Rethinking infrastructure in flood prone areas

[Astronuc]

In the wake of hurricane Helene, some bridges will have to be redesigned. For automobiles and road vehicles, some increase in elevation may be required, but that is nearly impossible for railroads, which will likely have to use the same ROW and grade.

ASHEVILLE, N.C. — Skepticism spread throughout the railroad community after Hurricane Helene’s devastating once-in-a-generation floods wiped out roadbeds, destroyed bridges, and left most of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee unrecognizable. Some in the industry expressed doubt that CSX and Norfolk Southern would invest the dollars needed to repair widespread damage.

More than 40 miles of CSX’s ex-Clinchfield Railroad between Erwin, Tennessee, and Spartanburg, South Carolina, are gone, including two bridges, and many sections along 50 miles of NS’ ex-Southern S-Line between Marshall and Old Fort, North Carolina, through Asheville are washed away.

But railroads don’t have the choice to not rebuild as they did 40 or 50 years ago. Class I railroads have rationalized their networks to the extent that there is very little redundancy, leaving few efficient alternatives in the event of a catastrophic event like Hurricane Helene.

CSX’s outage on the former Clinchfield is requiring coal, merchandise and bulk trains to detour across the I-64 corridor between Russell, Kentucky, and Richmond, Virginia, and then down the Seaboard into Hamlet, North Carolina, before diverting west toward Charlotte and into the western part of the state. This adds several hundred miles.

Choosing not to rehabilitate the Clinchfield would mean CSX has little through-route connectivity between Knoxville, Tennessee, and Charlotte, a distance of more than 250 miles.

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/railroads-have-no-choice-but-to-rebuild-after-hurricane-helene

NS doesn’t have a choice either. It has already downsized its S-Line as a through route between Morristown, Tennessee, and Salisbury, after trimming operations at its Linwood Yard north of Salisbury. Western North Carolina carloads bound for Watco’s Blue Ridge Southern and NS-served customers in the Asheville region rely on NS trains traversing the Southern from Knoxville east into western North Carolina on the French Broad River. Through trains no longer operate east of Asheville, and south of Asheville, across Saluda Grade, is no longer an option. To preserve rail access to the area, NS has to rebuild in at least one direction from Asheville.

BNSF has to replace the bridge that collapsed in North Sioux City as a result of flooding of the Big Sioux River.
https://www.ktiv.com/2024/09/04/nor...h-replacement-collapsed-bnsf-railroad-bridge/

https://www.bts.gov/geography/geosp...ailway-bridge-north-sioux-city-sd-large-scale


The FreightWaves article mentions hurricane Agnes in 1972. In addition to the Erie Lackawanna, Agness damaged much of the Lehigh Valley Railroad in Pennsylvania, which also declared bankruptcy. Both were absorbed into Conrail, along with the Central of New Jersey, Reading, and PennCentral.

(FW) Hurricane Agnes, which pummeled the Northeast in 1972, caused widespread damage to many smaller and less profitable railroads. Agnes played a contributing role in Erie Lackawana’s decision to file for bankruptcy in 1972 due to significant damage across its network in New York and Pennsylvania. Damage caused by Agnes played a broader role in the government’s intervention and the creation of Conrail, which helped repair and rebuild damaged rail lines.

 

[jedishrfu]

When you mentioned the lack of interest in repairing these tracks, it reminded me of a locally famous RR bridge in upstate New York. Every year there are several truck strikes as truckers don't notice the height limits on the bridge and shave off their roof.

The town keeps fixing the signs and getting the bridge repaired but no one suggests raising the track a few feet higher and so the truck strikes continue.

Maybe it will become a National issue just like the interstate highway system since the freight will have to be moved somehow and the interstate will likely take the hit with increased truck traffic and road repair costs.

 

[Nugatory]

but no one suggests raising the track a few feet higher and so the truck strikes continue.

Raising a railroad bridge by “a few feet” is surprisingly difficult, requires reworking the grade for hundreds of feet on each side of the bridge. Durham North Carolina has the infamous Can Opener, and raising it even eight inches was a major challenge.

