Industrial Event Takt Times (production cycle times) and Probability

In summary, the conversation discusses the distribution of time for an event and how it may not follow a normal distribution. The question of what models would be appropriate for a time distribution is also raised, and it is suggested that a gamma distribution may be suitable. The issue of the mean and most probable time being close but still about a second apart is also mentioned, along with the impact this has on the study. The idea of plotting and posting the distribution is also mentioned.
  • #1
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Background:

I am a Mechanical Engineer working as an Industrial Engineer. I have collected some data that is the amount of time that an event took to complete. I first assumed it would be normally distributed, but after plotting a histogram and a normal distribution with the data, I doubt that the set follows a normal distribution. So let's do a little thought experiment.

What is the probability of the event taking from -2 to 0 second? I would say it would be zero.
What is the probability of the event taking taking from negative infinity to zero seconds? I would say it would be zero.

So I think it is save to say that the domain of the distribution is from 0 to infinity.

Question:

What are some models tailored for time distribution? I would say a time distribution should have a domain that goes from 0 to infinity.
 
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  • #2
There are several approaches to this problem, but when the mean is more than a couple standard deviations above zero, there are occasions when the normal distribution still works well even though the values really can only be positive.
 
  • #3
Yeah the mean and the most probable time are close by looking at the histogram vs the normal distribution, but still about a second or so, which is actually a big issue for this study. We perform a lot of these evenst which last about 8 seconds. So 1 second is about 15% of the total time. I am about 2 to 3 STD from zero. I should plot it and post it. It starts off very close to zero for about 6 sec. Then sharp peak about 7 seconds and a slower decline to zero.
 

Related to Industrial Event Takt Times (production cycle times) and Probability

1. What is an industrial event takt time?

An industrial event takt time is the average time it takes for a production cycle to be completed, including all necessary tasks and events within that cycle. It is often used as a measure of efficiency in manufacturing processes.

2. How is industrial event takt time calculated?

Industrial event takt time is calculated by dividing the total production time by the number of units produced within that time period. This provides a measure of the average time it takes to produce one unit of a product.

3. What is the significance of industrial event takt times in production?

Industrial event takt times are important because they provide a benchmark for measuring and improving production efficiency. By analyzing takt times, companies can identify areas of inefficiency and make adjustments to optimize their processes.

4. How can probability be used in relation to industrial event takt times?

Probability can be used to predict the likelihood of a production cycle being completed within a certain takt time. This can help companies plan and schedule their production processes more accurately.

5. Can industrial event takt times be improved?

Yes, industrial event takt times can be improved through various methods such as streamlining processes, reducing waste, and implementing more efficient technologies. Continuous improvement efforts can help companies achieve shorter takt times and increase their overall productivity.

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