Child molester avoids prison because he is short

[Gokul43201]

Gokul,

Please address this, the most important of my responses to you:

Rounding my figures off to 11.8 and 7.76, and assuming that your figures of 7% and 5% are true, 11.8 to 7.76 is still a much higher ratio than 7 to 5. Even if your figures are correct, in Florida short men are still more likely to be incarcerated or on probation or parole than tall men.

I got the 7% and 5% numbers from the picture I linked. You can make your own estimate. I was just eyeballing it. Even if I was right, but only rounding off to the nearest integer, those numbers could be 7.49% and 4.51% which reverses the conclusion, even if only by a little bit.

As of now, the error bars on the percentages are large enough that they include the exact ratio of 11.8/7.76 quite readily.

 

[stickythighs]

As of now, the error bars on the percentages are large enough that they include the exact ratio of 11.8/7.76 quite readily.

No they don't.

 

[stickythighs]

The point isn't this odd case, it is the suggestion that tall people are imprisoned less frequently.
I was suggesting that in the US, it is that white people are imprisoned less frequently and in Florida white people are on average taller than the hispanic/latino minority - whereas in Chicago they are probably shorter than the african-american minority.

No; the disparity has little or nothing to do with race.

There were 7,117 white men 5'5" or shorter under the supervision of the Florida criminal justice system.

There were 4,680 white men 6'3" or taller under the supervision of the Florida criminal justice system.

 

[mgb_phys]

That's interesting. As I said in your other thread, you would expect the opposite correlation for violent crimes.

Maybe these were the only ones the police caught - a correlation between prisoners and 100m sprint times :-)

 

[Artman]

I wonder what his defense was?

"Your Honor, If my client is sent to prison, he'll be preyed upon sexually by men that are larger and stronger than he is."

Sounds like justice to me.

 

[Kurdt]

Sounds like justice to me.

Really? Dehumanising and abusing people is justice is it?

Its no wonder we never get anywhere with the criminal justice system if politicians have to appease the ignorant masses.

 

[stickythighs]

That's interesting. As I said in your other thread, you would expect the opposite correlation for violent crimes.

Maybe these were the only ones the police caught - a correlation between prisoners and 100m sprint times :-)

Probably most people under the supervision of the criminal justice system are not incarcerated, on probation, or on parole for violent crimes.

I have been mugged before. Earlier this year five guys beat me up and robbed me in Springfield, Missouri. They were all taller than me, but almost all guys are taller than me. I am only 5'1".

There's a darn good way to get to the bottom of this. I'll do a search for violent crimes on the Florida criminal justice database.

 

[stickythighs]

That's interesting. As I said in your other thread, you would expect the opposite correlation for violent crimes.

There were 1070 white men 5'5" or shorter under the jurisdiction of the Florida criminal justice system for assault and battery.

There were 554 white men 6'3" or taller under the jurisdiction of the Florida criminal justice system for assault and battery.


There were 170 white men 5'5" or shorter under the jurisdiction of the Florida criminal justice system for robbery.

There were 117 white men 6'3" or taller under the jurisdiction of the Florida criminal justice system for robbery.
------------

5'5" and shorter white men are almost twice as likely to be arrested for assault and battery than 6'3" and taller men.

5'5" and shorter white men are 50% more likely to be arrested for robbery than 6'3" and taller men.

The statistics still hold even for violent crime. Weird.

 

[binzing]

Child molesters deserve nothing less than the black hole of calcutta.

Child molesters SHOULD be sodomized...

 

[WarPhalange]

Are you applying for the job?

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

5'5" and shorter white men are almost twice as likely to be arrested for assault and battery than 6'3" and taller men.

5'5" and shorter white men are 50% more likely to be arrested for robbery than 6'3" and taller men.

In 2004, there were 9.3 million blacks living in poverty and 16.8 million whites. Whites were 80% more likely to be living in poverty than blacks. Weird.

 

[stickythighs]

In 2004, there were 9.3 million blacks living in poverty and 16.8 million whites. Whites were 80% more likely to be living in poverty than blacks. Weird.

Your statistics of 9.3 million blacks living in poverty and 16.8 million whites living in poverty might be true, but whites are not 80% more likely to be living in poverty than blacks. Blacks are more likely to live in poverty than whites. Whites comprise about 70% of the American population. Blacks comprise about 12% of the American population. That is why there are more whites living in poverty than blacks, even though blacks are more likely to live in poverty than whites.


I did not just make up my statistics. If you don't believe any of the figures that I've quoted about the height of people under the supervision of the Florida criminal justice system, check it out yourself at the following link:

http://www.dc.state.fl.us/ActiveOffenders/search.asp

 

[mgb_phys]

In 2004, there were 9.3 million blacks living in poverty and 16.8 million whites. Whites were 80% more likely to be living in poverty than blacks. Weird.

US population 2006, total 300M
White: 74% or 221.3 million
Black or African American: 13.4% or 40.9 million

So the same statistic says roughly 1/4 blacks live in poverty and 1/13 whites.