 

[Vanadium 50]

While everybody loves trains, one issue is that the track was laid out where it made sense to when it happened. So Buffalo, NY - once one of the largest cities in ths US is well served, but Laas Vegas, presently once one of the largest cities in ths US is not.

And there is no longer a Chatanooga Choo-Choo.

 

[Flyboy]

I think people are making too much of a deal about improvements to infrastructure after Helene. Yes, some stretches of road and rail will need to be completely redesigned to account for new channels carved by the floods.

But this was a 1000 or 2000 year event in the worst hit areas. Redesigning everything in the region to account for another storm and flooding event of this magnitude for anything except the most critical infrastructure like water and major traffic routes would be cost prohibitive.

 

[BWV]

The Ike Dike just got greenlighted (a little). This would protect the Port of Houston and the petrochemical industry from storm surge buy building a retractable barrier between the north tip of Galveston Island and the Bolivar Peninsula (pronounced 'Balliver' if you aint from round here)

Ike Dike project secures initial federal funding, albeit fraction of needed amount​

A recent $500,000 allocation to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will be used for preconstruction engineering and design work on a segment of the Coastal Texas Project, also known as the Ike Dike. The long-planned initiative is expected to take about 20 years to construct and cost an estimated $57 billion.

 

[gmax137]

But this was a 1000 or 2000 year event in the worst hit areas.

Is there a source for this? How is this determined?

Redesigning everything in the region to account for another storm and flooding event of this magnitude for anything except the most critical infrastructure like water and major traffic routes would be cost prohibitive.

I agree, somebody decides how robust the various components of our infrastructure need to be. Who makes those decisions?

 

[Flyboy]

Is there a source for this? How is this determined?

I can't seem to find the original video, but it was a stormwater engineer talking about how they model these kinds of events, and he pulled up a table for one of the towns that got more than 20 inches of rain.

20 inches wasn't even on the chart, it was so far out of the expectations.

I'm still trying to find that video, or the kind of chart he showed, but I'm not having much luck. I'll keep looking, though.

I agree, somebody decides how robust the various components of our infrastructure need to be. Who makes those decisions?

At the end of the day? I think it's whoever foots the bill, for it. How much are they willing to pay for it determines how resilient it is. Sure you can design a road to withstand something of this magnitude, but it's going to be so cost prohibitive that it'd never get built.

To return to the original topic... I think that in areas where you can't design for redundancy, you kinda need to design for ease of repair/replacement. There's only so much you can do to design things like rail grades to withstand flooding like we saw in Appalachia.

 

[Vanadium 50]

The problem with the "1 in 1000 year event" is that if you have 100 places that might experience one, you get them every decade.

Katrina? New Madrid earthquake?

 

[snorkack]

Raising a railroad bridge by “a few feet” is surprisingly difficult, requires reworking the grade for hundreds of feet on each side of the bridge. Durham North Carolina has the infamous Can Opener, and raising it even eight inches was a major challenge.

Because trains are designed for low ruling grades and vertical curvatures. Cars are more tolerant of grades (which is why they are less efficient).
Could it be easier to lower the grade of the road? (Which of course would tend to result in water ponding under the bridge when the drainage is overwhelmed. But a car stuck under a bridge in a pond does less harm to the bridge than the car stuck under the bridge by hitting the bottom of the bridge).

 

[Nugatory]

Could it be easier to lower the grade of the road?

We are moving towards a thread hijack, but if you follow some of the links you will see that the road cannot be lowered - the utility lines underneath the road include drains that depend on being properly sloped. It's the same problem as the rail lines above, except even harder because a train can climb a grade but a storm sewer cannot.

 

[Flyboy]

The problem with the "1 in 1000 year event" is that if you have 100 places that might experience one, you get them every decade.

Katrina? New Madrid earthquake?

