Probability Paradox: One White and One Black Marble

In summary, the conversation discusses a proof involving a bag containing two marbles. With the addition of a white marble, the probability of drawing a white ball is determined to be 2/3, indicating that the bag must have originally contained 2 white balls and 1 black ball. It is also mentioned that there may be a fallacy in the proof.
  • #1
soroban
194
0

I saw this "proof" many years ago.
.I thought you might enjoy it.A bag contains two marbles.
Either can be Black or White.
Determine the colors of the marbles.

Answer: one Black marble and one White marble.[tex]\text{Proof}[/tex]

[tex]\text{There are three equally likely situtations.}[/tex]
. . [tex]\text{The bag contains: }\:BB,\,BW,\,WW.[/tex]

[tex]\text{Add one White marble to the bag.}[/tex][tex]\text{Then we have:}[/tex]

[tex][1]\;P(BBW) \,=\,\tfrac{1}{3}[/tex]
. . [tex]P(W\,|\,BBW) \:=\:\left(\tfrac{1}{3} \right)\left(\tfrac{1}{3} \right) \:=\:\tfrac{1}{9}[/tex]

[tex][2]\;P(BWW) \,=\,\tfrac{1}{3}[/tex]
. . [tex]P(W\,|\,BWW) \:=\:\left(\tfrac{1}{3}\right)\left(\tfrac{2}{3} \right) \:=\:\tfrac{2}{9}[/tex]

[tex][3]\;P(WWW) \,=\,\tfrac{1}{3}[/tex]
. . [tex]P(W\,|\,WWW) \:=\:\left(\tfrac{1}{3}\right)\left(\tfrac{3}{3} \right) \:=\:\tfrac{3}{9}[/tex]

[tex]\text{Hence: }\:P(W) \:=\:\tfrac{1}{9}\,+\,\tfrac{2}{9}\,+\,\tfrac{3}{9} \:=\:\tfrac{6}{9}\:=\:\tfrac{2}{3}[/tex][tex]\text{The probability of drawing a White ball is }\tfrac{2}{3}.[/tex]
. . [tex]\text{The bag }must\text{ contain 2 White balls and 1 Black ball.}[/tex][tex]\text{Therefore, before the White ball was added,}[/tex]
. . [tex]\text{the bag had one White ball and one Black ball.}[/tex]

[tex]\text{Q.E.D.}[/tex]
 
Last edited:
Physics news on Phys.org
  • #2
Are we supposed to point out the fallacy?
 

FAQ: Probability Paradox: One White and One Black Marble

What is the Probability Paradox: One White and One Black Marble?

The Probability Paradox: One White and One Black Marble is a classic probability problem that involves randomly selecting two marbles from a bag containing both white and black marbles. The paradox arises when the probability of selecting one white and one black marble is different from the probability of selecting two of the same color, even though the number of white and black marbles in the bag are equal.

What is the solution to the Probability Paradox?

The solution to the Probability Paradox lies in understanding the concept of conditional probability. The probability of selecting one white and one black marble is different from the probability of selecting two of the same color because the outcomes of the two events are not independent. The probability is affected by the first marble that is selected, making it a conditional probability problem.

How do you calculate the probability of selecting one white and one black marble?

The probability of selecting one white and one black marble can be calculated by dividing the number of ways to select one white and one black marble by the total number of possible outcomes. This can be expressed as P(WB) = (n/n+n-1) where n is the number of marbles in the bag.

Can the Probability Paradox be applied to other scenarios?

Yes, the Probability Paradox can be applied to many other scenarios where the outcome of one event affects the probability of another event. For example, it can be applied to problems involving drawing cards from a deck or selecting balls from an urn.

Why is the Probability Paradox important in the field of science?

The Probability Paradox is important in the field of science because it highlights the importance of understanding conditional probability and how seemingly equal probabilities can actually be different. This can help scientists in making accurate predictions and decisions based on probabilities in various experiments and studies.

Back
Top