Need Some Mathematical Guidance Regarding Random Variables

In summary: He is using a computer program to generate random numbers from two independent distributions and wants to determine the probability that the first distribution will be less than the second. He has been working on this for a week and would appreciate any guidance or assistance. In summary, Josh needs to integrate the joint probability distribution function for the two distributions and then evaluate the integral to find the probability that the first distribution is less than the second. For example, for exponential distributions, the probability is equal to the ratio of the first distribution's parameter over the sum of the two distributions' parameters.
  • #1
joshthekid
46
1
This is not a homework question but I project I am working on and need someone with more mathematical prowess than myself. I am using a computer program to draw random numbers from two independent distributions, x1 and x2, for two different cases and I want to establish a theoretical mathematical relationship for the probability that x1 will be less then x2. The first case is two different exponential distributions, i.e. exp(-αx), and the second from a power law, x^(-β), over a limited range a to b. I have been working on this for about a week so any help or guidance would be much appreciated. Thanks

Josh
 
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  • #2
What you need to do is write down the joint probability distribution function. This is a function ##p_{X,Y}## in variables x and y such that for any region A, ##\iint_A p_{X,Y} = P((X, Y) \in A)##.

Because your random variables are independent, ##p_{X,Y}(x,y) = p_X(x)p_Y(y)##, where ##p_X## and ##p_Y## are the pdfs of your individual random variables.

Then you just integrate over the region A that is the set of points where X < Y, and you have P(X < Y).

I'll do the exponential distribution as an example. ##p_X(x) = \alpha e^{-\alpha x}##, and ##p_Y(y) = \beta e^{-\beta y}##. So the joint pdf is ##p_{X,Y}(x,y) = \alpha \beta e^{-\alpha x - \beta y}##. Now you integrate:

##P(X < Y) = \int_0^\infty \int_0^y \alpha \beta e^{-\alpha x - \beta y}\,dx\,dy = \alpha \beta \int_0^\infty e^{-\beta y} {1 - e^{-\alpha y}\over \alpha}\,dy = 1 - {\beta \over \alpha + \beta} = {\alpha \over \alpha + \beta}.##

So that's the answer.
 
  • #3
thanks Eigenperson!

Josh
 
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