Both of those are large-scale disasters. I would argue that the “odds” (for lack of a better word at the moment) are going to be shared across many towns and counties, possibly even to the state level. I highly doubt that one particular town at a time will get a thousand year storm that ignores everyone else nearby.

Besides, it’s a bit of a poor choice of words. It’s not “this happens once in a thousand years”, it’s more of “this has a 1/1000 chance of happening in a given year”.

 

[gmax137]

This is why I asked for the source. The area involved seems very important to understanding what 1000 year flood means.

When I lived in Florida in the early 1990s, we had 24 inches rain in less than 24 hours. I walked home in chest deep water. But it was very localized, like in a 4 mile radius. How does that compare to nearly state wide flooding like seen in NC? I'm wondering if news casts just say "1000 year flood" as ahorthand for "wow!"

 

[phinds]

I'm wondering if news casts just say "1000 year flood" as ahorthand for "wow!"

Or for "now"

 

[russ_watters]

The problem with the "1 in 1000 year event" is that if you have 100 places that might experience one, you get them every decade.

Katrina? New Madrid earthquake?

That's not really a cost-benefit argument, it's a "pay the max and save everywhere" argument.

And the other side of the coin: how long does your infrastructure last? How bad is it really to replace all this old infrastructure (much of which was overdue anyway)?

 

[russ_watters]

Regarding the thousand year flood claim, here's a source:

Weather experts are still sorting through data gathered during Helene. But Corey Davis, an assistant state climatologist, said rainfall figures suggested that Helene was worse than a storm that an existing model predicted would happen once every thousand years.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/04/us/hurricane-helene-asheville-water.html

I think it's reasonable to assume a hurricane is the only way to get a flood of that scale in an inland location like that. So the question of whether the frequency prediction needs to be updated depends on hurricane frequency, intensity and path.

If you're on a southern coastline your odds are higher. Ashville only happened because the storm driven in stopped there.

Looking backwards I can think of Camille in 1969 and Sandy in 2012 as being unusual for inland flooding duration and location.

Katrina was the first of three cat 3 storms to hit the gulf coast that year(strongest at landfall, third strongest peak). But it happened to hit a below sea level city directly.

 

[russ_watters]

Another angle: there's been 27 hurricanes in the past 60 years that caused more than $10B in damage(inflation adjusted). Our population was growing in that time (increasing frequency/damage) but has slowed. I'll guess the average was around $30 B or total $900 B.

 

[gmax137]

Looking backwards I can think of Camille in 1969 and Sandy in 2012 as being unusual for inland flooding duration and location.

Don't forget Agnes!

Weather experts are still sorting through data gathered during Helene. But Corey Davis, an assistant state climatologist, said rainfall figures suggested that Helene was worse than a storm that an existing model predicted would happen once every thousand years.

Well that's something, at least, thanks for the link. I'm still skeptical about hurricane frequency estimates, given the short time covered by our data.

 

[Flyboy]

I'm still skeptical about hurricane frequency estimates, given the short time covered by our data.

Which is an extremely valid point. We have, what, maybe 250 years of semi-accurate data, less than a century of accurate data that can be used for modeling?

 

[russ_watters]

Looks like decent data starts in 1851, but even then the amount and accuracy are both sketchy that far back.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/HURDAT

 

[Vanadium 50]

That's not really a cost-benefit argument

I am not sure I was making a cost-benegit argument. I suspect that in many cases, a cost-benefit argument would suggest building more infrastructure but more cheaply. Build resiliancy through redundancy. I suspect actually implementing it would give our political leaders the vapors.

Stuff breaks. We have a lot or stuff. It's going to break. Are we better off spending twice as much so 1/10 as much breaks? Probably. Spend 10x as much so half as much breaks? Probably not.

The problem is that when things break, our leadership is criticized with "How could you let this happen?" even if the answer is "that's what you voted for."

Let me ask you this - does it make sense for the Midwest US to adopt California-level earthquake standards? After all, the New Madrid could go off tomorrow - or in 10,000 years - or never. And if not, and there is a major earthquake, what should the excuse be? "Golly...what a run of bad luck"?

