Probability of winning a point on serve in tennis

In summary, the conversation discusses the calculation of the probability of point won on oun serve in tennis, using various formulas and factors such as P(no Fault), P(win/no Fault), and P(win/fault). The conversation also mentions a global method for calculating Pwos for a particular player on a particular surface and the importance of players' previous meetings on the same surface in determining the most accurate Pwos for a match. The conversation also touches on a question regarding updating Pwos using point importance, with different formulas used in the book "Prediction of In-Play Tennis" and on betting platform Betfair.
  • #1
Hrant
4
0
Hello, my question about calculating the probability in tennis
I know that to calculate Pwos (probability of point won on oun serve ) for each player the following formula is used...

# P(no Fault) -The probability a player's first serve not faulting

# P(win/no Fault) -The probability a player will win the point if the first
service does not fault

# P(win/fault) -The probability a player will win the point on his second
serve

formula...
P(win) = P(noFault)P(win/noFault) + (1 - P(noFault))P(win/fault)

For an example
P(noFault) = 0,70
P(win/noFault) = 0,64
P(win/fault) = 0,55

P(win) = (0,70 * 0,64) + (1 - 0,70) *0,55 = 0,613

This is a global method for calculating Pwos for a particular player on a particular surface.
I know that to calculate the most correct (Pwos) for two players, in a particular match, on a particular surface,it is necessary that these players used to have personal meetings on the same surface.
please tell me how to use this fact that they used to play each other on this surface?
Sorry for my English
thanks in advance...
 
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  • #2
Hrant said:
Hello, my question about calculating the probability in tennis
I know that to calculate Pwos (probability of point won on oun serve ) for each player the following formula is used...

# P(no Fault) -The probability a player's first serve not faulting

# P(win/no Fault) -The probability a player will win the point if the first
service does not fault

# P(win/fault) -The probability a player will win the point on his second
serve

formula...
P(win) = P(noFault)P(win/noFault) + (1 - P(noFault))P(win/fault)

For an example
P(noFault) = 0,70
P(win/noFault) = 0,64
P(win/fault) = 0,55

P(win) = (0,70 * 0,64) + (1 - 0,70) *0,55 = 0,613

This is a global method for calculating Pwos for a particular player on a particular surface.
I know that to calculate the most correct (Pwos) for two players, in a particular match, on a particular surface,it is necessary that these players used to have personal meetings on the same surface.
please tell me how to use this fact that they used to play each other on this surface?
Sorry for my English
thanks in advance...

Hi Hrant,

Welcome to MHB!

This sounds like a real life problem, rather than a problem from a textbook or course. Am I right? If it's from a textbook, are we missing any additional information?
 
  • #3
hello, I read the book "Prediction of In-Play Tennis" by Michelle Anne Viney. I have a question. this is about "UPDATING THE PWOS USING POINT IMPORTANCE" . the author says that when a player wins his game losing 0 points. his PWOS grows from 600 to 612. this means that the author uses twice the formula " PAwos(n)= PAwos(n-1)+(1-Ip(a,b))×Ɵ" in one game. initial Pwos=600, optimal(Ɵ)=0.005.
but i calculate with betfair and I see that it uses the formula
" PAwos(n)= PAwos(n-1)+(1-Ip(a,b))×Ɵ" just one time in a game , the rest of the time it uses this formula
" PAwos(n)= PAwos(n-1)±Ip(a,b)×Ɵ"
please tell me how to properly update Pwos with betfair?
I know that very few people can answer to this question...
Sorry for my English
I'm very grateful in advance...
 
  • #4

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  • #5
FORMULAS>>>

" PAwos(n)= PAwos(n-1)+(1-Ip(a,b))×Ɵ"

" PAwos(n)= PAwos(n-1)±Ip(a,b)×Ɵ"
 

FAQ: Probability of winning a point on serve in tennis

What is the probability of winning a point on serve in tennis?

The probability of winning a point on serve in tennis depends on a variety of factors, including the skill level of the player, the surface of the court, and the opponent's ability to return the serve. On average, professional players have a 60-70% chance of winning a point on serve.

How is the probability of winning a point on serve calculated?

The probability of winning a point on serve is calculated by dividing the number of points won on serve by the total number of service points played. This number is typically expressed as a percentage.

Does a player's serving style affect their chances of winning a point on serve?

Yes, a player's serving style can have a significant impact on their probability of winning a point on serve. For example, players with a strong and consistent first serve are more likely to win points than those with a weaker serve or a high number of double faults.

Do certain surfaces favor a player's probability of winning a point on serve?

Yes, certain surfaces can favor a player's probability of winning a point on serve. For example, grass surfaces are known to be fast and low-bouncing, which can benefit players with a strong serve. On the other hand, clay surfaces are slower and higher-bouncing, making it more difficult for players to win points on serve.

Can the probability of winning a point on serve change during a match?

Yes, the probability of winning a point on serve can change during a match. Factors such as fatigue, weather conditions, and adjustments made by the opponent can all affect a player's ability to win points on serve. Additionally, players may also change their serving strategy throughout the match, which can impact their probability of winning points on serve.

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