- #1
Skyhunter
With the $100 billion a year for the Iraq/Afhgan wars, and now $60 billion for Katrina, we are going further and further into debt as a nation.
I hear the argument all the time in support of Reagans 'voodoo economics', which this administration has embraced, that cutting taxes increases revenues.
I read a few articles a few weeks ago saying that federal revenues are up this year and the presidents projections of halving the deficit in 5 years is on course. This is an obfuscation of the facts.
Here is an in depth analysis of the tax revenue picture.
I hear the argument all the time in support of Reagans 'voodoo economics', which this administration has embraced, that cutting taxes increases revenues.
I read a few articles a few weeks ago saying that federal revenues are up this year and the presidents projections of halving the deficit in 5 years is on course. This is an obfuscation of the facts.
Here is an in depth analysis of the tax revenue picture.
http://www.cbpp.org/7-12-05bud.htmTemporary Factors Related to the Revenue Increase
Much of the recent upsurge in revenues appears to stem from temporary developments, not from tax-cut-fueled economic expansion. In fact, one of the causes of the sizeable increases in tax receipts between 2004 and 2005 is the expiration of a large tax cut.
A large business tax cut enacted in 2002 — the accelerated depreciation tax cut — expired at the end of 2004. This is producing a significant increase in business tax payments in 2005 — an increase estimated at $51 billion by the Joint Committee on Taxation when the provision was enacted. Revenues are rising in this case because a tax cut is no longer in effect. The expiration of the accelerated depreciation tax cut causes tax revenue from businesses to jump significantly from 2004 to 2005, and then jump again from 2005 to 2006. But the unusual increase in revenues cannot be repeated thereafter because the provision can expire only once. The future growth rate of business tax revenues will revert to normal, all other things being equal.[6]
Tax returns for 2004, which are filed in fiscal year 2005, appear to have included a substantial increase in capital gains tax payments, reflecting the increase in the stock market in 2004. The stock market now appears to have stopped rising; it has been flat in recent months. Capital gains revenues cannot be expected to continue increasing at the rate they did between 2004 and 2005. (See the box above, which cites an analysis of this issue by the investment firm Goldman-Sachs.)
An additional one-time boost in 2005 revenues is occurring because last fall’s corporate tax legislation allows businesses with foreign profits being held abroad to bring the profits back to the United States in 2005 only and pay taxes at a modest 5.25 percent rate, rather than at the normal corporate tax rate of 35 percent. This will increase revenues by several billion dollars (or more) in 2005, as corporations rush to take advantage of this windfall, but according to the Joint Tax Committee’s estimates, it will result in modest revenue losses in 2006 and thereafter.
To be sure, 2005 tax receipts are running higher this year than CBO and OMB projected earlier this year. But the greater-than-anticipated revenue growth comes mostly from increases in corporate income taxes and non-withheld individual income taxes, as CBO repeatedly stresses, not from increases in taxes on wages and salaries. If the tax cuts had been sparking a “supply-side miracle” by inducing people to work more or encouraging businesses to expand employment, then real economic growth, job growth, and withheld taxes would have significantly surpassed expectations, as well. Instead, economic growth and job growth have been modest, and CBO’s current estimates for 2005 economic and job growth are now very slightly lower than CBO’s January forecast. In addition, withheld tax receipts appear to be similar to CBO’s expectations.[7] [8]