Forecasting record temperatures

  • Thread starter Loren Booda
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In summary, the conversation discusses the probability of a record temperature occurring in the Central England Temperature series in a given year, assuming random temperature fluctuations over the past 350+ years. It is suggested that the probability of a record occurring in a specific year is equal to 1 over the total number of years in the series.
  • #1
Loren Booda
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The Central England Temperature series is the longest continuous weather chronicle, reaching back to 1659. What is the probability that any particular day in 2009 sets a record temperature there, assuming only random temperature fluctuations over the 350+ years?
 
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  • #2
I'm thinking that since the temperature fluctuations are random, then the records, one from each year from 1659 through 2009, are also random and independent. So now you have a list of 351 numbers which are equally likely to be ranked in any order (since these yearly records are random and independent). What is the probability that the 351st is the largest? I think this is the probability that the record for 2009 is the "record of the records." Maybe someone else could confirm this.
 
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  • #3
In such a situation, if there are n values in a list then the probabilty that a new value is greater than any of the values already on the list is 1/n.
 

FAQ: Forecasting record temperatures

What is the purpose of forecasting record temperatures?

The purpose of forecasting record temperatures is to predict the likelihood of extreme temperatures occurring in a specific area. This can help communities and individuals prepare for heatwaves or cold snaps that could have significant impacts on health, infrastructure, and agriculture.

How is forecasting record temperatures done?

Forecasting record temperatures involves analyzing historical data, current weather patterns, and climate models to make predictions about future temperatures. This can also include using advanced technology, such as satellite imagery and computer simulations.

How accurate are record temperature forecasts?

The accuracy of record temperature forecasts can vary depending on a variety of factors, such as the location and time frame being forecasted, the quality of data and models used, and the unpredictability of weather patterns. Generally, short-term forecasts tend to be more accurate than long-term forecasts.

How can forecasting record temperatures benefit society?

Forecasting record temperatures can benefit society in several ways. It can help governments and organizations plan for extreme weather events, such as implementing heat wave or cold snap emergency protocols. It can also aid in the development of strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

What are some limitations of forecasting record temperatures?

Some limitations of forecasting record temperatures include the complexity and unpredictability of weather patterns, the potential for errors in data or models, and the difficulty in accurately predicting long-term trends. Additionally, forecasting record temperatures cannot account for other factors that may influence the weather, such as human activities or natural disasters.

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