Help with Probabilities of a Decision Tree - No Cost Between Links 3-14

[mk001]

Could someone please show me how they arrive at the probabilities attached to the branches of this nodes.
Why is there no cost between on link 3,4,5,10,11,12,13,14 --------is this correct ?

The link to this tree is below

http://www.me.utexas.edu/~jensen/ORMM/computation/unit/decision/example.html

ps iwas of the opinion that this was an lp problem

 

[EnumaElish]

Could someone please show me how they arrive at the probabilities attached to the branches of this nodes.

It looks like the prob's are inputs (data) and you are to take them as given, just like the fictional costs stated on the diagram.

 

[tacman]

Hello,

I would be happy to help explain the probabilities attached to the branches of the decision tree and why there is no cost between certain links.

First, let's start with the basics. A decision tree is a visual representation of a decision-making process, where each node represents a different decision or event, and the branches represent the possible outcomes or consequences of that decision or event. The probabilities attached to each branch represent the likelihood of that particular outcome occurring.

Now, looking at the decision tree in the link you provided, we can see that there are certain nodes where there is no cost between certain links. This means that the decision or event at that node does not incur any cost or consequence. In other words, the outcome of that decision does not affect the overall outcome of the problem.

For example, at node 3, the decision is whether to accept or reject the project. If the project is accepted, we move to node 4 where the decision is whether to launch the project or not. However, if the project is rejected, the problem ends and there is no further cost or consequence. This is why there is no cost between links 3 and 4. Similarly, at nodes 5, 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14, the decision does not have any impact on the final outcome, so there is no cost associated with those links.

I hope this helps clarify the probabilities and the lack of cost between certain links. As for whether this is an LP problem, it is not. LP (linear programming) is a mathematical optimization technique used to find the best solution to a problem with linear constraints. The decision tree in this case is used to model a decision-making process, not to optimize a solution.

I hope this helps. Please let me know if you have any further questions.