New tesla sedan from 49k, thoughts?

[Cyrus]

Yep, Cyrus. I've been there, I've done that. I wasted my money on a petty status symbol, then watched as it fell to insignificance in only a few years. The 350Z, the RX8... so many new cars came out in the few years after I purchased the S2000 that pretty soon, no one cared anymore anyway. I realized the friends I had made through car clubs were really just acquaintances who had made the same bad decision I had made. I realized that the only people who were really impressed by my car were high-school boys. I probably would have chased the automotive industry's dangling carrot and put myself into debt to buy another, newer, flashier car, but I happened to discover cycling. That was the antidote that cured me of the irrational disease of American car culture.

- Warren

I don't know - I enjoy driving. I wouldn't mind having a nice sunday driver to take out on the weekends and go for a nice cruise. I would have a daily driver like my honda accord or a toyota camry, but also something for fun on satruday or sunday. Actually, I'd like to build a kit car like an Ultima GTR or an old Shelby.

 

[mgb_phys]

but I happened to discover cycling. That was the antidote that cured me of the irrational disease of American car culture.- Warren

And led you to the even less rational dark side of cycling culture!

From a recent conversation with Mrs mgb.
her>How many bikes do you have?
me>Well the road bike, the folder, the nice mountain bike and the scrappy winter commuter mountain bike.
her>and you want another, what's so special about it?
me>it's fixed wheel - it doesn't have any gears and you can't freewheel
her>and it costs twice as much as a bike with gears ?
me>erm yes.
her>So why do you want one?
me>cos I really want a recumbent but didn't think you would go for that!

 

[chroot]

And led you to the even less rational dark side of cycling culture!

I know you're just joking, but, really, the most expensive bikes in the world (those ridden in the Tour de France, for example), run about $10k. Few people own road bikes that cost more than $5k. You can have a whole stable of fantastic bikes, each optimized for some particular situation, for a fraction of the average cost of one new car -- and they'll all collectively take up less space, too.

- Warren

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I don't know - I enjoy driving. I wouldn't mind having a nice sunday driver to take out on the weekends and go for a nice cruise. I would have a daily driver like my honda accord or a toyota camry, but also something for fun on satruday or sunday. Actually, I'd like to build a kit car like an Ultima GTR or an old Shelby.

As I got older, I realized that there is nothing that I can do with a hot car that wouldn't eventually land me in jail or a grave. When I had a car that could go 150 mph, guess how fast I went at times? That was the whole point of having the car!

I can honestly claim that I have never bought anything as a status symbol. I just like to go reeeeeeally fast.

IMO, cycling will never be a viable option to autos unless we have no choice. While there are those who like or want to ride, most people don't and it isn't a practical option. While living in LA I tried riding my bike to college for a time, but after a few close calls I gave it up. It was far too dangerous. I also started having problems with my knees. When one factors in things like health problems, age, weather, road conditions, distance, cargo needs, to name a few, it seems to me that bikes are nothing but a novelty as a transportation option.

Considering that GM stock hit a dollar today, I have serious doubts that we will ever see the Volt. And even if we do, who wants a $35,000 Corolla? That's pretty much what you would get. It will never be more than a novelty at that price and it could be the final nail in the coffin for GM. The best prospect so far is the plug-in hybrid from China's BYD [partly owned by Warren Buffet], which outperforms the Volt and promises to be much less expensive. Edit: Of course, it probably doesn't even come close to passing US safety standards.

While U.S. automakers struggle to survive after the Senate rejected a bailout for Detroit, one company from China may be showing a way forward for the industry. On Dec. 15, BYD Auto got a jump on General Motors (GM), Toyota (TM), and Nissan (NSANY) by introducing in its home town of Shenzhen the first mass-produced plug-in hybrid, the F3 DM. BYD's new car, with a $22,000 price tag, can run for up to 60 miles on a battery charged from an ordinary electricity outlet...

http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/dec2008/gb20081215_913780.htm?chan=autos_autos+--+lifestyle+subindex+page_top+stories

While plug-ins will have their place, I think alternative fuels will win the day for everything but small, local commuter vehicles. Among the alternative fuel options, algae-based fuels seem to be the most promising.
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=211274

Note that the city of Venice, Italy, claims that it will be producing 50% of its electrical power from algae, in about two years.

