Probability of bridge collapsing

In summary, the probability that exactly one of the three bridges in Dystopia county will collapse in the next year is 0.1536 or 15.36%. This can be calculated by adding the probabilities of each bridge collapsing while the other two do not collapse.
  • #1
Sportsman4920
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Homework Statement



Dystopia county has three bridges. In the next year, the Elder bridge has a 17% chance of collapse, the Younger bridge has a 6% chance of collapse, and the Ancient bridge has a 24% chance of collapse. What is the probability that exactly one of these bridges will collapse in the next year? (Round your answer to four decimal places.)


Homework Equations





The Attempt at a Solution



I thought the answer was the average of the 3 probabilities, which is 15.6666%. Then I realized that it would be the chance that each will collapse, not the chance that exactly one will collapse. However, I'm not sure what equation I need to use in order to find this. We've been using combinations and permutations in class, but I'm not sure if they are relevant for this problem.

Thanks
 
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  • #2


For exactly one bridge to collapse it must be true that the other two bridges don't collapse. So you have:
P(Elder bridge collapses AND Younger bridge doesn't collapse AND Ancient bridge doesn't collapse)
+ P(Elder bridge doesn't collapse AND Younger bridge does collapse AND Ancient bridge doesn't collapse)
+ P(Elder bridge doesn't collapse AND Younger bridge doesn't collapse AND Ancient bridge does collapse)
 
  • #3


Thanks a lot. I had been working on that one for a while.
 

FAQ: Probability of bridge collapsing

What is the probability of a bridge collapsing?

The probability of a bridge collapsing depends on various factors such as its design, construction materials, maintenance, and environmental conditions. It is not possible to give a specific probability without considering these factors.

What are the main causes of bridge collapses?

The main causes of bridge collapses are structural failures, natural disasters such as earthquakes and floods, human error during construction or maintenance, and deterioration due to age and lack of proper maintenance.

How can we calculate the probability of a bridge collapsing?

The probability of a bridge collapsing can be calculated using mathematical models and simulations that take into account the factors mentioned earlier. However, these calculations may not be completely accurate as it is difficult to predict all possible scenarios.

What measures are taken to prevent bridge collapses?

There are strict regulations and safety standards in place for the design, construction, and maintenance of bridges to prevent collapses. Regular inspections, repairs, and maintenance are also crucial in ensuring the safety and stability of bridges.

What should I do if I suspect a bridge is at risk of collapsing?

If you notice any signs of structural damage or instability in a bridge, it is important to report it to the authorities immediately. Avoid using the bridge and follow any safety instructions provided by the authorities until the issue is resolved.

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