Oil from genetically-modified organisms

[mheslep]

This kind of technology could be adapted to trucks, tractors, construction equipment, military vehicles, rail.

We are not even close.

Rail has been hybrid electric for decades:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_train#Diesel-electric
Diesel-electric is highly efficient. It was instituted early on in locomotives in part because they could afford the the weight of lead acid batteries.

 

[turbo]

Today my wife and I had to make a very long trip to the nearest Subaru dealer to have a "check engine" alert decoded - simple fix, but the gas to get there and back was brutal. On the way home, we passed a huge bus/RV towing a full-sized SUV. Both vehicles had CA plates, and even if those people hadn't taken lots of side-trips and drove a pretty direct route, I'd imagine that their trip was at least 4000 miles each way. At the current 4.98/gal for diesel that's probably a minimum of $10,000 for the fuel for a round-trip. I guess if you can plunk down a few hundred thou for the motorized house, fuel costs are insignificant, but still... I-95 southbound was absolutely clogged with tourists going home after the 4th of July weekend, so people are still taking vacation trips even with the high gas prices.

 

[Ouabache]

There are two Mainiacs on that page with solar-recharged electric tractors. I don't know where Howe lives, but Heckentroth lives about 40 minutes from here, right in the heart of MOGFA country. The Maine Organic Growers and Farmers Association is a very pro-active group dedicated to sustainable farming practices and conservation of all types of resources. They host the Common-Ground agricultural fair every year.

I like that.. They sound like my kind of people!

I-95 southbound was absolutely clogged with tourists going home after the 4th of July weekend, so people are still taking vacation trips even with the high gas prices.

I traveled 450mi (roundtrip), over the 4th to visit friends, camp out and play some music. I'm certainly not pleased with current fuel prices. However, my old car still gets 35mpg, so even at current fuel prices, can justify an occasional holiday trip. A friend of mind who drives the same distance and normally takes his humungous RV, opted to drive his van & pitch a tent this year. So fuel prices are definitely impacting travelers this summer (though perhaps not that fellow you saw with the CA plates )

 

[chemisttree]

Of course the advantage of the GM E. Coli is the chance that they will escape and populate our gut. The human race would thereafter have severe GI distress and oily diarrhea.

My money is on the algae...

 

[DaveC426913]

Of course the advantage of the GM E. Coli is the chance that they will escape and populate our gut. The human race would thereafter have severe GI distress and oily diarrhea.

This is an advantage? I'd hate to see what you consider the downside.

 

[turbo]

This is an advantage? I'd hate to see what you consider the downside.

That's a huge advantage if you're heavily invested in Kimberly-Clark (Depends).

 

[Ouabache]

Of course the advantage of the GM E. Coli is the chance that they will escape and populate our gut. The human race would thereafter have severe GI distress and oily diarrhea.

I sure hope we get this all sorted out before attempting to terraform a dead planet. (introducing GM organisms to accelerate production of a suitable atmosphere, is felt to be a key step in terraforming a dead planet, such as Mars, within a practical timeframe).

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Rail has been hybrid electric for decades:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_train#Diesel-electric
Diesel-electric is highly efficient. It was instituted early on in locomotives in part because they could afford the the weight of lead acid batteries.

Yes, note the diesel power. Not the same problem.

 

[turbo]

Diesel-electric has been used for many years for heavy equipment other than rail, too. 30 years ago, the wood-yard at the pulp mill I worked at used huge diesel-electric tractors with hydraulic grapples to unload pulp trucks. Having each wheel individually driven by variable-speed electric motors made those monsters quite nimble, so the operators could manage some really delicate maneuvers.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

The point is that systems are not designed to be all electric - the battery reserve is virtually nill. They keep the diesel engines running for power.

 

[turbo]

I know that. The diesel powers a generator and the electric power is distributed to the individual motors driving the wheels. They consumed large amounts of fuel. The electric drive was for precision and fine control - not for any perceived advantage in efficiency.

