Can the Levees Withstand Hurricane Gustav's Force?

[jtbell]

It's approaching the western end of Cuba as a category 4 hurricane already. It looks like it will hit the U.S. on Monday night or Tuesday morning. The mayor of New Orleans said today, "I am strongly, strongly encouraging everyone in this city to evacuate. Start the process now."

From cnn.com: "Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour announced Friday that Hurricane Katrina victims living in government-issued trailers or mobile homes along his state's coast would begin evacuating Saturday."

 

[Evo]

If it does hit New Orleans, this will be the first test of the new levees.

New Orleans really shouldn't exist in it's present state. When being above water depends on the constant pumping out of water to exist, there's something wrong, IMO.

 

[Astronuc]

The three day projection has Gustav passing just west of NO, which means they'll get the heavy NE side of the hurricane. Probably a lot of rain and flooding, and high winds with that.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/180114.shtml?3day

 

[turbo]

There are indications that Gustave might track through the Loop Current - a deep basin of very warm water that has been responsible for intensifying other hurricanes.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080829/ap_on_sc/sci_gustav_loop_current;_ylt=AnoNU621kmdxLMkgljht7GCs0NUE

 

[isly ilwott]

If it does hit New Orleans, this will be the first test of the new levees.

New Orleans really shouldn't exist in it's present state. When being above water depends on the constant pumping out of water to exist, there's something wrong, IMO.

Naturally, those who live in the flood plain expect those of us who don't to pay for their damages when the levees fail again. Rebuilding New Orleans below sea level is one of those gambles that should be paid for by the gamblers.

I prefer to be at a thousand feet.

 

[turbo]

Naturally, those who live in the flood plain expect those of us who don't to pay for their damages when the levees fail again. Rebuilding New Orleans below sea level is one of those gambles that should be paid for by the gamblers.

I prefer to be at a thousand feet.

Holy Crap! The devil is wearing ice-skates. I've not yet been on the same side of almost any issue as you.

 

[Evo]

For people not familiar with the history of New Orleans.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drainage_in_New_Orleans

 

[LowlyPion]

President Bush is holding his ultimate disaster relief weapon in reserve until the hurricane hits - Michael Brown.

 

[jtbell]

What is Brownie doing now, anyway? I don't remember reading anything about him after he did some TV or magazine interviews claiming that he had basically been made into a scapegoat.

 

[Redbelly98]

Gustav's projected track, once it enters the Gulf, is very similar to Katrina's.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807.gif

p.s. Hmmm. Do [ img ] tags not work for .gif files?

 

[Evo]

Gustav's projected track, once it enters the Gulf, is very similar to Katrina's.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807.gif

p.s. Hmmm. Do [ img ] tags not work for .gif files?

The tags don't work in this forum.

 

[Andre]

The guys http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/forum-view.asp?fid=17 monitor the beast closely and post updates by the minute, so to see.

 

[LowlyPion]

What is Brownie doing now, anyway? I don't remember reading anything about him after he did some TV or magazine interviews claiming that he had basically been made into a scapegoat.

Work for InferX Company

Brown began as an adviser to a publicly traded company, InferX[21] which claims its technology is the answer to the U.S.A's security concerns, as well as the credibility problems of the DHS and FEMA. Brown has been on the media circuit talking about technology that claims to screen for terror suspects, track threats in shipping containers and cargo hauling, and gather data for law enforcement tracking. As of December 2007, Brown was named CEO of InferX.

Work for Cotton Companies

As of 2007, Brown worked for Cotton Companies, a private firm specializing in disaster recovery. Throughout 2007 and early 2008 Brown made appearances to the press on behalf of Cotton companies. In these appearances, he referred to the lessons that he had learned from his experiences as the head of FEMA during Hurricane Katrina.

Gives me the warm fuzzies thinking he is working on keeping the country safe from terrorism I can tell you.

 

[Redbelly98]

The guys http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/forum-view.asp?fid=17 monitor the beast closely and post updates by the minute, so to see.

I get a page with 30+ discussion topics and links. Nothing with "Gustav" in it. Where do we go from that page, to find the Gustav updates?

edit:

The tags don't work in this forum.[/QUOTE]
Okay, thanks for the info.

 

[turbo]

I get a page with 30+ discussion topics and links. Nothing with "Gustav" in it. Where do we go from that page, to find the Gustav updates?

edit:

Okay, thanks for the info.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=25235&start=281&posts=281

 

[Andre]

There are two threads in there about Gustav just scroll down below the stickies

 

[Redbelly98]

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=25235&start=281&posts=281

Thanks.

There are two threads in there about Gustav just scroll down below the stickies

Weird, I did a search on gustav and there was nothing on that page. But this one shows a few:
http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/forum-view.asp?fid=23

 

[LowlyPion]

Google Earth with the weather layer turned on looks pretty current. With the lag between satellite picture and ground base radar you can see the direction of the eye even.

Remembering past storms, I'd think the current track showing west of the mouth of the Mississippi will be somewhat to the east by the time it hits landfall. The further to the east it hits of New Orleans the better for New Orleans anyway. Though Mobile-Pensacola may be in for a tougher time. I certainly would not wish its landfall on anyone however. The eye wall looks pretty well defined.

If it makes it's way much more to the west though it could be pretty bad in NO. Such a shame.

