How long until we reach Type 1, 2, & 3 civilizations?

[bd1976]

A Type I civilization would be able to manipulate truly planetary energies. They might, for example, control or modify their weather. They would have the power to manipulate planetary phenomena, such as hurricanes, which can release the energy of hundreds of hydrogen bombs. Perhaps volcanoes or even earthquakes may be altered by such a civilization.


A Type II civilization may resemble the Federation of Planets seen on the TV program Star Trek (which is capable of igniting stars and has colonized a tiny fraction of the near-by stars in the galaxy). A Type II civilization might be able to manipulate the power of solar flares.


A Type III civilization may resemble the Borg, or perhaps the Empire found in the Star Wars saga. They have colonized the galaxy itself, extracting energy from hundreds of billions of stars.


By contrast, we are a Type 0 civilization, which extracts its energy from dead plants (oil and coal). Growing at the average rate of about 3% per year, however, one may calculate that our own civilization may attain Type I status in about 100-200 years, Type II status in a few thousand years, and Type III status in about 100,000 to a million years. These time scales are insignificant when compared with the universe itself.


On this scale, one may now rank the different propulsion systems available to different types of civilizations:

Type 0
Chemical rockets
Ionic engines
Fission power
EM propulsion (rail guns)

Type I
Ram-jet fusion engines
Photonic drive

Type II
Antimatter drive
Von Neumann nano probes

Type III
Planck energy propulsion


It's encouraging to know that we will reach Type 1 within one hundred years, but how about Type 2? Michio Kaku stated that it would take several thousands of years. However, given our recent rapid developments in science and technology, I think that we will reach Type 2 status within 1,000 years.


What does everyone else thinks?

Wow. I would like to ask anyone else if they have encoutered this sort of opinion recently. Having talked to people (friends) about these sort of questions I have discovered that more often than not people harbour this sort of ridiculus optimism about the state of science today. The truth is that in the last 50 years physics has made almost no progress.. certainly nothing has been uncovered which could possibly facilitate mankind traveling to the stars!

Currently the only possible mechanism for exploration of the galaxy would be via the development of genetic technologies where a ship could fly (conventionally taking millions of years) to a planet then clone humans and establish them on the planet and then educate them. And this is an incredibly () far fetched scenario anyway. It seems so strange that many people believe that science is progressing so quickly. Where do you guys think this sort of idea originates?

 

[thomsonr]

I was searching this evening for info on Civilization type. After finding this old thread it occurred to me:

I wonder if their might be a type 4. Capable of manipulating matter on a cosmic scale of multiple galaxies. That would be GOD. Maybe type 3 would seem a good to us.

 

[Chronos]

... It seems so strange that many people believe that science is progressing so quickly ...

How does your current computer compare to an IBM 8088 [circa 1987]?

 

[selfAdjoint]

How does your current computer compare to an IBM 8088 [circa 1987]?

That's just technology - better manufacturing, essentially. When was the last time a new scientific idea made a difference in our daily lives?

 

[Curious3141]

I was searching this evening for info on Civilization type. After finding this old thread it occurred to me:

I wonder if their might be a type 4. Capable of manipulating matter on a cosmic scale of multiple galaxies. That would be GOD. Maybe type 3 would seem a good to us.

Remember the supercivilisation that Carl Sagan sketched out in Contact ? The ones that took Ellie Arroway on a grand tour and told her of the collective project they were undertaking, engineering galaxies, etc. That would be a Type IV civilisation by your reckoning. And the ones that created the wormhole transports and left a message in Pi would be an even higher type - Type V ?

 

[Sempiternity]

I'm a bit confused from all of this. Have many of you read Michio Kaku's explanations in Hyperspace and Parallel Worlds?

In Parallel Worlds, Michio Kaku explains that physicists sometimes use these classifications in correlation to a civilization's energy consumption and the laws of thermodynamics.

A Type I civilization is classified as a civilization which can harness planetary forms of energy, especially that "they are able to utilize the entire amount of solar energy striking their planet, or 10^16 watts."

A Type II civilization is classified as a civilization which has exhausted the energy attainable on their planet and has therefore moved on to harnessing and extracting the energy produced from their star. "They are able to consume the entire energy output of their star and might conceivably control solar flares and ignite other stars." From there, they may also utilize other planets in their solar system as power sources.

A Type III civilization is classified as a civilization which has exhausted the attainable energy from their solar system and has therefore moved on to extracting energy from farther reaches of their galaxy, including extraction from many stars and solar systems.