 

[mheslep]

The upcoming 'Plug-ins' are all hybrids too - gasoline (or diesel) hybrid electric. The term plug-in usually means there's enough battery in there to run short trips solely on electric power, and those trips are the largest share of transportation energy use (see chart)
http://www.autobloggreen.com/media/2008/02/power-and-speed.jpg

http://gm-volt.com/chevy-volt-faqs/

Q: What is the driving range of the Chevy Volt?
A: The car is being designed to drive at least 40 miles on pure electricity stored in the battery from overnight home charging. After that the gas engine will kick in and allow the car to be driven up to 400 miles on a full tank (6-7 gallons) of gas.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

The upcoming 'Plug-ins' are all hybrids too - gasoline (or diesel) hybrid electric. The term plug-in usually means there's enough battery in there to run short trips solely on electric power, and those trips are the largest share of transportation energy use (see chart)
http://www.autobloggreen.com/media/2008/02/power-and-speed.jpg

http://gm-volt.com/chevy-volt-faqs/

There will be a percentage of the population that can use these in all electric mode, but not everyone can. What about air conditioning in bumper to bumper traffic and 100 degree weather? What about parents who drive a car full of kids? What about contractors and others who need trucks? These sorts of people might fall within the mileage spec, but it would not be possible to drive on all electric.

And as has been pointed out in other threads, this does not include commercial transportation, which uses diesel and gasoline, nor does it include rail, nor shipping, nor air transportation. And for that which can be displaced, the grid is already in trouble with huge new demands coming online everyday. We will be lucky to keep up with demands on the grid without huge additional demands for electric cars. What's more, the cradle to grave efficiency of hybrids is not yet known, and lead-acid batteries are an assault on the environment.

Today, a report came out that shows that even with the price of fuel today, hybrids are not the most economical cars to drive. I will post it when it becomes available.

Energy markets are driven by price, and hybrids do not even make economic sense at this time. It is still cheaper to pay for the fuel than it is the additional price of hybrid technology.

I remember Joanna Kerns - the actress who played the mother on the TV sit-com Growing Pains - talking about her date with Ed Begley Jr., who drove an electric car. She said that it was the worst date she had ever been on. They parked and ran the radio, which depleted the batteries, leaving them stranded.

 

[mheslep]

...For example, if you wanted to replace the energy from fossil fuels using wind powered generators, you would have to build one state-of-the-art turbine, every two square miles, over the entire US.

Wind farm power is much denser than one turbine per two square miles so it would take much less land, not that it would make sense to replace all fossil by wind alone, nor do I think it best or feasible to run all US transportation by electricity alone in the near future.

Details:
Wind farm density rule of thumb is 5MW/km^2 [1], 40000MW-hrs/yr/km^2 installed nameplate capacity, or 7400km^2 of wind farm per BTU Quad. In the US 16 Quads of fossil go to transportation, to replace that takes, say, 1/3 of the area of New Mexico, and 1.8 "New Mexico's" to replace all 80 quads of US fossil[2]. Wind averages ~30% capacity, but then wind direct to electric power eliminates the ~25-40% efficient fossil power plant or IC engine heat cycle.

[1] 5MW/km^2 - NREL number, see for example "Arizona Wind Energy Assesment"
http://ses.nau.edu/wind/YavapaiCtyAZWind%20EnergyPotential4-10-07.pdf
[2]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_use_in_the_United_States

 

[mheslep]

There will be a percentage of the population that can use these in all electric mode, but not everyone can. What about air conditioning in bumper to bumper traffic and 100 degree weather? What about parents who drive a car full of kids? What about contractors and others who need trucks? These sorts of people might fall within the mileage spec, but it would not be possible to drive on all electric.

And as has been pointed out in other threads, this does not include commercial transportation, which uses diesel and gasoline, nor does it include rail, nor shipping, nor air transportation.

Agreed. I don't see any serious proposals to run transportation on all electric (yet), so bring on the biodiesel. The point is energy use for short distance driving by light vehicles is a _large_ part of US transportation fuel costs, greater than any of the others. That's why NREL/ DoE estimates plug in hybrids would cut US transportation fuel use by almost half, and if the electricity is produced by nuclear or renewables or sequestered coal then CO2 production is cut similarly[1].

And for that which can be displaced, the grid is already in trouble with huge new demands coming online everyday. We will be lucky to keep up with demands on the grid without huge additional demands for electric cars.

No as discussed here and in NREL reports there is plenty of excess grid capacity for charging PHEVs (5 to 15kWhrs) at night when the demand is otherwise low. Growing a renewable source like wind power will require substantial transmission capacity increase, but that is independent of the PHEVs.

