How Likely Are Unlikely Events?

[skydivephil]

I was thinking about unlikely evenst and conclude they must happen all the time. Imagine I draw a card from a deck, the odds for a particular card to come out= 1/52. Now I replace, shuffle and draw another card, the odds of the sequence of two card are =1/52*1/52 so and we can keep multiplying this by 1/52 for each card if we repeat the process:
2 card = 1/2704
3 cards =140,068
4 cards = 7,311,616
5 cards 380,204,032
6 cards =19.77 billion to one.
7 cards = 1.028 trillion to one.

Now presumably casinos are dealing thousands of cards down every day, (Maybe millions?) and so the odds of any particular sequence of cards being dealt is utterly astronimical. So one cannot sy an event cannot happen becuase its unlikely, it has to be more unliekly than any other event. Anyone disagree with this maths?

 

[dnbwise]

I don't disagree with the math, perhaps your argument isn't cogent though.

 

[zhentil]

If your aim was to disprove the notion that unlikely events can't happen, you've succeeded.

 

[SW VandeCarr]

If you could predict the future with 100% accuracy, there wouldn't be any unlikely events. There would only be certain events and impossible events.

EDIT: More precisely, certain or impossible outcomes for a given trial.

 

[blue_raver22]

I would say that you are correct in your understanding of probability and the likelihood of unlikely events occurring. In fact, the concept of probability and the mathematics behind it are fundamental to the scientific method and many fields of science.

However, it is important to note that probability does not guarantee that a certain event will or will not happen. It simply provides a measure of how likely or unlikely it is to occur. In your example, the probability of a specific sequence of cards being dealt may be extremely low, but it is still possible for that sequence to occur. This is known as the law of large numbers, which states that as the number of trials or events increases, the observed outcomes will approach the expected probability.

In addition, it is important to consider other factors that may influence the likelihood of an event, such as the skills of the dealer in shuffling the cards or the biases of the deck itself. These factors may affect the outcome and alter the probability of certain events occurring.

In conclusion, while your understanding of probability and its relationship to unlikely events is correct, it is also important to consider other factors and to remember that probability does not guarantee the outcome of any particular event.