 

[Astronuc]

We have, what, maybe 250 years of semi-accurate data, less than a century of accurate data that can be used for modeling?

What "Once In A Hundred Years" Really Means​

https://www.almanac.com/real-meaning-once-hundred-years

From time to time, when a major weather event occurs, I see it described as a “once in a hundred years” or even “once in a thousand years” event. But what does this weather phrase really mean?

Weather phrases such as “once in a hundred” years are commonly misunderstood. Usually, this refers to a particular storm that brings heavy rain or snow.

1. How do we know that an event is this extreme?
2. How can we have five “once in a hundred years” events in Texas in less than half a century?

The answer to the first question is that we have excellent precipitation records from about the past 30 years based on rain-gauge, Doppler radar, and satellite measurements. We have pretty good records from about the past 100 years, mostly with rain gauges. Before that, the records are much more speculative, with some data from weather instruments but most of the weather information on individual events coming from personal diaries, with climatological information coming mostly from indirect measurements of things like the thickness of tree rings.

The answer to the second question is more complicated. Instead of imagining a “once in a hundred years” event happening exactly once every 100 years, think about it as having a 1% chance of happening in any given year. And once such an event occurs, the chance of it occurring again in the following year is still 1%.

Very simply, the United States is large enough, with enough different locations and weather events, that an apparent anomaly like the Texas rainfall will occur over 1% of the country each year. This means that events of this nature will happen somewhere in the United States each year, despite the tiny chance of one occurring in any one location. And Texas is a large state with plenty of room for extreme events in different parts of the state.

Because we do not have good weather records going back for more than a century or two, these events may happen more often than we expect.

Perhaps there needs to be a better way of describing 'risk' to folks who are at risk of catastrophic flooding, many of whom in western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee were unprepared for what happened. Should folks have expected such flooding? Warnings were made at least 5 days in advance, but then the heavy rains could have gone more east toward Charlotte, or west more toward eastern Tennessee (e.g., Knoxville, Nashville, . . ) and up into the Ohio River valley. As it was, much of rain fell on the border of Tennessee and North Carolina in the mountains that fed the French Broad and Swannanoa Rivers and their tributaries (many mountain creeks). Mills River is a major tributary of the French Broad River, as is the Swannanona River, which meets the French Broad in Asheville, NE.

The French Broad River is a river in the U.S. states of North Carolina and Tennessee. It flows 218 miles (351 km) from near the town of Rosman in Transylvania County, North Carolina, into Tennessee, where its confluence with the Holston River at Knoxville forms the beginning of the Tennessee River. The river flows through the counties of Transylvania, Buncombe, Henderson, and Madison in North Carolina, and Cocke, Jefferson, Sevier, and Knox in Tennessee. It drains large portions of the Pisgah National Forest and the Cherokee National Forest.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Broad_River

South of Rosman, the stream is joined by the Middle and East forks to form the French Broad River.

From there it flows northeast through the Appalachian Mountains into Henderson, and Buncombe counties. In Buncombe County, the river flows through Asheville where it receives the water of the Swannanoa River. Downstream of Asheville, the river passes north through Marshall and Madison County. After passing through Hot Springs in the Bald Mountains, the river enters Cocke County, Tennessee.

In Cocke County, the river passes through Del Rio and receives the waters of both the Pigeon and the Nolichucky rivers northwest of Newport.

The Nolichucky River also flooded, particularly in Erwin, Tennessee.

By 9am on the 16th, the river had risen to over eighteen feet and then an hour later, the gauge was washed away. The French Broad hit an estimated twenty-four feet while the Swannanoa River likewise crested at over twenty feet. The flood spread, foaming and writhing, to reach almost a mile-wide swath in Asheville.

