Probability it came from Bag A

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In summary, the conversation discussed the contents of two bags, A and B, which contain white and green balls. The probability of selecting a white ball was determined to be 11/21 by multiplying the probability of rolling a 1 or 2 with the probability of selecting a white ball from each bag. The probability of a white ball coming from Bag A was then found to be P(A|B) = (5/7)/(11/21).
  • #1
mirandab17
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Bag A contains 5 white balls and 2 green balls. Bag B contains 3 white balls and 4 green
balls. A fair die is rolled and if a 1 or a 2 comes up, a ball is randomly selected from Bag A;
however, if a 3, 4, 5 or 6 comes up, a ball is randomly selected from Bag B.
a) What is the probability of selecting a white ball?
b) If a white ball is selected, what is the probability that this ball came form Bag A?

Alright so a) I figured out. It's 11/21. I got that by multiplying the likelihood of first rolling a one or two (2/6) with the likelihood of getting a white ball in bag a (5/7) and then adding that number to this same process in bag b.

However for part b), for some reason I just can't wrap my head around it. I know that the probability of selecting a white ball is now 11/21, so is this an equation dealing with P(bag a ("given that" line)white ball probability)? Conditional probability? A little lost.
 
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  • #2
Yes it is a conditional probability problem. You can use:

[tex]
P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}
[/tex]

Where A and B are two events.
 
  • #3
You found the chance of getting a white ball from bag a (Ill call it A), and you found the chance of getting a white ball in general (Ill call it B).
I would just divide A by B to get the probability that a white ball comes from bag A.
 

Related to Probability it came from Bag A

1. What is the probability that an item came from Bag A?

The probability that an item came from Bag A depends on the total number of items in Bag A and the total number of items in all bags. If Bag A contains 10 items and there are 100 items in total, then the probability is 10/100 or 0.1.

2. How do you calculate the probability that an item came from Bag A?

To calculate the probability, divide the number of items in Bag A by the total number of items in all bags. This will give you a decimal number, which can be converted to a percentage by multiplying by 100.

3. Can the probability of an item coming from Bag A be higher than 1?

No, the probability of an event cannot be greater than 1. This would imply that the event is certain to occur, which is not possible.

4. What factors can affect the probability that an item came from Bag A?

The probability that an item came from Bag A can be affected by the total number of items in Bag A and in all bags, as well as the method used to select the item from the bags. If the selection is done randomly, then the probability will be more accurate.

5. Is the probability of an item coming from Bag A affected by the contents of the other bags?

Yes, the probability of an item coming from Bag A can be affected by the contents of the other bags. If other bags contain similar items or a large number of items, then the probability may be lower. Similarly, if other bags contain different items or a small number of items, then the probability may be higher.

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