Concerning timetables:

Although the gap separating these civilizations may seem astronomical, it is possible to estimate the time it might take to achieve a type II civilization. Assume that a civilization grows at a modest rate of 2 to 3 percent in its energy output per year. (This is a plausible assumption, since economic growth, which can be reasonable calculated, is directly related to energy consumption. The larger the economy, the greater its energy demands. Since the growth of the gross domestic product, or GDP, of many nations lies within 1 to 2 percent per year, we can expect its energy consumption to grow at roughly the same rate.)

Of course, this rate stated here may oscillate depending on many factors, including politics, wars, terrorism, etc. But such an estimation can be made from tracked records of growth. And if nothing deviates from this path, it may be reasonable to assume this steady progression will continue.

Michio Kaku describes our current civilization as a Type 0.7 civilization since we are not yet a planetary civilization. We are still relying on dead plants and animals as the primary source of energy for our daily activities. Though, there are certainly signs of us growing into a more planetary culture, which will usher into the new era of actually harnessing the planet's available energy resources (solar energy, hydrogen fuel, wind, nuclear reactions, etc). Michio Kaku lists several key elements of this developing unitary planet.

*The Internet is an emerging type I telephone system...
*The language of our type I society will probably be English...
*Nations, although they will exist in some form for centuries to come, will become less important, as trade barriers fall and the world becomes more economically interdependent... No single nation is powerful enough to stop this march to a type I civilization.

Michio Kaku continues with more examples of how this planetary culture is already evolving before our eyes, then goes to further describe each type of civilization in further detail of how they may operate. (Do remember that predictions of the future are not completely speculative, but are based on physical and economic principles. Although predicting things in the far-off future is certainly far-flung, there are restrictions on what any civilization can do and what they cannot do despite any sort of advance they may muster. Timetables are more or less set alongside cultural development, which includes the growth of the economy and political barriers.)

From there, Michio Kaku goes to explain what a Type IV civilization might be in terms of energy consumption. He speculates that:

If a type IV civilization could exist, its energy source might be extragalactic, such as the dark energy we see around us, which makes up 73 percent of the matter/energy content of the universe...

But by the laws of physics, it is still conceivable that an advanced type III civilization, having exhausted the power of the stars in the galaxy, may somehow try to tap into this energy to make the transition to type IV.

Furthermore, Dr. Kaku also explains some refinements to this classification system. One is based on information processing efficiency, while another, by Carl Sagan, is based on a civilization's information content, with a scale from A to Z.

A type A civilization, for example, is one that processes 10^6 bits of information. This would correspond to a primitive civilization without a written language but with a spoken language...

Once a written language is discovered, the total information content rapidly explodes...

Sagan estimated our present-day information content. By estimating the number of books contained in all the libraries of the world (measured in the tens of millions) and the number of pages there are on each book, he came up with about 10^13 bits of information. If we include photographs, this might rise to 10^15 bits. This would place us as a type H civilization. Given our low energy and information output, we can be classified as a type 0.7 H civilization.

Also, Michio Kaku explains what a "photonic drive" is in Visions:

A design called the photonic engine is basically a powerful laser which uses light pressure to propel itself into space.

Currently the only possible mechanism for exploration of the galaxy

Only possible mechanism? There are many mechanisms that have been proposed in relation to colonization of space, such as using nano bots with encoded information to spread to planets, terraform the planet, then fuse elements and facilities to instigate cell replication and human growth. Cryogenics and suspended animation is another option. Manipulating gravity to use hyperdrives or warp drives (they are different things) would work. There's also speculation of manipulating probabilities with an "Infinite Improbability Drive" like in the famed Heart of Gold starship in The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy.

In the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, the bestselling irreverent, wacky science fiction novel by Douglas Adams, the hero stumbles upon a most ingenious method of traveling to the stars. Instead of using wormholes, hyperdrives, or dimensional portals to travel between galaxies, he conceives of harnessing the uncertainty principle to dart across the vastness of intergalactic space. If we can somehow control the probability of certain improbable events, then anything, including faster-than-light travel, and even time travel, is possible.

When was the last time a new scientific idea made a difference in our daily lives?

That depends on what you mean by "new". The Internet is relatively "new" and has had an enormous impact on people's daily lives. High-speed internet "new" and is starting to increasingly impact the way the internet works. (Webmasters aren't as afraid to display large data amounts since http://livescience.com/technology/ap_050707_broadband_use.html .) There are certainly new ideas in the works which will greatly impact how people work in the future. Quantum computers, fiber optics, nanomachines, biometrics, stem-cell research, renewable energy, commercial space travel, and much more will greatly impact society in decades to come.

 

[Demodocus]

I think that the classification of I, II, and III is a good method, but the certian technologies that have been attached to each of these classifications are, for lack of a better word "BS".