What's more, the cradle to grave efficiency of hybrids is not yet known

Good point. This needs more attention.

and lead-acid batteries are an assault on the environment.

Non-issue. Nobody has plans to use lead acid batteries for PHEVs, the energy density is too low. Lithium Ion batteries do not use heavy metals (the environmental threat) though they need a recycling plan just like everything else these days.

Today, a report came out that shows that even with the price of fuel today, hybrids are not the most economical cars to drive. I will post it when it becomes available.

Will be interesting to see but note: 1) we're talking here about 100 mpg equivalent PHEVs not just the current HEVs and PHEVs are a year away, 2) to be relevant to the context of this thread, the comparison needs to be against the cost of algae biodiesel or cellulosic ethanol per gallon

Edit: source
[1] Preliminary Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles ..., table 3
www.nrel.gov/docs/fy06osti/39729.pdf

 

[mheslep]

...What about air conditioning in bumper to bumper traffic and 100 degree weather? ...

This is where the EV has some perhaps unexpected advantages so I'm adding more here: An IC engine runs at it near its worst efficiency sitting at idle where as the PHEV drive train just shuts off. (Its actually a bit weird the 1st time one experiences this out on the highway in the current HEVs. "Shoot! My engine died. Nevermind"). So the ICE is producing a lot of heat that it has to dispose of at idle, running the radiator fan hard, etc, all of this working against the goal of cooling the passenger compartment. Then the compressor must be supplied mechanical power by the 30% efficient ICE, again more heat to toss. In the PHEV case a 90% efficient motor is used. Last, I read somewhere the compressor installed in big SUVs is large enough to cool an entire house in summer in Georgia, a product of cheap gasoline no doubt, and something that some better insulation and IR blocking glass could address.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

No as discussed here and in NREL reports there is plenty of excess grid capacity for charging PHEVs (5 to 15kWhrs) at night when the demand is otherwise low.

In that case you must reduce the range of electric vehicles by half - we drive to and from work. This also ignores the new loads, such as desalination, which will also try to compete for off-hours power.

Also, it isn't just air conditioning, which would drastically reduce the range of all electric operation. We also need heaters. So with that, you probably cut your range in half again for a good part of the nation, for much of the year.

Non-issue. Nobody has plans to use lead acid batteries for PHEVs, the energy density is too low. Lithium Ion batteries do not use heavy metals (the environmental threat) though they need a recycling plan just like everything else these days.

How many times have we covered this? Li ion batteries are too expensive, which is precisely why McCain is calling for a better battery. In fact the all electric cars that you talk about are using lead-acid. You can't defend as an option, technology that we don't yet have.

Will be interesting to see but note: 1) we're talking here about 100 mpg equivalent PHEVs not just the current HEVs and PHEVs are a year away, 2) to be relevant to the context of this thread, the comparison needs to be against the cost of algae biodiesel or cellulosic ethanol per gallon

Edit: source
[1] Preliminary Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles ..., table 3
www.nrel.gov/docs/fy06osti/39729.pdf

Anyway, here is the report that I was talking about.

When consumers think about cars that will save them money, hybrids are typically top of mind because of their fuel efficiency," said Jesse Toprak, Edmunds.com Executive Director of Industry Analysis. "But when you take a look at the real-world costs of car ownership, you realize that many subcompact and compact cars are actually a much better value proposition."

http://www.edmunds.com/help/about/press/127806/article.html

 

[Ivan Seeking]

As for motivations, likewise, I am not against electric cars, or hybrids, of PV, or any viable option for power, but the point that I have been trying to make is that we can't diversify, drill, battery power, or bicycle our way out of the oil crisis. Too much of our society depends on the energy stored in petroleum, so we must find an option to petro for trucks, planes, trains, ships, as well as many if not most personal and commercial vehicles.

If we find an option for all of that, and we must if we want our way of life to continue, then we won't need electric cars. We could still use them for other reasons, but we wouldn't need to for the sake of the energy. So, although there are options that can help along the way, we must find a viable option to oil, and we must do it very soon. If we don't, the rest may well be moot. My hope is that algae is that option, as it appears to be. But I certainly support investigations into all possible options.

Did you hear the statement today by one OPEC leader who said that problems in the ME, such as a war with Iran, could drive the price of oil to virtually unlimited heights?