 

[stickythighs]

US population 2006, total 300M
White: 74% or 221.3 million
Black or African American: 13.4% or 40.9 million

So the same statistic says roughly 1/4 blacks live in poverty and 1/13 whites.

Yep; that's why I said the following: "Blacks are more likely to live in poverty than whites."

 

[mgb_phys]

Yep; that's why I said the following

Sorry, your post wasn't there when I wrote my reply - I was commenting on jimmysnyder's answer.
The forum sw sometimes does that if two replies are within a minute of each other.

Edit sorry jimmy, just realized that was exactly the point you were trying to make - you have to look behind the simple stats.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

I did not just make up my statistics.

Nor I mine.

 

[binzing]

Are you applying for the job?

What? No, simply stating that he can be the pincushion of the prison. Besides, it would probably keep the amount of fights down if everybody "had somebody" lol.

 

[Gokul43201]

No they don't.

Huh?? What do you mean by that?

7.25% / 4.75% is almost exactly identical to 11.8/7.76

And even if you ignore error bars from eyeballing a number out of the picture, there are additional errors that creep in from:

1. Extrapolating national data to Florida
2. Not correcting for age (the age distribution of inmates does not match the age distribution of the general population)
3. Not accounting for natural variance in incarceration rates over time (even over short time scales)
4. Not correcting for socio-economic background and local ethnic variations compared to the national average.

Your conclusion is premature.

 

[stickythighs]

Gokul,

I believe that your graph is incorrect. I believe that the median height of American men is
5'10". If I'm correct, then my thesis is correct.

If your graph is correct, you are correct.

 

[Artman]

Really? Dehumanising and abusing people is justice is it?

Its no wonder we never get anywhere with the criminal justice system if politicians have to appease the ignorant masses.

No, I think the justice is that he should be afraid of having the same thing he did to the girl happen to him.

You really think there is more harm done by putting this man in prison than placing him on probation? I read that the chemicals in the brain that lead to sexual addiction are 100 times more addictive than crack cocaine. You think this man is harmless to children merely under court supervision? I think he should at least have to undergo therapy, and I don't see that in the ruling.

Under terms of his probation, he will be electronically monitored for the first four months of his sentence, cannot be alone with people under 18 years old and must destroy his collection of pornography.

 

[Kurdt]

Fear of prison is neither justice nor a deterrent. People have to move beyond petty reactionary revenge reflexes. I agree that if sex addiction is this guys problem then he should have some form of therapy.

I don't know if he is more of a danger out of prison than in it. That was up to the judge and they made their decision.

 

[Gokul43201]

Gokul,

I believe that your graph is incorrect. I believe that the median height of American men is
5'10". If I'm correct, then my thesis is correct.

If your graph is correct, you are correct.

Please read the 4 points I listed out about various sources of error that you do not account for in your thesis.

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

No, I think the justice is that he should be afraid of having the same thing he did to the girl happen to him.

You really think there is more harm done by putting this man in prison than placing him on probation? I read that the chemicals in the brain that lead to sexual addiction are 100 times more addictive than crack cocaine. You think this man is harmless to children merely under court supervision? I think he should at least have to undergo therapy, and I don't see that in the ruling.

It's incredibly common for guards to tell other inmates that a person is in as a sex offender specifically in order to put the person in danger. Some times they will even bribe or reward inmates for 'taking care of' sex offenders. And it's not sexual abuse against sex offenders in prison that they really have to worry about. They worry about being killed.

 

[Artman]

It's incredibly common for guards to tell other inmates that a person is in as a sex offender specifically in order to put the person in danger. Some times they will even bribe or reward inmates for 'taking care of' sex offenders. And it's not sexual abuse against sex offenders in prison that they really have to worry about. They worry about being killed.

That could happen outside of prison as well. I wonder how the parents took the verdict? They could not protect their child against this man, imagine the possible feelings of guilt. Now he's out on probation without serving time at all.

 

[stickythighs]

1. Extrapolating national data to Florida

Since the ratios still held true when I only included whites in my samples, I don't see how extrapolating national data to Florida would skew the results.

2. Not correcting for age (the age distribution of inmates does not match the age distribution of the general population)

Inmates tend to be young adults, between 18-30. 18-30 year olds tend to be taller than the average American. Therefore, correcting for age would bolster my thesis.

3. Not accounting for natural variance in incarceration rates over time (even over short time scales)

But my sample size is enormous. How in the nation could coincidences of a few tall or short people being arrested skew the results? I must not understand your point. Please elaborate.

4. Not correcting for socio-economic background and local ethnic variations compared to the national average.

Yes; Correcting for socio-economic background would make a substantial difference.

Although we're talking about a fairly small skew here, poor people tend to be shorter than affluent people. Very short people tend to be poor. Yes; saying that short Floridian men tend to be under the jurisdiction of the Florida Criminal Justice System is saying that poor Floridian men tend to be under the jurisdiction of the Florida Criminal Justice System.