- #1
shoshuban
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Captain Ahab sails The Laertes along the south coast of Madeira. On any day, the probability of him seeing a dolphin is 9/10 , the probability of him seeing a whale is 2/3 and the probability of him seeing a turtle is 1/5.
Q. Calculate the probability that on any day Captain Ahab will see either a dolphin or a whale.
The answer, according to the mark scheme, is 29/30.
Weirdly, if we add the three probabilities, it shows a value more than 1 ! ( 9/10 + 2/3 + 1/5 = 53/30 ! )
I have tried doing this. Trial 1 :
P( dolphin or whale) = 9/10 + 2/3 = 47/30, which is obviously not correct.
Trial 2:
P [(dolphin and no whale) or (whale and no dolphin)]
= (9/10 x 1/3) + ( 2/3 x 1/10 ) = 11/30 ( which doesn't agree with the mark scheme )
The methods shown in the mark scheme is :
Method 1 -> ( 9/10 x 1/3 ) + 2/3 = 29/30.
Method 2 -> 1-(1/10 x 1/3) = 29/30
Please explain me what's happening here.
1) Why is the total probability more than one in the first place
2) how do the mark scheme methods make sense?
3) What was I doing wrong in my Trial 2?
Q. Calculate the probability that on any day Captain Ahab will see either a dolphin or a whale.
The answer, according to the mark scheme, is 29/30.
Weirdly, if we add the three probabilities, it shows a value more than 1 ! ( 9/10 + 2/3 + 1/5 = 53/30 ! )
I have tried doing this. Trial 1 :
P( dolphin or whale) = 9/10 + 2/3 = 47/30, which is obviously not correct.
Trial 2:
P [(dolphin and no whale) or (whale and no dolphin)]
= (9/10 x 1/3) + ( 2/3 x 1/10 ) = 11/30 ( which doesn't agree with the mark scheme )
The methods shown in the mark scheme is :
Method 1 -> ( 9/10 x 1/3 ) + 2/3 = 29/30.
Method 2 -> 1-(1/10 x 1/3) = 29/30
Please explain me what's happening here.
1) Why is the total probability more than one in the first place
2) how do the mark scheme methods make sense?
3) What was I doing wrong in my Trial 2?