Help needed with dependent event probablity question

  • Thread starter Incitatus89
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In summary, the poster is seeking help with calculating the chances of Player A beating Players B and C in a golf competition, given that Player A has a 70% chance of beating Player B and a 60% chance of beating Player C. The events are dependent, and the poster is looking for a method to determine the likelihood of A emerging victorious. They apologize for any confusion and acknowledge that this may require a mathematical approach.
  • #1
Incitatus89
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Dear Forumites,

First time poster so take it easy on me!

I've stubled upon a question that my pea-sized brain cannot answer. This is not uncommon for a man of my (lack of) intelligence, but it's killing me to not know the answer! Any help massively appreciated.

I have determined a basic method which predicts the chances of Player A beating Player B in golf competition. However when the competition becomes 3-way I don't know how to calculate the chances of Player A beating Players B and C given the events are dependent.

For example:

Player A beats Player B 70% of the time.
Player A beats Player C 60% of the time.

What are the chances of A emerging victorious?

Clearly the events are dependent, if A beats C than it is highly likely that he will have beaten B also. But how likely?

Sorry if this question and example is awfully worded. I could have asked it in a sports forum but this requires a math brain me thinks!

Cheers! :-)
 
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  • #2
Just realized I've probably fallen foul of the sticky. Apologies.

Mods - Please move if necessary.

Cheers.
 

FAQ: Help needed with dependent event probablity question

1. What is the definition of dependent events in probability?

Dependent events in probability refer to events that are affected by or dependent on the outcome of previous events. In other words, the probability of the second event occurring is influenced by the outcome of the first event.

2. How do you calculate the probability of dependent events?

To calculate the probability of dependent events, you need to multiply the probability of the first event by the probability of the second event given that the first event has already occurred. This can be expressed as P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B|A), where P(A) is the probability of event A and P(B|A) is the probability of event B given that A has occurred.

3. What is the difference between dependent and independent events in probability?

The main difference between dependent and independent events is that the outcome of independent events does not affect the probability of each other, while the outcome of dependent events does. In other words, the probability of an independent event is not influenced by the outcome of previous events, whereas the probability of a dependent event is.

4. Can you give an example of a dependent event?

An example of a dependent event is drawing two cards from a deck without replacement. The probability of drawing the second card is affected by the outcome of the first card. If the first card is an ace, the probability of drawing a second ace is now lower than it was before the first card was drawn.

5. What is the importance of understanding dependent events in probability?

Understanding dependent events in probability is crucial in various fields such as statistics, economics, and science. It allows us to make more accurate predictions and decisions based on the relationships between events. It also helps us understand the impact of previous events on future outcomes and can aid in risk management and decision-making processes.

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