Help understanding conditional expectation identity

In summary, the conditional expectation identity is a mathematical concept in probability theory that describes how to calculate the expected value of a random variable given certain conditions or information. It states that the conditional expectation of a random variable can be expressed in terms of another random variable, often using integrals or sums to incorporate the probability distribution. This identity is crucial for making predictions based on partial information and is widely used in statistics, finance, and various fields involving uncertainty. Understanding this identity involves grasping the concepts of expectation, conditioning, and the relationships between different random variables.
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TL;DR Summary
I'm reading a proof on conditional probabilities and there is an identity involving conditional expectation which I'm stuck on.
Let ##(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P)## be a probability space, and let us define the conditional expectation ##{\rm E}[X\mid\mathcal{G}]## for integrable random variables ##X:\Omega\to\mathbb{R}##, i.e. ##X\in L^1(P)##, and sub-sigma-algebras ##\mathcal{G}\subseteq\mathcal{F}##.

Definition 1: The conditional expectation ##{\rm E}[X\mid\mathcal{G}]## of ##X## given ##\mathcal{G}## is the random variable ##Z## having the following properties:
(i) ##Z## is integrable, i.e. ##Z\in L^1(P)##.
(ii) ##Z## is (##\mathcal{G},\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}))##-measurable.
(iii) For any ##A\in\mathcal{G}## we have $$\int_A Z\,\mathrm dP=\int_A X\,\mathrm dP.$$

Definition 2: If ##X\in L^1(P)## and ##Y:\Omega\to\mathbb{R}## is any random variable, then the conditional expectation of ##X## given ##Y## is defined as $${\rm E}[X\mid Y]:={\rm E}[X\mid\sigma(Y)],$$ where ##\sigma(Y)=\{Y^{-1}(B)\mid B\in\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R})\}## is the sigma-algebra generated by ##Y##.

If ##\mathcal{G}=\sigma(Y)##, then (iii) in definition 1 says that $${\rm E}[\mathbf{1}_A{\rm E}[X\mid Y]]={\rm E}[\mathbf{1}_AX],\quad \forall A\in\sigma(Y).\tag1$$

Now, in a proof I'm reading currently, there are three random variables ##U,S,T## and the following computation appears in the proof: $$\int_{T^{-1}(B)} U\,\mathrm dP={\rm E}[\mathbf{1}_B(T)U]={\rm E}[\mathbf{1}_B(T){\rm E}[U\mid S,T]].$$I simply do not comprehend the last equality, that is ##{\rm E}[\mathbf{1}_B(T)U]={\rm E}[\mathbf{1}_B(T){\rm E}[U\mid S,T]]##. How does this follow from the definitions above and the identity ##(1)##? I'm grateful for any help on this.
 
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I think I understand the identity in question now. First, from Durret's book, we have

If ##X## is ##\mathcal G##-measurable and ##E|Y|,E|XY|<\infty##, then $$E[XY|\mathcal{G}]=XE[Y|\mathcal{G}].$$

Second, we need the Tower property or the law of the iterated expectation, that is ##E[Y|\mathcal{H}]= E\big[E[Y\mid \mathcal G]\mid \mathcal H\big]##, where ##\mathcal H\subset\mathcal G##.

By the latter property, we have $$E[\mathbf1_B(T)U]=E[E[\mathbf1_B(T)U\mid S,T]].$$ Now, by the theorem in Durret, ##\mathbf1_B(T)=\mathbf1_{T^{-1}(B)}## is ##\sigma(T)##-measurable, and this is a subset of ##\sigma(S,T)=\sigma(\sigma(S)\cup\sigma(T))##. So we can "pull it out", and we are left with $$E[\mathbf1_B(T)U]=E[\mathbf1_B(T)E[U\mid S,T]],$$which is the desired identity.
 

FAQ: Help understanding conditional expectation identity

What is conditional expectation?

Conditional expectation is a statistical concept that represents the expected value of a random variable given that certain conditions or events are known to have occurred. It is denoted as E[X | Y], where X is the random variable and Y is the condition or event. This concept helps in understanding how the expectation of a variable changes when we have additional information.

What is the conditional expectation identity?

The conditional expectation identity states that the expected value of a random variable can be expressed in terms of its conditional expectation. Specifically, if X is a random variable and Y is another random variable or event, the identity can be written as E[X] = E[E[X | Y]]. This means that the overall expectation of X is equal to the expectation of the conditional expectation of X given Y.

Why is the conditional expectation identity important?

The conditional expectation identity is important because it allows us to break down complex problems into simpler components. It is widely used in probability theory, statistics, and various applications such as finance and machine learning. This identity helps in simplifying calculations and understanding the relationships between different random variables.

How can I compute conditional expectations?

To compute conditional expectations, you typically need to know the joint distribution of the random variables involved. You can calculate E[X | Y] by integrating or summing over the possible values of X, weighted by the conditional probability of Y. In practice, this may involve using formulas or computational tools, especially for continuous random variables.

What are some common applications of conditional expectation?

Conditional expectation has numerous applications across various fields. In finance, it is used to assess the expected returns of investments given certain market conditions. In machine learning, it is used in algorithms that involve predictions based on observed data. Additionally, it is employed in risk assessment, insurance, and other areas where decision-making under uncertainty is crucial.

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