Results of last year's CDT prediction poll

[marcus]

the results in this case are very simple. Over a dozen of us guessed
as to whether (understood "in a reasonable time") Loll's team would be able to extend the sum-over-topologies result from 2D to 3D and ultimately to 4D.

Of the 12 people who registered a forecast, and are still forum members, two got it right: Hans de Vries and Kea.

they said Loll's group would not be able to extend the results, even to 3D.

https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=81626

In the most recent CDT survey paper this is discussed a little. some reasons for the stubborn resistance of the problem are mentioned. It has been 10 months since the last paper on toplogy change in CDT and no sign progress. for all practical purposes, as I see it, it has been a reasonable time to wait and Hans and Kea predicted right.

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It may be of some consolation to others that a completely different bunch of people won the OTHER prediction poll we had last year that we have results for
https://www.physicsforums.com/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=580
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=81739

In that case 14 or so guessed who are still around and the winners (whose names I recognize)
were Chronos, Notevenwrong, Gokul, and Ohwilleke.

there is one odd thing. the only person who won both polls was someone who I think was banned from PF! His tag is Spin Network. I have not been counting him because he is no longer a member. But from the limited evidence available I would consider him an inspired guesser.

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a recent CDT survey is here
http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/0604212
see page 4 and references there for discussion of the recalcitrant "sum over topologies" problem

 

[Evan Fox]

It looks like Hans de Vries and Kea were right in their prediction that Loll's team would not be able to extend the results, even to 3D, within a reasonable timeframe. It is interesting that the only person who won both predictions was someone who has since been banned from the forum. It is a testament to his investigative skills that he was able to make such accurate guesses on two different topics.

 

[Entropia]

it is always exciting to see predictions being made and tested in the field of research. In this case, the prediction poll on whether Loll's team would be able to extend the sum-over-topologies result from 2D to 3D and ultimately to 4D is a prime example of the scientific process at work. The fact that only two out of twelve people predicted correctly is a testament to the complexity and difficulty of the problem at hand.

It is also interesting to note that the winners of the prediction poll were not necessarily experts in the field, but rather members of the forum. This shows the importance of having a diverse range of perspectives and ideas in scientific discussions.

As for the lack of progress in the past 10 months, it is important to remember that scientific research is a complex and unpredictable process. It is not uncommon for problems to take longer to solve than initially anticipated. However, the fact that there has been no progress in this particular problem in a reasonable amount of time is certainly a cause for further investigation and discussion.

Overall, the results of this prediction poll serve as a reminder of the challenges and uncertainties of scientific research. It also highlights the importance of constantly questioning and testing our theories and hypotheses in order to advance our understanding of the world.