Oh yes, as for the $49K what are youmacallit, pblackt. Let's see how they sell. And call me when we have a cost effective and environmentally friendly battery recycling program.

 

[WhoWee]

Tesla is a luxury exotic, not meant to save the world. Buy a Zap car at $12k for the bare bones. And its 10 years, 4000 charges for the batteries in the upcoming Chevy Volt.


light passenger: 29.48 avg miles per day, 4.37 avg miles per trip. That's roughly %25 of US oil usage. PS I used to bike 25 mi/day before family expansion.

One of the reasons car companies are in trouble is because $35,000+ (including $50,000 concept) vehicle price tags are unrealistic for production cars. The $12k Zap...like the original VW...makes more sense.

WhoWee's crystal ball predicts:

The first EV manufacturer that offers an adult vehicle with a $10,000 price tag that
1.) is dependable and remains operative for 100,000 plus miles,
2.) travels farther than 300 miles without re-charging,
3.) has an average speed capability in excess of 45 mph and 65 mph max,
4.) offers minimum accessories and comfort,
5.) looks at least as good as a VW/Pinto/Escort/Spectrum/MiniCooper/FiatX-19/Renault/(not with the features of rotten fruit or a decaying animal?)
6.) is produced at a profit level that allows the manufacturer to produce an adequate return on investment (to attract private capital),
7.) sets the standard for batteries that are easily replaced with minimum labor in a few minutes (and affordable price)...maybe using existing gas station locations,
8.) designs a low investment dealer package supported with strong training and support

will dominate the North American market.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

When considering the viability of alternative technologies, it is interesting to know the total cost of fuel over the life of a typical vehicle.

If we assume a life of 200,000 miles, 45mpg, and $3 a gallon, we expect to pay about $13K for fuel over the life of the vehicle.

A Honda Civic Diesel claims 45 mpg in combined city and highway tests.
http://www.mpgomatic.com/honda_civic_diesel.html

Someone should check that I used the right numbers, but it looks to me like these sell in GB for about $22.5K US.
http://www.arnoldclark.com/detail.html?ac_reg=blk_vlcu8kt82ko15oez

So if we buy this honda diesel, we expect to pay a combined price of $22.5 for the car [US dollars] and $13K for the fuel, giving a lifetime cost of about $36K, plus maintenance. At that price, at best we can only purchase a Volt. Note that algae-based biodiesel is a primary focus for the emerging algae-energy industry. Note also that we only need one standard automotive battery for the vehicle. They are talking about 60mpg for diesel hybrids [not plug-ins].

 

[Cyrus]

When considering the viability of alternative technologies, it is interesting to know the total cost of fuel over the life of a typical vehicle.

If we assume a life of 200,000 miles, 45mpg, and $3 a gallon, we expect to pay about $13K for fuel over the life of the vehicle.

A Honda Civic Diesel claims 45 mpg in combined city and highway tests.
http://www.mpgomatic.com/honda_civic_diesel.html

Someone should check that I used the right numbers, but it looks to me like these sell in GB for about $22.5K US.
http://www.arnoldclark.com/detail.html?ac_reg=blk_vlcu8kt82ko15oez

So if we buy this honda diesel, we expect to pay a combined price of $22.5 for the car [US dollars] and $13K for the fuel, giving a lifetime cost of about $36K, plus maintenance. At that price, at best we can only purchase a Volt. Note that algae-based biodiesel is a primary focus for the emerging algae-energy industry. Note also that we only need one battery for the vehicle. They are talking about 60mpg for diesel hybrids [not plug-ins].

Man, those are some skewed numbers. I promise you as a driver of a Honda Accord, you need to factor in the price of such things as transmission, distributor cap, spark plugs, wires. But don't include things common to both (like brakes). Those cancel out. Don't forget oil changes. Transmission flushes.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Man, those are some skewed numbers. I promise you as a driver of a Honda Accord, you need to factor in the price of such things as transmission, distributor cap, spark plugs, wires. But don't include things common to both (like brakes). Those cancel out. Don't forget oil changes. Transmission flushes.