 

[Evo]

Yes, it will be bad if the hurricane hits N.O., but maybe a good lesson that you shouldn't live on reclaimed swampland at the mouth of a river on a gulf prone to hurricanes.

 

[Pyrrhus]

Wow!, Let's just hope for the best really. When Gustav was here in my country (Dominican Rep.), it was mostly rain and thunder from last friday to this past wednesday. As a nation we really can't afford to rebuild too much, not to mention the loss of human lives.

 

[gravenewworld]

Here come higher gas prices for no apparent reason.

 

[russ_watters]

There are no "updates by the minute" on hurricanes. The information on hurricanes comes from here and is updated every 4 hours or so after they fly a plane through the hurricane and update their models: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

The "forecast discussion" is where those guys are getting most of the information for that thread.

 

[Astronuc]

As of this morning:

At 700 am CDT (0800 EDT)...1200z...the center of hurricane gustav was located
near latitude 24.7 north...longitude 85.5 west or about 375 miles...
605 Km...southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr...and
this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with
some decrease in forward speed expected on monday. On this track...
Gustav will be moving across the central Gulf of Mexico today...and
make landfall on the northern Gulf Coast on Monday.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120
mph...195 km/hr...with higher gusts. Gustav is a Category 3
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some restrengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours...and Gustav could regain
Category 4 strength later today or tonight. Fluctuations in
strength are likely...but Gustav is forecast to remain a major
hurricane until landfall.

Gustav is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 50 miles...85 km...from the center...and tropical
storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles...325 km. The NOAA
automated station at Pulaski Shoal Light, Florida recently reported
2-minute average winds of 51 mph...81 km/hr...with a gust of
60 mph...96 km/hr.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force
hurricane hunter is 960 mb...28.35 inches.

An extremely dangerous storm surge of 18 to 25 feet above normal
tidal levels is expected near and to the east of where the center
of Gustav crosses the northern Gulf Coast.

NO may benefit from the winds pushing the water in Lake Ponchatrain away from the city, but then there is a signicant tidal surge to deal with, as well as high wind in the NE quadrant.

 

[Gokul43201]

When I read this headline (Warning for Looters: Go directly to Angola) , I thought it was related to events in Zimbabwe.

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/crime/2008/08/31/sotvo.nola.nagin.to.looters.wvue

 

[Art]

NO should be okay. The flood defences are a lot better now than they were prior to Katrina so should cope with a cat 3 hurricane without too much trouble.

 

[Gokul43201]

NO should be okay. The flood defences are a lot better now than they were prior to Katrina so should cope with a cat 3 hurricane without too much trouble.

It looks like NO will be spared, but it's a combination of things. The storm has veered westwards over the past few hours, resulting in lower storm surges (current estimates are about 8' to 10'). I think most levees in the NO vicinity are 10' to 15' (or higher?)

The question wasn't whether the levees would hold as much as whether the surge would overflow them.

 

[Gokul43201]

What is Brownie doing now, anyway?

If you turn on NBC you'll find out in a couple minutes.

 

[Astronuc]

At 800 am CDT...1300z...the center of hurricane Gustav was located
near latitude 28.9 north...longitude 90.4 west or about 80 miles...
125 Km...south-southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana and about 130
miles...210 km...southeast of Lafayette, Louisiana. This position
is also about 20 miles...35 km...southwest of Port Fourchon along
the Louisiana coast.

Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr...and
this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with some
decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn toward the west-
northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track...the center will
cross the Louisiana coast by midday today.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110
mph...175 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Gustav a Category
2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. No significant change
in strength is likely before landfall...with weakening expected to
begin after gustav moves inland later today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...from
the center... and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230
miles...370 km. The National Ocean service station in Shell Beach,
Louisiana recently reported a wind gust of 64 mph...104 km/hr.

The area with hurricane winds missed NO by about 10 miles.

Looks like Grand Isle is getting hammered, and the eye will pass close to Baton Rouge.

NO may get by with this one - but I would expect others to follow. It may be that NO should expect one Cat 3/3+ hurricane about every five years, and Florida and Gulf Coast should expect at least one on average every year.

 

[Gokul43201]

Apparently, there is some serious concern about the Jefferson Parish - West Bank area of NO. This is a particularly low lying area, and there could be significant damage done there. Current surge levels at higher ground are at about 5'. Gustav downgraded to Cat 2, but some levees still have a fair to good chance of overflowing. But the immediate damage to people has been avoided by the evacuation. There are currently about 10,000 people staying behind in NO, La. and about 2 million have evacuated the nearby coastal areas.

 

[Evo]

Looks like Gustav is steadily decreasing in strength. It should only be a Cat 2 by the time it hits land.

 

[jaap de vries]

If it does hit New Orleans, this will be the first test of the new levees.

New Orleans really shouldn't exist in it's present state. When being above water depends on the constant pumping out of water to exist, there's something wrong, IMO.

Two thirds of the Netherlands are below sea level and we're just fine. Granted we don't have hurricanes, but we do have surges and storm floods and the North Sea is generally more wild then the gulf. We have been pumping out water since the 1600's what else do you think those funny windmills are for?
People should invest in proper protection against the water and we as people are smart enough to do so. It should be state funded in my opinion.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

I'm impressed the levees have held up so far. A video shows a sea of water bashing into what looks like a 1-2ft of concrete wall.