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takeTwo
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mheslep said:Well good luck to them, but given NIF has not fired the first full power shot at a live target yet, and the efficiency of the lasers and optics, I can't see such a claim as anything but the loosest of hand waving.
(I know this is a tiny bit off the original question, but I sense a bit of doubt towards the potential of "traditional" approaches to fusion in this thread. Fusion is a passion of mine (along with lasers) so I offer my learning, thoughts and opinions to the Physics Forum regarding what seems to be a truly historical moment coming within the next year).
Correct. "Full power" and "live target"; not together (yet). There are good reasons for this. (a) The laser is still being commissioned and this is going well. They are shooting targets with almost 0.9 MJ at 1/3 micron wavelength. They will be close to 1.2-1.4 MJ very soon. 1.8 MJ is the design energy, but this must be approached slowly. The source and type of damage to the optics is an active topic or research at NIF as it was for Livermore's 60 year history. (b) The fact that they are in a startup phase (doing physics experiments to understand what will happen, not attempting world records for neutrons) and people will have to access the target chamber, they are purposely keeping all hazards to a minimum. For example, the hohlraum (the "container" for the x-rays that actually implode the pellet) is gold rather than depleted uranium. The outer shell of the pellet (the rocket) is plastic doped with Ge rather than Be. A weak DD mix in the fuel is used for diagnostics rather than full-on DT, etc.
Nevertheless, the x-rays in the hohlraum that implode the capsule have a "radiation temperature" of nearly 290 eV now (a pleasant surprise, by the way) and they expect >300 eV with the higher laser-drive energy. This will cause the capsule to implode with sufficient velocity to achieve the high compression ratio (initial fuel radius over final fuel radius) of their design and thus a sufficiently high density of the assembled fuel.
If the converging shock waves in the core of the imploded pellet are timed correctly, then they expect a "spark" of fusion at the center. The density of the assemble fuel is sufficient to absorb some of the energy from the fusion alphas, further heating the fuel and, hopefully, achieve "scientific breakeven"; more fusion energy out than laser power in. The expected "target gain" of about 10 should occur in the next 6 months or so, even with the non-ideal (technician-friendly) fuel capsules and hohlraums and without the full 1.8 MJ (1.2 may be enough).
So where is the hand waving? Of course any press release on this project is glossing over potential problems. I would ask, can they get the shocks to converge and produce the spark? How can they know the density of the assembled fuel? Will the optics allow for a 30% increase in fluence?
But I'm an optimist. These folks at LLNL have never oversold themselves (unlike magnetic fusion) because (I believe) that the physics is relatively more tractable in ICF. The possibility that NIF will achieve breakeven (scientific, that is) at less-than-all-out conditions is a result of the 60 years of research (closer to 30 years if we start with Shiva) on the same damn thing. This can't be said for tokamaks. There, the physics seems to change from machine to machine in a way. With aspect ratio, with heating method, with field geometry, etc.
As far as efficiency and high rep rate goes, this is not going unnoticed. The efficiency of NIF-scale lasers can be improved 10-50 times. The Europeans are working on a concept called HiPER to put all the pieces together for a demonstration ICF plant with "engineering breakeven"; enough electrical power produced to run the facility while still supplying power to the grid. See the video at http://physicsworld.com/blog/2009/12/laser_fusion_gets_hiperactive.html