A Question about Expected value

In summary: I don't know which one is right. Can somebody help me?In summary, the conversation discussed finding the maximum likelihood estimate for theta in a nonregular case, calculating the constant c for which E(c*theta) = theta, and determining the maximum likelihood estimate for the median of the distribution. The conversation included discussions on using the order statistics formula and the technique of using the probability density function for iid X_i. However, different approaches led to different answers, creating confusion and a need for clarification.
  • #1
Artusartos
247
0

Homework Statement



Suppose [itex]X_1, ... , X_n[/itex] are iid with pdf [itex]f(x,\theta)=2x/(\theta^2)[/itex], [itex] 0<x\leq\theta[/itex], zero elsewhere. Note this is a nonregular case. Find:

a)The mle [itex]\hat{\theta}[/itex] for [itex]\theta[/itex].
b)The constant c so that [itex]E(c\hat{\theta})=\theta[/itex].
c) The mle for the median of the distribution.

Homework Equations


The Attempt at a Solution



a) I got [itex]\hat{\theta} = max\{X_1, ... ,X_2\}=Y_n[/itex]
b) I was stuck here...

I need to find the pdf for [itex]Y_n[/itex] using the order statistics formula, right?

So this is what I got...[itex]f_n(y_n)=\frac{n!}{(n-1)!(n-n)!}[F(y_n)]^{n-1}[1-F(y_n)]^{n-n}f(y_n)[/itex]

= [itex]n(F(y_n))^{n-1}f(y_n)= n(\frac{-2x}{\theta})^{n-1}(\frac{2x}{\theta^2}) [/itex]

= [itex]n(\frac{-2x}{\theta})^{n}(\frac{\theta}{-2x})(\frac{2x}{\theta^2}) [/itex]

= [itex]n(\frac{-1}{\theta})(\frac{-2x}{\theta})^n [/itex]

So now I want to find the expected value, but I'm not sure what the boundaries need to be for the integral...so can anybody help me?

Thanks in advance
 
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  • #2
Artusartos said:

Homework Statement



Suppose [itex]X_1, ... , X_n[/itex] are iid with pdf [itex]f(x,\theta)=2x/(\theta^2)[/itex], [itex] 0<x\leq\theta[/itex], zero elsewhere. Note this is a nonregular case. Find:

a)The mle [itex]\hat{\theta}[/itex] for [itex]\theta[/itex].
b)The constant c so that [itex]E(c\hat{\theta})=\theta[/itex].
c) The mle for the median of the distribution.


Homework Equations





The Attempt at a Solution



a) I got [itex]\hat{\theta} = max\{X_1, ... ,X_2\}=Y_n[/itex]
b) I was stuck here...

I need to find the pdf for [itex]Y_n[/itex] using the order statistics formula, right?

So this is what I got...


[itex]f_n(y_n)=\frac{n!}{(n-1)!(n-n)!}[F(y_n)]^{n-1}[1-F(y_n)]^{n-n}f(y_n)[/itex]

= [itex]n(F(y_n))^{n-1}f(y_n)= n(\frac{-2x}{\theta})^{n-1}(\frac{2x}{\theta^2}) [/itex]

= [itex]n(\frac{-2x}{\theta})^{n}(\frac{\theta}{-2x})(\frac{2x}{\theta^2}) [/itex]

= [itex]n(\frac{-1}{\theta})(\frac{-2x}{\theta})^n [/itex]

So now I want to find the expected value, but I'm not sure what the boundaries need to be for the integral...so can anybody help me?

Thanks in advance

The formula for ##f_n(y)## must not have x in it! Do you mean
[tex] f_n(y) = n \left( \frac{-1}{\theta} \right) \left(\frac{-2x}{\theta}\right)^n?[/tex]
I hope not, because for even n this whole expression is < 0, so you have a negative probability density.

Why not just use [tex]P\{ \max(X_1,X_2, \ldots, X_n) \leq y \} = P\{ X_1 \leq y, X_2 \leq y, \ldots, X_n \leq y \}\\
= F_X(y)^n [/tex] for iid ##X_i##?
 