Diesels don't use distributor caps, plugs, or plug wires. Maybe you had a bad experience, but Honda has an outstanding record of reliability. Also, you don't think the Volt will have maintenance needs? How much do you want to bet that there will be at least one and probably several very expensive components that are prone to failure.

They are not skewed numbers. It sounds like you know very little about it.

 

[Cyrus]

Diesels don't use distributor caps, plugs, or plug wires. Maybe you had a bad experience, but Honda has an outstanding record of reliability. Also, you don't think the Volt will have maintenance needs?

They are not skewed numbers. It sounds like you know very little about it.

I just said, take out common things to both. I.e., they both need maintenance for common parts like brakes and brake pads. The civic, due to having more moving parts, will require stuff the electric wont. You don't change oil in an electric.

Honda screwed up on my xmsn because it has a recall.

 

[Ian_Brooks]

We don't need better cars, we need fewer cars.

The auto industry has spent an entire century slowly forcing people to become dependent on automobiles and perpetually in debt. They've done this by systematically defeating public transportation projects and by designing and marketing their cars primarily as status symbols. Tesla Motors is just more of the same -- flashy, costly, pointless landfill fodder that no one really needs. One of the most intelligent decisions you could possibly make is to simply check out of this idiotic system and use a more functional, practical, and reasonable mode of transportation whenever it is available to you.

- Warren

I was hoping a college education set me up in a financially better position than not having one. Why else fork out all the money, sweat and tears behind a piece of paper that has the word engineering on it? I was hoping the fruits of my labor equaled a house, a family and a car - and something meaningful to dedicate 8hrs a day, 5x a week for the next 40 years or so.

Even if owning a luxury car is buying into a false system of status - I've always wanted one ever since I was kid. Picking the cleaner alternative was icing on the cake.

Yep, Cyrus. I've been there, I've done that. I wasted my money on a petty status symbol, then watched as it fell to insignificance in only a few years. The 350Z, the RX8... so many new cars came out in the few years after I purchased the S2000 that pretty soon, no one cared anymore anyway. I realized the friends I had made through car clubs were really just acquaintances who had made the same bad decision I had made. I realized that the only people who were really impressed by my car were high-school boys. I probably would have chased the automotive industry's dangling carrot and put myself into debt to buy another, newer, flashier car, but I happened to discover cycling. That was the antidote that cured me of the irrational disease of American car culture.

- Warren

damn,

i see where you're coming from.

Well I'm in college with a 20k debt right now. I was looking at a second hand civic as a first car - and can only dream if I ever make enough to buy a luxry car. But if I can, and its affordable at the time - I'd like the alternative that doesn't look awful. Frankly the problem with Hybrids today are its looks. Finnally we have one cheaper than most, in the low end of the luxry car bracket and looks incredible. Again college kids can dream too, can't they?

 

[chroot]

I know I'm derailing the thread, but... I think college kids should be dreaming about the day that they have enough money that the bank begins paying them for their patronage, not the day they can finally afford the payment on a loan for a car they can't really afford.

People in this country have been programmed to think that affording the payments is the same as affording the item. The banks want you to believe that, because it'll keep you perpetually in debt, perpetually paying them some form of interest, until the day you die.

90% of the new cars sold in this country are financed; you should dreaming of the day when you can be in the other 10%.

- Warren

 

[WhoWee]

I know I'm derailing the thread, but... I think college kids should be dreaming about the day that they have enough money that the bank begins paying them for their patronage, not the day they can finally afford the payment on a loan for a car they can't really afford.

People in this country have been programmed to think that affording the payments is the same as affording the item. The banks want you to believe that, because it'll keep you perpetually in debt, perpetually paying them some form of interest, until the day you die.

90% of the new cars sold in this country are financed; you should dreaming of the day when you can be in the other 10%.

- Warren

I agree...worse yet is leasing. Think about how many people have used equity as a lease down payment.