Checking Stationarity of ARMA (2,1) Model

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In summary, the conversation is discussing how to determine if a given ARMA (2,1) model is stationary. To do this, they need to check the mean, variance, and covariance, and see if they are dependent on time. The mean is determined to be zero, as well as the expectation for each term in the equation. The time series is assumed to be a random Gaussian noise, with independent and identically distributed values. The expectation of each term is found to be zero. There is also a discussion about the relationship between Z and x, and how to solve for the expectation of x.
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Is the following ARMA (2,1) model stationary?

xt + 1/6xt-1 – 1/3xt-2 = εt + 0.7εt-1

Inorder to know if a model is stationary. we check the mean, variance and the covariance and check whether it is dependent on time.

Obviously the mean is zero but my problem is how do i carry out the variance can i combine AR and MA together or do i do it separately?

and another problem is what does E[(xt-1)^2] gives me? I know E [(εt)^2] gives σ^2.

Thx
 
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I am not specialized in ARMA, so I may be missing something when I ask "how is the mean obviously zero"?
 
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Well I should have said this earlier.

The time series is a random Gaussian noise so Zt is independent and identically distributed. hence E[Zt] = 0 --> which is the expectation(mean) and E[(Zt)^2] = σ^2 --> expectation variance.

To answer your question the expectation of each term in the equation is 0.
e.g 1/3E[xt-2] = 0
since we assume the process is stationary then E[xt-1] = E[xt] and so E[xt] α E[Zt] = 0
 
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How are Z and x related?

If E [ε{t}^2] = σ^2, can't you solve E[(x{t})^2] = E[(-1/6x{t-1} + 1/3x{t-2} + ε{t} + 0.7ε{t-1})^2] if you assume E[(x{t})^2] = E[(x{t-s})^2] ?
 

FAQ: Checking Stationarity of ARMA (2,1) Model

What is stationarity in the context of an ARMA (2,1) model?

Stationarity refers to the property of a time series where the statistical properties, such as mean and variance, do not change over time. In the context of an ARMA (2,1) model, this means that the coefficients of the model do not change as time progresses.

How do you check for stationarity in an ARMA (2,1) model?

There are several methods for checking stationarity in an ARMA (2,1) model. One common method is to visually inspect the time series plot and look for any trends or patterns. Another method is to perform statistical tests, such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, which tests for the presence of a unit root in the data. If the p-value of the test is less than the chosen significance level, the null hypothesis of non-stationarity is rejected.

What is the importance of checking stationarity in an ARMA (2,1) model?

It is important to check for stationarity in an ARMA (2,1) model because a non-stationary time series can lead to incorrect model coefficients and unreliable forecasts. Additionally, many statistical tests and assumptions rely on the data being stationary, so it is essential to ensure stationarity before proceeding with analysis.

What are some possible causes of non-stationarity in an ARMA (2,1) model?

Non-stationarity in an ARMA (2,1) model can be caused by trends, seasonality, or any other systematic patterns in the data. It can also be the result of a structural break or a change in the underlying process that generates the data.

What can be done if the ARMA (2,1) model is found to be non-stationary?

If the ARMA (2,1) model is found to be non-stationary, there are several steps that can be taken to address the issue. One option is to try to transform the data to achieve stationarity, such as taking differences or logarithms. Another option is to incorporate differencing or seasonal components into the model. Alternatively, a different model, such as an ARIMA or SARIMA model, may better fit the data. It is important to carefully consider the underlying data and the purpose of the analysis when deciding on the best course of action.

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