated. I wish we could know if the author still believes in his theory.

 

[zapperzero]

Isn't his theory written on 31 March that "the insertion of sea water in the spent fuel pool of reactor 4 on March 21st, seems consistent with the dose rate increase in Ibakari several hours later (please note that I am not saying it is the only reason, just that it seems consistent based on the incomplete data we have so far)" a bit strange? Should not the radiation decrease rather than increase after they poured water?

Not necessarily. Lots of radioactive steam may have been produced.

 

[Jim Lagerfeld]

Here's an interesting one from up north:

Early results are in from the ongoing monitoring of citizens in Minami Soma on the edge of the exclusion zone. It appears citizens' internal exposure increased much more rapidly during the period April 3-June 4 than it did March 20-May 19:

http://www.asahi.com/national/jiji/JJT201109200045.html (Japanese)

...

"The JAEA concluded that Cesium that has fallen and subsequently been disturbed from the ground's surface causes 10 times more internal exposure than direct inhalation"
...

"The result showed that the direct inhalation of Cesium 134 and 137 caused 0.0076-0.0099 milliSv internal exposure, while inhalation of re-floated particles lead to internal exposure of 0.077-0.09 milliSv, approximately ten times higher."

One immediate question is how did they control for ingestion through contaminated food?

I suspect they simply accepted the government's spurious assurances that there is no contaminated food entering the supply chain, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

 

[tsutsuji]

Not necessarily. Lots of radioactive steam may have been produced.

Has this theory been discussed in scientific literature before March 2011? Is the mentioned phenomenon the same as what is otherwise called a "steam explosion" ?