Chance of a terrorist A-bomb detonating in a major city

[NewScientist]

I think SOS2008's post is very interesting however one must also use the thought process that a concession such as the withdrawl of troops in response to a specific grievance of a terrorist group will lead other groups to believe they can accomplish what they want by attacking the US. This is rather similar to the 1930s problem where states began to use war as an instrument of foreign policy as the world failed to act over machuria and the like - i.e. give them a foot they take a mile.

On the idea of the attacks on a civilian US target, I believe that a Nuclear strike anywhere in the country would cause massive and perhaps crippling economic damage and mass hysteria that could cause civil unrest and massive problems. Also if a nucelar bomb went off in DC during a sitting of the houses with the president and v.p. in DC - imagine the reprocussions for the government. I believe an attack on a US civilian target - as an insturment of war by a foreign state or as a display of hatred by a terrorist group is a very present and real threat.

-NS

 

[Kakarot]

I saw a documentary on the al qaeda fleet of ships. Apparently they own up to several dozen commercial shipping vessels around the world. They use them to make money for their organization and maybe to ship weapons. In the program they said that almost none of the containers that reach us are inspected. If they got a nuke they could easily bring it in themselves on their own ships or on a legitimate one. I agree with Dale that once its in they just have to drive it their desired location. But they could just as easily blow it up at a port.

They are making a new scanning device now that all crates will pass through to detect radioactive materials. Also the containers will be inspected in their original country of departure. They said it can take like a day to inspect one container by hand and there are hundreds on those boats that come in.

Also on another program about the russian mafia there were allegedly mobsters in miami looking to sell a nuke to undercover agents. I don't know if they acquired it but I don't think that kind of story would ever get out to the public.

 

[Townsend]

If the reasons for attacks are removed, there will be no excuse or sympathy for their cause.

Do you believe that? What makes you think the other countries of world will take sides with the US unless it is in their own best interest?

And if everyone does not mind I would appreciate it if Ms. help the liberals next election would be allowed to speak for herself.

 

[NewScientist]

I saw a documentary on the al qaeda fleet of ships. Apparently they own up to several dozen commercial shipping vessels around the world. They use them to make money for their organization and maybe to ship weapons. In the program they said that almost none of the containers that reach us are inspected. If they got a nuke they could easily bring it in themselves on their own ships or on a legitimate one. I agree with Dale that once its in they just have to drive it their desired location. But they could just as easily blow it up at a port.

They are making a new scanning device now that all crates will pass through to detect radioactive materials. Also the containers will be inspected in their original country of departure. They said it can take like a day to inspect one container by hand and there are hundreds on those boats that come in.

Also on another program about the russian mafia there were allegedly mobsters in miami looking to sell a nuke to undercover agents. I don't know if they acquired it but I don't think that kind of story would ever get out to the public.

I saw a documentary saying the moon was made of cheese. Something you must also consider is that the Us gov't takes part in illegal operations and as such will not b ereported - these included assasinations, seizing of goods etc and so the inspection of a boat by delta for example would not be brodacast

 

[vanesch]

Also if a nucelar bomb went off in DC during a sitting of the houses with the president and v.p. in DC - imagine the reprocussions for the government.

This will certainly NOT happen by the hands of OBL. He will never do that to his best promotor !

 

[selfAdjoint]

This will certainly NOT happen by the hands of OBL. He will never do that to his best promotor !

Seeing that OBL was the reason Bush beat Kerrie in 2004, it works both ways!

 

[Dayle Record]

A nuclear weapon detonated by an American insider would benefit if the insider was also able to blame the detonation on someone else, or some outside nation. If such a catastrophe were to happen, it was discussed plainly that this nation would go under martial law, until further notice. That this form of government is obsolete anyway. Chillingly it was a major player in the current Iraq conflict that made this statement, oh yes, it was Tommy Franks, yes it was. That statement by General Franks, now retired, was read by me as a terrorist statement, threatening the American People if we didn't fully accept the threat assessments of this government at the onset of the Iraq invasion.

That mentality of "we are the best", "we recruit the best", "there is no better", in regards to the Cyber Security of the DOD, is the same mentality that allowed the Shuttle disasters. The only real security is world peace, and taking care of our world, and everything on it. Peaceful trade that serves humans of every social circumstance, that is what makes peace happen on a day to day basis.

The odds are stacked against us, at this time, in regards to nuclear attacks. We are the only nation that has ever made nuclear war. This creates a vacuum of sorts, I have heard it said that "Nature abhors a vacuum."

