Probability of failure question?

In summary, the compressive strength of a concrete specimen with a mean value of 2.8 ksi and a coefficient of variation of 0.1 follows a normal distribution. Given an applied stress of 2.5 ksi, the probability of failure is estimated to be 14.2%.
  • #1
Xinio64
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Homework Statement


"The compressive strength of a concrete specimen follows a normal distribution with a mean value of 2.8 ksi and a coefficient of variation (COV) of 0.1. If the applied stress is 2.5 ksi, find the probability of failure."


Homework Equations


normal distribution formula


The Attempt at a Solution


I got the variance to be .28 ksi but i don't know how to find the probability of failure without knowing the maximum failure stress of the specimen. Can anyone help me out?
 
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  • #2
Xinio64 said:

Homework Statement


"The compressive strength of a concrete specimen follows a normal distribution with a mean value of 2.8 ksi and a coefficient of variation (COV) of 0.1. If the applied stress is 2.5 ksi, find the probability of failure."


Homework Equations


normal distribution formula


The Attempt at a Solution


I got the variance to be .28 ksi but i don't know how to find the probability of failure without knowing the maximum failure stress of the specimen. Can anyone help me out?

Since the applied compressive stress is 2.5ksi you need to calculate the probability that the compressive strength will be below this value. From MS Excel I estimate this should be 14.2%.
 

FAQ: Probability of failure question?

What is the probability of failure?

The probability of failure refers to the likelihood that a particular event or system will not perform as expected or desired. It is typically expressed as a number between 0 and 1, where 0 represents no chance of failure and 1 represents certainty of failure.

How is the probability of failure calculated?

The calculation of probability of failure depends on various factors, such as the specific event or system being analyzed, the available data, and the chosen mathematical model. In general, it involves assessing the likelihood of potential outcomes and determining the ratio of the number of desired outcomes to the total number of possible outcomes.

What is the importance of understanding probability of failure?

Understanding the probability of failure is crucial in making informed decisions about risk management, resource allocation, and contingency planning. By assessing the likelihood of failure, scientists can identify potential weaknesses and take proactive measures to prevent or mitigate failures.

How can the probability of failure be reduced?

The probability of failure can be reduced by implementing measures to improve the reliability and safety of systems, such as conducting thorough testing, implementing quality control processes, and continuously monitoring and evaluating performance. Additionally, having contingency plans in place can help mitigate the impact of potential failures.

Are there any limitations to using probability of failure?

While probability of failure is a useful tool for assessing risk, it is not a perfect predictor of outcomes. It relies on assumptions and simplifications, and there is always a degree of uncertainty involved. It is important for scientists to recognize these limitations and use probability of failure in conjunction with other tools and strategies for managing risk.

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