Probability question on raffle

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In summary, the probability of the winner being one of the first 10 customers is 0.0956 if the tickets are drawn with replacement. If the tickets are drawn without replacement, the probability of the winner occurring no later than the 99th customer is 0.6337. This can be calculated by taking the probability of not winning (99/100) and multiplying it by itself 98 times, since there are 98 customers before the 99th one. This results in a probability of 0.6337.
  • #1
BrownianMan
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1 (a) A bookstore has a draw for a $25 book certificate. Each customer draws a ticket from a bowl of 100 tickets. Only one of the tickets is a winning ticket and once the certificate is won, the draw is over. If the tickets are drawn with replacement, what is the probability that the winner is one of the first 10 customers?
(b) If the tickets in part (a) are drawn without replacement, what is the probability that the winner occurs no later than the 99th customer?


Any hints on how to get started?
 
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  • #2
The easiest way to do this problem is to calculate the odds the lottery goes on for more then ten rounds and use this to get the probability you want. The odds anyone person does not draw the winning ticket (at any point in the lottery) is 99/100. What are the odds ten people all don't win?
 
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  • #3
For part a) I get 0.0956. Is this right?

For part b) wouldn't the probability that the second person doesn't win be 98/99, since the tickets are drawn without replacement?
 
  • #4
Your first answer is correct. I'm sorry about the second question. You have the right idea for the second problem when you multiply the probibilities lots of terms should cancel.
 

Related to Probability question on raffle

What is a raffle?

A raffle is a type of lottery in which people purchase tickets for a chance to win a prize. The winner is chosen at random from all the tickets sold.

What is the probability of winning in a raffle?

The probability of winning in a raffle depends on the number of tickets sold and the number of prizes being offered. For example, if there are 100 tickets sold and 5 prizes, the probability of winning is 5 out of 100, or 5%.

How do you calculate the probability of winning in a raffle?

To calculate the probability of winning in a raffle, you need to know the total number of tickets sold and the number of prizes being offered. Then, divide the number of prizes by the total number of tickets to get the probability of winning.

Can someone increase their chances of winning in a raffle?

Technically, yes. The more tickets someone buys, the higher their chances of winning. However, this also means spending more money on tickets. Ultimately, the outcome of a raffle is still based on random chance.

Are raffles considered a fair game of probability?

Raffles are generally considered a fair game of probability because the winner is chosen at random and everyone has an equal chance of winning. However, some raffles may have certain restrictions or limitations on who can participate, which could affect the fairness of the game.

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