Expected number of games in a series that terminates

In summary, the expected number of games in a series between two players A and B, where A wins a game with probability p and B wins a game with probability q, is equal to X/(p-q) where X is the starting amount of money for each player. This is assuming that p > q and the series terminates when one player loses all their money.
  • #1
Tazz01
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The Question:
2 people A, B play a series of independent games. We have the following probabilities:

P(A wins a game) = p
P(B wins a game) = q = 1 - p

Both players begin with X units of money, and in each game the winner takes 1 unit from the
other player. The series terminates when either A or B loses all their money. The assumption is that p > q.

Derive the expected number of games in a series.

Attempt at a solution:
If:

Z = number of games, then we are after E[Z]:

So if the number of games is X and the series terminated, that means that either that A won all the games from the start or B won all the games from the start. e.g. For E[Z]=N

p[itex]^{X}[/itex]q[itex]^{0}[/itex] or p[itex]^{0}[/itex]q[itex]^{X}[/itex]

In order for the series to terminate, the number of wins either for A or B has to be X greater than the number of wins for the other player. e.g. If B wins 1 game, then A needs to win X+1 games in order for the series to terminate. I'm not sure whether my attempt actually helps in obtaining a solution, can anyone advise? Thanks.
 
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  • #2
I can confirm that I've solved this problem.
 

FAQ: Expected number of games in a series that terminates

1. What is the expected number of games in a series that terminates?

The expected number of games in a series that terminates is the average number of games that will be played before the series ends. It takes into account all possible outcomes and their probabilities.

2. How is the expected number of games in a series calculated?

The expected number of games in a series is calculated by multiplying the number of games in the series by the probability of each outcome and then summing those values. This takes into account the likelihood of each outcome occurring.

3. Can the expected number of games in a series change?

Yes, the expected number of games in a series can change if the probabilities of the outcomes change. For example, if a team that was expected to win a series suddenly has a lower probability of winning, the expected number of games in the series may increase.

4. What factors can affect the expected number of games in a series?

The expected number of games in a series can be affected by various factors such as the skill level of the teams/players involved, any changes in the rules or format of the series, and any external factors such as injuries or weather conditions.

5. Why is understanding the expected number of games in a series important?

Understanding the expected number of games in a series can help to make informed decisions and predictions. It can also help to manage expectations and plan for the duration of a series. Additionally, it can provide insights into the competitiveness of a series and potential outcomes.

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