Probability of selecting two white balls from two bags

In summary, the conversation discusses the process of identifying and calculating the probability of selecting two white balls from three bags. It mentions three independent events - selecting two bags, selecting a ball from one bag, and selecting a ball from the other bag. The probability is calculated for three mutually exclusive cases and then added together to get the final probability. The correct probability for selecting two bags in each case is determined to be ##\frac {1} {{}^3 C_2} = \frac {1}{3}##, resulting in a final answer of ##\frac {29}{72}##.
  • #1
vcsharp2003
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Homework Statement
Three bags contain 2 white and 1 black balls, 3 white and 3 black balls, 6 white and 2 black balls.
Two bags are selected and a ball is drawn from each. Find the probability (a) that both balls are white and (b) that both balls are of same color.
Relevant Equations
P(A and B and C) = P(A) P(B) P(C), if A,B,C are independent events
P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C), if A,B,C are mutually exclusive events
My attempt for part (a) is as given below. I will attempt part (b) after getting part (a) correct.

(a) Based on what is asked, we can identify 3 independent events as follows: (i) select any 2 bags followed by (ii) select a ball from one bag followed by (iii) select a ball from the other bag. Also, we will have 3 mutually exclusive events of selecting any 2 of 3 bags, which are listed as Case 1, Case 2 and Case 3. We find the probability of selecting 2 white balls under each case and then add them up to get probability of selecting a white ball from any of the 2 bags.

Case 1: (2w,1b) and (3w,3b)
Probability of selecting these two bags out of three bags ## =\frac {2} {3}##
$$\text{P(2w1)} = \frac {2}{3} \times \frac {3}{6} \times \frac {2}{3} = \frac {2}{9}$$

Case 2: (2w,1b) and (6w,2b)
Probability of selecting these two bags out of three bags ## =\frac {2} {3}##
$$\text{P(2w2) }= \frac {2}{3} \times \frac {6}{8} \times \frac {2}{3} = \frac {1}{3}$$

Case 3: (3w,3b) and (6w,2b)
Probability of selecting these two bags out of three bags = ##\frac {2} {3}##
$$\text{P(2w3) }= \frac {3}{6} \times \frac {6}{8} \times \frac {2}{3} = \frac {1}{4}$$
$$\therefore \text{P(2w) } = \text{P(2w1) } + \text{P(2w2) } + \text{P(2w3) } = \frac {2}{9} + \frac {1}{3} + \frac {1}{4} = \frac {29}{36}$$
But the answer given in the book for part (a) is ##\frac {29} {72}##.
I am not sure where I have made a mistake.
 
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  • #2
You have 3 disjoint cases for picking the two bags and say that each one has 2/3 probability. That adds up to a lot of probability. You should rethink that.
 
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  • #3
FactChecker said:
You have 3 disjoint cases for picking the two bags and say that each one has 2/3 probability. That adds up to a lot of probability. You should rethink that.
Yes, I made a silly mistake. Thankyou for pointing out my mistake.

The correct way of determining probability of selecting two bags in Case 1 or Case 2 or Case 3 should be ##\frac {1} {{}^3 C_2} = \frac {1}{3}##. Then the answer comes out to be ##\frac {29}{72}##, which matches the answer given in the book.
 
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