Is the World really headed for another Dark Age?

[russ_watters]

We nearly lost the US, and even the global financial system. It appears that we may have averted disaster with the bailout, but we don't really know yet.

So you're saying it was almost a disaster? Almost a disaster isn't a disaster. I've pointed this out to you before.

What do you use as a news source?

All news sources are pretty much the same at this point. Our differencecs in perspective are summed up perfectly by what you just said. You don't differentiate between things that could happen and things that did.

Now to some extent we're simply talking about differen things. You can say you're in a "crisis" (a word often used here) if there is the potential, for something bad to happen. But that's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about comparing bad things that actually happened. And that's fine in some cases, but not here...

Going a step further, your method of comparison is flawed, but I think you like it because the flaws lend themselves well to irrational thought and you primarily approach this situation based on irrational fear - it permeates most of your posts on the economic crisis. But in particular, the flaws are:

1. There is no list anywhere of crashes that almost happened, so there is no way for you to compare the risk of collapse today with other crashes that didn't happen.
2. You're comparing things that didn't happen with things that did and putting them on equal footing with each other. But anyone who has been in a car crash will tell you that "almost died" is a heluva lot better than "died".
3. Similar to above, your method is biased toward the present. It is based on fear and predictions about potential that wear off with time. The further back you go, the less you can remember how much fear people had and the less information is available about it.
4. Your method isn't logically consistent, but assuming you even wanted it to be, you'd have to consider the possibility of a crisis that was almost averted. The economy was very shaky last year, but until September, it didn't really crash. A few more months of weathering the storm and it might never have.
5. Your method is based on assuming the absolute worst case is the most likely outcome of the crash that didn't happen. That plane that crashed on the Hudson was almost a disaster and could have killed everyone on board, which is how the media reports it, but the reality is that in situations like that, they almost never do.
6. Similar to above, when pressed for a real prediction, an good scholar will try to predict exactly how bad it could have been, but the fact of the matter is that it is still just a prediction.
7. Besides the method itself being flawed, in this case, you are basing your opinion on a very limited amount of information.

 

[Phrak]

Interesting, but I don't think the decline of Rome can solely be attributed to lead pipes ... did you know, however, that Czar Ivan the Terrible's homicidal mood swings were probably caused by mercury poisoning? Ivan sufferred from terrible arthritis, and many of the drugs prescribed to him were full of mercury. Now this potentially changed the course of a nation: if Ivan hadn't been mercury poisoned he may not have killed his son, so Russia would not have entered the Time of Troubles, so there would be no Romanov dynasty, so there may not have been any Russian Revolution, no USSR ... but this is getting too speculative.

Not too speculative. The present is... more influenced by the influential, than the not-so influential.

Re: Rome. Not lead pipes, or course, but lead cooking vessels. You've got to get that lead into digestible form. Plain water is too neutral.

The Romans citizens also deviated from the winning, and time honored tradition of conquering and bleeding new subjugate states, leaving that businesses to mercenaries of conquered provinces, while discovering the good life, supported by a slave population that far outnumbered the citizens. (Four to one, wasn't it?) Enchantment with the status quo declined. The Roman citizens, as they partied on, were outnumbered. They were conquered by those they conquered. Kinda like what's happening in France, Britain, and the US.

 

[mheslep]

I must have missed the part about the government bailing out the big investment banks during the 70's.

It isn't going to be doomsday but there isn't going to be a payday for a lot of people for a long time.

Chrysler?

The money going to the banks are loans and is coming back w/ interest as we speak. The money spent on the stimulus bill, the homeowners bailout bill, and the new bloated budget is not coming back.

 

[mheslep]

Well life expectancies on average have increased, but one can find pockets in the south and places like the Appalacian mountains and Indian reservations where it really hasn't risen that much.

If 'much' is at least 50% and the period is a century or so, then I doubt that's true in any pocket, anywhere in the US, regardless of how remote.

 

[kyleb]

While this continues to be a hot topic of debate among historians, the Roman Empire 'fell' for many reasons. (I put qoutes around fell because Rome really didn't collapse overnight- even well into the 1000's, many of its institutions still existed. To be precise, Rome experienced a decline, sometimes gradual, sometimes quickly, as when Rome's last emperor was overthrown by a barbarian army). Some reasons outlined in Cullen Murphy's interesting book Are We Rome? (which compares America to Rome) include government corruption, overexpansion of empire, decline of military, and said barbarian problems. Furthermore, late Rome was often plagued by emperors who seized power by force ad only lasted on average for several months. Also, another problem that Rome faced in its decline was runaway inflation (sound familiar?) and other economic problems. There are, however, some more loopy theories about Rome's decline, including lead poisoning caused by the use of lead pipes, gradual loss of the mental faculties of the aristocracy due to generations and generations of incest, male infertility due to hot baths, etc.