In regards personally to my thinking, I think about many things, and study many things. Nothing that I say here, that purports to be of a serious nature, is said with lack of forethought. I just don't let any particular loyalty, or hatred, get in the way of my realistic, or unrealistic assessments of things.

I believe strongly that the citizens of the United States, have been ceaselessly terrorized by their own government since GW Bush took office. I think that the secrecy, the illegal agendas, the artificial separations between entities supposedly doing similar work; has resulted in a very poor performance in terms of government security services to the American people. We are all in more jeopardy than we have been since the depth of the cold war. Why?

Because none of these billions have benefited the American people, only war corporations. Our government has misbehaved in Iraq, and therefore leaving more than a hundred thousand american soldiers in harm's way. These loyal Americans did not deserve to be used in this way.

Now the baby boomers are a huge, upcoming problem, because the money that would have eased the retirement of this huge generation fresh born from WW2 reconstruction, has been spent trying to create an oil energy monopoly, world wide. Who is in charge in Afghanistan? We are, and I have to think that the agenda was the heroin trade, and the Unocal pipeline. All that smoke about anything else, was just that.

How many billions of dollars does it take to find a needle in even the biggest haystack? One man's needle is the next mans goose laying billions of golden eggs, by virtue of his continued existence, and perceived threat index.

Fact: We have to demand better behavior from our leaders, if we want to feel safe in this nation, or traveling in any other nation. We have to learn to treasure what is ours, and leave the rest alone. We have to be certain we are really doing good, as opposed to doing what we are told is good.

In answer to the question posed at the top of this thread, there is a very good chance of such a weapon being detonated by forces that oppose our government's actions, well yes there is. There is a lot of money floating around to support activities like this. But detonation of these weapons will harm, all nations that trade. We are a big market, until we are bankrupted we have more money to spend than anyone, even with our enemies. It is counter productive to do us in, in a reasonable mindset. But, go for broke types, zealots of any creed, males whose families can't fund bride prices, and followers of mono-sexual firebrand ministers, will do such a thing as this, and feel Godly about it.

Again, I think it will be us, or one of our "allies" that does this. It will be a threat made privately and unrevealed to the American people, and carried out for revenge in some bigger play that no reasonable entity, will have been invited to. It then will be the excuse to take whatever the original game piece was, including our nation.

 

[The Smoking Man]

A nuclear weapon detonated by an American insider would benefit if the insider was also able to blame the detonation on someone else, or some outside nation. If such a catastrophe were to happen, it was discussed plainly that this nation would go under martial law, until further notice. That this form of government is obsolete anyway. Chillingly it was a major player in the current Iraq conflict that made this statement, oh yes, it was Tommy Franks, yes it was. That statement by General Franks, now retired, was read by me as a terrorist statement, threatening the American People if we didn't fully accept the threat assessments of this government at the onset of the Iraq invasion.

Am I the only one that appreciates Peter Sellers movies? Dr. Strangelove, Or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Bomb (1964)

Or how about http://home.earthlink.net/~atomic_rom/007/6.htm

http://www.thezreview.co.uk/reviews/s/sumofallfears.htm

Too much time on my hands I guess.

 

[edward]

Am I the only one that appreciates Peter Sellers movies? Dr. Strangelove, Or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Bomb (1964)

Or how about http://home.earthlink.net/~atomic_rom/007/6.htm

http://www.thezreview.co.uk/reviews/s/sumofallfears.htm

Too much time on my hands I guess.

TSM you need some laughs. Try to find an older English movie titled: Cold Comfort Farm.

Ohhh Gawd now I am having a flashback. I was working in underground missile silo's when Dr. Strangelove was released.

 

[The Smoking Man]

TSM you need some laughs. Try to find an older English movie titled: Cold Comfort Farm.

Ohhh Gawd now I am having a flashback. I was working in underground missile silo's when Dr. Strangelove was released.

You'll love this then.

 

[2CentsWorth]

Do you believe that? What makes you think the other countries of world will take sides with the US unless it is in their own best interest?

And if everyone does not mind I would appreciate it if Ms. help the liberals next election would be allowed to speak for herself.

Dude, we all interact as we choose. And if you'd make your case with a little more information and facts it would be more helpful than derogatory remarks directed at a specific member.

 

[SOS2008]

Do you believe that? What makes you think the other countries of world will take sides with the US unless it is in their own best interest?

And if everyone does not mind I would appreciate it if Ms. help the liberals next election would be allowed to speak for herself.

My quote per your post was:

Originally Posted by SOS2008 -
If the reasons for attacks are removed, there will be no excuse or sympathy for their cause.