Reasons--

1)They are simply more advanced forms of technology we have today. If you asked someone during WW1 what was the future of aviation, they probably would of predicted massive fleets of blimps, not supersonic aircraft. How is that different today?

2)Adding the times in which these things will happen is not a good idea either, because small events, or catastrophic events could greatly change the course of human history. If, say, an asteroid hit next year, it could take many years for our culture to get back to developing new technologies.

3)It's all just to darn confusing. I'm no prophet, and I doubt anyone could even predict what the world would be like 10 or even 5 years from now. I mean, nobody really forsaw the internet being so big. Just read the novel 2001.

Of course, I'm no master of theoretical physics either. I read Michio Kaku's book when I was in 6th grade, so I don't completely remember it all. Now, I should read it again with a year more experience.

 

[Demodocus]

Basically, "expect the unexpected". (Which sort of means to expect the expected) :P

 

[Gaijin]

I was searching this evening for info on Civilization type. After finding this old thread it occurred to me:

I wonder if their might be a type 4. Capable of manipulating matter on a cosmic scale of multiple galaxies. That would be GOD. Maybe type 3 would seem a good to us.

LOL that reminds me of a story by Issac Asimov called "The Last Question"

look it up on google and read it

 

[Cladson]

wouldn't that be terrible if we got harvested what have you. By a type III civilization

 

[WhiteWolf]

I don't see how 100% of the solar energy can be harvested in a type I or II cilvilization. Effieceny can never be that high, and if the energy from the sun was harvested even remotely close to 100%, the other planets would become so cold they would be inhabitable. I think before we harvested energy from the sun to that degree, we would have already terrafromed other planets in our solar system and be inhabiting them. I would think geothermal would be more of a prudent power source in the future. Not now, mind you, because3 geothermal is no financially prudent for any country other then Iceland . But i think it would be near inexhaustable, considering it is fueled by iron and gravity, both of which are plenty abundant.

 

[Gir]

Wow. I would like to ask anyone else if they have encoutered this sort of opinion recently. Having talked to people (friends) about these sort of questions I have discovered that more often than not people harbour this sort of ridiculus optimism about the state of science today. The truth is that in the last 50 years physics has made almost no progress.. certainly nothing has been uncovered which could possibly facilitate mankind traveling to the stars!

Currently the only possible mechanism for exploration of the galaxy would be via the development of genetic technologies where a ship could fly (conventionally taking millions of years) to a planet then clone humans and establish them on the planet and then educate them. And this is an incredibly () far fetched scenario anyway. It seems so strange that many people believe that science is progressing so quickly. Where do you guys think this sort of idea originates?

it's funny how physics is in it's infancy and people who think they know something have absolutly no idea what they're talking about. in the last 50 years you say? 50 years isn't even a drop in the bucket. it seems like a long time compared to our short lives but 50 years is nothing.

besides, ALOT HAS happened in the last 50 years and with this post you've showen your lack of understanding of any of it.

and sending a ship off to clone people makes no sense at all since 1, the planet we would be sending these people to might have no chance of supporting life and 2 even if it did, what would be the point in sending people all that way if there was no way they could ever contact us again?

 

[Gir]

wouldn't that be terrible if we got harvested what have you. By a type III civilization

if it makes you feel any better, it wouldn't do us any good to fight back. even if we advance to type 1 we wouldn't stand a chance against a type 3.

fortunatly it wouldn't make much sense to travel the massive distances just to start a fight with a civilization you could wipe out without even breaking a sweat. :)

 

[Gir]

I don't see how 100% of the solar energy can be harvested in a type I or II cilvilization. Effieceny can never be that high, and if the energy from the sun was harvested even remotely close to 100%, the other planets would become so cold they would be inhabitable. I think before we harvested energy from the sun to that degree, we would have already terrafromed other planets in our solar system and be inhabiting them. I would think geothermal would be more of a prudent power source in the future. Not now, mind you, because3 geothermal is no financially prudent for any country other then Iceland . But i think it would be near inexhaustable, considering it is fueled by iron and gravity, both of which are plenty abundant.

well you just described a type one more or less. there is only one planet that I know of which there's even a slight possiblity that we will terraform. the only other possiblities are moons around planets we may, once the sun is exausted, turn into new stars in order to get more energy.

at type 2 much more energy is required just to keep things running, remember that civilization types are determend by energy need\consumption. the planets not getting sunlight wouldn't matter, even if we lived on them we would have plenty of energy to keep them going without sunlight.

now I am no scientist, but before we ever make it to type 1 we're going to have to realize that the distructive power of whatever new power soruce we end up using should not be used as a weapon. knowing the power of a nuke, imagine what we could do with something that could generate 10,000 times that energy output. scary thought when you realize any sorce of energy can be used as a weapon.