- #1
consuli
- 62
- 4
According to a survey in 2017, nearly half of the Americans believe, that aliens visit earth.However, I think that a lot of conditions have to be met, so that aliens would visit earth.
First of all, they have to exist.
Meaning
Second, they must find earth
Meaning
Third, they must travel to us
Meaning
Every bullet point mentioned above is already pretty unprobable. When assuming a probability of 1% for each of the eight bullet points above, that would compute a total probability of
1% ^ 8
= 0.01 ^8
= 1 E -16
= 1 / 10^16
Do you agree, roughly?
First of all, they have to exist.
Meaning
- their home planet has to be a habitable planet (but only a very low proportion of planets is habitable at all)
- biological life must be created out of dead chemical elements (like from the elements C, H, N and O on earth)
- their home planet must stay habitable over millions of years
Second, they must find earth
Meaning
- Among a lot electromagnetic backround noise they must pick up one of our electrmagnetic signals
- And they have to search a very very huge universe for us
- And if they find a signal from us, it would be maybe already millions of years old, and we may not exist any more
Third, they must travel to us
Meaning
- They must be capable to travel somewhat light-years to us
- They must be willing to do such exertion journey
Every bullet point mentioned above is already pretty unprobable. When assuming a probability of 1% for each of the eight bullet points above, that would compute a total probability of
1% ^ 8
= 0.01 ^8
= 1 E -16
= 1 / 10^16
Do you agree, roughly?
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