VIENNA — The head of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries warned on Thursday that oil prices would experience an “unlimited” increase in the event of a military conflict involving Iran because the group’s members would be unable to make up the lost production.

“We really cannot replace Iran’s production — it’s not feasible to replace it,” Abdalla Salem el-Badri, the OPEC secretary general, said in an interview. [continued]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/11/business/worldbusiness/11opec.html

As I think I mentioned earlier, I've heard similar statements. One estimate suggested that one attack on an oil tanker could drive crude to $250 a barrel [perhaps $7-$8 a gallon for gas, and over $8 for diesel], virtually overnight, because of the cost of insurance.

 

[mheslep]

Just in case we are off track regards technology I'm discussing: it is not light HEVs like the Prius, it is not all electrics like the Tesla, though both these successfully demonstrate aspects of EV technology; rather it is the forthcoming Plugin Hybrid EVs like the Volt which I suggest have what it takes to make a serious reduction in imported oil. The PHEV has a 20 to 60 mi all electric range, has E motors directly driving the traction system with both batteries and a combustion engine spinning a generator.

In that case you must reduce the range of electric vehicles by half - we drive to and from work. This also ignores the new loads, such as desalination, which will also try to compete for off-hours power.

16kWhrs of charge is enough to drive 40 miles all at once or in as many pieces as you like, and that covers the average commute both ways.

Also, it isn't just air conditioning, which would drastically reduce the range of all electric operation. We also need heaters. So with that, you probably cut your range in half again for a good part of the nation, for much of the year.

Its not half. The tractive power dwarfs the passenger heating/cooling loads. How much heat do you want? I expect a passenger heating system needs comfortably 1500W average? Pull 1.5kWh (10%) from the batteries, or pull it from the wasted heat (15%) of the E drive system averaging 22kW at 60mph. I know of at least one design that does the latter.

How many times have we covered this? Li ion batteries are too expensive, which is precisely why McCain is calling for a better battery. In fact the all electric cars that you talk about are using lead-acid. You can't defend as an option, technology that we don't yet have.

?? Again I am not talking about all electric cars, the only one I've discussed is the Tesla which is Li ion. All the forthcoming PHEVs are using Li Ion - that's the majors including Chevy and Toyota and the 5 or 6 startup companies I referenced here
https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=1721692&postcount=62

The cost of Li ion was $450/kWh in 2007, more after packaging it for a vehicle.
http://spectrum.ieee.org/sep07/5490/3
So 16kWh of batteries cost perhaps $10k for a PHEV. Throw in the E motor, eliminate transmission, axles, differential and some other mechanicals, balance the whole against the fuel savings and obviously several manufacturers believe PHEVs are economically viable.

Thanks for Edmunds, I'll take a look later.

 

[rewebster]

there was a guy from some 'rocky mountain institute' or something that mentioned algae oil on Charlie Rose last night

 

[mheslep]

there was a guy from some 'rocky mountain institute' or something that mentioned algae oil on Charlie Rose last night

Amory Lovins, founder of RMI, has been on Rose before. Looks like he's a regular now.
2006:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4569577556800822039
I saw a comment on Lovins from a scientist working in the energy field: "Lovins is half genius and half snake oil salesman" or the like.

Yesterday:
http://www.charlierose.com/shows/2008/07/15/2/a-conversation-with-amory-lovins
Notable:
Rose: "a lot of people predict to me that 18 months from now one of the big three [US auto makers] won't be here"
Lovins: "At least one"

Rose: "Biofuels. Have they lost their attractiveness ..."
Lovins: "Corn ethanol has had its successes and was a way to get started but I don't think anyone believes it should be the mainstay of a large scale biofuel program, and we ought to be making biofuels out of stuff that neither we nor animals can eat. Now, I understand than when you make corn ethanol you also make a bunch of byproducts that livestock can eat. But, it makes a lot more sense, and we'll make more money as the technology matures to make biofuels out of woody weedy stuff ... switch grass, wood waste and so on. And it turns out that if you have the 3x efficiency cars and trucks and planes that we should have anyway, have terrific economics, uncompromised performance and better safety, then you can make enough biofuel without using any crop land, and, without interfering in anyway with food production and without interfering in irrigation. If you try however to make a biofuels program to run todays inefficient fleets then you have all kinds of problems."