"Iterating" to show stationarity? - Help

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In summary, the statement is solving for the stationary solution of an autoregressive (AR) model by recursively substituting in the equation for $X_{t+1}$ and $Z_{t+1}$ until reaching the limit $X_{t+k+1}$, and then rearranging the equation. This is done to find the unique stationary solution of the AR(1) model.
  • #1
nacho-man
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I am not sure what is being done here, but I keep seeing statements like

Given $X_t - \phi X_{t-1} = Z_t$ $...(1)$

then
$$X_t = -\phi^{-1}Z_{t+1} + \phi^{-1}X_{t+1}$$
$$ = ... $$
$$= -\phi^{-1}Z_{t+1} - ... - -\phi^{-k-1}Z_{t+k+1}+\phi^{-1-k}X_{t+k+1}$$

What is going on here? What is the purpose of this?

If it helps, the concluding argument is that
$X_t = - \sum_{j=1}^{\infty} \phi^{-j}Z_{t+j}$ is the unique stationary solution of $(1)$

If I haven't provided enough information, let me know, and
I will also write out what the previous page says. I just can't figure out how they are equating those values in the first few steps, and what the relevance of it is. We start off with an AR(1) model, and soon they let it equal an AR(K) model... but how?
 
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  • #2
It looks like this statement is solving for the stationary solution of an autoregressive (AR) model. An AR model is a type of time series model that describes the relationship between the current value of a variable and its past values. In this case, the equation $(1)$ is describing an AR(1) model, with $X_t$ being the current value of the variable, $\phi$ being a coefficient, $X_{t-1}$ being the previous value, and $Z_t$ being a random disturbance term.The statement is then using the equation to solve for the unique stationary solution of the AR(1) model. The stationary solution is the value of $X_t$ that remains consistent over time. To solve for it, the statement is recursively substituting in the equation for $X_{t+1}$ and $Z_{t+1}$ until it reaches the limit $X_{t+k+1}$, which is the stationary solution. The statement is then rearranging the equation to get the desired result. In conclusion, the statement is solving for the unique stationary solution of an AR(1) model by recursively substituting in the equation for $X_{t+1}$ and $Z_{t+1}$.
 

FAQ: "Iterating" to show stationarity? - Help

What is the definition of "iterating" to show stationarity?

"Iterating" to show stationarity refers to the process of repeatedly applying a mathematical operation to a time series data in order to transform it into a stationary series. This is done to make the data more suitable for statistical analysis and modeling.

How do you determine the number of iterations needed to achieve stationarity?

The number of iterations needed to achieve stationarity can be determined by visually inspecting the data for any patterns or trends that are still present after each iteration. The goal is to continue iterating until the data appears to be stationary, meaning it has constant mean and variance over time.

What are the potential risks of over-iterating in the process of achieving stationarity?

Over-iterating can potentially lead to overfitting the data, meaning the model will perform well on the training data but poorly on new data. It can also introduce artificial patterns and trends in the data, which can result in inaccurate and misleading conclusions.

Are there any alternative methods to achieve stationarity besides iterating?

Yes, there are alternative methods such as differencing, detrending, and transformation. These methods involve making adjustments to the data to remove any trends or patterns, which can also result in a stationary series.

How do you know if your data is stationary after iterating?

You can use statistical tests such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test or the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test to determine if your data is stationary after iterating. These tests compare the mean and variance of the data before and after iteration to determine if there is a significant difference.

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