Population bottleneck 900K years ago

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Paper behind a paywall, but new genetic technique indicates our ancestors dropped to around 1,000 individuals

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq7487

Editor’s summary​

Today, there are more than 8 billion human beings on the planet. We dominate Earth’s landscapes, and our activities are driving large numbers of other species to extinction. Had a researcher looked at the world sometime between 800,000 and 900,000 years ago, however, the picture would have been quite different. Hu et al. used a newly developed coalescent model to predict past human population sizes from more than 3000 present-day human genomes (see the Perspective by Ashton and Stringer). The model detected a reduction in the population size of our ancestors from about 100,000 to about 1000 individuals, which persisted for about 100,000 years. The decline appears to have coincided with both major climate change and subsequent speciation events. —Sacha Vignieri

Abstract​

Population size history is essential for studying human evolution. However, ancient population size history during the Pleistocene is notoriously difficult to unravel. In this study, we developed a fast infinitesimal time coalescent process (FitCoal) to circumvent this difficulty and calculated the composite likelihood for present-day human genomic sequences of 3154 individuals. Results showed that human ancestors went through a severe population bottleneck with about 1280 breeding individuals between around 930,000 and 813,000 years ago. The bottleneck lasted for about 117,000 years and brought human ancestors close to extinction. This bottleneck is congruent with a substantial chronological gap in the available African and Eurasian fossil record. Our results provide new insights into our ancestry and suggest a coincident speciation event.
 
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BWV said:
1000 individuals
I wonder what the uncertainties are on that number, or would that number be a lower bound.

I would be cautious about making estimates or models based on 'found' fossil records. The absence of fossils doesn't necessarily mean humanoids didn't exist in some other area. After listening to discussions of the last 2000 - 3000 years, and the periodic annihilation of populations, who didn't leave skeletal remains, I would expect from 800k years ago, a lot went missing (got recycled by scavengers).
 
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Astronuc said:
I wonder what the uncertainties are on that number, or would that number be a lower bound.
As I understand it from the description in Arstechnica, this number (about 1300) is the approximate number of individuals that contributed genetically to the population in a way that is reflected to our lineage today. Or, in other words, if you trace the ancestors of any human today back in time, it will eventually contain a subset of only those 1300 individuals. At least, that is how I understand it.

The accuracy of this number seems mostly to be determined by the accuracy of this new analysis model of which my understanding is very hazy. It is, again as I understand it, a new member of a family of models that look at the statistical variations of the genes in a population over time, but where older similar models see "no signal" around 900K this model apparently does.
 
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if this is accurate, it’s hard to parse - the natural disasters don’t line up, Toba - the largest eruption of the last 25M years, was ~70K years ago and that population bottleneck theory has fallen out of favor. There was another VEI 8 Toba eruption around that time and also this impact event ,. 1 MYA had a homo erectus population spread out across Eurasia, so hard to picture a widespread extinction. The analysis cannot really estimate the total population, just the population of individuals that are ancestors of living humans - it could be that this coincides with a smaller group that spread through superior technology and did not interbreed with existing populations during the period in question
 
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There have been 10 glacial-interglacial cycles in the last 800 millenia. Ostensibly, ocean levels fall during glacial periods (ice ages) and rise during interglacial periods. So, I'm guessing a lot got washed away, and some populations who lived by the shoreline might have been erased, not to mentioned whatever catastrophic flooding occurred.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015RG000482
 
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BWV said:
1 MYA had a homo erectus population spread out across Eurasia, so hard to picture a widespread extinction.
As I understand it, this bottleneck in the population on the African continent as detected up by the new analysis model is not (yet) correlated with any global change that has been picked up by other means or in other populations. Also, it is not clear to me if the new analysis "on purpose" has filtered out genetic "signals" from populations that already had left Africa around that time but later mixed back into the gene pool (e.g. Neanderthals) or not, but I did get away with a clear understanding this analysis only speaks about the African population at around 900k years ago, meaning if remaining global population had no such bottleneck the cause of an African bottleneck likely has to be fairly local.
 
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Filip Larsen said:
As I understand it, this bottleneck in the population on the African continent as detected up by the new analysis model is not (yet) correlated with any global change that has been picked up by other means or in other populations. Also, it is not clear to me if the new analysis "on purpose" has filtered out genetic "signals" from populations that already had left Africa around that time but later mixed back into the gene pool (e.g. Neanderthals) or not, but I did get away with a clear understanding this analysis only speaks about the African population at around 900k years ago, meaning if remaining global population had no such bottleneck the cause of an African bottleneck likely has to be fairly local.
if you define ‘speciation’ as a branch where the new organism can no longer create fertile offspring with the old organism (like donkey and horse) - then perhaps some genetic change made a population of early humans no longer able to breed and create fertile offspring with the rest of the population at that time?
 

FAQ: Population bottleneck 900K years ago

What is a population bottleneck?

A population bottleneck is an event where a significant percentage of a population or species is suddenly reduced, leading to a decrease in genetic diversity. This can be caused by various factors such as environmental disasters, disease outbreaks, or human activities. The surviving population has a much smaller genetic pool, which can affect the species' ability to adapt and survive in the long term.

What evidence supports the occurrence of a population bottleneck 900,000 years ago?

Evidence for a population bottleneck 900,000 years ago comes from genetic studies of modern human DNA. Researchers have identified patterns of genetic variation that suggest a significant reduction in population size during this period. Additionally, fossil records and archaeological findings provide supporting evidence of environmental changes that could have contributed to such a bottleneck.

How did the population bottleneck 900,000 years ago affect human evolution?

The population bottleneck 900,000 years ago likely had a profound impact on human evolution. With a smaller population, genetic drift would have played a larger role, leading to the fixation of certain alleles and the loss of others. This could have accelerated the development of unique traits and adaptations in the surviving population. The bottleneck may have also heightened the importance of social structures and cooperation for survival, influencing the evolution of human behavior and culture.

What were the possible causes of the population bottleneck 900,000 years ago?

The exact causes of the population bottleneck 900,000 years ago are not definitively known, but several hypotheses have been proposed. These include drastic climate changes, such as ice ages or volcanic eruptions, which could have created harsh living conditions and reduced available resources. Additionally, disease outbreaks or competition with other hominid species might have contributed to the population decline.

What are the long-term implications of a population bottleneck for a species?

In the long term, a population bottleneck can have several implications for a species. Reduced genetic diversity can make the population more vulnerable to diseases and environmental changes, as there are fewer genetic variations that might confer resistance or adaptability. It can also lead to inbreeding, which increases the risk of genetic disorders. However, a bottleneck can also result in the rapid evolution of advantageous traits if the surviving population is subjected to strong selective pressures.

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