Asheville, NC had a catastrophic flood in 1916, or 108 years before the current event.

https://climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2015/07/nc-extremes-flood-of-1916-wiped-out-railways-records/


https://www.ashevillehistory.org/july-16-1916-the-great-flood/

Western North Carolina is no stranger to flooding. “Freshets” as these floods were often called, were described by settlers as early as 1791. Larger ones also occurred in 1901, 1902, and again in 1910. Before the area’s industrialization, these innundations were not always entirely destructive. Native Americans and settlers learned to depend on these seasonal alluvial floods that deposited rich silt along river bottoms where they grew crops. Residents along the region’s rivers likely could not have anticipated just how different the flood of 1916 would be.

From 2016 -

100 years after the Flood of 1916, the City of Asheville is ready for the next one​

https://www.ashevillenc.gov/news/10...-city-of-asheville-is-ready-for-the-next-one/

Um - they were not ready this time, not even close.

One hundred years after the Flood of 1916, Asheville collectively wonders, “Can it happen again?”

The answer is yes. And no.

Modern meteorology now gives advance notice of major rain events. “Today FEMA has mapping systems that can predict how much rainfall we are going to get, and which areas are going to be flooded,” said Kelley Klope of the Asheville Fire Department. “The City can help notify people ahead of time through its Everbridge emergency notification system (called Citizens Alert), announcements to local media and messages on our social media channels.”

The answer is yes, and yes, of course! Emergency Alerts work fine until power and cell service go out.

Still, the force of nature continues to impact Asheville with recurring floods. “About every 20 years we have a major flooding event,” Coates noted.

In 2004, virtually the same scenario walloped Asheville when Tropical Storms Ivan and Frances converged upon Western North Carolina, producing the wettest September ever recorded. Again, Ivan came up from the Gulf, followed by Frances for another double tropical storm wallop. Frances alone dropped 23 inches of rain on some parts of WNC. When the storms hit, Asheville’s North Fork Reservoir was full. For safety reasons, some of the water had to be released.

Portions of Biltmore Village flooded 4 feet deep when Tropical Storms Ivan and Frances converged on WNC in September 2004.

Unfortunately, 11 people died in Western North Carolina during the 2004 floods. One hundred forty homes were destroyed, another 16,234 damaged. There was $7 million dollars in damage in a seven-county area. It served as a sobering reminder of what can happen, even today.

In the 1916 Asheville Flood, Eighty (80) people died.

FOX News - The death total in Asheville is at least 72 people and now we're learning one family lost 11 loved ones to landslide during Hurricane Helene.

https://www.foxcarolina.com/2024/10/10/hurricane-helene-kills-11-people-one-asheville-family/

Asheville means the metropolitan area and Buncombe County. The 11 family members who perished lived in Fairview, up stream of Asheville. A landslide occurred

Fox News - Helene disaster exceeds devastation caused by the ‘Great Flood of 1916’ in North Carolina
At least 190 deaths are reported in western North Carolina, which are attributed to Helene, and many are still missing.
https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/helene-flooding-extremen-asheville

Repeat: Perhaps there needs to be a better way of describing 'risk' to folks who are at risk of catastrophic flooding, many of whom in western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee were unprepared for what happened.

Anyone living along the Gulf Coast (from Brownsville, TX to Key West, FL) and along the Atlantic Coast (from Key West to New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, Canada) is at risk. Time will tell if the risk has increased.

One area in which I lived started seeing increased flooding during the mid-1970s. My family had lived there for 4 years when we experienced a first flooding event, in which the water level got to the curb (street flooded). The next year, the water level was halfway across the front lawn. The next year (3rd flood) the water covered the front lawn to the front of the house. In the fourth year, water entered the house, and usually, several times afterward, if we got a prolonged rain event (not even a hurricane).

In a neighboring area, there were three major flooding events with Hurricane Harvey being the 3rd. A friend's sister was told to raise the house by 6 feet or move. She chose to move. The neighborhood where my parents had lived was flooded by 2 to 3 feet; my parents had sold their property/house and the new owner demolished my parents' house and built a large house, which was common in the area. Despite flood mitigation efforts, those neighborhoods still flood.

