How to convince someone of statistical probibilities

  • Thread starter Pengwuino
  • Start date
  • Tags
    Statistical
In summary, the conversation discussed the differences in statistics for accidents between cars and small airplanes. The speaker argued that the statistic should be based on miles traveled, while their father believed it should be based on the number of times the engine is started. The speaker also mentioned that accidents for planes are more likely to occur during takeoffs and landings, while for cars, longer trips pose a greater risk. The conversation ended with a discussion on how to convince someone that their statistical basis is correct.
  • #1
Pengwuino
Gold Member
5,123
20
Ok I am having a really annoying time with my father here. Now statistically, you are much more likely to get in an accident in a car then in a small airplane per mile traveled. Now my father thinks that its better to say that its more dangerous to have a small airplane since you are more likely to get in an accident based on the number of times you start your engine.

Now i say, the statistic should be based on miles, he says on startup and I'm almost positive my statistic is the correct basis since people's accidents occur while driving and not when they start-up their car. Extrapolate the idea out and someone who drives 100000 in one trip has a faaaaaaaaaaaaar larger chance of getting in an accident then someone who turns his car on once and drives across the street and back.

Now i want to really verify that my statistical basis is correct... and if it is, how can you convince someone that you are right.

This may be more reasonably put in the GD section.
 
Mathematics news on Phys.org
  • #2
the number of planes that will crash will depend on the number of times the engine has started, by the nature of their crashes (AFAIK, a longer trip does not imply a greater risk, since the plane would have a problem due to something else, ie mechanical failure when starting).
For cars, however, it is the opposite; a longer trip brings a greater risk.

If you compare them using only the statistics from the miles travelled, then you don't take into account the fact that the planes' accidents do not depend on the number of miles travelled, but rather on the number of flights.
 
  • #3
Yah but the fact it has a problem is the thing. When it has a problem, there's a possibility of a crash (thus, an accident).
 
  • #4
Think takeoffs and landings! :)

People who want to convince you that flying is safe use the "passenger-mile" model. Exposure time (time in transit) and number of trips (takeoffs and landings) are also valid measures but the airlines and FAA don't want to alarm people. I don't think there is a strict "right or wrong" on this issue.
 

FAQ: How to convince someone of statistical probibilities

How do you explain statistical probabilities in simple terms?

Statistical probabilities are the likelihood or chance that a certain event will occur. It is based on data and calculations, and can be used to make predictions or draw conclusions. For example, if there is a 70% chance of rain tomorrow, it means that out of 100 days with similar weather conditions, it is likely to rain on 70 of those days.

How can you convince someone that statistical probabilities are reliable?

Statistical probabilities are reliable because they are based on data and calculations. The larger the sample size and the more accurate the data, the more reliable the probabilities will be. In addition, statistical probabilities take into account random variations and can be used to make predictions with a certain level of confidence.

What is the difference between correlation and causation in statistical probabilities?

Correlation is when two variables are related or connected in some way, but it does not necessarily mean that one causes the other. Causation, on the other hand, refers to a direct cause-and-effect relationship between two variables. Statistical probabilities can show correlation between variables, but further research is needed to determine causation.

How do you address skepticism towards statistical probabilities?

Skepticism towards statistical probabilities can be addressed by providing clear and accurate data, explaining the methods and assumptions used in the calculations, and acknowledging any limitations or uncertainties. It is also important to emphasize that statistical probabilities are not absolute truths, but rather useful tools for making informed decisions.

Can statistical probabilities be manipulated or biased?

Yes, statistical probabilities can be manipulated or biased if the data used is inaccurate or if the calculations are done incorrectly. It is important to use reliable and unbiased data and to properly conduct statistical analyses to avoid any manipulation or bias. Additionally, being aware of any potential biases or limitations in the data can help in interpreting the results correctly.

Similar threads

Back
Top