Expected value question -- Probabilities when tossing two coins

In summary, the conversation discusses the calculation of how much a person should pay if they were to play a game where they toss two coins and win $10 if both coins land on heads. The book gives the answer as $2.5 while another person calculates it to be $3.333. It is then explained that this calculation is fair because if one were to play the game four times, they would expect to win once and lose three times, resulting in a total win of $10. It is also mentioned that in this type of game, the person pays to play regardless of whether they win or lose, and if they lose, they may need to pay more for any damages incurred.
  • #1
RM86Z
23
6
Summary:: checking an expected error

Given the question:

"If a person tosses two coins and gets two heads, the person wins $10.
How much should the person pay if the game is to be fair?"

The book gives the answer as $2.5 while I calculate $3.333...

E(X) = 0 = $10(1/4) - a(3/4) => a = $(10/3)

This makes sense when we consider tossing the coins four times in a row we expect to win once and lose three times so winning $10 and losing 3 x $3.333 = $10.

[Moderator's note: moved from a technical forum.]
 
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  • #2
If this is a question about "pay-to-play", then he pays to play even when he ends up winning the $10. I think that will give their answer.
 
  • #3
Yes that is true thank you very much!
 
  • #4
That said, if you win at the bookies you also get your stake back.
 
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  • #5
But if you lose at the bookies you may need to buy a new shirt on loan of course. And then make sure you pay up before you’ll need new fingers And/or other appendages.
 
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FAQ: Expected value question -- Probabilities when tossing two coins

What is the expected value when tossing two coins?

The expected value when tossing two coins is 1.5. This means that on average, you can expect to get 1.5 heads when tossing two coins.

How is the expected value calculated for tossing two coins?

The expected value is calculated by multiplying the possible outcomes (0, 1, or 2 heads) by their respective probabilities (0.25, 0.5, and 0.25) and then adding them together. So, (0 x 0.25) + (1 x 0.5) + (2 x 0.25) = 1.5.

What is the probability of getting exactly one head when tossing two coins?

The probability of getting exactly one head when tossing two coins is 0.5. This is because there are two ways to get one head (HT or TH) out of the four possible outcomes (HH, HT, TH, TT).

What is the probability of getting at least one head when tossing two coins?

The probability of getting at least one head when tossing two coins is 0.75. This is because there are three ways to get at least one head (HH, HT, TH) out of the four possible outcomes (HH, HT, TH, TT).

Can the expected value change if the coins are biased?

Yes, the expected value can change if the coins are biased. This is because the probabilities of getting heads or tails will no longer be equal, and therefore the expected value will be different. For example, if one coin is weighted to land on heads more often, the expected value will be higher than 1.5.

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