Converting R-Value to Percent Uncertainty in Linear Regression Predictions

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In summary, the conversation discusses the use of a trendline with a function of y = 5x + 6 and an r value of R^2 = 3 for predicting data points on a graph. The question is raised about how to convert the r value into a percent uncertainty in the prediction of the function and how to add an uncertainty value to the predicted result. The solution proposed is using the 'standard error of residuals' to calculate confidence intervals for the predictions. The formula for calculating the error bounds is also provided.
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24forChromium
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I just need a quick answer, say I have a bunch of data points on a graph, I made a trendline with a function of
y = 5x + 6, and a r value of R^2 = 3, is there a way of converting the r value into a percent uncertainty in the prediction of the functions? Say I used the function to predict when x = 4, the result would be 26 when the function is infinitely accurate, but since it's not, how can I add an uncertainty value to the 26?
 
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If you want to express confidence intervals for your predictions, I think the 'standard error of residuals' is the number needed.

The assumption underlying ordinary least squares linear regression is that the dependent variable is equal to the predicted linear sum (which is deterministic) plus a a random error term ('residual') that is normally distributed.

If you want a two-sided x% confidence interval for your estimate then the error bounds are estimate plus/minus

stderror times ##\Phi^{-1}(\frac{1}{2}(x+1))## where ##\Phi^{-1}## is the inverse of the Standard Normal cumulative dist function. I think the Excel name for it is something like NORMSINV.
 

FAQ: Converting R-Value to Percent Uncertainty in Linear Regression Predictions

What is the meaning of "r value" in Excel?

The "r value" in Excel refers to the correlation coefficient, which is a statistical measure that indicates the strength and direction of the relationship between two variables. In other words, it shows how closely related two sets of data are to each other.

How do I convert an r value to a percentage in Excel?

To convert an r value to a percentage in Excel, you can use the following formula: =r^2*100. This will give you the percentage of variance in one variable that can be explained by the other variable.

What is a good r value in Excel?

A good r value in Excel is typically considered to be anything above 0.7, as this indicates a strong positive correlation between the two variables. However, the interpretation of what is considered a "good" r value may vary depending on the context and field of study.

Can the r value in Excel be negative?

Yes, the r value in Excel can be negative. A negative r value indicates a negative correlation between the two variables, meaning that as one variable increases, the other decreases. This does not necessarily mean that the relationship is weak, as a strong negative correlation can still have a high r value.

How do I interpret the r value in Excel?

The r value in Excel can be interpreted as follows:
- A value close to 1 indicates a strong positive correlation
- A value close to -1 indicates a strong negative correlation
- A value close to 0 indicates a weak correlation
- The closer the value is to 0, the weaker the relationship between the two variables.
Keep in mind that correlation does not necessarily imply causation, so further analysis is needed to determine the nature of the relationship.

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