Optimizing Expected Cost for Traveling to an Appointment

In summary, the problem is to determine the optimal time to depart for an appointment given a cost function that takes into account being early or late. The travel time is a continuous random variable and the cost function is determined by the number of minutes before or after the appointment. To find the optimal departure time, the expected value of the cost function should be taken into account.
  • #1
twoski
181
2

Homework Statement



Suppose that if you are s minutes early for an appointment, then you incur cost s * $3,
while if you are s minutes late, you incur cost s * $5. Suppose the travel time from your
present location and the location of the appointment is a continuous random variable with
pdf f(x) such that f(x) = (1/10)e-x/10 if x ≥ 0 and f(x) = 0 if x < 0. How many minutes before your appointment should you depart in order to minimize your expected cost?


The Attempt at a Solution



So i want to find E[X] and then the variance i assume...

[itex]E[X] = \int_{0}^{∞} x( 1/10e^{-x/10})[/itex]

But if i evaluate this I'm going to get either 0 or infinity... So should this just be an indefinite integral?
 
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  • #2
twoski said:

Homework Statement



Suppose that if you are s minutes early for an appointment, then you incur cost s * $3,
while if you are s minutes late, you incur cost s * $5. Suppose the travel time from your
present location and the location of the appointment is a continuous random variable with
pdf f(x) such that f(x) = (1/10)e-x/10 if x ≥ 0 and f(x) = 0 if x < 0. How many minutes before your appointment should you depart in order to minimize your expected cost?

The Attempt at a Solution



So i want to find E[X] and then the variance i assume...

[itex]E[X] = \int_{0}^{∞} x( 1/10e^{-x/10})[/itex]

But if i evaluate this I'm going to get either 0 or infinity... So should this just be an indefinite integral?

Computing EX has nothing to do with the problem. You want to look at expected COST, which will depend on when you leave. Write a formula for the cost function, given that you leave m minutes before your appointment and the trip takes x minutes. Then take the expected value of that cost function.
 
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FAQ: Optimizing Expected Cost for Traveling to an Appointment

1. What is the expected value in a word problem?

The expected value in a word problem is the average outcome that is predicted to occur over a large number of trials. It is calculated by multiplying each possible outcome by its probability of occurring and then adding all of these values together.

2. How is expected value used in decision making?

Expected value is used in decision making to determine the most rational choice among several options. The option with the highest expected value is considered the most advantageous choice.

3. Can expected value be negative?

Yes, expected value can be negative. This means that the outcome is more likely to result in a loss rather than a gain. It is important to consider both positive and negative expected values when making decisions.

4. What is the difference between expected value and actual value?

Expected value is a predicted average outcome, while actual value is the specific outcome that occurs in a single trial. Actual value can vary from the expected value, especially in cases where there is a small number of trials.

5. How is expected value used in probability and statistics?

Expected value is a key concept in probability and statistics, as it helps to determine the likelihood of an event occurring and the potential outcomes. It is used to make predictions and analyze data in various fields such as finance, economics, and game theory.

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