Calculating Winning Probability in Horse Racing and Sock Selection

In summary, the first problem involves determining the probability of winning a horse race by "boxing" three horses, with the correct solution being 1/14. The second problem involves calculating the probability of selecting a certain number of red socks from a drawer, with the correct solutions being 300/729 and 304/729 for exactly one red sock and at least two red socks, respectively. However, the previous solution for the second problem using binomial distribution is incorrect due to the assumption of independent events.
  • #1
six789
127
0
this is the problem...
1. nine horses are entered in a horse race. If you "box" three horses (three are chosen and they can finish in any of the first 3 positions in the race), determine the probability that you will hold the winning ticket.
-->i tried this one... (3C1*3C2*3C3)/9C3 but my answer is 3/28, which is wrong, it should be 1/14
2. A drawer contains four red socks and five blue socks. Three socks are drawn one at a time and then put back before the next selection. Determine the probability that
i. exactly red socks are selected
--> i did this... [(4C2*5C3) + (4C1*5C4) + (4C0* 5C5)]/9C3 = 27/28, but it is wrong since the answer in the book is 304/729
ii. at least two red socks are selected
--> i don't get this one..
 
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  • #2
There are 6 ways of holding the winning ticket and C(9,3) total ways of selecting any three horses for win, place and show.
 
  • #3
For the Horse problem the answer is 3P3/9C3
(not sure if it is P cause in portugal we use A but in my calculator it says P it means the number of possible combinations of 3 horses in 3 different places where order counts (3!/(3-3)! = 3!)

The second problem we can deal with it with binommial distribution:
being x the number of consecutive red socks u take, u have
n=3; p=4/9
if u want to know the porbability of getting 1 red sock:
p(x=1)=3C1*(4/9)^1*(5/9)^2=300/729

for at least 2 red socks
p(x>1)=p(x=2)+p(x=3)=3C2*(4/9)^2*(5/9)+3C3*(4/9)^3=304/729
 
  • #4
Sorry, my previous solution on the socks problem is wrong. I'm rly sry but i was really sleepy. Binomial distribution doesn't apply cause each act of choosing a sock is not indepandent from the others (Choosing 1 sock makes the probability of the next sock different). I also don't get the first question: do u want the probability of how many red socks?
 

FAQ: Calculating Winning Probability in Horse Racing and Sock Selection

How is winning probability calculated in horse racing?

In horse racing, winning probability is calculated by taking into account factors such as the horse's past performance, the jockey's skill, the track conditions, and the horse's age and weight. These factors are used to assign a number to each horse, known as an "odds," which represents the likelihood of that horse winning the race.

What is the importance of calculating winning probability in horse racing?

Calculating winning probability in horse racing is important because it helps bettors make informed decisions when placing bets. By understanding the likelihood of a horse winning, bettors can choose which horses to bet on and how much to bet, increasing their chances of winning.

How do you calculate the odds for each horse in a race?

The odds for each horse in a race are calculated by dividing 100 by the winning probability percentage. For example, if a horse has a 20% chance of winning, its odds would be 100 divided by 20, which equals 5. The lower the odds, the higher the chance of winning.

What factors should be considered when selecting socks for horse racing?

When selecting socks for horse racing, it is important to consider factors such as the weather, the type of race, and personal preference. Socks made of breathable and moisture-wicking materials are ideal for warm weather, while thicker socks can provide warmth in colder conditions. For longer races, compression socks can help improve circulation and reduce muscle fatigue.

Can selecting the right socks improve a horse's performance?

While socks may seem like a small detail in horse racing, they can actually play a role in a horse's performance. The right socks can provide comfort and support, preventing rubbing and blisters, and can also help regulate temperature and improve blood flow. This can ultimately lead to a more comfortable and potentially better performing horse.

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