- #1
whitehorsey
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1. Assume that there is a 50% chance of hard drive damage if a power line to which a computer is connected is hit during an electrical storm. There is a 5% chance that an electrical storm will occur on any given summer day in a given area. If there is a 0.1% chance that the line will be hit during a storm, what is the probability that the line will be hit and there will be hard drive damage during the next electrical storm in this area?
2. Bayes Theorem? P(A|B) = (P(B|A) * P(A))/ P(B)
3. I'm thinking it has something to do with Bayes Theorem...
P(hard drive damage) = 0.5
P(electrical storm) = 0.05
P(line hit) = 0.001
I started off by figuring out what is the probability of the line getting hit:
P(l|es) = (0.001 * 0.05)/ 0.05 = 0.001
but I'm not sure what I should do next and if my P(l|es) is correct.
2. Bayes Theorem? P(A|B) = (P(B|A) * P(A))/ P(B)
3. I'm thinking it has something to do with Bayes Theorem...
P(hard drive damage) = 0.5
P(electrical storm) = 0.05
P(line hit) = 0.001
I started off by figuring out what is the probability of the line getting hit:
P(l|es) = (0.001 * 0.05)/ 0.05 = 0.001
but I'm not sure what I should do next and if my P(l|es) is correct.