- #36
DrStupid
- 2,167
- 502
frostysh said:1) Years, it is too much of time.
That’s your opinion. I’m not in a hurry.
frostysh said:The more pathogens, the more peoples infected, the more time spent - the more probability that Virus will be detected.
That doesn’t matter as long as nobody knows that the viruses are pathogens. And how should somebody know it if they almost ever cause no symptoms?
frostysh said:3) Can you give 100% guarantee that there is no fully isolated personal of IC on the planet exist?
There is currently no known technology for full self-sustaining habitats and I’m not going to discuss conspiracy theories.
frostysh said:Any Biological agent […] can be easily countered by even a simple Chemical Suite.
Not if you are already infected.
frostysh said:The Nature can take effect on the pathogens, pathogens can evolve in unpredictable manner (there is no zero probability for that), it is icreasing the chances for detection.
Something like this is very unlikely and would be considered as what it actually is: a natural mutation of an apparently harmless virus or bacterium. In the worst case pandemic plans will be activated for this particular mutant. And even if somebody is paranoid enough to isolate people who have been tested negative for this species, they would take some of the other pathogens into the shelter.
frostysh said:In addition, the above mentioned natural resistance can play it's role, and from a 1 billion of exterminated IC will be just 1 survivor with immunity, and the end.
If the mortality is known for each pathogen it is quite easy to estimate the expected number of survivors. If it appears to be too high – no problem: The risk of failure decreases exponentially with the number of different pathogens. That makes an acceptable cost/benefit ratio from the view of the aggressor.
frostysh said:In addition the incubation period can take different time in different peoples, for an example in larva of IC population, and in old IC population it can take shorter time, it's drasitcally increasing the chance of detection.
Yes, there are individual variations of the incubation periods but they are not unpredictable. Nobody will have suspicions if early symptoms will be limited to isolated cases.
frostysh said:After the detection, governments of IC just and another lot amount of peoples will be immediately isolated
That will be too late. And even if some people can be isolated in time, they are just safe for weeks or maybe months only. It is currently and in the foreseeable future not possible to shelter many people for years or even decades (Did I mention that I do not talk about conspiracy theories?) and that is not sufficient if the pathogens can outlive as spores or in natural reservoirs. The survivors will need to return into the hostile environment.
I hate to disillusion you, but we currently would have no chance to survive such an aggression. Even a natural pandemic, with a single pathogen which has not been designed to kill humans as effective as possible, could terminate mankind as we know it – not as a species but as a technical civilization. Advanced bioweapons would be much more devastating. We just need to hope that nobody is both willing and able to create something like that.