Cumulative probability continued

In summary, to calculate the probability of picking a red or green gumball from the bag, you would need to calculate the expectation value of the green and red balls in the bag based on the different percentages from each machine. After repeating the experiment many times, the average number of green and red balls can be determined and used to calculate the probability of picking either color from the bag. For example, if there are only two machines, the probability of picking a green gumball would be 0.825 and the probability of picking a red gumball would be 0.175.
  • #1
Brad_U
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cumulative probability continued...

Ok. I have 25 gumball machines with red or green gumballs. Each machine has a different percentage of each. Number 1 has 70% red, 30% green. Number 2 has 95% red, 5% green, and so on. I buy 1 gumball from each an drop it into a bag. Then reach into the bag and pull a random gumball. How to calculate probability Red or Green from the bag?
 
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  • #2


I would start calculating the expectation value of the green and red balls in the bag.

For example, if you draw one from each machine, you have on average (after repeating this experiment very very very often), (0,70 + 0,95 + ...) green balls in the bag, and (0,30 + 0,05 + ...) red ones.

Let's assume for this example that there are only two machines, so you will have 1,65 green ball and 0,35 red balls in a total of two.
If you draw one of the balls randomly, therefore, the probability of picking the green one is 1,65 / 2 = 0,825 and for the red one of course 0,175. (If you go back and check the calculation, this is basically the average of the probabilities, because we drew equal numbers of balls from each machine).
 
  • #3


Thanks for the reply.
 

FAQ: Cumulative probability continued

What is cumulative probability and how is it calculated?

Cumulative probability is the probability that a certain event will occur at least once in a series of repeated trials. It is calculated by adding up the probabilities of all the possible outcomes.

How is cumulative probability used in scientific research?

Cumulative probability is used in scientific research to analyze the likelihood of a certain outcome based on past data. It can also be used to make predictions about future events.

What is the difference between cumulative probability and individual probability?

Cumulative probability takes into account the likelihood of multiple outcomes occurring, while individual probability only considers the likelihood of a single outcome. Cumulative probability is therefore a more comprehensive measure of likelihood.

Can cumulative probability be greater than 1?

No, cumulative probability cannot be greater than 1. This would imply that the likelihood of an event occurring is greater than 100%, which is not possible.

How can cumulative probability be visualized?

Cumulative probability can be visualized using a cumulative distribution function (CDF) graph. This graph shows the cumulative probability of each possible outcome on the x-axis and the probability on the y-axis.

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