I do not say anything about other countries taking sides with the U.S. I say the terrorists will lose sympathy for their cause, just as they have within Islam for the taking of innocent civilian lives. Success in bleeding the U.S. militarily and economically helps them gain support/recruits, and this is now best accomplished in Iraq.

 

[cronxeh]

Its very likely that they take over one of American missile silos and detonate it on the spot or even launch it manually

 

[NewScientist]

Its very likely that they take over one of American missile silos and detonate it on the spot or even launch it manually

what evidence do you have for this claim

 

[cronxeh]

Evidence is for the federal agents to find, its not my niche. Suppose an optimal combination of an airman's family taken hostage, a certain missile silo under a complete electronic and EM blanket cover - no signals in and out, and a total military overthrow of a particular silo

Impossible? I think not. The US government doesn't think and neither has the capacity to execute protective measures against a broad scale professional terrorist attack that would include a statistical monitoring of a given base or missile installment over a period of time, a surveilance of every military personnel working on that base, a detailed knowledge of rocket science - from blueprints to knowledge of advanced engineering, and a significant amount of firepower to overrun, takeover and control anyone of those silos.

I bet as of today 'osama bin laden' is no longer a key terorrist worry for US. However there are a lot of people with money and a Bayesian conspiracy lovers who could hire ex-KGB specialists and execute aforementioned procedure. Improbable? Very probable. Likely to occur? depends on how far the US foreign policy is willing to go

 

[Skyhunter]

Evidence is for the federal agents to find, its not my niche. Suppose an optimal combination of an airman's family taken hostage, a certain missile silo under a complete electronic and EM blanket cover - no signals in and out, and a total military overthrow of a particular silo

Impossible? I think not. The US government doesn't think and neither has the capacity to execute protective measures against a broad scale professional terrorist attack that would include a statistical monitoring of a given base or missile installment over a period of time, a surveilance of every military personnel working on that base, a detailed knowledge of rocket science - from blueprints to knowledge of advanced engineering, and a significant amount of firepower to overrun, takeover and control anyone of those silos.

I bet as of today 'osama bin laden' is no longer a key terorrist worry for US. However there are a lot of people with money and a Bayesian conspiracy lovers who could hire ex-KGB specialists and execute aforementioned procedure. Improbable? Very probable. Likely to occur? depends on how far the US foreign policy is willing to go

Now I am starting to worry.

 

[loseyourname]

It sounds like you just watched Crimson Tide. That exactly what the Russian rebel group did in that movie. They overwhelmed a Russian missile silo and held the world hostage. The only thing that kept them from launching until the Russians could get their military into retake the silo was the fact that they didn't have the launch codes.

If you know anything about how missile launches work, I'd appreciate some input. From what I know, while you can manually launch the missiles, you wouldn't be able to aim them at any specific target unless they were pre-programmed. Detonating it on the spot doesn't seem like it would be that disastrous, at least compared to an urban detonation, as the silos are in relatively remote and unpopulated areas. It would destroy a lot of farmland though. Thankfully, weather systems in the midwest tend to run north-south, so the fallout would end up in Mexico or Canada depending on the time of year, rather than the US seaboards.

 

[russ_watters]

If the reasons for attacks are removed, there will be no excuse or sympathy for their cause.

Since the primary reason for their attacks is our existence, that is not a concession I'm willing to make.

 

[vanesch]

Since the primary reason for their attacks is our existence, that is not a concession I'm willing to make.

Well, I agree of course with you that one should not be ready to give up on one's own existence

But the point was:
"If the reasons for attacks are removed, there will be no excuse or sympathy for their cause."

And that is correct ; well, there will be LESS sympathy for their cause. Your presence in Iraq is making a lot of people HAVE SYMPATHY for the terrorists and their cause, which wouldn't have that sympathy for them if you weren't over there.

Of course it doesn't mean that withdrawing from Iraq will somehow SOLVE the terrorism problem, but at least it will not MAKE IT WORSE AS IS HAPPENING NOW. You guys don't seem to understand that your action over there is a propaganda movie for OBL!

EDIT: well, I have to contradict my own argument: the very act of withdrawing itself will of course ALSO be propaganda for OBL (he will be victorious, or at least perceived to be so). It's a catch-22.

 

[NewScientist]

If you know anything about how missile launches work, I'd appreciate some input. From what I know, while you can manually launch the missiles, you wouldn't be able to aim them at any specific target unless they were pre-programmed.

If the warhed was on a cruise missil ethe course can be chnged midflight so no preprogramming is required. If a ballistic missile is used such as an MIRV, the independant missles can be set different targets whilst air borne.