  • #3
Ray Vickson said:
The formula for ##f_n(y)## must not have x in it! Do you mean
[tex] f_n(y) = n \left( \frac{-1}{\theta} \right) \left(\frac{-2x}{\theta}\right)^n?[/tex]
I hope not, because for even n this whole expression is < 0, so you have a negative probability density.

Why not just use [tex]P\{ \max(X_1,X_2, \ldots, X_n) \leq y \} = P\{ X_1 \leq y, X_2 \leq y, \ldots, X_n \leq y \}\\
= F_X(y)^n [/tex] for iid ##X_i##?

Thank you. So...

[itex]F_X(y)=\frac{y^2}{\theta^2}[/itex], right? So...

[itex]P\{ \max(X_1,X_2, \ldots, X_n) \leq y \} = P\{ X_1 \leq y, X_2 \leq y, \ldots, X_n \leq y \} = P(X_1 \leq y)P(X_2 \leq y)...P(X_n \leq y) = (\frac{y^2}{\theta^2})^n[/itex], right?

But I'm still a bit confused about the boundaries for the intergral for the expected value...
 
  • #4
Artusartos said:
Thank you. So...

[itex]F_X(y)=\frac{y^2}{\theta^2}[/itex], right? So...

[itex]P\{ \max(X_1,X_2, \ldots, X_n) \leq y \} = P\{ X_1 \leq y, X_2 \leq y, \ldots, X_n \leq y \} = P(X_1 \leq y)P(X_2 \leq y)...P(X_n \leq y) = (\frac{y^2}{\theta^2})^n[/itex], right?

But I'm still a bit confused about the boundaries for the intergral for the expected value...

Of course you need ##0 \leq y \leq \theta## in the above. For ##y > \theta## we have ##F_Y(y) = 1##.
 
  • #5
Ray Vickson said:
Of course you need ##0 \leq y \leq \theta## in the above. For ##y > \theta## we have ##F_Y(y) = 1##.

Thanks a lot. When I use the technique that you suggested, I get...

[itex]P\{ \max(X_1,X_2, \ldots, X_n) \leq y \} = P\{ X_1 \leq y, X_2 \leq y, \ldots, X_n \leq y \} = P(X_1 \leq y)P(X_2 \leq y)...P(X_n \leq y) = (\frac{y^2}{\theta^2})^n[/itex]

When I use the order statistics (I did it again, because the one I did before was wrong), I get...

[itex]f_n(y_n)=\frac{n!}{(n-1)!(n-n)!}[F(y_n)]^{n-1}[1-F(y_n)]^{n-n}f(y_n)[/itex]

= [itex]n(F(y_n))^{n-1}f(y_n)= n(\frac{{y_n}^2}{\theta^2})^n(\frac{\theta^2}{y_n})(\frac{2y_n}{\theta^2}) =(\frac{2n}{y_n})(\frac{{y_n}^2}{\theta^2})^n [/itex]

This question is also solved in this link (question 2):

http://www.math.harvard.edu/~phorn/362/362assn6-solns.pdf

All three of these answers are different. I keep repeating this to see if I did something wrong, but I just keep getting the same answers. It's really frustrating...
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Related to A Question about Expected value

1. What is expected value?

Expected value, also known as mean or average, is a measure of the central tendency of a probability distribution. It represents the theoretical long-term average of a random variable's values.

2. How is expected value calculated?

To calculate expected value, you multiply each possible outcome by its probability and then sum up all of these products. This can also be represented as the sum of each outcome multiplied by its respective probability.

3. Why is expected value important?

Expected value is important because it helps us make decisions based on probabilities. It can also be used to evaluate the fairness of games and determine the potential outcomes of a situation.

4. Can expected value be negative?

Yes, expected value can be negative. This means that the potential outcome of a situation is more likely to result in a loss rather than a gain. It is important to consider both positive and negative expected values when making decisions.

5. How can expected value be applied in real life?

Expected value can be applied in various fields, such as finance, business, and insurance. For example, businesses can use expected value to make strategic decisions based on potential outcomes and their probabilities. Insurance companies use expected value to calculate premiums and assess risk.

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