Hurricane Harvey is cited in the Almanac article:

For example, in 2017, Hurricane Harvey brought exceptional rain amounts to the Houston, Texas, area—including 60.5 inches in the city of Nederland— while 30 inches or more fell on an area near the Texas coast the size of the state of Maryland. The 60.5 inches in Nederland was a record for a single storm in the continental United States that created an unprecedented “once in a thousand years” flood event. No rain event of that magnitude has ever happened in the history of the United States.

My parents' old house was probably in the region that got about 30 inches of rain. Even with half of that, the area houses would flood.

 

[phinds]

No rain event of that magnitude has ever happened in the history of the United States.

Yes, BUT ... the land mass now known as the United States has been around for WAY longer than we have historical records for so I consider that statement to be meaningless, as are many descriptions such as "a thousand year storm".

 

[Vanadium 50]

I do think there is a lot to be said for rethinking what is where if you have to replace it.

In my boyhood, there was a old bridge over some railroad tracks. One day it was condemned - termites were blamed (I did say it was old) and later removed. It was never replaced - the bridge 3/4 miles east was upgraded from 2 to 4 lanes, and the underpass 3/4 miles west was upgraded from (almost) 2 to 4 lanes.

The old bridge linked residential areas; the new one linked residential and commercial areas.

While I personally found this annoying, I have to admit the new arrangement makes a lot more sense.

 

[Flyboy]

Yeah, there’s definitely going to be some rethinking during reconstruction. Things that had been kicked down the road because it would be too disruptive, like replacing an old bridge, are now going to have to happen, or it’s going to be an opportune time to do so while everything else is screwy.

 

[Vanadium 50]

There were just floods, so we are focused on floods. (Not my favotite choice, as many people =- not here of course - adopt a quasi-pagan view of them "Gods angry with humans and technology!")

But these are not the only disasters, not are they the only geographically predictable ones. I mentioned earthquakes. What about heat waves? Wildfires? Volcanoes? Mudslides?

A lot of people want to live in places where there is risk and/or history of disasters. What do we do if, for example, Mauna Loa decides to do a Krakatoa?

 

[Baluncore]

What do we do if, for example, Mauna Loa decides to do a Krakatoa?

We would need to rewrite all the books on the physical properties of basic and acidic magmas.
Luckily, while island-arcs explode, oceanic-spreading flows.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I agree it is unlikely. I do not think it is impossible. I know that the data on what is actually going on under these hot spots is a lot sparser than people would like.

Some years back I was at a supercomputer conference, and was talking to a researcher who looked at seismic waves to try and find volcanic regions. With all the data, she got...three. Yellowstone, Erebus and somewhere in the Pacific.

Figuring out what is going on miles underground is not easy, and "nothing bad has happened yet" is not so reassuring,

 

[Baluncore]

With all the data, she got...three. Yellowstone, Erebus and somewhere in the Pacific.

The Pacific Ocean is diverse. The Aleutian Island chain, and the Solomon Islands, will be acidic = explosive, with steep ash cones. The central spreading zone is basic = free flowing basalts, with gentle slopes.

Figuring out what is going on miles underground is not easy, and "nothing bad has happened yet" is not so reassuring,

You are fearmongering. It is very reassuring.

The most recent lava flow on the surface should be examined for chemistry and depositional structure. That will quickly identify the envelope of volcanic future possibilities.

If the seismic activity is so far underground that a geologist cannot identify the form that some future volcanic (surface) event will take, then it is irrelevant to this and the next generation.

 

[Vanadium 50]

You are fearmongering.

And you are pontificating. I will admit you are better at it than I am.

 

[berkeman]

Fight, fight!

 

[Flyboy]

There were just floods, so we are focused on floods. (Not my favotite choice, as many people =- not here of course - adopt a quasi-pagan view of them "Gods angry with humans and technology!")

But these are not the only disasters, not are they the only geographically predictable ones. I mentioned earthquakes. What about heat waves? Wildfires? Volcanoes? Mudslides?