I have long been familiar with all of this, and I hope you might reconsider my position with that in mind.

 

[Zdenka]

Did Rome really fall or did it actually pave the way for the western powers which dominates the world today.

 

[Astronuc]

Did Rome really fall or did it actually pave the way for the western powers which dominates the world today.

I think one has to look at what elements of Rome survived and were assumed by the barbarian successors, namely the Church and educational institutions.

 

[Burnsys]

We had a kind of situation here in Argentine in 2001.
The economic crisis was so bad that people rioted in almos every city (including me ),
The police killed 25 people during the riots, and we had 5 presidents in 2 months!
I don't think any economic crisis could turn the people so violent as to overthrow an entire government and install anarchy, The weapons are in the hand of those in control (The state) And finally those who has the guns has the power.
Worst case scenario is a Police State / Dictatorship, not he other way.

 

[mheslep]

Did Rome really fall or did it actually pave the way for the western powers which dominates the world today.

Administratively one could say the western empire fell with the 410AD sack of Rome by the Visigoths, and the eastern (Constantinople) fell in either 1204 w/ the sack by the Crusaders or by 1453AD, the final defeat by the Ottomans. If we date the start of Roman civilization to the founding of the republic in 509BC, and count continued influenced until 1453AD, that gives them a two thousand year run.

 

[Jacob Perry]

Wow, it just hit me how goofy and pointless these systems of society are. How should I start this? I'll do this in the form of a question that I know I will probably be misunderstood over but... what is the point of owning land? There is obviously enough for everyone. Another thing proving the pointlessness would be money... whos idea was it to create such a thing? School, a requirement if you want to be fortunate enough to be healthy a.k.a not be poor. The problem is they teach you a bunch of stuff that shouldn't even matter. College, if they really wanted everyone to be educated and contribute to the world, wouldn't they just teach for that reason and not for a coins and paper? Government, the ultimate liar and holder of secrets that they are afraid to expose for whatever reason. Keep in mind I'm talking about every country not just America. Engaging in war, perhaps the stupidest thing of all, the religion/belief induced battles.


The root of all evil is not actually money, but rather people's lust for power and their greed. Perhaps competition among people has influenced this stupidity. People, from what I know, want to know everything and are just as nosy as cats.

That was pretty bias of me to say I admit because if we had an anarchy it would be total disorder because of the same reasons of war, beliefs. Plus other reasons such as jealousy, desire, wanting to be the best.

It will be interesting to see the response of everyone on what I just said.

That seemed kind of off topic, probably should have put it in philosophy but, it needed to be said.

 

[Zdenka]

If we date the start of Roman civilization to the founding of the republic in 509BC, and count continued influenced until 1453AD, that gives them a two thousand year run.

That's about 3000 years less than the Greeks, a western civilization, which is arguably the longest continuous civilization in Mankind's history, and probably contributed to the modern world as much as Rome did.

 

[Niles]

That's about 3000 years less than the Greeks, a western civilization, which is arguably the longest continuous civilization in Mankind's history, and probably contributed to the modern world as much as Rome did.

I guess that it the same for Persia/Iran (although not the "western"-part, but middle-east).

 

[mheslep]

That's about 3000 years less than the Greeks, a western civilization, which is arguably the longest continuous civilization in Mankind's history, and probably contributed to the modern world as much as Rome did.

3000? How do you get past the Battle of Corinth? Other than the language, modern Greeks has about as much in common with ancient Greeks as the modern Italians have with ancient Rome.

 

[Zdenka]

I think the Greeks today have obviously modernized over their ancient counterparts. I mean today we all use computers but back then, there were other methods of calculating.

 

[Vanadium 50]

3000? How do you get past the Battle of Corinth?

Or the Dorian invasion a millennium earlier.

 

[The riddler]

The recession and all that maybe quite bad but i think you would need something a lot bigger than a recession to send us back to the dark ages, if the govermental system changed due to the recession then maybe, but this would take some time. Besides you can get out of a if you put in charge the right people. For example during the great depression Germany was definately the one country that got hit worst. The country was litrally in ruins. Inflation rose so high that between 1918 and November 1923, a loaf of bread which had previously cost two thirds of a mark (German currency) had risen to cost 201 billion marks!

I do not agree with the Nazi's views but you got to admit that to go from that to taking over most of europe within a few shorts years is very impressive. If i were incharge and i had to stop/recover from the recession i would learn from history and copy how the Germany regained its economic stance (Aslong as it's fair).