Can Terrorism Futures Markets Predict Events Accurately?

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In summary, legislators are divided on the Pentagon's Policy Analysis Market (PAM), with some finding it "grotesque" and others seeing it as a useful tool for predicting future events. However, there are concerns that the market could potentially encourage terrorism and involve foreign investors, including those who finance terror. It is worth noting that the market does not use real money, but the idea of such a market is still considered unusual and controversial.
  • #1
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"Legislators like Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) may have found the Pentagon's Policy Analysis Market, or PAM, "grotesque." But proponents of "idea markets" say PAM's quicksilver cancellation will rob the country's intelligence agencies of a tool with a strong history of accurately predicting future events."

http://www.wired.com/news/politics/0,1283,59818,00.html
 
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  • #2
OK, but at the same time, wouldn't investors have a cause to ENCOURAGE terrorism and the like?
 
  • #3
Originally posted by Zero
OK, but at the same time, wouldn't investors have a cause to ENCOURAGE terrorism and the like?

To me this idea just stinks; but there is some logic to it. Still, you make a good point. It could end up contributing to the problem.
 
  • #4
Originally posted by Ivan Seeking
To me this idea just stinks; but there is some logic to it. Still, you make a good point. It could end up contributing to the problem.

Especially since(I think I read this), foreign investors will participate, possibly including the very individuals who finance terror, like George H.W. Bush's saudi business partners.
 
  • #5
It didn't appear to me that the market would use real money. The examples they gave such as the Hollywood Stock Exchange do NOT use real money. Its all just an intellectual exercise.

That said, its still a pretty bizarre idea.
 

FAQ: Can Terrorism Futures Markets Predict Events Accurately?

What is "The Case for Terrorism Futures"?

"The Case for Terrorism Futures" is a concept proposed by researchers to create a market for predicting and trading on potential terrorist attacks. It would involve setting up a platform where individuals or institutions could buy and sell contracts based on the likelihood of specific terrorist events occurring.

How would this concept work?

The concept would involve collecting and analyzing data from various sources, including intelligence agencies, news outlets, and social media, to assess the probability of potential terrorist attacks. This information would then be used to create contracts that individuals or institutions could buy and sell based on their predictions of the likelihood of these events occurring.

What is the purpose of "The Case for Terrorism Futures"?

The purpose of this concept is to potentially provide a more accurate and effective way of predicting and preventing terrorist attacks. By creating a market for such predictions, it is believed that individuals and institutions would have an incentive to share and analyze information, leading to better insights and potential early warnings of terrorist activities.

Is "The Case for Terrorism Futures" ethical?

There is much debate about the ethical implications of this concept. Some argue that it could be seen as profiting off of potential tragedies, while others argue that it could be a valuable tool for preventing terrorist attacks. Further research and discussion are needed to fully assess the ethical implications of this concept.

What are the potential risks of implementing "The Case for Terrorism Futures"?

One potential risk is the potential for manipulation or exploitation of the market for personal gain. There is also concern that this concept could potentially incentivize individuals or groups to carry out terrorist attacks in order to profit from the market. It is important to carefully consider and address these risks before implementing such a concept.

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