A lot of people want to live in places where there is risk and/or history of disasters. What do we do if, for example, Mauna Loa decides to do a Krakatoa?

Make it abundantly clear to people moving in what the risks are, and then wash your hands of it. They were warned. If they choose to ignore those warnings, then that’s between them and whatever higher power they believe in.

Re: catastrophic explosion of Mauna Loa: incredibly unlikely given our understanding of that particular volcano. Explosive eruptions can and have happened, as they have on Kiluea in documented history. But something on par with the catastrophic collapse of Krakatoa is, from what I understand, so statistically unlikely as to be a non-issue. It’s certainly possible under the most extraordinary scenario, but if that level of explosivity was present, we probably would have both oral records from the native Hawaiian people and in the geological record.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Make it abundantly clear to people moving in what the risks are, and then wash your hands of it. They were warned. If they choose to ignore those warnings, then that’s between them and whatever higher power they believe in.

The problem is when they are displaced by the mudslides or whatever, the cry goes out "how can you ignore all this suffering!"

In principle, one could require insurance. In practice, finding an underwriter may be impossible. And that provokes the complaint "It's not fair!"

I agree that the risk from Hawaii is low - that's what our best evidence says. I will not agree that it is zero. Furtner, the impact is astronomical, so the expected loss (risk * exposure) may still be substantial. But you don't like that one? Pick another one - I mentioned several.

Finally, there seems to be an idea that a storm that kills 100 people is somehow worse than 50 syorms that each kill 5 people.

 

[Astronuc]

While everybody loves trains, one issue is that the track was laid out where it made sense to when it happened. So Buffalo, NY - once one of the largest cities in ths US is well served, but Laas Vegas, presently once one of the largest cities in ths US is not.

And there is no longer a Chatanooga Choo-Choo.

Buffalo and Las Vegas have Amtrak service. Buffalo has three major Class 1 railroads, CSX, CP (now CPKC) and NS. Las Vegas is on the UP's Chicago to Los Angeles mainline (Nipton, California is a great place watch UP action ).

Chattanooga is planning for Amtrak passenger service on a CSX route between Nashville, Tennessee and Atlanta, Georgia.
https://www.timesfreepress.com/news...working-to-attract-passenger-rail/#/questions

Even with its history of rail, a passenger train hasn't departed from Chattanooga in the history of Amtrak, which started in 1971, but that may change in the coming years as the city has taken steps recently to bring passenger service back.
. . .
The rail service would connect Memphis to Atlanta by way of Nashville and Chattanooga. Smith said Mayor Tim Kelly has been working toward bringing passenger rail service to the city for years.

I assume that Amtrak service will use mostly CSX right of way from Nashville to Atlanta (280 miles). Apparently there is already Amtrak service between Memphis and Nashville.
https://www.commercialappeal.com/st...senger-railway-tennessee-atlanta/73532202007/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nashville–Atlanta_passenger_rail

The goal is to have two round trips per day between Atlanta and Nashville. The route would connect with downtown Nashville, Nashville's airport, Chattanooga and it's airport, and downtown Atlanta.

Of course, Amtrak needs cooperation of CSX.


As for the flooding issue, coastal areas like Miami and Tampa are particularly vulnerable, and some folks who never flooded before are now experiencing flooding, which may be the new normal, even without a hurricane. Some area may see significant flooding several times per decade. Some Tampa neighborhoods that were supposedly in a low risk ('no evacuation required'), now appear to be in flood zones. Part of this is apparent climate change and part due to development such that there is less land available to take increased precipitation.