Detonating it on the spot doesn't seem like it would be that disastrous, at least compared to an urban detonation, as the silos are in relatively remote and unpopulated areas.

An 80 megaton yield bomb (highest yield thoguht probable) is predicted to be able to incinerate objects up to 80 miles away. So i wouldn't feel too saf eif one of those babies went off! The risk after explosion is not just airborne radiatoin bt also radiation in food webs etc, water ways.

 

[Informal Logic]

Since the primary reason for their attacks is our existence, that is not a concession I'm willing to make.

I realize this is the propaganda being bandied about in America, that the terrorists want to exterminate all infidels from the face of the Earth. If you believe this, I have some great deals for you.

EDIT: well, I have to contradict my own argument: the very act of withdrawing itself will of course ALSO be propaganda for OBL (he will be victorious, or at least perceived to be so). It's a catch-22.

Once again, I think this has been exaggerated for purposes of defending the policy of further occupation of Iraq. For one thing, there are many more issues in Iraq to be considered as you listed in your earlier posts. All the US needs to do is state accomplished objectives and that it is now time for international assistance with nation building, etc. I fail to see what is so difficult about this, and suspect all that prevents this course of action are the imperialistic dreams of the neocons.

 

[edward]

Currently all missile launch capabilities can be disabled remotely by military personnel hundreds of miles away. Short of using many tons of high explosives it is impossible to gain entrance into a missile silo.

Upon entering the locked outer door all entrants pass into a containment area and must give a code word to proceed. If an Airman is held hostage he has been trained to give a duress word which locks down everything.

The minuteman missiles are the only ground based nukes left. The warhead itself cannot be detonated without having passed through a fail safe criteria. Opps I cant' tell you exactly what that entails.

As far as commandeering a missile launch control center, whatever you may think up, the Airforce had it covered years ago.

On the other hand as I mentioned earlier, a nuke in a shipping container has the highest probability of success. Homeland security has not yet sufficiently addressed that problem.

A nuke could also be driven across the Mexican border in a truck. Drug runners haul tons of drugs over the border daily.

 

[Skyhunter]

Currently all missile launch capabilities can be disabled remotely by military personnel hundreds of miles away. Short of using many tons of high explosives it is impossible to gain entrance into a missile silo.

Upon entering the locked outer door all entrants pass into a containment area and must give a code word to proceed. If an Airman is held hostage he has been trained to give a duress word which locks down everything.

The minuteman missiles are the only ground based nukes left. The warhead itself cannot be detonated without having passed through a fail safe criteria. Opps I cant' tell you exactly what that entails.

As far as commandeering a missile launch control center, whatever you may think up, the Airforce had it covered years ago.

On the other hand as I mentioned earlier, a nuke in a shipping container has the highest probability of success. Homeland security has not yet sufficiently addressed that problem.

A nuke could also be driven across the Mexican border in a truck. Drug runners haul tons of drugs over the border daily.

These scenarios sound more likely.

A renegade scientist(s) builds a crude bomb, or one is purchased on the black market.

Hey, where did all the Iraqi Nuclear scientists go and what are they doing today?

[edit] I should have known, typed in "Iraqi nuclear scientists" and it was the first link.

The Iraqi scientists from Saddam Hussein's nuclear and biological weapons programs posed a huge risk to international safety after Saddam's fall. So why did the Bush administration refuse to track down the scientists after the 2003 invasion of Iraq? Mother Jones reports that all but three of Saddam's top 200-some nuclear scientists are missing.

http://www.motherjones.com/radio/2005/08/082105_broadcast.html

 

[devil-fire]

if the right people got a nuke from an arms dealer (former general) of the USSR, got a standard sized cargo container and drove it to the docks and payed to have it loaded on an ocean liner bound for new york and detonate it when the boat stoped, it would be bad. there aren't a lot of people who could pull that off though.

first you need someone who is willing to kill millions of civilians. there are a lot of those lately but fortunately they are poor, uneducated, xenophobic and if they are part of a like minded organization, they are also watched to some degree. if anyone With the money and With the international connections tryed to buy a bomb, they wouldn't have an easy time of keeping it a secret since people keep an ear on those guys for that exact reason. by that time they are a lightning rod in a storm.

korea might be a problem and iran has the potential to be a Big problem if their nuclear program continues and isn't monitored.

if you think 10-15 years down the road, things could become more viable for the nuke on boat deal. some people say star wars is great because its planing for the future. i say your more resources are a lot better spent on preventing commercial and private boats from being a viable transportation for a nuclear weapon