Back in August, the city of Tampa asked residents to report flooding and damage following rain from Hurricane Debby.
https://www.tampa.gov/news/2024-08/residents-asked-report-flooding-and-damage-properties-153776

Since then hurricanes Helene and Milton have contributed to flooding, more from inland precipitation and less from storm surge.
https://www.wsmv.com/2024/10/11/least-135-residents-rescued-flooded-assisted-living-facility-tampa/

Hurricane Debby (an erratic Cat 1) hit the 'Big Bend' area in Florida, making landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida, early on August 5. The hurricane went to tne NE, back over the Atlantic Ocean before heading up the eastern seaboard.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debby_(2024)#/media/File:Debby_2024_path.png
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debby_(2024)

Hurricane Helene hit roughly the same area, but then turned slightly westward into western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene#/media/File:Helene_2024_path.png

Late on September 26, Helene made landfall at peak intensity in the Big Bend region of Florida, near the city of Perry, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (220 km/h). Helene weakened as it moved quickly inland before degenerating to a post-tropical cyclone over Tennessee on September 27. The storm then stalled over the state before dissipating on September 29.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene

Both hurricanes Debby and Helene flooded the same area in Florida and parts of Georgia. The stalling over the Tennessee-North Carolina border contributed to the catastrophic flooding in that area. Both hurricanes also cause flooding around the Tampa area. In the case of Helene, more than 250 fatalities, with another 206 folks still missing.

The third hurricane, Milton, was much more significant to Tampa and central Florida. Fortunately for Tampa, the eye moved inland south of Tampa near Sarasota. That was not good for those folks around Sarasota and the barrier islands.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Milton#/media/File:Milton_2024_path.png
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Milton

Milton formed from a long-tracked tropical disturbance that originated in the western Caribbean Sea and consolidated in the Bay of Campeche on October 5. Gradual intensification occurred as it slowly moved eastward, becoming a hurricane early on October 7. Later that day, Milton underwent explosive intensification and became a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 180 mph (285 km/h). At peak intensity, it had a pressure of 897 millibars (26.49 inHg), making it the fifth-most intense Atlantic hurricane on record. Milton fluctuated in intensity after an eyewall replacement cycle, re-intensifying into a Category 5 hurricane the following day. Increasing wind shear caused the hurricane to weaken as it turned northeast towards Florida, falling to Category 3 before making landfall near Siesta Key late on October 9. Afterwards, Milton rapidly weakened as it moved across the state into the Atlantic Ocean, and became extratropical on October 10 as it became embedded within a frontal zone. The remnants gradually weakened and passed near the island of Bermuda before dissipating on October 12.

Estimated cost of damage from Helene is ~>$40 billion (2024 USD).
Estimated cost of damage from Milton is ~$30 billion (2024 USD).

I have not heard how much damage from Helene was due to wind and tornado. Most damage in Tennessee and North Carolina was due to severe flooding and more than 300 landslides.

Tornados spawned by Milton and wind caused damage in central Florida, and flooding cause damage as well.

We have another 6 weeks through Nov 30 in Hurricane Season 2024.

Some major events with hurricanes and non-hurricane (tropical storm or thunderstom) flooding events.
https://www.weather.gov/mfl/events_index

Statewide, Florida receives an average (1901-2001) of 54.02 inches of rainfall a year, with the nation (as a whole) averaging 30 inches per year.
The climate of the north and central parts of Florida is humid and subtropical with south Florida being a true tropical climate. There is a defined rainy season from May through October, with Tallahassee (the state’s capital), Miami, West Palm Beach, and Pensacola being some of the rainiest cities in the state averaging 61-65 inches annually.

https://www.floridafloodinsurance.org/flood-history/

The widespread flooding in the Tampa Bay area has necessitated over 1,000 water rescues, with Hillsborough County accounting for more than 700 of these incidents, according to the sheriff's office.

The rescues ranged from assisting a 91-year-old woman trapped in her flooded home near the Alafia River to a large-scale operation involving over 500 residents trapped in their flooded apartment complex in Clearwater.

https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/video-valrico-florida-flood-alafia-river-hurricane-milton

Some folks who had flooding during Milton had not yet recovered from flooding from Helene. Piles of debris were still waiting collection and disposal when Milton crossed through Florida.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/11/us/florida-residents-home-hurricane-milton/index.html

 

[Vanadium 50]

You can get an Amtrak ticket to Vegas. But i's a bus. :(